Ben Page presentation at CBI Climate Change Summit, 17 Nov 2010, London

1. Consumers and Climate
Change
Ben Page, Chief Executive Ipsos
MORI
ben.page@ipsos.com

2. 0
4
8
12
16
20
May
1997
May
1998
May
1999
May
2000
May
2001
May
2002
May
2003
May
2004
May
2005
May
2006
May
2007
May
2008
May
2009
May
2010
nly one person in 20 really worried
Cameron’s “Vote
Blue, go Green”
campaign at 2006
local elections
9/11 London
Bombs
Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic
cloud reaches northern Spain
Wettest Autumn since records
began – widespread flooding
across the UK
EC proposes
carbon emission
cuts of 20% by 2020
Hurricane in
Kensal Rise
Brown
becomes
PM
Stern
report
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age
18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Cameron
becomes
PM

3. 22
41
60
42
Uncertainty about the science and impacts
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that……?
Many scientific experts still
question if humans are
contributing to climate
change
% Disagree % Agree
I sometimes think climate
change might not be as bad
as people say
Base: 1,039 GB adults aged 15+, interviewed f-2-f and in home, 23-29 May 2008

4. 17
20
33
27
25
26
15
14
7
9
3
4
Half of the British public are sceptical of politicians’
motives
Base: Online survey, 1043 British adults aged 16-64, February 2010
% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither / nor
% Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree% % Don't know
Below are a number of statements that other people have made about climate change/global warming.
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of these statements?
Source: Ipsos MORI / Euro RSG
Politicians make a fuss
about climate change in
order to distract us from
other issues
Climate change is being
used by the government as
an excuse to raise taxes
50
47

5. 14
56
12
11
4 3
% Neither agree nor
disagree
% Strongly agree
% Don’t know / no
opinion
%Tend to disagree
% Tend to agree
% Strongly disagree
Base:1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th
January-26th
March 2010
Source: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI
The British public are uncertain about what the
effects of climate change will be
To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following
statements about climate change?
It is uncertain what the effects of climate change will be
69

6. 44
30
28
38
47
43
12
14
19
3
9
8
3
2
Concern around climate change remains
high..
2005
2008
2010
How concerned, if at all, are you about climate change, sometimes
referred to as ‘global warming’?
Source: 2010 and 2005: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI
Source: 2008 Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January-26th March 2010;
1,491 British adults, aged 15 and over, 1st
October – 6th
November 2005
% Not at all concerned% Not very concerned% Fairly concerned% Very concerned
% Don't know/No opinion

7. What about business?

8. 8 40 31 9
% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree
Public split on importance of CSR to
brand choice
I am more likely to choose one brand over another if I know they take their social and environmental responsibilities
seriously

9. 59
21
33
43
36
1810
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
% Strongly disagree % Tend to disagree % Tend to agree % Strongly agree
Large increase in proportion saying they try to
buy Fair Trade in just three years
2008
I try to buy ‘Fair Trade’ products where possible
2005

10. Views of packaging have hardened over time
 ‘Amount of packaging’ a bigger consumer concern than food
miles, Fair Trade, overall carbon footprint
 In the same vein, more people now agree that packaging is "a
major environmental problem"
79
82
68
71
%
% think food is over
packaged
% agree packaging is
a “major
environmental
problem”
1997 2008

11. Plenty of evidence that short-term
concerns win over ‘green’ issues
ource: Advertising green products today: A view from The Futures Company July 2010

12. Interest in the general, aversion to the
specific
Percentage
of
people
who…
…are
concerned
about
climate
change
83%
…prefer to buy
environment
ally friendly
products
77%
Source: Defra Tracking Report 2006; Green and Ethical Consumers, Mintel, 2007; British Airways
…report using carbon
offsetting for their
flights
2%
…regularly carbon
offset their
flights
0%
…would pay
more for
environ-
mentally
friendly
products
39%
…claim to take
action to
reduce
environ-mental
impact of their
travel*
19%
* Proportion of respondents who report taking one or more of the following steps: using more environmentally friendly transport, cutting down holiday flights or carbon offsetting
flights

13. Sustainability remains a key issue – but
needs to link to brand choices
ource: Marketing, 29/9/10
General attitudes and good
intent count for little at the
moment of choice in-store
 Hence increasing activity
being brand-focussed, not
CSR in the conventional
sense
 We need to balance out the
need for sustainability with
other key goals for brands –
visibility, consumer
acceptance
– At times there will be a conflict

14. Which behaviours? Perceptions of impact on
climate change
8
4%
7%
10%
10%
11%
16%
17%
22%
34%
40%
26%
8%
7%
17%
38%
11%
33%
29%
7%
Recycling
Developing cleaner engines for cars
se: All respondents 2,037. Fieldwork dates: 14th
– 20th
June 2007
Q Which of the actions on this list, if any, do you think will do the
most to help reduce climate change?
Avoiding creating waste in the first place
Making fewer car journeys
Using less electricity
Taking fewer foreign holidays
Walking or cycling
Using public transport
Buying locally-grown food
People having fewer children
General
public
Experts

15. Need legislation plus social
marketing. ….to overcome
the challenge of cognitive
polyphasia…

16. Successful behavioural change campaigns use a mix
of informing, enabling, incentivising and enforcing
Source: Websites, press search
– Publicise perils of
climate change for
next generation
– Publicise benefits of reducing
greenhouse emissions (e.g.,
Action Blue Sky in Hong Kong)
– Make energy
saving easy
– Give them the
tools
– Invest in public
transport
– Identify energy-
efficient devices
– Discounts on
energy saving
light bulbs
– Tax petrol and aviation
fuel
– Subsidise R&D into
sustainable fuels
– Create car pool lanes
– Fines for not
recycling – Ban use of CFCs and
other greenhouse gases
Influence
Incentivise
Inform
Enable
Enforce

17. But you can also learn from behavioural
science
Influence
Incentivise
Inform
Enable
Enforce
– People make choices
without going through a full
‘rational’ decision-making
process’
– Certain innate biases pre-
dispose people to short-cut
decision-making processes
– Applying these biases in a
systematic way can make
behavioural change
campaigns significantly more
likely to succeed

18. 1
Short-circuiting the rational
decision making process
Gather pertinent
information
Process pertinent
information
Calculate optimal
choice
Rational
process ‘Rational
decision’
Decide
based on
faulty cal-
culations
Decide without
fully
processing
the facts
‘Irrational
decision
’
Short-
circuits
of the
‘rational’
process
Decide
without all the
data/using
irrelevant
data

19. Question
 What percentage of
African countries
are members of the
United Nations?

20. Evidence – anchoring
Source: Kahneman and Tversky, 1974
Numbers
shown on
“roulette”
wheel
Mean
estimate of
respondents
10
65
25%
45%

21. Example bias – anchoring
People’s estimates
are swayed by data
suggested to them
beforehand, even
when they know the
data is irrelevant or
false.
Source: Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Tversky (1974); McKinsey synthesis

22. Case study – anchoring
Source: 5 a Day campaigns in Argentina, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Spain, UK, US

23. Case study – anchoring!
Source: 6 a Day campaign in Denmark

24. Example bias – Social norms
Source: Bandura, Grusec and Menlove (1967); Milgram et al (1969); Cialdini; McKinsey synthesis
People tend to
follow their peer
group – if they
see many people
doing something,
they aim to do it
too.

25. 13%
21%
12%
2%
39%
14%
Social norms - Support for collective action
Strongly agree
I would do more to try to stop climate change if other
people did more, too
Tend to agree
Tend to disagree
Strongly disagree
Don’t know
Neither/nor
Base: 2,037 British adults, 14th
– 20th
June 2007

26. People often stay
with the status
quo, even if it
costs them more
to do so
Example bias – status quo
Source: Kahneman, Knetsch and Thaler (1991); McKinsey synthesis

27. Case study – status quo

28. Evidence – status quo
Source: Benartzi and Thaler, Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral Economics to Increase Employee Saving, 2001
11.6
3.5
 Month 28 Month 0
In 28 months average
savings increased by
more than 300%
Each time an
employee
receives a pay
rise….
….An additional 3% of
his/her income is
channelled into a
savings scheme
Average savings per
employee (% of
income)
“Save More Tomorrow” Plan

29. You are more
likely to obtain a
large
commitment if
you obtain a
small one first.
Example bias – reciprocity
Source: Festinger, 1957; Cialdini (2006); McKinsey synthesis

30. Evidence – Encouraging Reciprocity
Source: Influence: the psychology of persuasion, Cialdini, 2006 edition, Ipsos MORI research
Ask
neighbour
to “watch
my things”
Leave
without
asking
2. Leave the
radio to go
swimming
1. Experimenter
sits on beach
with a radio
3. Thief tries to
steal the radio
20% try to stop
the thief
95% try to stop
the thief
4. Test public
reaction

31. Behavioural Norms you might exploit….
Decide without
all the data/using
irrelevant data
Decide without
fully processing
all the facts
Decide
based on faulty
calculations
Short-circuits of rational
decision-making process
Reciprocity Liking
Consistency Scarcity Endowment
Social norms Authority
Status quo
Availability/
recency
Choice
overload
Justifiability Anchoring
Breakpoints
Certainty
preference
Loss aversion
Probability
misassessment
Regret aversion
Framing/
contrast
Hyperbolic
discounting
Mental
accounting
Biases
False memory

32. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
AIDS awareness change in the UK
Source: Health Profile of England and Wales
 Number of diagnoses of gonorrhoea
 Thousands, in England and Wales

33. Action across multiple fronts to reduce STIs
Influence
Incentivise
Inform
Enable
Enforce
BBC programming about AIDS
Distribution of free condoms
“Tombstone” campaign
Use of numerous biases including Authority,
Liking, Hyperbolic Discounting, Probability
Misassessment and Social norm
None

34. Social norm: James Bond and the decline in STIs in
the 1980s
Source: Avert; BBC; www.universalexports.net
0
1
2
3
Average Bond girls per film by actor
Connery
Lazenby
Moore
Dalton
Brosnan
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

35. Three questions that need a “yes”
answer
Define the shift
you want to see
Devise the actions
to deliver the shift
Execute and
monitor the results
Do you really understand your
target audience and what
drives their behaviour?
How are you going to define and
measure success?
Have you lined up the right
partners to help reach and
influence the target audience?

36. Bottom line – have to show consumer
benefit (and nudge)
 Concern is not rising…
 Socially and environmentally responsible shopping appears
to have plateaued and brands can no longer charge more for
this
 While there is an increasing expectation that brands offer
such options, but need to illustrate the pay-off for
consumers
– Consumers want ‘fair trade’ and expect it in many ways, but they will
not want to pay more for it, especially for smaller ticket items
– Emotional pay-offs are important, but it needs to be more than just
‘feel good about our brand’; consumers want to know what it does
for them
 Still huge potential for nudging, and remember internal
benefits as well – people want to do the right thing…

37. ben.page@ipsos.com

38. Daily Mail
DailyExpress
The Sun
The Mirror
Daily Record
Financial Times
The Metro
Other
Daily TelegraphNone of these
Evening Standard
Daily Star
The Independent
The Scotsman
The Guardian
The Times
The Herald (Glasgow)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
% pollution/environment is
important issue
Pollution/environment: by daily readership
Base: 8,848 GB adults, 18+ Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: Annual aggregate 2007