This document summarizes corn export performance and outlook in the US for 2012-2013. US corn exports are down sharply compared to 2011-2012 levels, with weekly exports averaging 58% lower over the past 8 weeks. Total corn exports may drop below 1 billion bushels this year. Ethanol exports, another way to ship corn overseas, are also down significantly and may be 100-150 million bushels lower than last year. Reduced demand from Mexico, the #2 destination for US corn exports, has contributed to the decline as beef production has fallen there.

1. Vol. 10, No. 239 / December 11, 2012
US Corn Exports: Year To Date Performance and Outlook
Market Comments 000 bushels
1,800
Based on Weekly Exports, Converted to Bushels, 000 Bushels
Yr Ago. Est
@ 1.543
USDA will update this morning its estimates of US grain 1,600
supplies and use for the 2012-13 marketing year. For a sum- 1,400
mary of analyst estimates ahead of the report see the DLR pub- Nov. USDA
Est. @ 1.150
lished on 12/7. While USDA will not provide a final estimate of the
1,200
US corn crop until the January report (after having reviewed the 1,000
2011‐12 trend needed to
grain stocks numbers), by now we pretty much know how much corn 800
Cummulative
Exports
hit USDA est.
was harvested this fall. Any changes will likely be small and un- current trend
likely to alter the overall supply picture. Now the job of the market 600
is to figure out whether current price levels are sufficient to ration 400
out available supplies and force demand cutbacks if necessary. Of
the three main demand component, feed, ethanol and exports, we 200 2012‐13
Cummulative
have good monthly visibility of only the latter two. Feed demand is 0
Exports
pretty much an unknown/unknowable factor and it is derived as a
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
residual. Basically we know how much was fed to livestock and
poultry after taking an inventory of grain stocks and deducting how
much corn went to industrial use or was shipped outside of the coun- Monthly Ethanol Exports in Corn Equivalent
000 bu. Monthly Exports of Denatured and Undenatured Ethanol Conveted in Bushels of Corn
try. So far, the data on exports and ethanol appears to indicate that Required to Produce It. Source: US Census & Steiner Calculations
70,000
the surge in corn prices has had the intended effect. Corn exports
are down sharply and ethanol production has slowed down consider- 60,000
ably compared to a year ago. The chart to the right shows the pro-
gress in US corn shipments this year compared to both year ago 50,000
levels and the trend projected by USDA in its November update.
Weekly corn exports slowed down considerably in October and No- 40,000
vember. In the last 8 reported weeks, weekly corn exports have
averaged about 13.5 million bushels per week, compared to 32.1 30,000
million bushels per week averaged during the same period a year
20,000
ago, a 58% decline.
The current trend in US corn export shipments im- 10,000
plies that for 2012-13 total corn exports could dip below the 1
0
billion bushel mark. Some analysts already expect USDA to re-
vise the export number in the December report, implying more corn 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
going into feed. Increased availability of feed from other parts of the
world clearly has had an impact. Even shipments within North Ethanol exports, which has been another way to ship
America are down sharply. While Canada is a relatively small mar- corn to other markets, also have slowed down significantly. In
ket for US corn, Mexico is the number 2 destination, accounting for 2011-12, the US shipped the equivalent of 400 million bushels of
about 26% of US corn shipments in 2011-12. US corn shipments to corn in the form of ethanol exports. This marketing year, etha-
Mexico in the last marketing year amounted to almost 400 million nol exports (in corn bu. equivalent) could be down between 100-
bushels. But, significant liquidation of the beef cow herd and reduc- 150 million bushels.
tions in cattle feeding have limited Mexican demand for US corn.
Also, sharply higher meat protein prices in Mexico have further ra-
tioned out demand for pork and chicken, forcing cutbacks in overall Corrections & Amplifications: In yesterdays edition we incor-
feed demand. So far this marketing year, US corn exports to Mexico rectly noted that the economy added 118k jobs in November.
are down around 38 million bushels or 46% from last year. The correct figure is 146k jobs.
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