CPX 2011 Complexity and the game of go
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My CPX presentation introducing people to the concepts of Complexity theory and how it can be applied to the business world using the ancient game of Go as a learning tool. Go is the most revered of Asian strategy board games. But simply calling Go a game is like calling the space shuttle a glider. It has been used for centuries to discuss and model political, economic and military strategy in China and Japan. Often Go has been compared to Chess to highlight the differences between Eastern and Western thought, but Chess and Go can be used to highlight the differences between what's 'Complicated' and 'Complex'. Learning the difference is a great way to recognise and explore complex environments for appropriate practice and management. This 'go playing' session aimed to introduce participants in a tacit and engaging way by to complexity theory; how an understanding of complexity can be used to look at business and manage change; and how the game of Go can be used as both a metaphor and a brain training exercise for managing success in complex environments.
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CPX 2011 Complexity and the game of go
- 1. Complexity & the game of Go Teaching the world about complexity, one stone at a time www.DeltaKnowledge.net Stuart French @DeltaKnowledge
- 3. Complexity keeps CEOs awake at night! “ While eight out of ten CEOs anticipate significant complexity ahead, less than half feel prepared to handle it.” “ There isn’t the luxury of time. We used to say, ‘Wait until this crisis is over and we get back to normal,’ but that never happens. We have to be ‘change animals.’” - Michele McKenzie Download at http://bit.ly/IBMcomplexity2010
- 4. Your Ontology should always drive your Epistemology Dave Snowden
- 6. Getting a grip on Complexity Q. If you knew all the causes, would you always be able to determine the outcome? Lets find out!
- 7. Getting a grip on Complexity If you knew everybody’s choices before-hand: 1) Could you have predicted everybody’s final position? 2) Could you find a solution as quickly as we just did it? Even with a computer?
- 8. Moving a puck forward
- 10. “ When you make the complicated simple, you make it better. But when you make the complex simple, you make it wrong.” - Dave Gray, Founder XPLANE
- 11. We are not the first to tread this path of complexity
- 12. How this idea got started Chess = Complicated Go = Complex
- 14. Gamification Go is a great metaphor for managing in complex environments 1 Go is a great way to practice recognising and managing complex environments 2
- 18. 1st 3 possible moves = 46,655,640 This makes Go VERY complicated
- 19. What makes Go Complex? Image thanks to http://gameschoolgems.blogspot.com/2009/12/influence-maps-i.html
- 20. What makes Go Complex? Image thanks to http://gameschoolgems.blogspot.com/2009/12/influence-maps-i.html
- 21. Complexity & the game of Go In Go the 4.6 x 10 170 permutations means no two games are the same. Pattern recognition and intuition are key. Rather than dominate, one seeks incremental influence of the board as the nature of the game is revealed. Go can be seen as the story of Human Society:
- 38. Safe-Fail experiment: Ponnuki Go First player to capture an opponent’s stone wins! Play fast, learn, adapt. Let the game teach you how to play.
- 39. Safe-Fail experiment: Ponnuki Go First player to capture an opponent’s stone wins! Play fast, learn, adapt. Let the game teach you how to play.
- 40. A basic game of Go Play fast, learn, adapt. Let the game teach you how to play.
- 43. Scoring a Go game The winner is determined by their score Score = Points Surrounded + Prisoners taken White wins! White: 12 + 5 = 17 Black: 15 + 1 = 16
- 48. Now for the real thing Lets try Go!
- 49. Go’s Key Lessons: 1. Ambient Awareness 2. Adaptive Ability But what does this look like in your organisation?
Editor's Notes
- What is complexity theory? Complexity Exercise How do we learn about it? - Practice! The idea Gamification History of Go Difference between GO & Chess Basic Rules How to score Practice Ear Reddening Game Link back to Complexity and discuss
- Mechanical metaphor wearing thin. Being replaced by organic ones. Academic world working on Chaos theory with stronger explanatory power.
- In IBM’s 2010 report on 1500 CEOs attitudes, it found that Complexity has replaced change as the #1 factor keeping CEOs awake at night. http://bit.ly/lliWVu
- Snowden the best way for business people to understand how Complexity might apply to them. And even more importantly when you need to adapt because you are in the complex domain. QUOTE: Your model of the world (Ontology) should always drive your thinking about solutions (Epistemology). Ie: When you are up to your waste in a swamp, arguing about whether the Falcon or the Commodore is a better solution is a waste of time!
- EXPLAIN Cynefin.
- So what is complexity? It is where many agents work and interact simultaneously, often with just a few simple rules in play.
- Story of SBS girl and discovering that while an environment can appear extremely chaotic, complex ones have a fabric with certain patterns that emerge.
- Obliquity: Niko - puck handling. Who is in control of the pucks direction? The key is that to try and break that question down suggests more control is required. More control actually decreases the players chance of getting the puck in the goal!
- Complexity Theory is new, but people have been finding ways to deal with complexity for thousands of years. Games have been one way of modelling these environments and given the more holistic view of the world in the East, many Eastern games have less focus on direct cause and effect, and one in particular, GO, takes complexity as it's base concept. The way many medievel Chinese and Japanese noblemen learned about operating in complex situations was by learning to play the game of Go and becoming comfortable with the "fabric". It wasn't learning the rules of Go that make them better, but rather the process one has to go through in order to excel at the game that made them more able to find success in the real world.
- Resilience is the ability to respond to problems and adapt to solve them. Robustness is about predicting every possible failure and having a contingency.
- Resilience is the ability to respond to problems and adapt to solve them. Robustness is about predicting every possible failure and having a contingency.
- More possible ending points than there are atoms in the visible universe.
- "A game of go is symbolic of the gradual occupation of our planet by the human race. It's sides are the coasts, washed by oceans and seas. The corners can be compared to islands or peninsulas. Those parts having a greater coastline are more easily defended. The central part of the map corresponds to the centre of continents where the inhabitants have no outlet to the sea.
- In the beginning, men were very few and the families or tribes had all the territory they desired without need for offensive or defensive action. They lived in a state of nature.
- But with the multiplication of human beings began the first struggles for the appropriation of the best places along the rivers and sea coasts. As the game develops and bases have been consolidated, advance to the interior is begun. The occupation of this territory is rendered permanent by the formation of live masses.
- When the war ends peace treaties are made. All territories on the map are occupied. In one place we find large or small masses that have definitely won their territory, in another, masses living side by side respecting the rights of their neighbours whom they can never hope to dislodge. We have not arrived, in our world, at the state of finality achieved at the end of a game of go." From 'The Game of Wei-Chi', by Count Daniele Pecorini and Tong Shu.
- The two main lessons that Go teaches us about managing in a complex environment are: Ambient Awareness. With so many options you cannot predict every possibility. The key is to learn to sense possible threats early and respond lightly and quickly. Adaptive Ability. As a result, your true power comes not from a specific strategy. Planning is still important, but you ability to respond to whatever may occur is the key factor.