Decision theory

1. Decision Making with Uncertainty,
Foundation and Critical Elements
www.theevansgroupllc.com
Brian Wax

2. Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Physical Evidence
1. Much of today’s evidence supporting our belief systems stand as absolutes. Examples would be our laws of
physics and science as a whole that have determined the following to be correct
a. The earth is round
b. Gravity exists within a closed atmosphere
c. Thousands of examples prove the existence of our physical world
2. The above facts provide a model of technical advancement based on real, measurable and tangible events and
products
3. We develop words and phrases to articulate empirical facts. In fact, we rely on most of the physical world to be
where we exist. We live in homes that can be found through GPS coordinates etc.
4. Our world—earth and beyond are the parameters we live within since we simply cannot leave our planet
without the aforementioned technologies
Human Interaction
5. The self, is how we interact with the external realities—the above facts plus feeling of sensations cold, hot
euphoria and dysphoria, misinterpretation and bad directives. These sensations usually start with a biological
experience that says the temperature is cold, hot, or psychological manifestations of fear, anxiety and
depression
6. It is the melding of the internal processes with biological reactions that produces reactions leading to specific
outcomes/decisions—despite the know elements or factors impinging upon cogent decision making
7. Conclusion: A duality exists that allows us to see how the self interrelates from an external focus (Physical
Evidence) with personal reactions including the spiritual/emotional realm
8. As a result we are subject to all types of input that help us guide the ever increasing technology and complexity
a. Religious, spiritual combined with mandates from management and the need to survive.
9. Pedagogical models/methods teach and tell us how to think. We are subject to marketing and other influences
that drive irrational behaviors
10. If the external self the integrates with internal, community decision making becomes more effective due to
comprehensive awareness, analysis and finally action
System Definition
www.thefreedictionary.com/system

TheFreeDictionary.com
A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements forming a complex whole. 2. A
functionally related group of elements inter-related and interacting creating a higher degree of
function or dysfuntion such as feedback loops
Chip Evans, Ph.D.
www.theevansgroupllc.com

3. Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Systemic External Definition of Self
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Factors influencing
our perception
Religion
Politics
Job expectations
Education
Peers
Adversaries
Marketing of
products
Risk
Reject
External
formulation of
self
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Creation of action
oriented behavior
Rote Response(s)
Do as instructed
Response
according self
Accept
Outcomes, Results and
consequences
Redirect
Community/Team/
System/Organization
External Self
External Self
Integration
External Self
Chip Evans, Ph.D.
Output/
Review
External Self
www.theevansgroupllc.com
Synthesis of
Experience

4. Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
I/We=integration of the internal self (emotional feeling self)
Economics
Inside the integrated self is where the
turbulence is created. It can be a
cacophony of thought in conflict driven
by complexity
Politics
Who are you in relation to all of the
external complexity?
How do you discern any direction? How
do you make sense of things
Relationships
Peer Pressure
Decisions
I/We
Infidelity
Family
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Unrealistic
deadlines
What is best
for the I/we
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Project Plans
Factors influencing
our perception
Religion
Politics
Adversaries
Success
Risk
Community
Relationships
Rethinking how we relate to Community, Ourselves and finally the I/We
Force Field Analysis
Desired
outcome:
{Enter
{Enter status desired
quo here}
outcome
here}
Status quo:
Driving
forces
Restraining
forces
{Enter
{Enter
driving
restraining
forces here} forces here}
Understand
the external
Self
Understand the
relationship between
Ext. Self and
community
Internalize
and filter
Factual
Cause/Effect Analysis
Chip Evans, Ph.D.
www.theevansgroupllc.com
Work through
course of action
Spiritual
Feelings,
morals, social
impact
Optimum Course of Action

5. Decision Making with Uncertainty, Foundation and Critical Elements
Listening to the I/We
1. Mindfulness
a. Sharing
b. Coaching
c. Influencing
Definitions
1.
2.
3.
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6.
Self = The person in the world
“I” =Person/self interrelating with the world
We” = the self in community with others
I/we = the I interrelating creating I/we as seen within the “We”
Iwee, (IWEE) = self seeing the world internally within the community
Best course of action
Chip Evans, Ph.D.
www.theevansgroupllc.com