Connections 2018 - Scott Anthony - Strategy through uncertainty: How to turn ambiguity into opportunity

© Copyright 2018 Innosight Consulting LLC and/or its affiliates 0www.innosight.com
Scott D. Anthony
29 May 2018
@ScottDAnthony
Strategy through
Uncertainty
How to turn ambiguity into opportunity

The trouble with
our times is that
the future is not
what it used
to be

OLD MAPS GET YOU LOST
• Unassailable data only exists
about the past
• Disruptions start outside the
mainstream
• Winning business models
emerge from experimentation
• Tomorrow’s competitors are
different from today’s
competitors

PRINCIPLE 1
Live present
forward, but
think future back

What do you have with you
today that will be an
anachronism in 2030?

“The future has already arrived. It is
just not very evenly distributed.”

PRINCIPLE 2
Create data-
informed stories, not
data-driven reports

How would you
introduce yourself at
a cocktail party in
2030?
How would you introduce yourself at a cocktail party
in 2030?
Your
Quest
I am a teacher and strategic advisor. I teach at
INSEAD and Innosight University and sit on several
boards and advisory committees.

Heroes and Crises5+ Years in the Future
Pictures and Videos Starts with Why

• Our first responsibility is to the doctors, nurses
and patients, to mothers and fathers and all
others who use our products and services.
• Trusted voices of light and truth reaching
hundreds of millions of people worldwide.
• Be the Earth's most customer-centric company,
where customers can find and discover
anything they might want to buy online.
• Organize the world’s information and make it
universally accessible and useful.
• We aspire to be captains in the lives of
offenders committed to our custody.

PRINCIPLE 3
Remember the
essence of strategy
is choice
Kennedy and
moonshots

We propose to accelerate the development of the appropriate lunar space craft. We
propose to develop alternate liquid and solid fuel boosters, much larger than any now
being developed, until certain which is superior. We propose additional funds for other
engine development and for unmanned explorations —explorations which are
particularly important for … the survival of the man who first makes this daring flight.

What would be key artifacts on the
way to your future ambition?
How would you introduce yourself at a cocktail party
in 2030?
Your
Quest
What would be key milestones on the path to the
future you?
Artifact
Trail
I am a teacher and strategic advisor. I teach at
INSEAD and Innosight University and sit on several
boards and advisory committees.
• Help launch Innosight University
• Serve as guest lecturer for a term at INSEAD
• Join a small company board

Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Cumulative Investment by project
category
Core
Adjacent
Transformation
Core
Today +5 Years
Bubble size represents total investment
Adjacent
Trans-
formation
Launch Date
InnovationType
Strategy is not what you
say, it is what you do
In 2013 Singtel publicly
committed to spend $1.6 billion
over the next few years to
pursue strategic acquisitions in
the digital space. Reflecting on
that commitment in 2015,
[Board Chairman Simon] Israel
noted that the plan was big
enough to demonstrate a
commitment to do something
significant, but not so big that it
posed a fundamental risk to the
company.
Strategy is not what you
say, it is what you do and
don’t do

PRINCIPLE 4
The future must be
discovered; defeat
HIPPOs with kites

Failure. We’re hypocrites about
it. Go online, and you’ll find
scores of pleasant aphorisms
celebrating the inevitability of
failure and the importance of
learning from it. But in real life—
and in real companies—failure is
anathema. We’re afraid of it. We
avoid it. We penalize it.

Codify re-usable learning3
Celebrate success4
Provide symbolic closure6
Pre-determine criteria1
Involve outsiders2
Communicate widely5

Strongly
Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree
Strongly
Agree Rationale
1.
We spend enough time at the
periphery to understand key trends
2.
We have a shared sense as to what
we should look like in 5-10 years
3.
We have clearly defined our strategic
initiatives
4.
We are making sufficient investments
in our strategic initiatives
5.
We have a plan to prune our existing
portfolio to create capacity
6.
We experiment rigorously to address
strategic uncertainties
7.
Our culture tolerates “productive
failure”
SELF-DIAGNOSTIC https://innosight.box.com/v/SportsNZ
Assess how well you think your organization is prepared to address today’s uncertainty

Live present
forward, but think
future back
The future must be
discovered; defeat
HIPPOs with kites
Remember the
essence of
strategy
is choice
Create data-
informed stories,
not data-driven
reports

sg.linkedin.com/in/scottdanthony
@ScottDAnthony
www.innosight.com
santhony@innosight.com
https://innosight.box.com/v/SportsNZ
https://innosight.box.com/v/SportsNZ

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