The document presents a study on climate change vulnerability in Jajarkot district, focusing on the use of secondary data to assess vulnerability indicators from 1981 to 2011. Key findings highlight the increasing sensitivity of the population, particularly among women, and the limitations in adaptive capacity, leading to higher vulnerability to climate change effects such as food and water shortages. The conclusion emphasizes the need for context-specific assessments and the importance of resilience-building through effective management of human-environment interactions.

1. Some Factors of Climate Change
Vulnerability in Jajarkot
Presented by: Ashesh Acharya
December 10, 2013

2. 1. Introduction
 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
describes a diverse set of methods used to
systematically integrate and examine impacts of
climate change on humans and their physical and
social surroundings (UNEP, 2004)
 This study uses limited indicators of climate
change vulnerability to observe the impacts of
climate change

3. 2. Objectives
 Understand the concept of climate change vulnerability
 Use secondary data to derive Climate Change Vulnerability
Index for Jajarkot district from 1981 to 2011
 Explain spatial and temporal variation in population
density
 Explain temporal variation in Climate Change
Vulnerability using Google earth maps

4. 3. Concept base
Source: Fussel, 2010

5. 4. Vulnerability scoping diagram
Polsky et al. 2007

6. 5. Methodology
Demographic, climatic
and, social variables
Composite indices on
sensitivity (SI),
exposure (EI),
adaptive capacity
(AC)
Climate
Change
Vulnerability
Index (CCVI)
Demographic: Less than 6 year population, greater than 65 year
population, population density (Population monograph 1971-2011, CBS, 2013)
Climatic : Temperature , precipitation, natural disasters (NASA, 2013)
Social: Population with higher education (Population monograph 1971-2011,
CBS, 2013)
Index =(observed – minimum) /
(maximum - minimum) (MOE,2010)
CCVI = SI+EI-AC

7. 5. Methodology (continued)
Exposure Index
• Temperature
anomalies for
1980s-2010s
• Natural
disasters
Adaptive capacity
• Population
with Higher
education
index
Sensitivity Index
• Population
less than 6
index
• Population
greater than 65
index
• Population
density index

8. 6. Components of sensitivity
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
1960 1980 2000 2020
Indexvalue
Year
6< index
<65 index
Pop Density index

9. 7. Components of vulnerability index
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
1960 1980 2000 2020
Indexvalue
Year
Sensitivity index
Adaptive
capacity index
Exposure index

10. 8. Temporal variation in VDC population density of
Jajarkot District, Nepal

11. 9. Temporal variation in Climate Change Vulnerability Index
Jajarkot District, Nepal

12. 10. Discussion
 The lack of health services, food and drinking water shortages and poor
sanitation makes children extremely vulnerable
 The increase in population density of Jajarkot is less compared to rise
of density in Kathmandu hence the curve is downward sloping
 VDCs at lower end of the district have higher increase in population
compared to VDCs at upper end
 The Sensitivity Index is gradually decreasing from 0.136 in 1971 to 0.093
in 2011. This change is at a national context.

13. 10. Discussion (continued)
 If higher and lower values of sensitivity factors are considered
only for Jajarkot district, there will be increase in sensitivity
 Women are more vulnerable compared to men as they have
lesser literacy (49%) and also lack assets (CBS, 2011)
 With rising temperature Jajarkot faces the risk of food and
drinking water shortages, one of the principal problems of the
district
 People in Jajarkot have high sensitivity and low adaptive
capacity making them vulnerable to climate change exposure
 Women are more vulnerable compared to men as they lack asset
as well as education

14. 11. Conclusion
 Climate change vulnerability is context specific and temporal
 Most of the vulnerability concepts have fallen short to encapsulate the concept
of social capital that is determining factor of adaptive capacity
 Vulnerability concepts mostly consider impacts of climate change to be
predictable and measurable
 Climate change impacts are erratic and unpredictable
 Building resilience requires institutions, organizations and management that
understand the human-environment interaction and linkages
 Vulnerability assessment has limitations but it is necessary to identify
vulnerable communities and ensure that policy measures are taken to establish
their well-being

15. 12. References
Central Bureau of Statistics Nepal (CBS), (1971-2011), Nepal population and housing census
District Disaster Preparedness and Response Plan (2011), District Natural Disaster Mitigation Committee, Jajarkot
Fussel, H.M. (2005). Vulnerability in Climate Change Research: A Comprehensive Conceptual Framework, Breslauer
Symposium, University of California International and Area Studies, UC Berkeley
Folke, C. et al., (2002), Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations,
The Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment
Report (Ch. 11). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
K.C.,B. et al. (2013), Developing a Climate Change vulnerability Index and forecasting future vulnerability for Nepal using
NASA EOS Data, NASA DEVELOP National Program
Ministry of Environment (2010), Climate Change Vulnerability mapping For Nepal
Polsky, C., R. Neff, and B. Yarnal, 2007: Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability
scoping diagram. Global Environmental Change, 17, 472-485.
United Nations Environment Program. (2001). Climate Change Fact Sheet. UNEP, France. Retrieved from http:/ /
www.unep.ch/resources/CFS/Sheet-1.2-30.2.pdf
United Nations Field Coordination Office (UNFCO), (2013), District profile Jajarkot