Debt mutual funds delivered sharply higher returns of 14-18% in the last year due to declining yields on long term debt instruments. However, more recently the weakening rupee has caused NAVs of gilt and income funds to fall, resulting in some negative returns. Going forward, returns are likely to be more subdued as interest rates are unlikely to decline much further in the near term. Investors should scale back expectations to 8.5-10% annual returns from debt funds. Short term income funds may perform better over the next few months compared to gilt and income funds due to their shorter duration exposure.
Meaning of Term Structure of Interest Rates
Significance of Term Structure of Interest Rates
What is Yield Curve?
A spot rate and a forward Rate
Theories of Term Structure of Interest Rates
Meaning of Term Structure of Interest Rates
Significance of Term Structure of Interest Rates
What is Yield Curve?
A spot rate and a forward Rate
Theories of Term Structure of Interest Rates
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is an open access international journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
ICICI Prudential Debt Valuation Index | September 2021iciciprumf
We remain very cautious on duration as the interest rates are expected to remain volatile due to RBI normalizing liquidity conditions and upside risk to inflation due to economic recovery.
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► A look at the Australian Banks
► Will falling interest rates help?
► The big 4 banks analysed
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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“Many different maturities of bond prices tend to appreciate in value with fa...shilendrasharma
“Many different maturities of bond prices tend to appreciate in value with falling rates, but the largest gainers are longer dated bonds, those with more than five years' maturity.”
• Spread sectors continued to rally as investors focused more on opportunities than on risks.
• The Fed maintained its stance, but new questions emerged about how much further influence the central bank can exert.
• With tax rates fixed for the near term, policymakers turned their attention to spending cuts.
• Despite tighter valuations in corporate credit, we foresee continued solid demand and fundamentals.
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) is an open access international journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of business and managemant and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications inbusiness and management. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
ICICI Prudential Debt Valuation Index | September 2021iciciprumf
We remain very cautious on duration as the interest rates are expected to remain volatile due to RBI normalizing liquidity conditions and upside risk to inflation due to economic recovery.
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► A look at the Australian Banks
► Will falling interest rates help?
► The big 4 banks analysed
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
http://invast.com.au/insights
CONNECT WITH INVAST TODAY
Facebook ► https://www.facebook.com/invastglobal
Twitter ► http://twitter.com/InvastGlobal
Linkedin ► http://www.linkedin.com/company/invast
Invast ► http://www.invast.com.au
Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+InvastAu/
“Many different maturities of bond prices tend to appreciate in value with fa...shilendrasharma
“Many different maturities of bond prices tend to appreciate in value with falling rates, but the largest gainers are longer dated bonds, those with more than five years' maturity.”
• Spread sectors continued to rally as investors focused more on opportunities than on risks.
• The Fed maintained its stance, but new questions emerged about how much further influence the central bank can exert.
• With tax rates fixed for the near term, policymakers turned their attention to spending cuts.
• Despite tighter valuations in corporate credit, we foresee continued solid demand and fundamentals.
Managed futures have significantly underperformed broad markets over the past few years. When an asset class disappoints, selling it is always tempting.
But they are still worthwhile.
If anything, this might be an appropriate time to direct more funds into them.
Managed futures give you exposure to future prices of commodities, equities and currencies with the benefit of professional management. This asset class has a low correlation to traditional stocks. So if there’s another stock market crash, manag
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund: An Income Mutual Fund Scheme - Aug 16SBI Mutual Fund
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund is an income fund investing in G-sec, corporate bond and money market instruments. This mutual fund is best suited for investors seeking regular income for a medium term duration. The risk involved in this mutual fund is of moderate level. To know more about this mutual fund check SBI Mutual Fund page https://www.sbimf.com/Products/DebtSchemes/SBI_Dynamic_Bond_Fund.aspx
Stocks Go From Great to Good as the Bull Turns FiveJP Marketing | NE
The end of this week will make it five years since the second most powerful bull market in post-WWII history began [Figure 1]. After five years, only the bull market that began on August 12, 1982 was stronger. It is not over yet. In fact, the bull market may be getting a second wind.
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund : Debt Mutual Fund - Apr 2016SBI Mutual Fund
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund is a fund investing in G-sec, corporate bond and money market instruments. This Dynamic Bond Fund Scheme is best suited for investors seeking investment in Debt, Money Market, Corporate Bonds, Government Securities etc. Find more details about this Debt Fund on https://www.sbimf.com/Products/DebtSchemes/SBI_Dynamic_Bond_Fund.aspx . You can even invest in Mutual Funds online on SBI Mutual Funds.
Hdfc Prudence Fund - What a successful journey so far...Pradip Chinnakonda
One of my favourite Fund, a fund managed by Shri Prashant Jain who has brought laurels to HDFC AMC and himself. The dividend yield consistency is so good that we have started recommending this fund as a pension fund. A fund which all investor should have in their portfolio.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Yes of course, you can easily start mining pi network coin today and sell to legit pi vendors in the United States.
Here the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network #pi coins #legit #passive income
#US
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Debt mutual funds - Is the time of super returns over for the time being?
1. Retail Research 1
Debt Mutual Funds – Is the time of super returns over for the time being? July 13, 2013
Debt mutual funds delivered sharply higher returns close to 14-18% (absolute returns) in the last one year period all thanks to the sharp
decline in the yields of long term debt instruments. The bond markets witnessed a significant rally between Mar 13 and May 13 on the
back of rate cuts and rate cut hopes, with the yields of 10 Year G sec benchmark fallen to 45 month low of 7.11% on May 23, 2013.
However, later weakening of the rupee against the dollar resulted in the NAVs of Gilt and Income funds falling, with the result that these
funds posted negative returns close to 1-2% in the last one month period.
Performance of Debt Categories:
Category 3 Month 6 Month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year
03 Apr 2012
To 24 May
2013 Absolute
03 Apr 2012
To 09 Jul 2013
Absolute
Standard
Deviation
Dynamic Income Funds 2.51 4.54 10.48 9.85 8.69 14.52 13.31 0.11
Gilt Funds - Medium & Long Term 3.76 5.63 11.94 10.58 8.51 17.14 15.79 0.16
Gilt Funds - Short term 2.59 4.85 9.83 9.16 7.80 13.45 13.10 0.11
Income Funds - All 2.40 4.42 10.30 9.98 8.68 14.34 13.43 0.11
Short Term Income Funds 2.15 4.34 9.39 9.39 8.49 11.89 12.27 0.05
Note: NAV values as on 9th
July 2013.
We have chosen the dates for the following reasons. During April 03, 2012, the yields of 10 Yr G sec benchmark witnessed its last peak
of close to 8.74% given in the last 18 months period. On May 23, 2013, the yields of 10 Year G sec benchmark saw a 45 month low of
7.11%. July 09, 2013 is the latest date that we have chosen for our study wherein the yields of 10 Year benchmark was at 7.55%.
The above table portrays that Gilt funds generated close to 17% absolute returns while the Income and Dynamic Income funds posted
close to 14% returns during the bond market rally that witnessed between April 2012 and May 2013. However these gains were cut if
the period of analysis is extended to July 09, 2013 (due to the weakness in the rupee value against the dollar and the resultant sell-off
in bond markets).
For similar large returns to recur the interest rates have to slide further from here. But it seems difficult in the near term. The returns
from the gilts and Income funds are likely to be subdued due to the hardening bond yields following the rupee weakness. If the rupee
starts to appreciate then the 10 Year G sec yields could fall gradually. However, there may not be a repeat of FY13 kind of returns.
Investors could do well to scale back their expectations of returns to the 2 and 3 year returns of 8.5-10% p.a. from now on.
Risks of gradual rise in G sec yields remain going forward. The probability of low or negative returns in gilt and income fund in some
months is also possible - may be till next general elections. So investors should not look into the past performance while investing in
long term debt mutual funds. The performance of the debt funds would be purely based on the movement in the interest rates. The
market gain can disappear if the rates begin to increase.
In general, Fund managers get returns from
1) Trading in instruments to ride on expected volatility which is more prevalent when yields are trading in a band and
2) Persistent fall in yields that lead to MTM gains.
In the next few quarters it seems that trading profits could get offset by MTM losses due to intermittent rise in yields leading to subdued
performance by Debt Mutual funds.
Liquid, Ultra Short Term and Short Term Income funds (and to some extent Dynamic Income funds) could be the preferred choice over
the next few months given the fact that liquidity condition in the banking system is seen improving in the last few days on the back of
government spending and is expected to be easy going forward on the back of credit growth being slower than deposit growth in the
banking channel.
Credit growth being slower than deposit growth in the banking channel:
11
14
17
20
23
26
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Deposit Grow th Credit Grow th
2. Retail Research 2
All eyes are on plunging of Rupee against the dollar. The rupee hit all-time low of 61.21 on 7th July 2013. The returns from the gilts and
Income funds are likely to be subdued due to the hardening bond yields following the rupee plunge.
If the rupee starts to appreciate then the 10 Year G sec yields could fall gradually. At present, the 10-year G-sec yield is hovering in the
range of 7.5% level. Given the moderation in the inflation, even though the RBI is willing to shift its stance from anti inflation to pro
growth, further rate cut is unlikely in the near term as the rupee could take time to rise sustainably against the dollar. Dollar has been
strongest among major currencies at this point of time (as reflected by the Dollar index) as the US economy is showing signs of steady
growth hence the strength in the USD is likely to continue.
From the above, one can assume that the RBI is unlikely to cut policy rates by more than only 25 to 50 bps in 2013-14 and that too
earliest in Q3FY14 and the central bank to maintain status quo in the forthcoming policy meeting scheduled in July 30, 2013.
Conclusion:
Hence, short term income funds that are managed with 2-3 years Average Maturity may be the right bet in the current scenario for any
kind of investors while the investors who wish to stay investing for more than 18 months or two years or more can consider Income
funds, Dynamic Income funds and Gilt funds (although with reduced expectations). Selective Dynamic funds which are managed
actively can be suitable for medium risk appetite investors for medium term say for one year period as these funds are flexible to
manage duration and choose between corporate and government bonds. Investors those who do not want MTM risk can choose Ultra
Short term funds as they are low risk low return products.
10 Year G sec yields Vs. WPI Inflation & Repo Rate: Clear correlation seen among these three
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
5
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
10WP I R epo R ate 10 Y (R H S)
USD/INR Vs. 10 Year Gsec Yield:
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
USD/INR
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
10YrGsecyields
USD/INR 10 Year G SecYields (RHS)
Average Maturity:
The Average maturity chart below reveals that despite persistent moderation seen in WPI, the debt mutual funds cut their Average
Maturity in March 2013 due to profit booking. Investors booked their MTM gains from debt categories across the board given the
skepticism/doubt over the fall of G sec yields below 7.50% range. However, Mutual Funds increased their portfolio duration during April
3. Retail Research 3
2013 and cut again in May month as the inflation numbers remained stubborn. Weakness in Rupee against the dollar also weighed on
the market sentiments.
Average Maturity (monthly) of Debt fund categories:
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Gilt - LT Short Term Income Income - All Dynamic Income
Corporate Spread:
The below chart shows that the fall in spread of AAA corporate bonds vs. Gilts in December 2012 led to MTM gains for debt mutual
funds. Between December 12 and March 13, as the spread started to rise, the mutual funds increased their exposure to the corporate
papers, but with reduced duration.
Playing on Corporate Spreads: AAA corporate bonds vs. Gilts
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
7
8
91 Year AAA 5 Year AAA
10 Year AAA 10 Y Yield (%) (RHS)
Allocation into Government securities by debt categories over periods:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
G sec holding by Dynamic Income G sec holding by Income funds - All
G sec holding by Short Term Income 10 Yr Gsec Yield (RHS)
G sec holding rose consistently during the period from Feb 12 to Dec 12 but sharply came off in Mar 13.
4. Retail Research 4
Allocation into Corporate debts by Debt categories over periods:
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
7.0
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.6
9.0
Corp debt holding by Income funds - All Corp debt holding by Dynamic Income
Corp debt holding by Short Term Income 10 Yr Gsec Yield (RHS)
Among the debt categories chosen Short term income funds witnessed gradual increase in the allocation into corporate debt. As per the
latest data (May 2013) the Average Maturity of the Short term Income category was at 56 months.
Analyst: Dhuraivel Gunasekaran (dhuraivel.gunasekaran@hdfcsec.com)
RETAIL RESEARCH Fax: (022) 3075 3435
Corporate Office: HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building –B, ”Alpha”, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton
Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Fax: (022) 30753435 Website: www.hdfcsec.com
Disclaimer: Mutual Funds investments are subject to risk. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. This document has been prepared
by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made
available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is
from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to
time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or
other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for non-Institutional Clients.