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Queen's University Brexit Clinic Slides 25 Cctober 17
- 1. Prof David Phinnemore (@DPhinnemore) Prof Dagmar Schiek (@treup_QUB) Prof Lee McGowan (@leemcgowan3) Dr Viviane Gravey (@VGravey) QPol Brexit Clinic 25 October 2017
- 3. Article 50 Negotiations: where are we?
- 4. European Council (20 October) • Welcomes the progress made regarding citizens' rights • Acknowledges ‘some progress on convergence on principles and objectives regarding protection of the [GFA] and maintenance of the [CTA]’ • Notes UK will ‘honour its financial obligations taken during its membership, but this has not yet been translated into a firm and concrete commitment from the UK to settle all of these obligations’ • Will reassess the state of progress in the negotiations [in December] ‘with a view to determining whether sufficient progress has been achieved on each of the three above issues’
- 5. Northern Ireland in the Article 50 Negotiations • EU27: Guiding Principles for the Dialogue on Ireland/Northern Ireland (20 September) • European Parliament: Resolution on State of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom (3 October) • Theresa May: Belfast agreement must be ‘at the heart of our approach’; ‘unique circumstances demand specific solutions’; ‘vital that joint work on the peace process is not affected in any way; no physical infrastructure at the border; CTA must continue; ‘committed to delivering a flexible and imaginative approach’ (20 October) • European Council ‘expecting the UK to present and commit to flexible and imaginative solutions called for by the unique situation of Ireland’ (20 October)
- 7. Role of UK-based academics and public engagement…..? FACTUAL INFORMATION PROVIDING ANALYSIS RAISING QUESTIONS DETAILING POSSIBLE OPTIONS CONSIDERING SOLUTIONS BEING OBJECTIVE HAVING FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
- 8. Who wants to be Prime Minister now? Legacy? John Swinney MSP, 25.09.2017
- 9. Facts and Fiction Groundhog Day Impasse No Deal will be fine Growing Business Concerns CBI, Bloomberg –’stupidest thing a nation has ever done, bar elect Trump’ Political opinion shifting Trade deals are coming Northern Ireland a priority Boris Letter!
- 10. Northern Ireland in the Florence speech • Northern Ireland was barely mentioned and there was no detail about how to preserve a soft border in the Florence speech • New tensions had emerged in British/Irish relations – Coveney’s remarks but have softened again since Florence • However, the phrase ‘unique issues to consider’ is used (following on from the Irish government) • There is a commitment to prevent any physical infrastructure along the border and there is no reference to technical solutions • Greater contact between May and Varadkar before speech • GUE report – ‘Designated Special Status’; Jane Morrice – ‘Honorary Status’ for Northern Ireland • Absence of Executive? Some bitter pills to be taken by political parties – all island accepting EU regulatory standards – help agriculture • Longer term impact on British/Irish relations – ‘can only be damaging’ (Ahern)
- 11. Views from around the EU • Angela Merkel: “I don’t have any reason to believe we are not going to be successful,” she told reporters. The divorce talks, which are focused on the financial settlement, EU citizens’ rights and the Irish border, “may take a bit longer than we thought in the beginning, [but] it doesn’t mean, we are not working hard to reach the second stage, which is undeniably going to be more complicated than the first stage”. • “Great Britain has not been very clear about the details of that relationship. The European Union 27 may have certain ideas, but we haven’t put it down into clear terms.” • Emmanuel Macron: accused Brexiters of seeking to “bluff” the EU into softening its negotiating stance by championing a no-deal scenario. • In a dramatic intervention at a summit in Brussels, the French president said such an outcome was “in no case part of the discussions • Donald Tusk: EU must stay ‘united or face Brexit 'defeat‘ • BIGGER PICTURE FOR THE EU – POPULISM REMAINS AN ISSUE • My View: BREXIT is hideously more complicated than was ever acknowledged • And the wrong strategy but the people have spoken and …………so • Need to minimise the risks, create the imaginative solutions
- 13. Citizens’ rights Refers to situation of those who have actively relied on EU citizenship rights (current and former free movers, and their family) Unique situation of Ireland Belfast Agreement Border situation Remaining financial comittments • outstanding contributions • pensions for UK EU officials • Contingency fund • May: + future commitments How to get beyond phase one? And what’s in it for (Northern) Ireland? School of Law Professor Dagmar Schiek
- 14. • Residence rights • Continue accruing permanent residence • Retain current right to remain • doubts for non-economic residents • And for those without registration • Routine criminality checks • Residence for current and future family members • Residence beyond Dir 2004/38 • Economic residence for UK citizens in all 27 MS post “BD” • Social security • Enduring portability • agreed: uprated pensions • Mainly agreement re healthcare • Other benefits, including child benefits, disability benefits • Dynamic or static? School of Law Professor Dagmar Schiek • Social rights / equal treatment / effective economic participation • non economically active • Workers who enter up to “Brexit day” (BD) • Recognising UK citizens’ qualifications acquired after BD, or by non-movers • Effective enforcement • Direct effect • Authority of ECJ Citizen’s Rights – Five Problems
- 15. • Varadkar “There is a willingness to be flexible, to bend the rules for Northern Ireland and I really hope that Northern Irish political leaders and the community here in Northern Ireland take advantage of that” (BBC Spotlight 16 October) • My imaginative thinking • UK: devolve aspects related to Internal Market and Customs Union, no change to commitment to EU rules in NI Act, add ECJ authority • EU: accept small state analogy for Northern Ireland, accept external ECJ authority • EU as Community of Law cannot bend rules • This is also in the interest of the UK • Major obstacles to “cherry picking”: • WTO rules for Free Trade Agreements, even in border regions • Respect equality of Member States
- 17. UK policies, devolved policies or common frameworks? Welsh Assembly Research Service, Sept. 2017
- 18. CONTESTED COMMON FRAMEWORKS “We made clear, we are not opposed in principle to UK- wide frameworks in certain areas - but this must be on the basis of agreement among equals, not imposed by Westminster.” Welsh Assembly Research Service, Sept. 2017 John Swinney MSP, 25.09.2017
- 19. JMC(EN) Conclusions 16.10.2017 Common UK or GB? How is the type of framework decided? How are conflicts between the four administrations resolved? How are frameworks enforced? How are frameworks updated? “As the UK leaves the European Union, the Government of the United Kingdom and the devolved administrations agree to work together to establish common approaches in some areas that are currently governed by EU law, but that are otherwise within areas of competence of the devolved administrations or legislatures. A framework will set out a common UK, or GB, approach and how it will be operated and governed.” “This may consist of common goals, minimum or maximum standards, harmonisation, limits on action, or mutual recognition, depending on the policy area and the objectives being pursued.” “It will be the aim of all parties to agree where there is a need for common frameworks and the content of them” “Frameworks will respect the devolution settlements and the democratic accountability of the devolved legislatures…” “Frameworks will ensure recognition of the economic and social linkages between Northern Ireland and Ireland and that Northern Ireland will be the only part of the UK that shares a land frontier with the EU. They will also adhere to the Belfast Agreement.”