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1. PERSCONTACT –
02/10/2012
PRODUCTIEDALING IN 2012, VOLGEND JAAR HOOGSTENS
EEN BEPERKTE HEROPLEVING IN TECHNOLOGIESECTOREN
2. Sectoren van de technologische industrie
Metalen & materialen Umicore, Bekaert, Aleris, Nyrstar, Aurubis, Betafence, Magotteaux, TI Group Automotive, Lamifil, ...
Metaalverwerking CMI, Crown, Galva Power, Carwall, Geldof Metaalconstructie, Greif, Parts & components, …
Kunststoffen Samsonite, Terumo, Baxter, Dymo, Kautex-Textron, Pentair, Plastic Omnium Automotive, Esselte, Helvoet, …
Mechatronica Caterpillar, Atlas Copco, CNH Belgium, Alstom Belgium, Zf Wind Power, Hansen Industrial Transmissions , Spicer off
highway, Picanol, Michel van de Wiele, LVD, ...
Elektrotechniek Philips , Siemens, Duracell Batteries, CG Power systems, Kabelwerk Eupen, Nexans, Etap, Schneider Electric, Ion Beam
Applications, Niko. ...
ICT Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Alcatel-Lucent Bell, Barco, Atos Worldline , RealDolmen, Tyco Electronics, Cisco Systems, EVS
Broadcast Equipment, Zetes, LMS international , Option, Econocom, …
Automobiel Ford, Volvo Cars, Van Hool, Volvo Group , Toyota Motor Europe, Daf Trucks, Audi, Robert Bosch, Tenneco, Valeo Vision,
AW Europe, Honda Europe, Continental Automotive, VCST, Bosal ...
Lucht & ruimtevaart Sonaca, Techspace Aéro, Sabca, Asco, Thalès Alenia Space ...
Veiligheid & defensie FN Herstal, Mécar, Cassidian Belgium, Forges de Zeebrugge, OIP,…
Contracting & maintenance Fabricom, Cegelec, Spie, Stork MEC, TMS Industrial Services, Maintenance Partners …
Industriële automatisering ABB, Intrion , Emerson Process Management, BEP-Europe, …
Bouwproducten Daikin, Kone, Schindler, Jaga, Reynaers Aluminium, Rettig, ACV, Vasco, Sicli, Somati, Renson, TDS,…
Montage & kranen Sarens, BIS ROB Montagebedrijf, Aertsen Kranen, Vermeesen Montage, Pirard Industries, …
Werkgelegenheid j2012 275.000
2
3. Thema's
• Conjunctuur
– 1 sem 2012
– Vooruitzichten
• Rentabiliteit
• Conclusies
w w w. a g o r i a . b e
w w w. a g o r i a . b e
4. Industriële omzet van technologische industrie (2008 = 100)
5e kwartaal op rij zonder 140
groei 130
Grosso modo terug op het 120
niveau van 2008 110
100
90
80
70
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
6. Lichte terugval in eerste semester
Stopzetting van activiteiten in de sector Metalen en materialen
Metaalbewerking: groei is het gevolg van afwerking van bestellingen en
projecten groene energie
Mechatronica: lichte groei maar sterk verschillend naargelang van de
deelsector
ICT: goede prestaties “Imaging” (Barco, EVS, ..) en toelevering
automotive, matige groei in ICT-services
Automobiel:
❙ Groei bij Audi maar lichte terugval bij Volvo Cars en Ford onder invloed
van de conjunctuur en de modellencyclus,
❙ Vrachtwagens: bevredigend gelet op slechte conjunctuur
Luchtvaart: blijft een structurele groeisector
Producten voor bouw en woning: moeilijke binnenlandse markt
gecombineerd met dalende export
6
7. Verloop van export van technologische industrie sinds begin van
crisis (2008 = 100):
150
200 Export buiten EU Export EU
175
125
150
125 100
100
75
75
50 50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Groeilanden (BRIC, Turkije, Indonesië,…)
USA & Japan Buurlanden en Noord-Europa Zuid-Europa
Rest van de wereld
Bron : NBB
7
8. Groei export van technologische industrie valt stil
Europese Unie: duidelijke terugval vanaf 2de trimester ook in
sterke Eurolanden
Groei van de export buiten Europa valt bijna stil in 2de
trimester
Verdere groeivertraging van de wereldhandel in het derde
trimester verwacht
8
11. Toename van de investeringen in de technologische industrie
Mln. EUR
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Industriele activiteiten zonder auto Automobiel
* Vooruitzichten
Bron: 2000-2010: btw; 2011: enquête NBB-Agoria, mei 2012
11
12. Thema's
• Conjunctuur en werkgelegenheid
– 1 sem 2012
– Vooruitzichten
• Rentabiliteit
• Conclusies
w w w. a g o r i a . b e
w w w. a g o r i a . b e
14. Werkgelegenheidsvooruitzichten vallen sterk terug in augustus en september
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Afgevlakte reeks Brutoreeks
Bron: NBB
14
15. Resultaten Quick Poll Agoria: 2de semester 2012
Omzet : 46% van de ondernemingen verwacht een terugval in het 2de
semester, 24% een stabilisatie en 30% groei
Werkgelegenheid: 27% ziet een daling, slechts 20% verwacht een stijging
Omzet Werkgelegenheid
Daling = Stijging Daling = Stijging
Productieactiviteiten 51% 22% 26% 32% 51% 17%
ICT, Industrial automation,
33% 29% 39% 13% 61% 26%
Contracting and Maintenance
Totaal technologische Industrie 46% 24% 30% 26% 54% 20%
15
16. Activiteit blijft zwak in 2e semester
Internationale groeivertraging blijft wegen op bestellingen
(mijnbouw, landbouw, bouwmarkt, bedrijfsinvesteringen)
Problemen in de eurozone blijven onopgelost
❙ Ondernemersvertrouwen in Duitsland blijft dalen
❙ Zuid-Europese landen nog niet hersteld
Dalende autoverkoop in Europa
Investeringen in elektriciteitsproductie en energie-efficiëntie
vallen stil
Moeilijker kredietverlening weegt op investeringen van
KMO’s en de vraag naar machines
16
17. Resultaten Quick Poll Agoria : Komt er een herleving in 2013 ?
45% verwacht geen heropleving maar ook geen verdere daling
30% ziet een heropleving
25% een verdere terugval
Forse Matige Stabilisatie Matige Forse
herleving herleving daling daling
Productieactiviteiten 1,6% 25,1% 45,9% 20,2% 7,1%
ICT, Industrial
automation, Contracting 1,3% 36,7% 43,0% 15,2% 3,8%
and Maintenance
Totaal technologische
1,5% 28,6% 45,0% 18,7% 6,1%
industrie
17
18. 2012 wordt een slecht jaar
2012 :
❙ Agoria verwacht een daling van de productie met +/- 2,5 %
❙ Werkgelegenheid krimpt met +/- 6750 jobs.
❙ Tijdelijke werkloosheid stijgt tot +/- 5,5%
❙ Investeringen blijven relatief hoog en nieuwe projecten werden
aangekondigd
2013 :
❙ Hoogstens een beperkte heropleving
❙ Competitiviteitsverlies en lagere groei van de wereldeconomie
zorgen voor beperkte groei in de daaropvolgende jaren
18
19. Thema's
• Conjunctuur:
• Rentabiliteit
• Conclusies
w w w. a g o r i a . b e
w w w. a g o r i a . b e
20. Steekproef 2011
Lidbedrijven die elk jaar in de periode 2006-2011 volledige
rekeningen hebben neergelegd
717 ondernemingen
144 313 werknemers
20
22. 2011: Ondanks omzetrecord geen verdere verbetering van rendabiliteit
Omzet stijgt in 2011 met 9,6% tot niveau van voor de
crisis
Rendabiliteit verbetert niet:
1. Brutoverkoopmarge daalt ondanks de omzetstijging
❙ Beperkte stijging van de verkoopprijzen
❙ Aankopen van onderdelen, grondstoffen en diensten
nemen toe:
❙ Staalprijzenstijgen met 12%, gasprijzen met 15%
❙ Aanvullen voorraden
❙ Toenemende outsourcing, interim, …
2. Looncompetitiviteit herstelt maar onvoldoende
3. Belastingdruk neemt toe
22
23. Rendabiliteit blijft ver onder die van Duitsland
EBIT-marge in 2010
EBITDA -marge in 2010 ROCE in 2010
Marge EBIT en 2010
EBITDA in ROCE en 2010
8,0% 5,0%
7,0% 14,0%
6,0% 4,0% 12,0%
5,0% 3,0% 10,0%
4,0% 8,0%
3,0% 2,0% 6,0%
2,0%
1,0% 4,0%
1,0%
2,0%
0,0% 0,0%
BE DE NL FR 0,0%
DE Nl BE FR
DE FR BE
Bron/source : Prof. J. Konings & Vanormelingen
23
24. Looncompetitiviteit herstelt maar onvoldoende
Het loonaandeel in toegevoegde Mediaan in % van de toegevoegde waarde
waarde loopt voor het tweede 85%
jaar terug, maar ligt nog boven
het niveau van voor de crisis 79,3%
80% 77,9% 78,0%
2012: loonaandeel stijgt opnieuw 76,6%
Omzet daalt opnieuw 74,8% 75,0%
75% 73,7%
Indexering doet loonkosten
per uur toenemen met 3,1%
70%
Aandeel van de niet-
productiegebonden
loonkosten (o.a. voor R&D) 65%
neemt toe
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
24
26. Werkelijk betaalde vennootschapsbelasting stijgt
2010 2011
Resultaat voor belastingen 3.604 3.623
Belastingen op resultaat van het boekjaar 638 655
Gemiddeld impliciet belastingpercentage 17,70 18,09
Mediaan impliciet belastingpercentage 23,62 24,65
Resultaat voor belastingen van de winstgevende ondernemingen is stabiel
in 2011
Belastingen op het resultaat van het boekjaar stijgt met 2,7%.
Daardoor stijgt het gemiddeld belastingpercentage van 17,70% in 2010
tot 18,09% in 2011.
Het mediane belastingpercentage stijgt van 23,6% tot 24,7%
Verdere stijging in 2012 tot +/- 27% verwacht als gevolg van de
regeringsmaatregelen inzake notionele intrestaftrek , vooral ten gevolge
van de beperking van de overdraagbaarheid
26
27. Vennootschapsbelasting in 2010 in Belgische technologiesector
hoger dan in buurlanden
Bron : Prof. J. Konings & Vanormelingen
27
28. Impact van crisis op financiering van de ondernemingen
Volume handelskrediet daalt i.v.m. voor de crisis: klanten betalen
gemiddeld 7 dagen sneller, leveranciers worden gemiddeld 11 dagen
sneller betaald
Bankfinanciering daalt :
❙- 40% in vergelijking met het plafond van 2008 (d.i. 1,7 mrd euro)
❙ 8% van de ondernemingen maakt geen gebruik meer van
bankleningen
Conclusie: bankkrediet verliest aan belang als financieringsbron,
goede alternatieven welkom:
❙ Directe toegang tot de spaarmarkt ook voor minder grote bedrijven, project
bonds, closed-end funds,…
❙ Exportfinanciering : relanceplan uitvoeren: toegang tot financiering en
verzekeringsmechanismen voor exportbedrijven vereenvoudigen
❙ Douaneprocedures moderniseren en vereenvoudigen: een compleet
actieplan wordt opgesteld,
28
29. Conclusies
Crisis in de eurozone weegt zwaar op productie en werkgelegenheid
Groeimotor van export buiten EU, belangrijk element van de
heropleving in 2011, valt stil door wereldwijde conjunctuurvertraging
Ondernemingen blijven verder investeren: aankondiging van
investeringsprojecten en nieuwe activiteiten dicht bij onderzoekscentra
Rentabiliteit verslechtert door:
❙ stijging van energie- en staalprijzen
❙ hoge inflatie en de daarmee gepaard gaande indexering,
❙ verhoging van de belastingdruk op investerende ondernemingen door de
opschorting van de overdraagbaarheid van de notionele intrestaftrek
29