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A/B Testing
If data can help win elections, what
can it help you do for your business?
Dan Siroker
Co-Founder & CEO
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
’09
’10
‘05
‘06
‘07
‘08
’09
’10
Millions

$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
2010 Q2
Q1

Q3

Q4

2011
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 2012
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4
Millions

$7

Team: 4
Customers: 644
Annual Run Rate: $0.1m

$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1

Dan

Pete

Eric

$0
2010 Q2
Q1

Elliot

Q3

Q4

2011
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 2012
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4
Millions

$7

Team: 10 (+150%)
Customers: 1,508 (+134%)
Annual Run Rate: $1.2m(+982%)

$6
$5
$4
$3
$2

Julio

Ryan M

$1

Ricky

Meng Xiao

Dan
Mat
Jeff P
Pete

Eric

$0
2010 Q2
Q1

Elliot

Q3

Q4

2011
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 2012
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4
Millions

$7

Team: 42 (+320%)
Customers: 3,460 (+129%)
Annual Run Rate: $7.6m (+533%)

$6
$5

Steve
Tyle
Jeff Z
Arthu
Amina
Greg
Sandy

$4

Brendan

Sophie

Dogan

Sonesh

Shanann
Tommy

$3

Dan G

Cara
Byron

Mik
Alan

Eddie

Jodie

$2

Dae-Ho
Cyrus
Julio

Ryan M

$1

Lauren
Ashley

Ricky

Meng Xiao

Dan
Mat

Cristian
Travis

Jeff P
Pete

Eric

$0
2010 Q2
Q1

Elliot
Katy

Q3

Q4

2011
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 2012
Q1

Q2

Q3
Ryan L

Ian

Jonathan

Q4

Joanna

Jon
Millions

$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
2010 Q2
Q1

Q3

Q4

2011
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4 2012
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4
Millions

$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
2010
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2011
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2012
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4
Millions

$28
$27
$26
$25
$24
$23
$22
$21
$20
$19
$18
$17
$16
$15
$14
$13
$12
$11
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0

2010 Q2
Q1

Q3

Q4 2011 Q2
Q1

Q3

Actual

Q4 2012 Q2
Q1

Projection

Q3

Q4 2013 Q2
Q1

Q3

Q4
Millions

$28
$27
$26
$25
$24
$23
$22
$21
$20
$19
$18
$17
$16
$15
$14
$13
$12
$11
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0

Steve

Team: 42

Tyle
Jeff Z
Arthu
Amina
Greg
Sophie
Dogan

Cara

Alan

Dan G

Shanann

Byron

Eddie
Sandy

Dae-Ho
Cyrus

Sonesh
Brendan

Cristian

Mik
Ricky

Dan

Pete

Eric

2010 Q2
Q1

Elliot

Q3

Jeff P

Lauren

Ashley

Tommy

Ryan M
Jodie
Mat

Meng Xiao

Julio

Katy

Travis

Jonathan

Q4 2011 Q2
Q1

Q3

Actual

Q4 2012 Q2
Q1

Projection

Ryan L

Q3

Q4 2013 Q2
Joanna
Q1

Ian
Jon

Q3

Q4
Millions

$28
$27
$26
$25
$24
$23
$22
$21
$20
$19
$18
$17
$16
$15
$14
$13
$12
$11
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0

Steve

Steve

Team: 130 (+210%)

Tyle

Marius

Adam

Bo

Evan

Junan

Ash

Grace

Anshu

Lucas

Benson

Bryce

Darwish

Jeff Z
Arthu

David

Jaron

Richar Tammie Khattaab Laura

Asia
Amanda

Amina

Pamela
Brian

Greg

Nikhil
Martjin

Sophie
Amelia

Dogan

Gary

Marco Natarajan

Ben
Kasra

Katie

Andrea

Daniel

SG

Dae-Ho

Omari

Andy

Eric

Andy

Mustafa

Ranjit

Chris Waylon

Pedro

Bradley

Neha

Lauren

Adrian

Chrix

Cristian

Mik
Ricky

Robin

Dan

Pete

Eric

2010 Q2
Q1

Elliot

Q3

Jeff P

Ashley

Tommy

Ryan M

Mat

Julio

Katy

Travis
Lisa

Jamie

Jonathan

Q4 2011 Q2
Q1

Q3

Actual

Q4 2012 Q2
Q1

Projection

Nick

Miyo

Jodie
Meng Xiao

Ryan L

Q3

Becca

Oren

Cyrus
Brendan

Megan

Byron

Eddie

Sonesh

Hemant

Shanann

Brett

Sandy

Ryan
Michael

James Etienne

Alan

Lacy

Dan G
Luke

Cara

Westly

Aaron

Adam

Q4 2013 Q2
Helen
Joanna
Q1
Jen

Ian
Jon

Nick

Fabian

Saum

Courtney Dan

Yonat

Kent

Ural

Eduar

Toby
Oliver

Grant

Q3

Cate

Christop

Julia
Q4

Danielle
Tai

Jonathan

Chris

Chris
Rama
How?
Limited Life Experience
Limited Life Experience
+
Overgeneralization
Limited Life Experience
+
Overgeneralization
=
Advice
-Paul Buchheit
Lesson #1:
Define success.
Lesson #1:
Define

success

.
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.
visitors
per day

Visit

sign up
rate

$ per recipient

Email

$
visitors
per day

Visit

sign up
rate

$ per recipient

Email

$
Media
Button
Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button:
1.

Sign Up

Media:
1.

Get Involved Image

2. Learn More

2. Family Image

3. Join Us Now

3. Change Image

4. Sign Up Now

4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Button: “Sign Up”
Button: “Learn More”
Button: “Join Us Now”
Button: “Sign Up Now”
Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button:
1.

Sign Up

Media:
1.

Get Involved Image

2. Learn More

2. Family Image

3. Join Us Now

3. Change Image

4. Sign Up Now

4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Media: “Get Involved”
Media: “Family”
Media: “Change”
Media: “Barack’s Video”
Media: “Springfield Video”
Media: “Sam’s Video”
Splash page experiment
Variations:
Button:
1.

Sign Up

Media:
1.

Get Involved Image

2. Learn More

2. Family Image

3. Join Us Now

3. Change Image

4. Sign Up Now

4. Barack’s Video
5. Springfield Video
6. Sam’s Video
Splash page experiment
Splash page experiment
Splash page experiment
Splash page experiment
Email
Volunteers
Subscriptions
712,000

Amount
Raised

Original:

7,120,000

$143,000,000

+40.6%

+2,880,000

+288,000 +$57,000,000

New:

10,000,000

1,000,000 $200,000,000
Splash page experiment
Email
Volunteers
Subscriptions
712,000

Amount
Raised

Original:

7,120,000

$143,000,000

+40.6%

+2,880,000

+288,000 +$57,000,000

New:

10,000,000

1,000,000 $200,000,000
Splash page experiment
Email
Volunteers
Subscriptions
712,000

Amount
Raised

Original:

7,120,000

$143,000,000

+40.6%

+2,880,000

+288,000 +$57,000,000

New:

10,000,000

1,000,000 $200,000,000
Lesson #1:
Define quantifiable success metrics.
Lesson #2:
Less is more. Reduce choices.
vs.
+15% conversion rate
+10% $ per visitor
vs.

+20% submissions
vs.
+16.8%
$ per visitor
vs.

+43.8% purchases
Lesson #2:
Less is more. Reduce choices.
Lesson #3:
Words matter. Focus on your call to action.
Donation button experiment
Variations
Donation button experiment
Variations

Never
Signed Up

Signed Up,
Never Donated

Previously
Donated

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

+2.3%

+27.8%

+16.3%

-27.8%

N/A

N/A

+15.2%

-24.6%

+11.9%

+8.5%

+2.9%

+18.4%
vs.
+14.6% clicks
vs.

+15.75%
$ per
visitor
Lesson #3:
Words matter. Focus on your call to action.
Lesson #4:
Seek the global maximum.
Source: http://blog.intercom.io/criticism-and-two-way-streets/
vs.
Source: http://blog.netflix.com/2011/06/new-look-and-feel-for-netflix-website.html
vs.

+0.5% retention
+1.4% engagement
vs.
+600%
engagement
vs.

+49% conversion rate
from 240 A/B tests
Lesson #4:
Seek the global maximum.
Lesson #5:
Start today.
Source: http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/10/optimizely-series-a/
Source: http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/10/optimizely-series-a/
5,000+ Happy Customers!
Lesson #5:
Start today.
Lessons Learned
1.

Define quantifiable success metrics.

2.

Less is more. Reduce choices.

3.

Words matter. Focus on your call to action.

4.

Seek the global maximum.

5.

Start today.
One more thing...
A/B Testing
If data can help win elections, what
can it help you do for your business?
Dan Siroker
Co-Founder & CEO

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Dan siroker data testing and business business of software conference 2013