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Cynefin, Knowledge
 Management and
    Research

      Simon French
 simon.french@warwick.ac.uk
Research projects differ
                                              (Social)
• Some seek to explore issues                 Sciences
   – field studies vs laboratory studies
• Some seek to confirm or disprove
  hypotheses
   – field studies vs laboratory studies
• Some seek to critically evaluate an area
• Some seek to solve a problem and
  implement a solution
• Some design and implement new systems
• Some seek to develop new theory or         Engineering &
  algorithms                                 mathematics

                                                         2
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cynefin:
                                          Complex
• physical environment
• cultural environment
                                 The realm of Social Systems           Knowable
                                   Cause and effect may be
• social environment               determined after the event         The realm of
• historical environment                                           Scientific Inquiry
• …..                                                            Cause and effect can
                                                                   be determined with
                                  Chaotic                               sufficient data
                                Cause and effect
                                 not discernable


D. Snowden (2002).                                              Known
"Complex acts of knowing -                            The realm of Scientific
paradox and descriptive self-                              Knowledge
awareness." Journal of                              Cause and effect understood
Knowledge Management 6                                    and predicable
pp. 100-11.
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cynefin:
                                          Complex
• physical environment
• cultural environment
                                 The realm of Social Systems            Knowable
                                    Cause and effect may be
• social environment                determined after the event         The realm of
• historical environment                                            Scientific Inquiry
• …..                                                             Cause and effect can
                                                                    be determined with
                                  Chaotic                                sufficient data
                                Cause and effect
                                 not discernable


D. Snowden (2002).                                               Known
"Complex acts of knowing -                             The realm of Scientific
paradox and descriptive self-                               Knowledge
awareness." Journal of                               Cause and effect understood
Knowledge Management 6                                     and predicable
pp. 100-11.
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cynefin:
                                          Complex
• physical environment
• cultural environment
                                 The realm of Social Systems           Knowable
                                   Cause and effect may be
• social environment               determined after the event         The realm of
• historical environment                                           Scientific Inquiry
• …..                                                            Cause and effect can
                                                                   be determined with
                                  Chaotic                               sufficient data
                                Cause and effect
                                 not discernable


D. Snowden (2002).                                              Known
"Complex acts of knowing -                            The realm of Scientific
paradox and descriptive self-                              Knowledge
awareness." Journal of                              Cause and effect understood
Knowledge Management 6                                    and predicable
pp. 100-11.
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cynefin:
                                          Complex
• physical environment
• cultural environment
                                 The realm of Social Systems           Knowable
                                   Cause and effect may be
• social environment               determined after the event         The realm of
• historical environment                                           Scientific Inquiry
• …..                                                            Cause and effect can
                                                                   be determined with
                                  Chaotic                               sufficient data
                                Cause and effect
                                 not discernable


D. Snowden (2002).                                              Known
"Complex acts of knowing -                            The realm of Scientific
paradox and descriptive self-                              Knowledge
awareness." Journal of                              Cause and effect understood
Knowledge Management 6                                    and predicable
pp. 100-11.
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cynefin:
                                          Complex
• physical environment
• cultural environment
                                 The realm of Social Systems           Knowable
                                   Cause and effect may be
• social environment               determined after the event         The realm of
• historical environment                                           Scientific Inquiry
• …..                                                            Cause and effect can
                                                                   be determined with
                                  Chaotic                               sufficient data
                                Cause and effect
                                 not discernable


D. Snowden (2002).                                              Known
"Complex acts of knowing -                            The realm of Scientific
paradox and descriptive self-                              Knowledge
awareness." Journal of                              Cause and effect understood
Knowledge Management 6                                    and predicable
pp. 100-11.
Cynefin: a Welsh habitat
Cynefin:
                                          Complex
• physical environment
• cultural environment
                                 The realm of Social Systems           Knowable
                                   Cause and effect may be
• social environment               determined after the event         The realm of
• historical environment                                           Scientific Inquiry
• …..                                                            Cause and effect can
                                                                   be determined with
                                  Chaotic                               sufficient data
                                Cause and effect
                                 not discernable


D. Snowden (2002).                                              Known
"Complex acts of knowing -                            The realm of Scientific
paradox and descriptive self-                              Knowledge
awareness." Journal of                              Cause and effect understood
Knowledge Management 6                                    and predicable
pp. 100-11.
A conventional view of
emergency management
        Complex
 The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
                                   The realm of
                                Scientific Inquiry


  Chaotic



                         Known
                   The realm of Scientific
                        Knowledge
A conventional view of
emergency management
        Complex
 The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
                                   The realm of
                                Scientific Inquiry


  Chaotic



                         Known
                   The realm of Scientific
                        Knowledge
What can we learn from the
          past?
Chernobyl
       Complex
The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
                                  The realm of
                               Scientific Inquiry


 Chaotic



                        Known
                  The realm of Scientific
                       Knowledge
Three Mile Island
       Complex
The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
                                  The realm of
                               Scientific Inquiry


 Chaotic



                        Known
                  The realm of Scientific
                       Knowledge
More generally
         Complex
  The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
Recovery                            The realm of
                                 Scientific Inquiry   Response
   Chaotic



                          Known
                    The realm of Scientific
                         Knowledge
                                                Threat
Knowledge Management and
      Nonaka’s SECI
                Externalisation




         tacit              explicit
      knowledge            knowledge


Socialisation                     Combination
                Internalisation
Cynefin and Knowledge Management
                                Complex
                       The realm of Social Systems            Knowable
                          Cause and effect may be
                          determined after the event         The realm of
                                                          Scientific Inquiry




                                                                                    Combination
                                                        Cause and effect can
  Socialisation



                                                          be determined with
                        Chaotic                                sufficient data
                      Cause and effect
                       not discernable


                                                       Known
                                             The realm of Scientific
                                                  Knowledge
                                           Cause and effect understood
                                                 and predicable


                                                         Explicit Knowledge
                                                                 Data/Information
                  Tacit Knowledge                                    Management
                  Collaboration tools
Applications of Cynefin
• Emergency Management
• Categorisation of DSS and OR/DA
  techniques
• Human Reliability Analysis
• High Reliability Organisations
• Knowledge Management
• Sensemaking
• Research Methodology
Cynefin: learning, repeatability
             Complex
    The realm of Social Systems            Knowable
       Cause and effect may be
       determined after the event         The realm of
                                       Scientific Inquiry
                                     Cause and effect can
                                       be determined with
     Chaotic                                sufficient data
   Cause and effect
    not discernable


                                    Known
                          The realm of Scientific
                               Knowledge
                        Cause and effect understood           Repeatability
                              and predicable
                                                              and
                                                              increasing
                                                              familiarity
Cynefin and data collection
             Complex
    The realm of Social Systems            Knowable
       Cause and effect may be
       determined after the event         The realm of
                                       Scientific Inquiry
                                     Cause and effect can
                                       be determined with
     Chaotic                                sufficient data
   Cause and effect
    not discernable


                                    Known
                          The realm of Scientific
                               Knowledge
                        Cause and effect understood
                              and predicable
Cynefin and statistics
          Complex
 The realm of Social Systems
            Unique                      Knowable
    Cause and effect may be
    determined after the event         The realm of
             events                 Scientific Inquiry
                                  Cause and effect can
                                    be determined with
  Chaotic                                sufficient data
Cause and effect
 not discernable
Events?
                                 Known
                       The realm of Scientific
                            Knowledge
                     Cause and effect understood
                           and predicable
So ...
... why do we see so many articles in
social science and management journals
dealing with issues that are clearly in the
complex space but using confirmatory
methods:
  –   Analysis of variance/covariance
  –   Structural equation modelling
  –   Precise p-values
  –   ...
Cynefin and Values
           Complex
  The realm of Social Systems            Knowable
     Cause and effect may be
           Unique
     determined after the event         The realm of
                                     Scientific Inquiry
           events                  Cause and effect can
                                     be determined with
   Chaotic                                sufficient data
 Cause and effect
  not discernable


                                  Known
Events?                 The realm of Scientific
                             Knowledge
                      Cause and effect understood
                            and predicable
Thank you
Complexity vs Complicated
• Confusingly complexity science does not
  relate primarily to the complex space!
• It is about computationally intensive
  models: i.e. complicated models
  Models   understanding cause and effect
• So complexity science applies to the
  knowable space much more than the
  complex space.
Human Reliability Modelling
          Complex
   The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
                                     The realm of
                                  Scientific Inquiry


    Chaotic



                           Known
                     The realm of Scientific
                          Knowledge
High reliability organisations
           Complex
    The realm of Social Systems       Knowable
                                      The realm of
                                   Scientific Inquiry


     Chaotic



                            Known
                      The realm of Scientific
                           Knowledge
Do preferences exist?

• DeFinetti famously said
  –   “Probabilities do not exist”
• Do preferences exist?
• or better
  – When do preferences come into
    existence?
Cynefin and decision making
                     Complex
 probe,     The realm of Social Systems            Knowable
               Cause and effect may be
 sense,        determined after the event         The realm of
 respond                                       Scientific Inquiry
                                             Cause and effect can     Sense,
                                               be determined with     analyse
             Chaotic                                sufficient data
                                                                      and
           Cause and effect
act         not discernable                                           respond
sense
respond                                     Known
                                  The realm of Scientific
                                       Knowledge
                                Cause and effect understood
                                      and predicable




                     categorise and respond
Complex
Level 0: soft OR, PSM, EDA, EIS, data-
         mining
Level 1: expert judgement
Level 2: scenario planning
Level 3: simpler MCDM models,                 Knowable
         simpler decision trees,
         influence diagrams           Level 0: databases, MIS
                                      Level 1: statistical inference,   Level 0: Acquisition, checking and
                                               forecasting                       presentation of data,
  Chaotic                             Level 2: OR models e.g. LP                 directly or with minimal
                                               simulation                        analysis, to DMs
Level 0:       exploration,

         }{
                                      Level 3: decision trees,
Level 1:       trial and error,                                         Level 1: Analysis and forecasting of
                                               influence diagrams
Level 2:       building                                                          the current and future
Level 3:       hypotheses.                                                       environment.
                                          Known                         Level 2: Simulation and analysis of
                                                                                 the consequences of
                            Level 0:   database systems
                                                                                 potential strategies;
                            Level 1:   forecasting
                                                                                 determination of their
                            Level 2:   simulation
                                                                                 feasibility and quantification
                            Level 3:   AI, e.g. expert systems,
                                       neural nets
                                                                                 of their benefits and
                                                                                 disadvantages.
                            Data and model based systems                Level 3: Evaluation and ranking of
                            (cf. combination cycle of SECI)                      alternative strategies in the
Collaboration                                                                    face of uncertainty by
tools, GDSS, decision                                                            balancing their respective
conferencing, etc.                                                               benefits and
                                                                                 disadvantages.
(cf. socialisation cycle of SECI)

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Cynefin iscram summer_school

  • 1. Cynefin, Knowledge Management and Research Simon French simon.french@warwick.ac.uk
  • 2. Research projects differ (Social) • Some seek to explore issues Sciences – field studies vs laboratory studies • Some seek to confirm or disprove hypotheses – field studies vs laboratory studies • Some seek to critically evaluate an area • Some seek to solve a problem and implement a solution • Some design and implement new systems • Some seek to develop new theory or Engineering & algorithms mathematics 2
  • 3. Cynefin: a Welsh habitat Cynefin: Complex • physical environment • cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be • social environment determined after the event The realm of • historical environment Scientific Inquiry • ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable D. Snowden (2002). Known "Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientific paradox and descriptive self- Knowledge awareness." Journal of Cause and effect understood Knowledge Management 6 and predicable pp. 100-11.
  • 4. Cynefin: a Welsh habitat Cynefin: Complex • physical environment • cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be • social environment determined after the event The realm of • historical environment Scientific Inquiry • ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable D. Snowden (2002). Known "Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientific paradox and descriptive self- Knowledge awareness." Journal of Cause and effect understood Knowledge Management 6 and predicable pp. 100-11.
  • 5. Cynefin: a Welsh habitat Cynefin: Complex • physical environment • cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be • social environment determined after the event The realm of • historical environment Scientific Inquiry • ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable D. Snowden (2002). Known "Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientific paradox and descriptive self- Knowledge awareness." Journal of Cause and effect understood Knowledge Management 6 and predicable pp. 100-11.
  • 6. Cynefin: a Welsh habitat Cynefin: Complex • physical environment • cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be • social environment determined after the event The realm of • historical environment Scientific Inquiry • ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable D. Snowden (2002). Known "Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientific paradox and descriptive self- Knowledge awareness." Journal of Cause and effect understood Knowledge Management 6 and predicable pp. 100-11.
  • 7. Cynefin: a Welsh habitat Cynefin: Complex • physical environment • cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be • social environment determined after the event The realm of • historical environment Scientific Inquiry • ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable D. Snowden (2002). Known "Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientific paradox and descriptive self- Knowledge awareness." Journal of Cause and effect understood Knowledge Management 6 and predicable pp. 100-11.
  • 8. Cynefin: a Welsh habitat Cynefin: Complex • physical environment • cultural environment The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be • social environment determined after the event The realm of • historical environment Scientific Inquiry • ….. Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable D. Snowden (2002). Known "Complex acts of knowing - The realm of Scientific paradox and descriptive self- Knowledge awareness." Journal of Cause and effect understood Knowledge Management 6 and predicable pp. 100-11.
  • 9. A conventional view of emergency management Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  • 10. A conventional view of emergency management Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  • 11. What can we learn from the past?
  • 12. Chernobyl Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  • 13. Three Mile Island Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  • 14. More generally Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Recovery The realm of Scientific Inquiry Response Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Threat
  • 15. Knowledge Management and Nonaka’s SECI Externalisation tacit explicit knowledge knowledge Socialisation Combination Internalisation
  • 16. Cynefin and Knowledge Management Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry Combination Cause and effect can Socialisation be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable Explicit Knowledge Data/Information Tacit Knowledge Management Collaboration tools
  • 17. Applications of Cynefin • Emergency Management • Categorisation of DSS and OR/DA techniques • Human Reliability Analysis • High Reliability Organisations • Knowledge Management • Sensemaking • Research Methodology
  • 18. Cynefin: learning, repeatability Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood Repeatability and predicable and increasing familiarity
  • 19. Cynefin and data collection Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable
  • 20. Cynefin and statistics Complex The realm of Social Systems Unique Knowable Cause and effect may be determined after the event The realm of events Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Events? Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable
  • 21. So ... ... why do we see so many articles in social science and management journals dealing with issues that are clearly in the complex space but using confirmatory methods: – Analysis of variance/covariance – Structural equation modelling – Precise p-values – ...
  • 22. Cynefin and Values Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be Unique determined after the event The realm of Scientific Inquiry events Cause and effect can be determined with Chaotic sufficient data Cause and effect not discernable Known Events? The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable
  • 24. Complexity vs Complicated • Confusingly complexity science does not relate primarily to the complex space! • It is about computationally intensive models: i.e. complicated models Models understanding cause and effect • So complexity science applies to the knowable space much more than the complex space.
  • 25. Human Reliability Modelling Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  • 26. High reliability organisations Complex The realm of Social Systems Knowable The realm of Scientific Inquiry Chaotic Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge
  • 27. Do preferences exist? • DeFinetti famously said – “Probabilities do not exist” • Do preferences exist? • or better – When do preferences come into existence?
  • 28. Cynefin and decision making Complex probe, The realm of Social Systems Knowable Cause and effect may be sense, determined after the event The realm of respond Scientific Inquiry Cause and effect can Sense, be determined with analyse Chaotic sufficient data and Cause and effect act not discernable respond sense respond Known The realm of Scientific Knowledge Cause and effect understood and predicable categorise and respond
  • 29. Complex Level 0: soft OR, PSM, EDA, EIS, data- mining Level 1: expert judgement Level 2: scenario planning Level 3: simpler MCDM models, Knowable simpler decision trees, influence diagrams Level 0: databases, MIS Level 1: statistical inference, Level 0: Acquisition, checking and forecasting presentation of data, Chaotic Level 2: OR models e.g. LP directly or with minimal simulation analysis, to DMs Level 0: exploration, }{ Level 3: decision trees, Level 1: trial and error, Level 1: Analysis and forecasting of influence diagrams Level 2: building the current and future Level 3: hypotheses. environment. Known Level 2: Simulation and analysis of the consequences of Level 0: database systems potential strategies; Level 1: forecasting determination of their Level 2: simulation feasibility and quantification Level 3: AI, e.g. expert systems, neural nets of their benefits and disadvantages. Data and model based systems Level 3: Evaluation and ranking of (cf. combination cycle of SECI) alternative strategies in the Collaboration face of uncertainty by tools, GDSS, decision balancing their respective conferencing, etc. benefits and disadvantages. (cf. socialisation cycle of SECI)