Com os prazos do Brexit se esgotando, que escolhas restam ao Reino Unido fazer e quais as suas consequências? - Michael Leigh

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Em junho de 2016, por estreita margem, os eleitores britânicos e da Irlanda do Norte aprovaram a saída do Reino Unido da União Europeia. No mês seguinte, em campanha que a levaria a ser líder do Partido Conservador e primeira ministra, Thereza May afirmou: Brexit means Brexit, indicando a disposição de cumprir o desejo expresso pela maioria naquele referendo. Não obstante, três anos depois, com um novo primeiro ministro recém escolhido, ainda não se sabe como o Reino Unido deixará a União Europeia. Depois de dois adiamentos, a União Europeia estabeleceu uma data definitiva para o Brexit, com ou sem acordo: 31 de outubro. Mas nem mesmo esse prazo é uma certeza absoluta. Nem sequer um novo referendo, embora remoto, pode ser descartado. Em meio a tantas incertezas, que cenários de médio e longo prazo se podem vislumbrar para o Reino Unido? Que efeitos terão para a União Europeia e o mundo, incluindo o Brasil? Para responder a essas perguntas, a Fundação FHC receberá Sir. Michael Leigh, cidadão britânico que ocupou posições de destaque na direção da política externa da União Europeia. MICHAEL LEIGH Cientista político, foi diretor-geral da Comissão Europeia (órgão executivo da União Europeia), onde trabalhou por mais de 25 anos. Desde que deixou o cargo, tem realizado palestras e escrito sobre o futuro da Europa como membro sênior do German Marshall Fund dos Estados Unidos e professor adjunto sênior da Escola de Estudos Internacionais Avançados da Universidade Johns Hopkins. É PhD em ciência política pelo Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Presentations & Public Speaking

Today’s discussion
Brexit
Scenarios for the “future of Europe”
EU-Mercosur Agreement (Q/A)

Explanations for Brexit
British insularity and exceptionalism

Leadership failures
• David Cameron’s disastrous decision
• Theresa May’s bungled negotiations
• Jeremy Corbyn’s ambiguities
This
-NC-ND

Defective democracy?
• Referendum campaign
• Ill-informed
• Lies and distortions
• Poorly led
• Financial abuses
• Referendum
• Under 52% voted leave
• Just 37% of eligible electorate
• No threshold
• No super-majority
• Restricted franchise

Brexit outcomes
1. Britain leaves on 31 October with agreement
2. Britain leaves on 31 October with no agreement
3. Brexit postponed (again)
• Election?
• Renegotiation?
• Referendum?
• Revocation?
5%
60%
35%

Brexit impact
Two “unions” affected
• The United Kingdom
• The European Union

Three scenarios for EU’s future after Brexit
1. Relaunch
2. Disintegration
3. Consolidation

Bolster Euro
“Europe that protects”
Asylum and border protection
Defend democracy

Opposed by
• Matteo Salvini (Italy)
• Marine Le Pen (France)
• Nigel Farage (UK)
• Viktor Orbán (Hungary)
• Jarosław Kaczyński (Poland)
• Andrej Babiš (Czech Republic)
• Geert Wilders (Netherlands)
• ….numerous

Scenario 2 Disintegration
• Academics
• Think-tankers
• EU critics
• Public opinion
• “the EU could collapse in the next 20 years”
(recent poll)

Scenario (2) Disintegration
Core achievements at risk
• Euro
• Open internal borders (“Schengen)
EU legitimacy questioned
• Rise of nationalism and Euroscepticism
• Decline of multilateralism

Scenario (2) Disintegration
• No grand initiatives or treaties
• Federal approach abandoned
• Confrontational groups of members
• Interference by Russia, China and others (?)
• No new enlargement
• Brexit challenges “irreversibility” of
European integration

Scenario (3) Consolidation
Neither relaunch nor collapse
Hold on to what we’ve got
Small incremental steps
Cooperation not integration

Scenario (3) consolidation
Modest eurozone budget
Better control of external borders
Climate goals
Anti-trust
Unified capital markets
Data protection
Science and research
Trade

So what next in Europe?
• Political fragmentation
• End of Merkel era
• Instability (Italy, Spain…)
• Authoritarian drift in central Europe
• Will Macron reforms succeed?
• Will EU prove resilient?
• Will new EU leaders rise to the
challenge?

EU - Mercosur
An opportunity A challenge

Scenario (3) Consolidation
EU-Mercosur
20 year negotiation
• Region-to-region
• Current trade $100b goods $38b services
• Should benefit
• EU machinery, electronic equipment, chemicals,
services, motor vehicles, wine, cheese, olive oil
• Mercosur light manufactures and agriculture
• But must be signed and ratified
• Concerns in EU about environment and agriculture
• Argentine elections (?)

Dr. Adam Bronstone presented a comprehensive, insightful brief on Brexit and the historical background and context to a TNWAC Global Town Hall in January 2019. This detailed examination of British-European relations through history up to the current Brexit troubles provided an excellent grounding in understanding this complex issue. *** Brexit. A clever portmanteau that crept into the language of European politics around 2012, following the example of “Grexit,” when observers thought Greece was slipping out of the Eurozone. It has since evolved from a political football of the “remainers” and “exiters” to a political nightmare for the British government and their European Union colleagues. The “exit” is a result of a referendum in the United Kingdom on June 23, 2016 in which 71.8%f eligible voters turned out to render a 51.9% to 48.1% result, calling for the UK to separate from the EU. Britain which had been in the EU since 1973 when the bloc was called the European Economic Community, invoked Article 50 of the treaty starting the countdown to the divorce — set for March 29, 2019. In the interim the UK and the EU have talked about their respective futures after Brexit but much is left to be decided with little time left to negotiate the thorny issues that remain. And in the case of Brexit if not everything is decided then nothing is decided. How did the UK and the EU get to this point? Where are they now? Where are they going? What does it mean for the United States? To get to the nut of the problem we asked Dr. Adam Bronstone to join us for our January 17th Global Town Hall at Belmont University. He is an expert on European politics and as a UK university doctorate holder has focused much of his attention on the Brexit issue — not many others stayed up to 4 a.m. to follow the referendum results. *** About Dr. Adam Bronstone Dr. Adam Bronstone is the Director of Planning for the Jewish Federation of Nashville. Dr. Bronstone holds a doctorate from the University of Hull (UK), where he specialized in European Union/European politics. He has published on a variety of related issues included security and political economic matters and is currently finishing a book for Routledge which examines the changing nature of political affiliation in the wake of the 2016 US election and the Brexit referendum. He stays in touch with his British colleagues on a regular basis and stayed up until 4am watching the Brexit vote.

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Similarities abound between the shocking election of Donald Trump to the president of the United States and the United Kingdom’s equally shocking approval of Brexit. Brexit is an abbreviation of “British exit,” and refers to the UK’s plan to depart the European Union. The official referendum was held throughout England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland on June 23, 2016, and the decision by popular vote was to leave. Those that support the measure to leave are called ‘Brexiters’ and they came out on top in all four UK countries. The factors behind Brexit were sovereignty and immigration. But every good thing has a flip side too. Along with the good that British people though would happen because of Brexit some negative consequence might also be seen. Throughout this report I’ll be discussion the impact the Brexit could possible make in UK and EU and rest of the world. Bangladesh is not above the impact of brexit. There are also some impact of brexit in economy of Bangladesh.

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The Rough Guide to Brexit. Presented at the Association of Language Companies' annual conference at the Eden Roc Miami May 2017 by Richard Brooks. It explores the following; where Brexit came from, who voted for Brexit, what lessons can we learn, the current economic problems and opporties in the UK and what the future might hold. The talk ends with the results of a survey of 100 C level business people in the UK.

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Vous avez toujours tout voulu savoir et vous n’avez jamais rien compris ? Les élèves de 1ére de la section européenne (option DNL Histoire Géographie) vous expliquent tout ! Malgré le confinement et les contraintes pédagogiques du travail à distance, Elise, Gia Bao et Leonardo ont continué à travailler: Etudier l'histoire (tumultueuse..) des relations entre le Royaume-Uni et l'Europe, suivre et décrypter l'actualité.

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Com os prazos do Brexit se esgotando, que escolhas restam ao Reino Unido fazer e quais as suas consequências? - Michael Leigh