This document summarizes Owen Gaffney's presentation at the TechFestival in Copenhagen on September 6th. Some key points: - The next decade will see the fastest economic transformation in history as countries transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles rapidly increase. China is adding 9,500 electric buses per month. - Multiple climate tipping points are showing signs of change, such as declining Arctic sea ice and accelerating ice loss in Greenland and mountain glaciers. - To stabilize the climate, global emissions must be cut in half by 2030 according to an "Exponential Climate Action Roadmap." Major transformations will be needed across all sectors of energy, transportation, industry, agriculture and more. -

1. Owen Gaffney
TechFestival
6 September, Copenhagen
@owengaffney
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Stockholm Resilience Centre

2. The next decade will be the
fastest economic
transformation in history.

3. 3
Every 5 weeks China adds 9500 electric buses to its fleet…
…Equivalent to the entire London bus fleet.

4. 60% of new cars in Norway are electric…
From 5% five years ago.

8. The global economic transformation
will be much faster than people
think.

9. Solar cell growth (black) versus World Energy Outlook (WEO) predictions (coloured)

10. On path to 50% electricity from renewables
Exponential Roadmap 2018. Falk, Gaffney et al

14. Unsafe Territory: Extreme Events in 2018/19

16. Humanity’s 10,000 years of grace

21. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Meandering of the Jet Stream
Animation

22. IPC
C
Assessmen
t
Reports
and 1.5C
special
report*
0 1 2 3 4 5 °C
Past Future
Changing risk landscape related to large-scale discontinuities
2001
2013
2018’*
2007 Undetectable Low High Very high
1.1°C
(2019)

23. Arctic sea ice.
Massive reduction in area
Greenland
Ice loss accelerating
Permafrost
Signs of increasing los
Mountain glaciers
Ice loss acceleratin
Coral reefs
Large-scale die o
2016/2017
Boreal forest
Jetstream
Increasingly
meandering
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Ice loss accelerating
Amazon rainforest
Unprecedented droughts
in last 15 years
Atlantic circulation
15% slowdown since 1950s
Tipping elements undergoing detectable large-scale changes

24. A Global Map of Potential Tipping Cascades

25. CARBON LAW – a trajectory to stabilise climate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Year
GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS
(GTCO2)
LAND-USE
EMISSIONS
(GTCO2)
CO2 REMOVAL
(GtCO2)
Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen,
Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
GIGATONNES
CO2

26. 26

27. Cutting Emissions by Half 2030

28. 28
How do transformations happen in society?
• Industrial revolution
• Womens’ rights
• Civil rights
• Green revolution
• End apartheid

29. 29
Transformations are usually the result of a
combination of these:
• Interventions from knowledge producers
• Market confidence
• Social movements
• Government policies
• New technology

30. 30

31. TIPPING
POINT

33. But there is a wildcard…

38. Cutting emissions in half by 2030

39. Every child’s
birthright is a
stable, resilient
planet.
This is now at risk.

40. The next decade must be the
fastest economic
transformation in history

41. Owen Gaffney
TechFestival
6 September, Copenhagen
@owengaffney
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Stockholm Resilience Centre

43. 43
Is the Message Being Heard? Global Risk Landscape 2018-19
What is the impact and
likelihood of global risks?
World Economic Forum
Global Risk Perception Survey
2018-2019

44. Data:Steffen, Broadgate, Deutsche, Gaffney, Ludwig
Visualisation: Globaia

45. The Great Acceleration
Steffen, Broadgate, Deutsch, Gaffney, Ludwig Anthr. Review 2015. Image: Globaia

46. WELCOME TO THE
ANTHROPOCENE

47. Every child’s birthright is a stable, resilient planet.
This is now at risk.
Global Commons in the Anthropocene 2016, (Nakicenovic, Rockström, Gaffney, Zimm)

48. Climate Change Is Top Global Threat 2018
Survey by Pew Research Center, 2018
• 26 countries, 27 000 individuals
• 67 % name climate change as biggest
threat (compared to 56% in 2013)
• Fear of cyber-attacks and power of USA
on the rise
Source: Pew Research Center, 2019

50. Biosphere Positive Future
Store carbon, not emit it
Purify water and soils, not pollute them
Enhance biodiversity, not destroy it
Image: Globaia

51. Digitalautomation
Retrofitting
Low-carbon
heatingand
cooling
Low-carbon
construction
2020 2030
Annualemissions(%)
50
Solar photovoltaics
Concentrated
solar power
Wind power
Reduced methane
emissions
Gridflexibility and
storage
Otherlow-carbon energy
2020 2030
Annualemissions(%)
50
Circular
economy
Supplyside
efficiencies
Refrigerant
management
2020 2030
Annualemissions(%)
2525 25
7575 75
50
Reduced
foodwaste
Plant-based
diet
2020 2030
Annualemissions(%)
50
Sustainable agriculture
Agroforestry
Precisionagriculture
Farmland restoration
Forestmanagement
2020 2030
Annualemissions(%)
50
Masstransit
Bikes
Electric vehicles Mobility
and accessibility
Reduced airtransport
2020 2030
Annualemissions(%)
25 2525
75 7575
50
Efficientshipping
Remotework and
meetings4.1
Composting
Peatlands and
wetlands
3
.
2
Low-emissiontrucks
ENERGY
SUPPLY
INDUSTRY BUILDINGS
AGRICULTURE
& FORESTRY
FOOD
CONSUMPTION
TRANSPORT
EXPONENTIAL CLIMATE ACTION ROADMAP: solutions to halve emissions by 2030 Falk, Gaffney et al 2018

53. 53

54. We love it!

55. Anthropocene
+
Holocene Our Garden of Eden
+
Tipping Points hardwired
=
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES
Image: GLOBAIA

56. Rockström et al, Nature 2009

57. Whatever

58. Quite sure,
Thank you.

59. Mmm…
How bad is it?

60. Does it get worse?

61. Arctic sea ice.
Greenland
Permafrost
Mountain glaciers
Boreal forest
Jetstream
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Amazon rainforest
Coral reefs
Atlantic circulation
East Antarctic Ice Sheet
Antarctic bottom waters
Sahel/
West African Monsoon
Tundra
Cloud sensitivity/Atmospheric circulation
ENSO
Tipping points in the Earth system
Marine biological pump
Methane hydrates
Arctic ozone
Detected changes at 1°C
Tipping point estimated beyond 2°C

62. Steffen, Rockström, Cornell et al 2015 Science