Colorado snow forecasting 101
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1) Meteorologist Joel Gratz created a forecasting website to share snow forecasts with skiers in Colorado after moving there and missing powder days due to inaccurate forecasts. 2) His website grew rapidly from 28 email subscribers to over 12 million pageviews per year as his forecasts improved by learning how Colorado's complex weather patterns produce snow. 3) Gratz's presentation explains how factors like mountain top temperatures between 0-10 degrees Fahrenheit, wind directions, and the right amount of moisture coming off the ocean are needed to produce the best snowfall in Colorado's mountains.
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Colorado snow forecasting 101
- 1. Colorado Snow Forecasting 101 Meteorologist Joel Gratz Photo: Connor Walberg ActionPhotoSchool.com
- 2. How this presentation will help you: 1) Remove mystery of Colorado weather. 2) Find the most snow.
- 3. Hi, I’m Joel Gratz. I grew up in Pennsylvania, ski raced and instructed, then moved to Colorado after college.
- 4. And I started to miss powder days due to inaccurate forecasts.
- 5. And it made me mad!
- 6. So I learned how to forecast in Colorado, and started to share. Dec 2007 28 people email list 2008-2009 500 people email list 2009-2010 245,000 pageviews 2010-2011 1,315,000 pageviews 2011-2012 3,330,000 pageviews 2012-2013 12,000,000 pageviews
- 8. Big Weather (primary care doctor) (knee surgeon)
- 10. 16 Day Forecast
- 11. 15 Day Forecast
- 12. 14 Day Forecast
- 13. 13 Day Forecast
- 14. 12 Day Forecast
- 15. 11 Day Forecast
- 16. 10 Day Forecast
- 17. 9 Day Forecast
- 18. 8 Day Forecast
- 19. 7 Day Forecast
- 20. 6 Day Forecast
- 21. 5 Day Forecast
- 22. 4 Day Forecast
- 23. 3 Day Forecast
- 24. 2 Day Forecast
- 25. 1 Day Forecast
- 27. When to trust the forecast 10 days + storm or no storm + cold, hot, dry, moist 3-5 days + details becoming clearer 1-2 days + details are as clear as possible
- 28. How to plan 7-10 days 4-5 days 2-3 days Toast to possibilities Clear your schedule Pretend you’re getting sick
- 29. Weather is not magic. It’s physics. Forecasts are rarely perfect, but they are getting better every year. Study them, don’t dismiss them.
- 30. Long range forecasts stink! We cannot reliably predict snow accumulations beyond about two weeks. Seasonal outlooks are even worse.
- 31. Weather happens when moist air gets high 1 2 3
- 32. Where’s the moisture? Less moisture (land source) Lots of moisture (ocean source) OK moisture (ocean + plants)
- 33. Orographics get air high
- 34. Mountains = Precipitation Indian Peaks / RMNP Park Range Flattops Gore Ten Mile & Mosquito Grand Mesa Elk Mtns N&S San Juans Sawatch Sangre de Christo East San Juans
- 35. Favorable wind directions Steamboat RMNP Summit Co. Aspen Powderhorn Vail Crested Butte Telluride Silverton Wolf Creek
- 36. Breckenridge: NW to N winds e or G ge n Ra Vail Pass
- 38. Beaver Creek: West winds e or G ge n Ra Beaver Creek Vail Vail Pass
- 43. Moisture in the air 10F 0F Temperature >> colder
- 44. The best snow requires... • Lots of moisture • Mountain top temperatures between about 0-10F • Not too much wind
- 45. Wind directions? Complicated. What about radar? Nope. There’s a problem...
- 47. Overshooting the Snow 0.5 deg
- 49. Steamboat Vail Aspen RMNP Summit Co. Crested Butte Telluride Wolf Creek http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/nexradinv/
- 50. Colorado is a state of extremes The difference between a wet year and a dry year can come down to the presence or absence of just a few major storms. Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
- 51. Colorado is a state of extremes More than half of the total annual precipitation falls in only 20% of the days when precipitation occurs. Joe Ramey, National Weather Service Grand Juntion, Slide #8 2009-2010 Winter Outlook for Colorado
- 53. Example: Schofield Pass 2 of 60 storms created 25% of the total season snow