Climate Change and IWMI: Global Analysis of Kyoto Protocol -CDM AR and H20 Robert Zomer Deborah Bossio Antonio Trabucco Oliver Van Straaten

1. Climate Change and IWMI:
Global Analysis of
Kyoto Protocol - CDM AR and H20
Robert Zomer
Deborah Bossio
Antonio Trabucco
Oliver Van Straaten

2. Aspects of Climate Change
• Local
– Wetting or drying
– Increased uncertainty in rainfall
– Livelihoods and vulnerability
– Increased extreme events
• Global
– Direct climate change impacts on production, farming
systems, food security water supply, ecosystems…
– International treaties affect land use and indirectly affect
water use
• New partnerships
– Global change research community

3. Global Issue
• Various International Treaty Conventions and
Agreements are currently in effect:
– Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC), Biodiversity Convention,
Desertification, etc..
• “Hidden” Water Dimension (water use and supply) of
Agreements not necessarily taken into account,
and/or treated as ancillary issue.

4. Kyoto Protocol CDM-AR
• Kyoto Protocol has been ratified in 2005
– Kyoto calls for mandatory reductions of emissions to 1992
levels for Annex I Parties.
– The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows for
countries to trade carbon credits for investing in carbon
reducing projects in Non-Annex I countries.
– One percent of all the required reductions is allowed to be
satisfied by “carbon sink” projects, (CDM-AR)
• afforestation and reforestation, tree plantations, agroforestry
(2008-2012)
– This potentially represents billions of dollars flowing into
developing countries and development.

5. Global Analysis of CDM-AR impacts on water related
issues
• Questions:
– Where is the land suitable for these CDM-AR projects?
• What is there now (current landuse)
• What kind of land is it (elevation, slope, NPP, degradation)
• Who is there now (population density)
– How much land is actually required to meet the CDM-AR cap (1%
of total CO2 reductions)?
– If those sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact on
water cycles
• Globally, regionally, locally

6. How much land is suitable and where is it?

7. How much land is suitable and where is it?
• Suitable land >700 Mha
• 46% is in South America
• 27% is in SS Africa
• More than 75% of suitable lands in Asia
are classified as agricultural land use.
Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Existing Landuse Type
350
300
250
Barren or Sparsely Vegetated
200
Savanna
Mixed Shrubland/Grassland
150
Cropland
100
50
0
South Subsahara South Asia SouthEast East Asia
America Africa Asia
Region

8. How many people live on that land?
Almost all of the biophysically suitable
land with low population density is
found in Africa and South America
Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Population Density
250
200
150 East Asia
South-east Asia
South Asia
Sub-Sahara Africa
100 South America
50
0
0
0
5
10
25
50
00
00
0
0
0
0
0
40
10
20
30
50
75
-
10
10
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
6
11
26
>
-
1
51
1
1
1
1
30
1
10
20
40
50
75
Population Density

9. What is the potential of CDM AR projects to
mitigate land degradation, globally?
• Only 2 - 3 % of
eligible lands are
required to meet
the current CDM
sink cap
– 1.4 Million Sq Km
• Globally CDM-AR
is a ‘drop in the
bucket’ to help
address enormous
scope of land
degradation

10. Hydrological impacts of implementing CDM-AR projects
If suitable sites were converted to trees, what would be the impact
on water cycles
•Globally, regionally, locally
Tested for methods that could be easily applied at global scale, and as a
support tool for feasibility studies associated with local reforestation.
A monthly Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water budget is calculated as:
SWC is the soil water content
EPrec is the effective precipitation
∆SWC = E Pr ec − AET − R
AET is the Actual Evapotranspiration
R is the Excess Water or Runoff

11. Increase in Vapor Flows
(AET) with CDM-AR
• Large areas exhibit significant
increases in vapor flow
• Drier areas,
• Semi-arid tropics,
• Conversion from grasslands
• Conversion from subsistence ag
•Significant variation amongst biomes
and bioclimatic zones

12. Decrease in Runoff
with CDM-AR
Low Impact - 20%
Moderate Impact - 28%
High Impact - 25%
Severe Impact - 27%
Land Suitable for CDM-AR by Decrease in Runoff (%)
250.00
200.00
150.00 East Asia
South-East Asia
South Asia
SubSahara Africa
100.00
South America
50.00
0.00
0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100
Decrease in Runoff (%)
Global Impact: Minimal
Locally and Regionally: potentially significant

13. Four Case Studies of Local Impact:
• Four Case Study Sites:
– Ecuador
• Coastal Tropical
– Pasture to Mixed Native Agroforestry
• Sierras
– Community Forestry - Pine Plantation
– Bolivia
• Amazon -
– Small Farm Agroforestry
• Sierras - Tunari National Park
– Ecological Restoration
– Native Species

14. Local Impact:
Water Use Change with CDM-AR Project:
Precipitation: 900 mm
Impact: High Impact (27%)
Possible Flood Mitigation
Tunari National Park: Bolivia

15. Chapare Case Study – Bolivian Amazon
Community Based Agroforestry
Annual Precipitation: > 3000
Impact Minimal with 100% Adoption

16. Guamote Study Site - Ecuador
Precipitation: 700 mm
Impact: Severe
Ground Water Decrease

17. Conclusion
• H2O Dimension of Multilateral Treaties
– Needs to be explicitly articulated
• Local Impact of CDM-AR Can Be Significant
– Communities, Food Security, Ecosystem
• Model results can be applied to optimize
planning and mitigate impact
• Model can be used to quantify impact of trees in
the landscape under range of scenarios

18. Thank You…