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Planning Under
Uncertainty:
Discovery Driven
Planning
1
“One of the
most important
management
ideas ever
developed”
2
A few from the Flops File
4
5
6
Assumption : Knowledge Ratio
7
Planning to learn at lowest possible cost
•Define success before you start
•Impose market and competitive discipline
•Lay out clear operations specifications
•Articulate and document assumptions
•Plan to checkpoints
8
Define Success
9
10
11
First big test – is this even reasonable, given the required
size of the market
• Use your reverse income statement to figure it out
12
Let’s do
some
math
Unit of Business
Key Metrics
Let’s take an actual Kickstarter project
What Profit?
$100,000
Required Revenue
$500,000
Profit Margin?
20%
Hello, Tumi
18
•Average price/item: $69 – Required unit sales = 7,247
•Advertising and marketing? How much per sale? $3
•Real estate? 4,000 square feet @ $18/square foot
•Manufacturing cost as a percent of sales - 50%
•Distribution costs? $5 each
•Salaries? 2 people
•What else?
Now, getting real – what are your assumptions?
20
• 5 minutes – what do you think you could change?
• What would have to stay fixed?
Breakout – how might you pivot this plan?
22
Yikes! First few versions don’t work, so …iterate
23
Combine little bets with financial reality
24
• 7
Checkpoints
Range of
Uncertainties
(Risk)
Uncertainty/ Cost Profile overtime
25
• R: Redirect?
• A: Accelerate?
• C: Continue?
• E: Exit?
At Each Checkpoint, RACE
26
As the founder of Blinds.com found
• Decrease your risk
• Accelerate your progress
• Build your team’s confidence
• Make smarter decisions
28
Thank you – keep in touch!
Email: rdm20@columbia.edu
Website: ritamcgrath.com
Twitter @rgmcgrath
LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ritamcgrath/
Instagram: @ritamcgrathofficial
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/rgmcgrath
New growth and innovation tools:
www.valize.com
Medium article on checkpoints
https://rgmcgrath.medium.com/discovery-
driven-checkpoints-for-growth-success-
32524d1ebff6

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BoSON22 | Rita McGrath | Discovery Driven Planning