This document outlines climate change risks and adaptation strategies for electrical systems. It discusses approaches to assessing climate change impacts through downscaling models. Key risks to generation, transmission and distribution systems are described, such as temperature changes, extreme weather, water availability issues. Adaptation measures are proposed for different technologies like updating design standards, operating procedures, installing new emissions controls or relocating vulnerable infrastructure. The presentation aims to facilitate long-term planning and resilience against climate change for electrical grid operators and utilities.

1. by
Janos Toth
February 6, 2013
Pacific Energy Innovation Association
February 6, 2013
Enginomix Consulting Inc.

2. Outline
 Approach to climate change risk management
 Impact of climate change on electrical systems
 Adaptation measures for generation
 Adaptation measures for transmission and distribution
 Conclusion
 Q&A
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3. Approach to Climate Change Risk
Management
Steps
 Downscaling from global model
 Impact assessment (primary, secondary, tertiary,
quaternary)
 Adaptation and adaptation measures
 Assessment of measures
 Revisit mitigation and adaptation measures
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4. Climate Change Impact on Electric Systems
Impact:
 Primary (for example temp. change, droughts)
 Secondary (pine beetle infestation, forest fires)
 Tertiary (water runoff change, water quality, flood)
 Quaternary (timber supply, corrosion rates)
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5. Downscaling
depts.washington.edu
Scales:
 Global
 Regional
 Local
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6. Downscaling
www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca
Models consider:
 Hydrology
 Vegetation
 Topography
 Social systems
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7. Climate Change Impact on Electrical Systems
Impact:
 Changing Temperature (warming or cooling)
 Precipitation change
 Wind change (velocity and direction)
 Raising sea and ocean levels
 Changing permafrost
 Biodiversity
 Regulatory items
 Other issues ( for example impact on personnel)
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8. Mountain Pine Beetle Climate Impact
• 8.5 million hectares
Lodgepole Pine
impacted (2005)
• Outbreak covers 60%
of Fraser Basin(>40%
Pine)

9. Climate Change Adaptation for Hydro
Generation
Impact:
 Shifts in Hydrology affecting water supply and runoff
timing
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patters
 Extreme events (drought, flood, dam safety design)
 Biodiversity
 Electricity System Management
 Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability issues)
 Water quality (turbidity, temperature), evaporation
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10. Climate Change Impact on Hydro Generation
Changes to BC Glaciers
• Glacial melt can provide a significant
source of water in Summer (buffers
short-term, year to year climatic
variations)
• Overall Mountain glaciers have
receded under warming temperature
over last century Glacier covered area
in BC decreased by about 10% of from
1985-2005
• Research in progress on climate
change impact to glarier runoff in BC
Robson Glacier, near Mica headwaters
Photos from Moore et al.,
Hydrological ProcessesEnginomix Consulting Inc.

11. Hydro Generation Impact Assessment
Glacier Mass Balance Models
Dynamic Glacier Models
Global Circulation Models
Hydrologic
Models
Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Regional
Climate Models
Statistical
Downscaling
Statistical
Downscaling
Reservoir Operations Models
System Optimization Models
Flow Scenarios
Resolution
~ 200 kilometer grids
Resolution
~ 45 kilometer grid
Resolution
for model requirements
Flow Scenarios
Utility,Hydro
Operator
ResearchFederal/IPCC
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12. Impact Assessment Process
Hydro Generation
Long-term planning models
Hydro Operator
Assess impact on
Finance, Environment, Society,
including
- Energy capability
- Operating criteria
- Dam safety
Hydro Operator
Flow scenarios
Develop long-term
acquisition plans
Integrated Electricity Plan
Hydro Operator
Critical water
Acquire resources
Build, Buy, Conserve
Operate with new resources
and operating criteria
Hydro OperatorHydro Operator
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13. Climate Change Adaptation for Fossil Fuel
Generation
Impact:
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns
 Extreme events (wind storms, ice storms, drought, flood, plant safety design)
 Biodiversity
 Electricity System Management
 Corrosion rate on components
 Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability issues)
 Emission limitation, air quality impact (CO2, Nox, particles, trace elements)
 Water quality impact
 Cooling water availability
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14. Climate Change Adaptation for Fossil Fuel
Generation
Adaptation:
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns (energy
storage, conservation measures)
 Extreme events (wind storms, ice storms, drought, flood, plant
safety design) change design standards, upgrade and relocate
facilities or provide flood protection
 Biodiversity (change design practices to account for new species)
 Electricity System Management (operating order changes)
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15. Climate Change Adaptation for Fossil Fuel
Generation
 Corrosion rate on components (new materials, and standards)
 Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability issues),
Change design and maintenance standards
 Emission limitation, air quality impact (CO2, SO2. NOx particles,
trace elements), Change operational standards, scrubbing
emissions, CO2 sequestration
 Water quality impact, (install additional water cleaning
facilities)
 Cooling water availability (additional reservoir or other water
storage)
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16. Climate Change Adaptation for Solar
Generation
Impact:
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns
 Extreme events (wind storms, ice storms, drought, flood,
plant safety design)
 Biodiversity
 Electricity System Management
 Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability
issues)
 Number of sunny and cloudy days
 Ice or snow cover on solar panels
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17. Climate Change Adaptation for Solar
Generation
Adaptation measures:
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns
(energy storage)
 Extreme events (wind storms, ice storms, drought, flood,
plant safety design) new design standards to cover events
 Electricity System Management, operational orders
 Number of sunny and cloudy days (weather forecast and
climate change studies
 Ice or snow cover on solar panels (hydrophobic coatings)
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18. Climate Change Adaptation for Wind
Generation
Impact:
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns
 Extreme events (wind storms, ice storms, drought, flood,
plant safety design)
 Biodiversity
 Electricity System Management
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19.  Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability
issues)
 Number of windy and calm days
 Wind velocity pattern change
 Ice or snow cover on wind turbines
Climate Change Adaptation for Wind
Generation
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20. Climate Change Adaptation for Wind
Generation
Adaptation:
 Changes to energy and peak load consumption patterns
(energy storage)
 Extreme events (wind storms, ice storms, drought, flood,
plant safety design) revised design and operational
standards)
 Electricity System Management (operational orders)
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21. Climate Change Adaptation for Wind
Generation
Adaptation:
 Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability issues),
hazard reviews and interventions)
 Number of windy and calm days (weather and climate
forecast studies)
 Wind velocity pattern change (wind studies and modified
operational guidelines)
 Ice or snow cover on wind turbines (hydrophobic coatings)
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22. Climate Change Impact on Transmission
Impact:
 Changes to energy and peak consumption patters
 Extreme events (drought, flood, wind and ice storms)
 Biodiversity
 Electricity System Management
 Drier summers (fire risk, mudslides, slope stability issues)
 Different kind of precipitation (wet snow, ice)
 Increased avalanche risk
 Pollution caused flashovers
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23. Climate Change Impact on T&D
Issues:
 Changes in wind speed (gust and turbulence) and direction
(increase failure rates, recovery time and overall reliability
 Changing wind direction damages tress that have adapted
to dominant wind direction
 Future location of wind generation
Adaptation
 Change design standard to new
withstand levels
 Change vegetation control practices
 Perform wind climate change studies
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24. Rising Sea/Ocean Levels
Impact
 Expected that sea/ocean water will rise up to 90 cm by 2100
 Facilities, estuaries could be in danger
 Seaside facilities at high voltage undersea cable terminals could
be under water
Sea shore terminal
Adaptation
 Change design and maintenance standards
 Relocate existing facilities
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25. Changing Permafrost
Impact
 Permafrost reduction of 15 – 30 % by 2050
 Facilities (structures, roads, railways, pipelines, buildings
etc. will be affected)
Pipeline in melted permafrost
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26. Changing Permafrost
Adaptation measures
 Change design standards, engineering solutions
 Change maintenance schedules
Maintenance in winter time for
transmission line in permafrost
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27. Biodiversity Change T&D
Impact:
 New species move into area (plans and animals)
 Outage problems
Adaptation:
 Change design and maintenance standards
 Different vegetation control practices
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28. Other climate Change Issues T&D
Issues
 Expected increase in lightning activities during storms
 Increased outages and forest fires
 Fog in certain areas, limit line access and increased cloud icing
and flash over
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29. Other climate Change Issues T&D
Adaptation:
 Change lighting protection (surge arresters etc.)
 Fire clearing around transmission and distribution lines
 Robotics and remote sensing implementation for T&D
SIREX helicopter
Hydro Quebec Linescout
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30. Other climate Change Issues T&D
Issues
 Change in vegetation growth rates, vegetation maintenance
frequency and cost will change
 Certain mosquito born illnesses spread better in warmer
weather affecting field personnel
Adaptation
 Risk assessment and mitigation
 Change in vegetation management standards and budgets
 Mosquito control and limit exposure
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31. Climate Change Issues Distribution
Issues:
 Urban environment
 Higher temperatures (microclimate)
 Higher pollution levels
 Load patterns in small area changing
Adaptation
 Energy storage for load peak shaving
 Corrosion resistant hardware
 Materials suitable for urban
environment
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32. Climate Change Issues T&D
Issues:
 Changing load capacity of lines
 Changing thermal capacity of equipment
Shaw ThermalRate Dynamic Thermal
Rating System
Adaptation
 Dynamic Thermal Circuit Rating (DTCR) for lines
 Dynamic rating for transformers, switch gear
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33. Other Climate Change Adaptation Measures
T&D
Adaptation
 Researching and applying high performance corrosion resistant
materials for transmission and distribution hardware and structures
 Review emergency response measures
 Incorporate climate change risks into corporate risk model
 Future plans to apply probabilistic planning techniques to assess the
reliability risks of climate change
Crossarm made of advanced high
performance composite material
FRP Transmission Innovations Inc.
British Columbia
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34. Conclusion
 Climate change will have adverse impact on the planning,
operation and asset management of the electrical system
 Electric utilities must address this issue by adopting new:
 Weather/ climate change modeling and forecast tools
 Risk analysis
 Asset management practices
 Design standards
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35. “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the
most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most
adaptable to change.”
Charles Darwin
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36. Contact
Janos Toth, Ph.D., P.Eng.,P.E., PMP
Enginomix Consulting Inc.
Vancouver BC
Ph: (604) 264-1564
E-mail: janos.toth@enginomix.com
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37. Questions
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