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Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig

Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig

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Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig Digital Instant Download Author(s): Cynthia Rosenzweig, WilliamD. Solecki, Stephen A. Hammer, Shagun Mehrotra ISBN(s): 9781107004207, 1107004209 Edition: 1 File Details: PDF, 13.39 MB Year: 2011 Language: english
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Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network Urban areas are home to over half of the world’s people and are at the forefront of the climate change issue. Climate change exerts added stress on urban areas through increased numbers of heat waves threatening the health of the elderly, the infirm, and the very young; more frequent and intense droughts and inland floods compromising water supplies; and for coastal cities, enhanced sea level rise and storm surges affecting essential infrastructure, property, ecosystems, and inhabitants. At the same time, cities are responsible for no less than 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and given current demographic trends, this level will likely only increase over time. These challenges highlight the need for cities to rethink how assets and people are deployed and protected, how infrastructure investments are prioritized, and how climate will affect long-term growth and development plans. Work on the First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) was launched by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) in November 2008 with the goal of building the scientific basis for city action on climate change. The authors include experts from cities in both the developing and developed world, representing a wide range of disciplines. The book focuses on how to use climate science and socio-economic research to map a city’s vulnerability to climate hazards, and how cities can enhance their adaptive and mitigative capacity to deal with climate change over different timescales. The volume is structured to communicate to a range of groups important for urban decision-making: • The Executive Summary is invaluable for mayors, city officials, and policymakers; • The Urban Climate, Land Use, and Governance chapters are of great interest to urban sustainability officers and urban planners; • The Sector chapters are important for mid-level urban stakeholders in agencies charged with developing climate change mitigation and adaptation programs; • The entire volume, including the framing Urban Climate Change in Context and the Cities, Disasters, and Climate Risk chapters, provides a broad spectrum of climate change knowledge to researchers, professors, and advanced students. Cynthia Rosenzweig is a Senior Research Scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies where she heads the Climate Impacts Group. She recently co-chaired the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a body of experts convened by the Mayor to advise the city on adaptation for its critical infrastructure. She co-led the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, sponsored by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. She was a Coordinating Lead Author of the IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report, and served on the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis. A recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship, she joins impact models with climate models to project future outcomes of both land-based and urban systems under altered climate conditions. She is a Professor at Barnard College and a Senior Research Scientist at the Earth Institute at Columbia University. William D. Solecki is a Professor in the Department of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York. He has led or co-led numerous projects on the process of urban environmental change and transformation. As Director of the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, he has worked extensively on connecting cutting-edge urban environmental science to everyday practice and action in cities. He most recently served as Co-Chair of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, as Co-Principal Investigator of the Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State (ClimAID), and as Co-Leader of the Metropolitan East Coast Assessment of the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. He is a Lead Author of the IPCC Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report. He is also a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Urban and Global Environmental Change core project of the International Human Dimensions Programme. Stephen A. Hammer is the President of Mesacosa LLC, a consultancy that conducts research on urban energy and climate issues in cities around the globe. He was formerly Executive Director of the Energy Smart Cities Initiative, a project of the Joint U.S.-China Collaboration on Clean Energy (JUCCCE), running energy and climate policy training and technical assistance programs for local governments in China. He is also the past director of the Urban Energy Program at Columbia University’s Center for Energy, Marine Transportation and Public Policy. He has authored or co-authored dozens of policy studies and journal articles on urban sustainability planning, urban energy systems, distributed generation technology and the impacts of climate change on local and regional energy networks. He is an Adjunct Professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, a member of New York City Mayor Bloomberg’s Energy Policy Task Force, and a consultant to the OECD and the World Bank. Shagun Mehrotra is Managing Director of Climate and Cities, an international policy advisory facility at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research. As a Columbia University Faculty Fellow, he provides research and policy advice focusing on infrastructure economics and finance, development economics and poverty reduction in slums. He has developed a comprehensive framework for city climate risk assessment that combines hazards, vulnerabilities and agency. Previously, he was on the staff of the World Bank, leading infrastructure reform of state-owned utilities in Africa. Over the last decade, his advice has been sought by national and local governments in East Africa, South-East Asia, China and India, as well as the United Nations Human Development Report, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Columbia Earth Institute. His co-authored book, Bankruptcy to Billions: How the Indian Railways Transformed, was recently launched by the President of India.
From the Forewords to this book: “ … innovative and important. … I am convinced that this body of knowledge will be of direct benefit and inspiration to the cities which we are supporting to develop climate action plans.” Anna Tibaijuka, Former Under-Secretary General of the United Nations and Former Executive Director, UN-HABITAT “I am highly appreciative of the work of the members of the UCCRN from developing and developed cities who are participating in the ARC3 activity. Policymakers, administrators, and researchers from cities around the world will benefit from the information provided in ARC3, helping them make more informed decisions about how climate change will affect public health, local infrastructure, and in turn, our economic vitality in the coming decades.” Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India “The strategies explored in this text will not only help to guide individual local government efforts, but also help to tell the story of the critical importance of local action. The best scientific data tell us that it is long past time to address that challenge. And the best demographic data tells us that cities must lead the way. … The ARC3 project will help ensure that we not only create a greener, greater New York for future generations, but that we continue to learn from the lessons of our counterparts across the world, and that we share our progress and our story with our partners throughout government, academia, and the private sector.” Michael R. Bloomberg, Mayor, New York City “[This] new volume … is a lifeline to sustainability. … The authors of this remarkable report … are at the cutting edge of global science and policy. … The work is a triumph, a must-read study for city planners, mayors, and managers around the world. The lead editors … merit our special thanks and admiration for taking on a challenge of such global significance, and for bringing the best of the world’s scientific knowledge together in such a useful and comprehensive manner.” Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and Special Advisor to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on the Millennium Development Goals Other praise for this book: “As the pioneer of a global movement of local climate actions since early 1990s, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability welcomes ARC3. It provides key information that local governments need to develop effective plans and programs addressing climate change. UCCRN researchers synthesize knowledge and best practices for both mitigation and adaptation for crucial urban sectors and systems including water, energy, transportation, and public health. This valuable scientific compilation helps local decision makers and municipal officials play a vital leadership role in climate change action in their cities, regions, countries and beyond.” Konrad Otto-Zimmermann, ICLEI (Local Governments for Sustainability) Secretary General “For the challenges that a city such as Mexico City must face, efforts like ARC3 are crucial to provide the much-needed scientific assessment to effectively address climate change.” Mayor Marcelo Ebrard of Mexico City “Cities need increasingly sound scientific knowledge to take decisions related to combating climate change. We therefore welcome initiatives like the ARC3 and hope that cities all over the world can benefit from its findings.” Mayor Gilberto Kassab of São Paulo “The First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities is a critical piece in helping cities to develop sound, science-based policies to address the climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges they face.” Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State “Cities are leaders in taking action to fight climate change. ARC3 is a must read for city leaders who want to incorporate the most current understanding of climate change science in cities into their decision-making.” David Miller, former Mayor of Toronto and former Chair of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group “ARC3 fills a critical gap in addressing climate change issues in Indonesia’s vulnerable and diverse urban areas such as Jakarta, Palangkaraya, and Samarinda city.” Senator Hambdani and Senator Bambang Susilo, Indonesia
Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network Edited by Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York William D. Solecki Hunter College, City University of New York Stephen A. Hammer Mesacosa, LLC and Columbia University, New York Shagun Mehrotra Columbia University, New York Urban Climate Change Research Network Center for Climate Systems Research Earth Institute, Columbia University
C A M B R I D G E U N I V E R S I T Y P R E S S Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107004207 © Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University 2011 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2011 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-107-00420-7 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
v Contents Foreword - Anna Tibaijuka Foreword - Rajendra Kumar Pachauri Foreword - Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg Foreword - Jeffrey D. Sachs Preface xiii Executive Summary xv Part I:╇ Introduction 1 1 Urban climate change in context 3 Part II:╇ Defining the risk framework 13 2 Cities, disasters, and climate risk 15 3 Urban climate: processes, trends, and projections 43 Part III:╇ Urban sectors 83 4 Climate change and urban energy systems 85 5 Climate change, water, and wastewater in cities 113 6 Climate change and urban transportation systems 145 7 Climate change and human health in cities 179 Part IV:╇ Cross-cutting issues 215 8 The role of urban land in climate change 217 9 Cities and climate change: the challenges for governance 249 Conclusion:╇ Moving forward 271 Appendix A:╇ City case studies and topics in vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation 273 Appendix B:╇ Acronyms and abbreviations 275 Appendix C:╇ Steering Group, ARC3 authors, and reviewers 277 Index╇ 281
vii Foreword - Anna Tibaijuka The world rapidly urbanizing, and a majority of the global population will experience climate change in cities. Climate change will exacerbate the existing urban environmental management challenges in cities – in most cases making existing problems much worse. Additionally, it is the urban poor, who often are forced to live in flood- and landslide-prone areas and who face other vulnerabilities, who will bear a dispropor- tionate share of the effects of climate change. Though cities are vulner- able to the effects of climate change, they are also uniquely positioned to take a global leadership role in both mitigating and adapting to it. As cities begin to develop climate change action plans there is great need for a mechanism by which research and expert knowledge may contribute to the development and implementation of effective urban climate change policies and programs. Since responding to the com- plex challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation requires a knowledge-based approach, the First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) provides a tool for policymakers as they “mainstream” responses to climate change in urban areas. The ARC3, a project of the Urban Climate Change Research Net- work (UCCRN), is innovative and important. It supports the work of local government officials and local researchers and complements the work of the already-existing body of knowledge developed by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by addressing the needs of cities. ARC3 provides the scientific base needed for sound mitigation and adaptation decision-making on a sector-by-sector basis, mirroring the administrative structure of a city. The UCCRN’s goal of turning the ARC3 process into an on-going initiative is also critical. Climate science is ever-evolving and cities are constantly reacting to and proactively addressing their unique climate change challenges. With the support of the research community, cities around the world will now have access to the latest information and the most robust understanding of climate change available. I therefore applaud the work of groups such as UCCRN and the many researchers from both developing and developed cities contrib- uting to this important research initiative and creating a mechanism to help cities further empower themselves. We will promote the use of the information compiled in ARC3 through our Cities and Climate Change Initiative and through our collaboration frameworks with other organi- zations, including the Joint Work Programme between the World Bank, UN-HABITAT and UNEP, supported by the Cities Alliance. I am convinced that this body of knowledge will be of direct benefit and inspiration to the cities which we are supporting to develop climate action plans. It will help cities make more informed decisions about how climate change will affect public health, local infrastructure, and in turn, their own economic vitality in the coming decades. Anna Tibaijuka Former Under-Secretary General of the United Nations Former Executive Director, UN-HABITAT
viii Foreword - Rajendra Kumar Pachauri Clearly, cities are playing an increasing role in responding to climate challenges and are therefore in need of knowledge to aid in their policy development. The First Assessment Report on Climate Change in Cities (ARC3), a project of the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), is particularly useful in this regard. The ARC3 provides a scientific assessment of climate change in cities, presenting the informa- tion necessary for sound mitigation and adaptation decision-making on a sector-by-sector basis. By specifically addressing climate change in cities, the ARC3 supports the work of local governments, officials and researchers, and complements the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided the global community with up-to- date knowledge about the impacts of climate change. It projected that climate change will lead to a number of consequences for urban areas, including declining air quality, an increased number and severity of heat waves in cities in which heat waves already occur, increased pressure on infrastructure, and augmented stress on water resources. Furthermore, the Fourth Assessment Report noted that residents of some cities in the world, including some in Europe and the USA, have experienced high levels of mortality due to the impacts of extreme climate events. The 2003 European heat-related deaths and the deaths of over 1,000 people in New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina are two examples of this. The IPCC Fifth Assessment, now underway, will continue to address these important issues, building on the work of the ARC3. Due to the evolving nature of climate science, developing the ARC3 process into one that issues reports for cities on a regular basis is impor- tant. The UCCRN researchers will thus provide crucial information to urban decision-makers in a timely way as scientific understanding progresses. I am highly appreciative of the work of the members of the UCCRN from developing and developed cities who are participating in the ARC3 activity. Policymakers, administrators, and researchers from cities around the world will benefit from the information provided in ARC3, enabling them to develop effective programs for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ix Foreword - Michael R. Bloomberg Cities are the vanguard in the battle against climate change. We are the source of approximately 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emis- sions. And densely populated urban areas, particularly coastal cities, will disproportionately feel the impacts of climate change. Those of us in local government recognize the importance of national and interna- tional leadership on climate change. But we also are not waiting for others to act first. Through PlaNYC, New York City’s comprehensive sustainability plan that we released in April 2007, we are working to create a greener, greater New York. Many of the 127 initiatives in the plan focus on reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. These initiatives, including the Greener, Greater Buildings Plan, which will increase the energy effi- ciency of existing buildings, will help us meet our goal of reducing the city’s carbon emissions by 30 percent by 2030. Four years after launching PlaNYC, we are seeing the benefits of our efforts. Our greenhouse gas emissions are down by over 12 percent from 2005 levels, and we’ve developed the City’s first official climate change projections. We are now in the process of updating PlaNYC, and also doing more to draw on the creativity of New Yorkers in every borough. At the same time, we are learning from our colleagues across the world who are undertaking ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation programs. Five years ago, 18 of the world’s great cities came together, to share best practices and make common cause in the effort to reduce green- house gas emissions. This group of 18 eventually grew into what is now the C40 Climate Leadership Group, a network of 40 of the largest cities in the world. The Urban Climate Change Research Network recognizes the potential and responsibility of cities to enact change, and highlights the strategies employed by cities across the globe who are leading the way towards a sustainable future. The strategies explored in this text will not only help to guide individual local government efforts, but also help to tell the story of the critical importance of local action. The best scientific data tell us that it is long past time to address that challenge. And the best demographic data tell us that cities must lead the way. Cities have demonstrated that we are prepared to boldly confront climate change. As mayors, we know that we don’t have the luxury of simply talking about change without delivering it. The ARC3 project will help ensure that we not only create a greener, greater New York for future generations, that we continue to learn from the lessons of our counterparts across the world, and that we share our progress and our story with our partners throughout government, academia, and the private sector. Michael R. Bloomberg Mayor, New York City
x Foreword - Jeffrey D. Sachs The twenty-first century will be the age of sustainable development - or the age of ruin. Worldwide economic growth over the past two centuries has brought remarkable progress but also remarkable risk. By mobilizing fossil fuels, humanity lifted itself from the ancient scourges of hunger, disease, and early death. Living standards and income levels in many parts of the world soared beyond the wildest of expecta- tions. Yet these gains are now bringing new and grave threats as well. Humanity has inadvertently pushed against the planet’s safe boundaries regarding greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes, pollution, and human-induced threats to biodiversity and public health. In the coming decades, the core challenge of societies around the world will be to refashion our ways of life – living patterns, technologies, and economic systems – so that we can combine the benefits of economic development with sustainable management of the Earth’s ecosystems. Cities will be at the center of this unique and unprecedented chal- lenge. During the past decade, humanity reached the decisive halfway point on the path to urbanization. From time immemorial until the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, almost all of humanity lived as subsistence farmers in the rural areas. Starting two centuries ago, with the mobilization of new energy resources and technologies, including in food production, humanity began a long-term transition to urban living. As farmers became more productive, a declining share of the population could feed the rest. For generations now, the children of farm families have been heading to the cities for a new urban life. Today, the UN tells us that a little more than 50 percent of the world now lives in cities, and that by 2050 the proportion is likely to rise to nearly 70 percent. How cities are structured – in the patterns of residential settlements, commercial and industrial land use, energy systems, transport networks, water and sewerage infrastructure, public health management, and more – will not only determine the quality of life of the majority of the world’s population, but also whether humanity, at long last, is able to live sus- tainably with nature. To learn to do so is vital. Our livelihoods and very lives will depend on it. But it will not be easy by any means. The scale, scope, and complexity of the challenge will rival any that humanity has faced in recent centuries. The new volume produced by the scientists of the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) is a lifeline to sustainability. We should be grateful that leading scientists from around the world have taken up the challenge of sustainable urbanization, with a specific focus on the interrelationship of city life and human-induced climate change. The authors of this remarkable report, the First Assessment Report of the UCCRN, are at the cutting edge of global science and policy. Every essay emphasizes the complexity of the challenges ahead, and how we are just at the start of reshaping our cities for sustainability. As this report makes amply clear, climate change will be a vital entry point for achieving sustainable development in the world’s cities. While climate change is just one of several environmental challenges facing the world, it is the largest, most complex, and most urgent. There can be no answers to other challenges of sustainable development – safe water, clean and abundant energy, and urban public health – unless they are also answers to the climate-change conundrum. As this volume explains, there are two interrelated aspects of the climate change puzzle. The first is adaptation. Human-induced climate change is already underway and will intensify in the coming decades. The cities will be threatened in several major ways, and every city must plan ahead to confront, manage, and where possible, fully head off the growing risks. Heat waves will threaten lives of vulnerable populations such as the elderly. Droughts, floods, and other natural hazards will become more frequent, though the vulnerability of specific cities will vary widely depending on their physical geography, climatology, level of economic development, the quality of governance, social cohesion, and the financial capacity to adjust. Rising sea levels may play havoc with coastal cities, submerging some areas, and making others far more vulnerable to storm surges, or adversely impacting key infrastructure. The other major challenge is climate change mitigation: reducing humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions in order to slow and eventually to stop or even reverse the human impacts on the climate. Mitigation is every bit as complex as adaptation, and often the two are closely intertwined. Green buildings can both reduce energy use and also increase resilience to heat waves and other climate hazards. Mitigation will require major long-term changes to energy systems, the design of buildings, transport networks, and urban spatial patterns and zoning. Changing these fundamental attributes of cities will often involve making deep changes in the fabric of city life and its underlying eco- nomics. Yet the task of mitigation, essentially moving to a low-carbon society, will have to be carried out in thousands of cities around the world. The process will require decades of persistent and creative poli- cymaking to achieve. There is no better place to start charting that tran- sition than with this pioneering report. Humanity is in uncharted territory. We must steer future technolo- gies and urban development in a directed and coherent manner, con- sistent with the best science, social fairness, and economic efficiency. This book is a remarkable, cutting-edge, how-to manual at the start of a decades-long process. The authors don’t claim to have all of the answers. Indeed, they constantly emphasize the uncertainties around climate forecasts, technological options, and social best practices. Yet the tools described here are the best around for getting started. The volume is extraordinary on several counts. First, it is comprehen- sive, in that it considers every major dimension of adaptation and miti- gation that cities will confront. Second, it is remarkably broad ranging in its case studies of dozens of cities around the world. These cases are enormously interesting and enormously instructive. Third, it draws on the very best current knowledge by recognized leaders in their respec- tive fields. Fourth, and impressively, it is very clearly written. This is not a theoretical tome. This is a volume that can guide policymakers in cities and national governments around the world to launch their own climate assessments, and to begin developing meaningful climate solutions for their cities. By complementing the work of the already existing body of knowledge developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) provides a rigorous set of analytical tools for effective mitigation and adaptation decision-making, and in a sector-by- sector approach that is likely to be of practical benefit for city planners, managers, businesses, and non-governmental organizations. Over one hundred scholars around the world, representing a diverse group of developing and developed country cities, have collaborated on the ARC3. The work is a triumph, a must-read study for city plan- ners, mayors, and managers around the world. The lead editors, Cynthia Rosenzweig, William D. Solecki, Stephen A. Hammer, and
xi Foreword Shagun Mehrotra, merit our special thanks and admiration for taking on a challenge of such global significance, and for bringing the best of the world’s scientific knowledge together in such a useful and compre- hensive manner. Jeffrey D. Sachs Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University Special Advisor to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on the Millennium Development Goals
xiii Preface This volume is the Urban Climate Change Research Network’s First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3). It contains an Executive Summary and the four sections of the report. This report would not be possible without the tremendous support of the Cities Alliance, UN-HABITAT, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Bank. We especially thank Wil- liam Cobbett and his team at Cities Alliance, Jean Christophe, Ricardo Jimenez, Sid Henderson, Neelam Tutej, Kevin Milroy, Viorica Revutch, Phyllis Kibui, and Madhavan Balachandra. At UN-HABITAT, we are thankful to Anna Tibaijuka and Joan Clos, the outgoing and incoming Executive Directors, and their team led by Rafael Tuts with Robert Kehew and Bernhard Barth, as well as others who provided useful reviews of ARC3. At the World Bank, we thank Inger Andersen, Vice President, Sus- tainable Development Department, and her team at the Urban Anchor led by Abha Joshi Ghani; Dan Hoornweg and Anthony Bigio of the Urban Anchor have been unfailingly supportive. At UNEP we would like to thank Soraya Smaoun. We would also like to thank the Sector Managers and Directors at the World Bank and the leaders of the UNFCCC and the IPCC who have supported the need for ARC3. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the U.S. Geological Survey also provided much-appreciated support for the ARC3 initiating workshop, through the enthusiastic leadership of Saroj Jha and DeWayne Cecil, respectively. They are all exemplary international public servants com- mitted to the development of effective ways for cities to confront climate change challenges and to identify opportunities in resolving them. We appreciate the advice provided by the members of the UCCRN Steering Group – Albert Bressand, Richenda Connell, Peter Droege, Alice Grimm, Saleemul Huq, Eva Ligeti, Claudia Natenzon, Ademola Omojola, Roberto Sanchez, and Niels Schulz – whose wisdom has guided the establishment of the network and the development of the ARC3 process. We gratefully acknowledge the discussions and feedback during Â� sessions with Mayors, their advisors, leaders of major institutions, urban policymakers, and scholars. In particular, we thank everyone who participated in ARC3 consultations: scholars at NCCARF 2010 Climate Adaptation Futures Conference in Australia; Konrad Otto- Zimmermann, Monica Zimmermann, Yunus Arikan, and participants at ICLEI’s Resilient Cities Adaptation Summit in Bonn; scholars and practitioners at UGEC’s Global Summit in Phoenix, Arizona; Mayors and city leaders at the C40 Large City Climate Change Summits in New York, Seoul, and Hong Kong; and at the Mayors Summit held during the COP15 in Copenhagen and the World Council of Mayors Summit held in Mexico City before COP16 in Cancun. At the UN-HABITAT’s World Urban Forum in Rio de Janeiro we benefited from the interaction with a broad array of urban stakeholders who shared their thoughts on how to maximize the effectiveness of the ARC3 process. We extend special gratitude to the urban leaders who represent a diverse group of cities, who have commended UCCRN and ARC3. We also give a special thanks to the many students at Columbia University (New York), The Daly College (Indore), and Tec de Monterry (Mexico City) for their keen interest in the emerging field of urban climate change, which helped push the ideas for this volume forward. This report is the product of the work of the over 100 dedicated members of the UCCRN ARC3 writing team representing more than 50 cities in developing and developed countries. We express our sincere thanks to each of them for their sustained and sustaining contributions, and to their institutions for supporting their participation. We especially thank Shobhakar Dhakal (Tsukuba), Toshiaki Ichinose (Tokyo), Haluk Gerçek (Istanbul), Claudia Natenzon (Buenos Aires), Martha Barata (Rio de Janeiro), and Ademola Omojola (Lagos) for their efforts on behalf of the UCCRN in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa regions. We profoundly appreciate Joseph Gilbride and Somayya Ali for their tremendous work as the UCCRN ARC3 Project Managers, without whom the ARC3 could not have been completed in such a comprehen- sive and timely way. We also acknowledge the exceptional commitment of the ARC3 research assistants and interns, Jeanene Mitchell, Shailly Kedia, Young-Jin Kang, Masahiko Haraguchi, Steve Solecki, Casey Jung, Irune Echevarria, Lumari Pardo-Rodriguez and Kimberly Peng. At the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, we thank Daniel Bader, José Mendoza, Richard Goldberg and Adam Greeley for their technical expertise, and George Ropes, of www.climateyou.org, for his superb editing. We recognize with great esteem the expert reviewers of the ARC3 without whom the independent provision of sound science for climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities cannot proceed. It is a great honor that the ARC3 is being published by Cambridge University Press. We would especially like to thank Matt Lloyd, Editorial Director, Science, Technology and Medicine, Americas; Laura Clark, Assistant Editor; Abigail Jones, Production Editor; and their staff for their expert partnership in the publication of this volume. Finally, we are deeply grateful to the Columbia University Earth Institute and its Director Jeffrey Sachs for their support for the UCCRN ARC3 process from its inception. Cynthia Rosenzweig, William D. Solecki, Stephen A. Hammer, and Shagun Mehrotra, Editors First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities
Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network Executive Summary
xvi Executive Summary Cities1 are home to over half of the world’s people and are at the fore- front of the climate change issue. Climate change exerts added stress on urban areas through increased numbers of heat waves threatening the health of the elderly, the infirm, and the very young; more frequent and intense droughts and inland floods compromising water supplies; and for coastal cities, enhanced sea level rise and storm surges affecting inhabitants and essential infrastructure, property, and ecosystems. At the same time, cities are responsible for no less than 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and given current demographic trends, this level will likely only increase over time. These challenges highlight the need for cities to rethink how assets are deployed and people protected, how infrastructure investments are prioritized, and how climate will affect long-term growth and development plans. Work on the First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) was launched by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) in November 2008 at a major workshop in New York City with the goal of building the scientific basis for city action on climate change. Eventually more than 100 lead and contributing authors from over 50 cities around the world contributed to the report, including experts from cities in both the developing and developed world, repre- senting a wide range of disciplines. The book focuses on how to use cli- mate science and socio-economic research to map a city’s vulnerability to climate hazards, and how cities can enhance their adaptive and miti- gative capacity to deal with climate change over different timescales. Key findings Defining the risk framework A new vulnerability and risk management paradigm is emerging as a useful framework for city decision-makers to analyze how their city should seek to adapt to the anticipated impacts of climate change. The UCCRN climate change vulnerability and risk assessment framework (Figure 1) is composed of three sets of indicators: • Climate hazards facing the city, such as more frequent and longer duration heat waves, greater incidence of heavy downpours, and increased and expanded coastal or riverine flooding; • Vulnerabilities due to a city’s social, economic, or physical attributes such as its population size and density, topography, the percentage of its population in poverty, and the percentage of national GDP that it generates; • Adaptive capacity aspects, factors that relate to the ability of a city to act, such as availability of climate change information, resources to apply to mitigation and adaptation efforts, and the presence of effective institutions, governance, and change agents. In most cities, readily available data exist about climate hazards (trends and projections), population and geographic features, and insti- Executive Summary tutional capacity that can serve as a foundation for adaptation planning efforts. In other cities that are still in the early stages of efforts to assess local vulnerabilities and climate risks, work can nonetheless begin by using generalized climate risks and information from similar urban areas as a starting point for local climate planning efforts. For example, in Sorsogon City in the Philippines, the city govern- ment developed its local vulnerability assumptions using climate change projections and risk assessments from national government agencies and private research institutions. Urban climate: processes, trends, and projections Cities already face special climatic conditions that must be accounted for when preparing long-term climate change adaptation plans. These include: • Urban heat island. Cities already tend to be hotter than surrounding suburban and rural areas due to the absorption of heat by concrete and other building materials and the removal of vegetation and loss of permeable surfaces, both of which provide evaporative cooling. • Air pollution. The concentration of residential, commercial, industrial, electricity-generating, and transportation activities (including automobiles, railroads, etc.) contributes to air pollution, leading to acute and chronic health hazards for urban residents. • Climate extremes. Major variability systems such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and 1 Cities are defined here in the broad sense to be urban areas, including metropolitan and suburban regions. Hazards Trends and projections Heat waves Droughts and floods Sea level rise Preciptation Vulnerability City size and density Topography % of poor % of GDP Adaptive capacity Information and resources Institutions and governance Figure 1:╇ Urban climate change vulnerability and risk assessment framework. Source: Mehrotra et al. (2009).
xvii Executive Summary oceanic cyclonic storms (e.g., hurricanes and typhoons) affect climate extremes in cities. How these systems will interact with anthropogenic climate change is uncertain, but awareness of their effects can help urban areas to improve climate resilience. Existing city-specific climate data and downscaled projections from global climate models can provide the scientific foundation for planning efforts by city decision-makers and other stakeholder groups (Figure 2). In twelve cities analyzed in depth in this report (Athens, Dakar, Delhi, Harare, Kingston, London, Melbourne, New York, São Paulo, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Toronto), average temperatures are projected to increase by between 1â•›°C and 4â•›°C by the 2050s. Most cities can expect more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves than they have experienced in the past. Additionally, variations in precipitation are projected to cause more floods as the intensity of rainfall is expected to increase. In many cities, droughts are expected to become more frequent, more severe, and of longer duration. Coastal cities should expect to experience more frequent and more damaging flooding related to storm events in the future due to sea level rise. In Buenos Aires, for example, damage to real estate from flooding is projected to total US$80 million per year by 2030, and US$300 mil- lion per year by 2050. This figure does not account for lost productivity by those displaced or injured by the flooding, meaning total economic losses could be significantly higher. Sector-specific impacts, adaptation, and mitigation Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on four sec- tors in most cities – the local energy system; water supply, demand, and wastewater treatment; transportation; and public health. It is critical Figure 2:╇ Cities represented in ARC3 and 2050s temperature projections for the NCAR CCSM 3.0 GCM with greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1b. Source: NCAR CCSM 3.0 – Collins et al. (2006); Emissions Scenario A1b – Nakicenovic et al. (2000). that policymakers focus their attention on understanding the nature and scale of the impacts on each sector, developing adaptation and mitiga- tion strategies, and determining policy alternatives. Climate change and urban energy systems Cities around the world have prioritized efforts to reduce energy con- sumption and the associated carbon emissions. This has been done both for localized efficiency reasons – to reduce the effects of high energy costs on household budgets, for example – as well as to respond to con- cerns that activities in cities are responsible for a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emphasis is now being placed on urban energy system adaptation, as well, because climate change impacts such as the loss of key supply sources or transmission and distribution assets can jeopardize public health and the economic vitality of a city. For example, in New York City, power plants were historically sited on the waterfront to facilitate fuel supply delivery and to provide access to cooling waters. The majority of these facilities are at an elevation of less than 5m, making them susceptible to increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise (Figure 3). Increases in the incidence or duration of summertime heat waves may result in higher rates of power system breakdown or failure, par- ticularly if sustained high demand – driven by high rates of air con- ditioning use – stresses transmission and distribution assets beyond their rated design capacity. In Chinese cities, the number of households with air conditioners has increased dramatically in the past 15 years (Figure 4), although the extent to which usage is nearing a point where system vulnerabilities are heightened is still unclear. In cities heavily reliant on hydropower, changing precipitation patterns resulting from climate change may be problematic, if availability is reduced during summertime periods when demand is greatest.
xviii Figure 3:╇ Location and elevation of power plants along the East River in New York City. Source: Power plant data for 2000 from eGRID (US EPA, 2002) to reflect with recently retired plants deleted. New York City digital elevation model is from the USGS (1999), which has a vertical error of approximately +/-4 feet. 1991 250 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200 150 100 50 0 Figure 4:╇ Number of air conditioners per 100 households in selected Chinese cities. Source: CEIC (2010). For any given city, local analyses are necessary to determine the overall impact of climate change on energy demand, as it may increase or decrease depending on which of the seasonal effects of climate change (i.e., reduction in energy demand in cooler seasons and increased demand in warmer seasons) are most significant. Cities can take robust steps to reduce their energy demand and thus their carbon emissions, and it is increasingly clear that many of these steps also provide significant adaptation benefits. These steps include: • Develop demand management programs to cut peak load, reducing carbon emission levels and simultaneously lessening stress on the system during times of heightened vulnerability. • Capitalize on the natural replacement cycle to update power plants and energy networks to reduce their carbon intensity and simultaneously increase their resilience to flooding, storm, and temperature-related risks. Executive Summary
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went sluggishly, and both her passengers were sleepy. The only wakeful individual was the pig, who had ceased to yell, more from lack of breath than from any pleasant inclination, and was steadily employed in widening the hole cut for its head. A sharp puff of wind came off the land. Simultaneously, the pig freed himself from the sack, and started for home, oblivious of the fact that his hind legs were still tied together—a fact which checked its first leap, and sent it rolling, with an ear-splitting yell, against Nick's legs. That gentleman awoke with a start, and instinctively put the helm over, just at the wrong moment. The gust of wind struck them suddenly, and the boat heeled over, too far to right itself. The sail struck the water, and in an instant Nick, 'Possum and the pig were struggling together in the waves. The pig's troubles were quickly over. The rope round its hind legs, knotted by the capable Mr. Simpson, held firmly, and the water soon choked its cries as it sank for the last time. 'Possum and her father swam to the boat, which lay on its side, and clung to it, looking at each other. Well, of all the born fools! spluttered Mr. O'Connor, a vision of soaked wrath. I oughtn't to be let out. D'you know what happened? I don't—I was asleep, 'Possum admitted. First thing I knew, I was swimmin'. Well, you'd a right to go to sleep, but I hadn't, said Nick furiously. That darned pig got loose, an' barged into me just as the wind struck us. Now we're in a lovely fix, an' I've lost a jolly good pig, an' it hardly paid for an hour. And me hat. Well, I ought to be kicked for a careless fool!
Can't be helped, said 'Possum cheerfully. It was awful easy to go to sleep, sittin' still after havin' dinner in that hot kitchen. All very well for you to talk—you ain't got to pay for the pig! said her father morosely. I say, you climb up on the boat. 'Possum scrambled upon the boat, which lay on its side, held in position by the sail under the water. Then her father tried to follow her example; but the little craft ducked so ominously under his great weight that he slipped back into the lake. That'll never do—she won't hold both of us, he said. Then I'll get off, said 'Possum. I can easy hold on. You will not, said her father decidedly. Sit where you are, an' behave yourself. Tell you what—I'll work round an' stand on the mast: that'll be some support, an' it'll divide the weight better. He made his way round the bow until he could feel the mast with his feet, and gingerly stood on it. It creaked, and the boat swayed over; and for a moment Nick prepared to jump off again. Then, however, as the boat showed no further sign of sinking, he sighed with relief. You wouldn't call it exactly comf'table, but it's better than hangin' on in the water, he said. Can you see any sign of bein' picked up? 'Possum scanned the lake. Not any one in sight, she said. We're a bit off the usual track, aren't we? Do you reckon we'll drift into shore? It ain't far away. I don't, said Nick. We're out o' the way o' currents, as well as boats. Still, you never can tell where people'll cut across the lake; an' them hotel launches ought to be comin' home about this way. Well,
we just got to stick it out. I'd give a dollar if me matches an' baccy hadn't got wet! The slow hours of the afternoon crept on. No one came near the castaways. Once or twice their hopes rose high, as a fishing-boat or a launch crossed the lake; but they were not seen, and their shouts died unheeded on the water. It seemed extraordinary that they should not be perceived, for the shore was not a mile away, and houses looked peacefully down upon them; it was maddening to see the cheery smoke curling upward from the chimneys, and to realize how near lay deliverance. They changed places after a while. Nick's great height made his position on the mast unbearably cramped, and when he had slipped off twice, 'Possum became firm. It's silly, she said. I can stand on that stick quite easy; it's different for you, an' you six feet four. Why, it doubles you up something cruel. She descended into the water, and occupied the position on the mast before the cramped man could regain it. I b'lieve the boat'll hold you all right, if you get up gently, said she. Go on—you're about due for a rest. Nick scrambled to her former seat, the boat merely swaying beneath him. He looked at her gratefully. My word, it's good to sit down! he said. That place is a fair terror, 'Poss; I ain't goin' to let you stay there long. Hot above an' cold below, it is—your feet an' legs is near froze, an' on top you're gettin' sunstroke. You just tell me when you want a spell. Oh, I'll stick it all right, said 'Possum. I had a mighty long spell already. They relapsed into silence. There was nothing to talk about.
They shouted, from time to time, until they were hoarse and weary; but no one heard them, and at last they ceased. Nick was growing very weary. Once he slipped off, half asleep, and 'Possum had to swim after him and bring him back to the boat. He seemed half-dazed, and a sick fear came over her that the heat of the sun on his bare head had been too much for him. She splashed water over his face, and he became more alive. Thought I might swim ashore, he said thickly. But I s'pose I'd better get back. He climbed laboriously upon the boat once more, and 'Possum returned to her perch on the submerged mast. The sun went down slowly, a red ball of fire, into the lake. It was a relief to be without its fierce rays; but as the short Australian twilight deepened into dusk the wind blew coldly on their soaked garments, and they shivered. O'Connor opened his heavy eyes, and looked at his daughter. I dunno how you can keep on there, he said. I'm near done, an' I'm twice as comf't'ble up here. Well, if you come out of it an' I don't, 'Poss, there's a sort of a will in the drawer where I keep the strychnine for the foxes. It'll fix up all about the farm. I say, chuck it, Dad! 'Possum said unsteadily. You ain't goin' to give in. Not if I can help it, he said. But I'm not far off done. There came across the water the dull beat of a screw and a red light showed faintly through the dusk. It was the Bairnsdale boat hurrying down to her night's rest; and the sight galvanized the weary castaways into fresh efforts. But the steamer passed them half a mile away, deaf to their shouts. Her gleaming lights fell across them as in mockery before she throbbed away towards the Entrance.
Well, that does me, O'Connor said, after a long, silent pause. I'll drop off soon, 'Poss. Then you come an' perch up here. I won't, 'Possum said, with a sob. You ain't goin' to give in, Dad. Think of the kids—I can't manage them boys. I'm near done, 'Poss. No, you're not. The Sale boat'll be along in less than an hour now. She'll pick us up, I bet you. It'd be a miracle if she did, Nick said. What with the row of her engines, an' her passengers all talkin', how on earth's any one to hear us in the dark? It's no good, my girl. I'll drop off. If you do, I'll only come in after you, an' finish the way you do, said 'Possum between her teeth. It ain't like you, Dad, to be such a jolly old coward. You got to hang on, for the kids' sake. I'll try a bit longer, said her father meekly. But I'm dead beat, 'Poss. They fell silent again, save for the water lapping gently against their poor place of refuge. Unbearable pains were beginning to torment 'Possum; her feet, from standing on the narrow mast, were swollen and agonizingly painful, and pains like red-hot wires shot up her legs. Sometimes she let herself go into the water altogether, holding to the boat; but she was too weak to cling for long, and soon she was forced to climb back to her place of torture. Her father no longer spoke. She could see him dimly, leaning forward astride of the boat, and breathing heavily. Somehow the hour dragged by, and again the low throb came across the lake. 'Possum strained her eyes. At first the gloom was too thick to pierce, but presently she made out a dull glow from the
steamer's lights, and could see the red gleam of the lantern at her mast. 'Possum cried to her father. Dad! It's the Sale boat. Yell!
'Dad! It's the Sale Boat. Yell!'
O'Connor grunted heavily, half asleep, and utterly exhausted. She could get nothing more from him; and as the steamer drew nearer, she left the half-conscious man alone and uttered cry upon cry for help. Nearer and nearer yet the gleaming lights rushed upon her. She spent all her strength in a last cry, which ended in a sob as the steamer passed on. They've gone! she gasped. Well, we're done, anyhow! A bell clanged sharply, and with it a shout. Coo-ee! Who's there? She screamed in answer. The steamer was slackening speed, coming round in a half-circle; she could hear each clang of her telegraph. Voices came loudly. Who's there? Any one in trouble? Want help? But 'Possum had no words. She could only utter broken cries, that grew fainter and fainter. Her feet were slipping from the mast: she clung to the side of the boat with nerveless fingers that slipped and clawed for a fresh hold, and slipped again. Then, very dimly, it seemed, she heard the clash of oars in rowlocks, and a deep voice close to her. And then—nothing more. She woke in a little cabin. There was a faint light. Her feet and legs were full of pain, but she was wrapped in blankets, and even the pain could not keep her from feeling gloriously warm and comfortable. A kind-faced woman came forward. Where's 'Dad? 'Possum asked feebly. He's all right—asleep in a cabin. Where am I?
You're in the ladies' cabin on the Omeo, said the woman. And I'm the stewardess, and we're tied up at Cuninghame, and you're not to worry about anything, you poor child. Drink this. 'Possum did not know what it was: but it was hot and pleasant and soothing, and the woman's kind voice was like music. There did not seem anything to worry about; she might as well go to sleep— and did so.
CHAPTER XIII AMATEUR SURGERY Aileen! Aileen! Are you there? It was very early on a hot December morning. Tom Macleod came up the yard hurriedly. His wife appeared at the back door, broom in hand. What is it, Tom? It's a poor beggar of a scrub-cutter, Tom said hurriedly. You know there are two men working up the Lake? Well, one has just been down to borrow a pony. He says his mate has broken his leg— the limb of a tree fell on him: and he's gone to bring him in here: we're the nearest people. I say, you studied first aid, didn't you? Aileen's heart turned to water. I did—but it's ages ago, she said. And I have never had any practical experience. I would be afraid to touch him. Well, something ought to be done, Tom said, obviously disappointed. Don't you remember anything about it? Aileen racked her memory. I could try, of course, she said slowly. But I should be terrified of making it worse. I think any sort of bandaging is better than leaving it altogether, said Tom. Let's try, at all events. It's the lower part of the leg that's broken.
That's easier than the thigh, at all events. Come on. I'll leave you to chop out splints while I run for an old sheet for bandages. She ran towards the wood-heap, but paused on the way to pick up an old paling. That will do, I think, she said, and knitted her brows, striving to think of long-forgotten instructions. I can't be perfectly certain of the lengths, but if you will cut it here—and here—it should be about right. She came back in a few moments, and together they tore and rolled bandages swiftly. It's the worst of luck that the motor has gone wrong, and I can't take the poor chap down in the launch, Tom said. It would have been such easy travelling. Now we'll have to lay him flat in the buggy, and you know what the jolting of that road is. Aileen thought a moment. There's a better way than letting him lie down, she said. I read of it the other day. You lash a padded board, stretching across from the seat to the splashboard, and let the patient sit up in the ordinary way—the good leg hanging down, and the broken one strapped to the board. The paper said the patient would hardly feel a jolt. Well, I know the lying-down position is simply torture, so we'll try your way, Tom said. With luck, we may catch the Bairnsdale boat with him—it doesn't go until nine, and it's only seven o'clock now. I hope they won't be long. The fellow who came in said he could manage to get him here on the pony, so I thought it was better for me to wait and get things ready here. I'll fix that board, if you will find something to pad it. Is Garth up? He's in his bath, I think.
You might tell him to hurry and run the horses up as soon as he's dressed. I'll get the buggy out. I expect the poor beggar will want some nourishment—and a drink. We'll give him brandy before I touch the leg; and I have some strong soup I can 'hot up' for him to take afterwards. That's good, Tom said approvingly. If time is short, you could drive him in, couldn't you? and I'd ride ahead and try to hold the steamer back. I'm sure the captain would wait, under the circumstances. Splendid idea! I'm certain he would wait. But perhaps we won't need to, Aileen said. I'll go and get everything ready, and fix up some breakfast for Garth. Get something to eat yourself, Tom called after her. She shook her head, smiling, as she hurried in: breakfast for herself was the last thing to be thought of. But Tom came after her with long strides. Be sensible, dear, he said. It may be an ugly job; and you don't want to turn faint or have unsteady hands, for the poor chap's sake. That's true, Aileen admitted. Aren't you sensible! Well, I will eat something. She smiled into his eyes, and was gone. Garth, half-dressed, went flying down the paddock, and was soon urging the horses up the hill, with shrill shouts, to the stockyard. In a few minutes the buggy was ready, with the padded board in position. Just as Tom tied up the horses Roany whinneyed; and turning, he saw Jane, led by the scrub-cutter, coming up the hill, the injured man riding. A Coo-ee! brought Aileen hurrying out. She ran to the gate.
The patient was little more than a boy. He was crouched on the pony, leaning forward: one hand steadying himself on Jane's withers, the other under his knee, supporting the broken leg. As he saw Aileen his white face twisted into a smile, and he freed the hand under his knee that he might lift his hat. The leg sagged downwards. A cry broke from her. Oh, please, don't! Take care of your leg! The effort was almost the finishing touch to the long agony of the ride. The boy went forward helplessly, and, abandoning Jane, Tom and his mate lifted him off and laid him on the grass under the quince-tree. A little colour came back to his lips, and he gasped, Sorry! Tom slipped a hand under his head, holding brandy to his lips. Cow of a trip! said the other scrub-cutter. Had to carry him downhill and across the creek on me back, an' you know what the scrub is there! I fell twice with him. Mighty good luck the bone ain't through the skin, but it ain't. It's broke in two places, though. Aileen was on her knees on the grass, feeling the leg gently. Before, she had been sick with nervousness; but in the presence of the boy's agony, every thought but one fled from her—to help him. She was perfectly cool. I'm afraid I've got to hurt you, she said. I'll be as quick as I can. She ran her hands up and down the leg, feeling, with an involuntary shudder, the bones grate under the skin, She must get it straight, she knew. Gently, but firmly, she pulled it into position. Once she heard him gasp, but her hands did not falter. It was straight at last, and she signed to Tom. Hold it—just like that.
She laid the splints in position, and bandaged them tightly, forgotten deftness coming back to her. Round and round the firm hands went steadily, until the leg, swathed like a mummy, stuck out stiffly before her. Then she sat back on her heels. That's all I can do, she said, finding her lips stiff and dry. The voice was not like her own. Look carefully, Tom, and tell me if you think it is straight. As far as I can see—perfectly, Tom said, peering at the leg. I guess it's straight, said the patient cheerfully, 'cause it don't hurt now, hardly a bit. An' it was a fair caution before you touched it. Where'd you learn how, mum? But Aileen had no power to answer. She found herself suddenly shuddering, and drenched in perspiration. Tom put his hand on her shoulders, and made her drink a little brandy. Oh, I was so afraid! she whispered, so dreadfully afraid! Are you sure it's straight? It must be, he said gently, or he wouldn't be out of pain. Pull yourself together, dear—remember we haven't much time. And he must have the soup. Oh, I'm sorry, she said. I'm all right, Tom; don't worry. Will you two get him into the buggy while I bring the soup? She hurried away. When she came back, with the steaming cup in her hand, the patient was sitting up in the buggy, wearing a wide smile, while Tom strapped the leg to the board above the knee and at the foot. Garth stood sentry-fashion at the horse's head, his eyes shining with excitement.
By Jove, that's good! said the broken-legged one, tasting the soup. And I'd hardly know me ol' laig was broke, I'm that comfortable. You're a great doctor, ain't you now, Mrs. Macleod? I hope I didn't hurt you much, she said, smiling at him faintly. She was still trembling. Not you. That ol' pony hurt like fury, an' it was a fair caution when Bill fell down with me. Twice, he did; Bill's a great hand at fallin'. He grinned at Bill. Thank y'r lucky stars I was big enough to carry y'r great carcase, said that worthy, not at all abashed. Might as well be decently grateful: I can tell you, you ain't no luxury to carry! Finished? Tom asked, handing the empty cup to Garth. Get the place tidy, son; mother's going to drive in. We'll be back soon. He helped Aileen to the driver's seat, handing her the reins. You haven't too much time. I'll go ahead and try to hold the boat. Jump up behind—to the mate. I'll leave the gates open as I go, and you can shut them. He swung himself upon the pony, and trotted down the hill. It was with a shiver of dread that Aileen felt the first severe jolt as they jogged over the rough paddock track. She glanced anxiously at her patient. Did that hurt you much? 'Ardly felt it, said he. This dodge of yours is the best ever I see. Every one else puts a man full length on a mattress, an' crikey! don't it hurt! Every little jolt'll make a man howl. But this is like bein' in an armchair, and the jolts don't seem to worry you at all. They bumped heavily over a tussock, and his calmness bore out the truth of his words.
She was thankful for it, for there was no time to waste. Her patient, smoking and chattering, was apparently indifferent as to whether he caught the steamer. I don't reckon any ol' doctor is goin' to make a better job of this laig than you done, he said, carelessly. But to Aileen it was unthinkable that they should not catch it. She had no belief in her own ability to set a broken leg properly. That the boy should be cheerful, and almost out of pain, was a kind of pleasant miracle, but she could not realize that her unskilled hands could possibly have caused it. She would not have been surprised if, at any moment, he had broken down again in shivering agony. The dread lest she should have made some mistake almost choked her—how could she ever face him in the future if the leg she had doctored were crooked, or shorter than the other? He was such a boy! She could not bear to think that he might be crippled, and because of her. I say! said the patient, suddenly alert. There's a snake! Do stop, Mrs. Macleod, and let Bill kill the brute. Not for fifty snakes! said Aileen firmly. She brought down the whip with emphasis on Roany's back. The snake, a big brown one, slid away into a patch of bracken. I don't believe in letting snakes go, said the patient severely. You never can tell where it's going to turn up again. It's like leavin' poison lyin' about loose where there's kids. You wouldn't like your own kid to meet that chap if he was runnin' about in the scrub, not thinkin'. Aileen had a feeling of having been put in the corner by a small boy.
I know, she said meekly. And I truly would not leave it, if we had time. But this is a lonely part, and there are no children—and it is very important to get you to a doctor quickly. If we miss the boat, you know, it means waiting a whole day. Ah, doctors! said the boy scornfully. I knew one once in South Gippsland where a chap broke his laig, same as me, and some one set it, and got him pretty right for the time bein'. They took him home an' wired for a doctor to a place ten mile away, tellin' him what was the matter, so's he'd bring the proper fixin's. He come along after a bit, took off the setting an' looked at the laig, an' said it was set all right, an' he'd left the splints an' things at the hotel, an' he must go an' get them. So he left that laig with nothin' on it but a blanket, an' went off; an' he didn't come back for seven hours! But why? Why? 'Cause he was playin' billiards an' havin' a good time. That's why. They sent ever so many messages to him, an' the poor chap lay there, with his laig swellin' something cruel. Then the doctor come back at last, an' if you'll believe me he'd never brought a thing with him! He took them old bandages an' rough bits of wood they'd used for splints—the things he'd taken off an' chucked aside in the morning—an' put 'em on the laig again: all dirty, they was, from bein' against his ol' workin' pants. But why did he not bring the proper things? Nobody never knew. He didn't, anyhow. When that laig was set first, by the chap as did it in the Bush, it was as straight and comft'ble as anything could be. But when that beautiful doctor done it, it wasn't straight. He put on the things quite loose and careless. The man's mate was there, an' said so, an' the doctor flared up like
packet of crackers. 'Do you think I don't know me business?' says he. 'I'm blooming well sure you don't,' says the mate. What did he say to that? Aileen asked. Not a thing. You couldn't insult him—he hadn't no decent pride. He just finished tyin' up the poor bloke's laig, an' went off, sayin' he'd come back in three days an' look at him. But the chap suffered very bitter in his heel all night, an' next morning his foot was stickin' out turned half-ways round. They sent five mile into the Bush for the man that had set it first, to come an' straighten it an' set it again. Did he? No, he had sense. He said he couldn't take the responsibility of touching it. So they packed the poor chap an' his laig up on a stretcher, with the laig just as the doctor had left it, an' sent him up to the Melbourne Hospital. They said it was the laughin'-stock of the whole place—they asked was it a doctor as had done it, or a goanna? I never heard of such a thing! Aileen breathed. Did he—was he lame afterwards? Well, he wasn't, but it was luck. And it was ages before he was better, an' him out of work all the time. So that's why I ain't in any hurry to get to any ol' doctors. Me laig's comft'ble now, an' I'd like it to stay so. But all doctors aren't like that, thank goodness, Aileen said. I know one who saved my boy's life. And when he comes into a house where there is sickness, you feel as if he had suddenly shouldered all your troubles. Oh, I suppose there's good and bad in all trades! her patient admitted handsomely. Only that fool Englishman in South Gippsland
was the only one I ever met very intimate, so to speak. But I've heard they're good in Bairnsdale. I know they are, Aileen assured him. And there's a big, comfortable hospital where you'll be splendidly looked after. You see, it's all very well now, when you haven't had time to get tired; but you will be glad enough to be in bed after a while. I s'pose I will; but I never was in bed a day in me life, he said ruefully. Oh, well, if I'm fool enough to let a limb hit me, I got to pay for it. They were approaching the outskirts of the township. Scattered houses came in view, and the roar of the surf grew plainer as they drew near to the narrow lagoon that lies between Cuninghame and the sand hummocks of the Ninety Mile Beach. Above it came three long discordant hoots. My word, that's the steamer! said the man at the back. Can you get a bit more out of that ol' pony, mum? Aileen was already plying the whip, much to Roany's disgust. He shook his head angrily from side to side, and finally broke into a lurching canter. Tom came in view, riding to meet them. Hurry all you can! he said briefly. The captain has kept the steamer almost as long as he dares; you see, he carries the mail from some places. I'll tell him you're coming. They turned into the esplanade, and rocked down past the houses and the stores. Near the wharf a knot of people waited, gazing curiously at them. The paddle-steamer was at the wharf, smoke pouring from her funnel. Aileen could see the tall figure of the captain leaning over the railing. He shouted something she could not hear. She pulled up near the wharf, with a sigh of relief.
There were plenty of willing hands to help to carry the patient to the steamer. The captain had offered his cabin, but the boy begged to be left on deck. I'll be inside four walls long enough, I expect, he said. Let's stop out here. So they propped him up where he could look across the lake, with his bandaged leg sticking stiffly out in front of him. He looked at it with a wry smile. A nice object, you are! he said. He held out his hand to Aileen. Thanks, Mrs. Macleod. If I've ever the luck to be able to do a good turn for you, I'll do it. But you would do that if you'd never hurt your leg, she said, laughing. I think all Gippslanders are ready to do good turns! Take care of yourself, and good luck! She turned to his mate. You'll let us know how he gets on? My word, yes, said Bill. He also shook hands vigorously. Great bit of luck we struck you, mum, anyhow! The steamer gave an agonized hoot, and Tom and Aileen sought the wharf hurriedly. They stood, watching, while the big, top-heavy- looking, boat moved slowly out from the wharf, with great churnings of her paddles, and set off down the lagoon towards the lake opening out ahead. Aileen suddenly realized that she was very tired. And the washing-up not done! she said. It's very bad management to begin the day with such dissipation! Come home, Tom. Right-oh! Tom answered. I'll lead Jane, and come with you in the buggy. He helped her in, and they jogged back along the esplanade. Are you very done up, my girl?
Oh, a little bit tired, she said. I think it's more from fear than anything else. Well, you had no reason to be afraid, he said. Your job was all right. I was proud of you! But it wasn't an easy thing to tackle. However, none of us need worry now when we break an odd limb or two: all we have to do is to get as comfortable as possible, light a pipe, and wait for you! If you dare——! said his wife, laughing. Why not? But apart from joking, Aileen, our 'Possum has been having adventures. They told me about it when I was waiting for you at the wharf. He told her the story of the wrecked boat. And where is she now? Aileen asked anxiously. Is she ill? Her feet and legs are pretty painful, they said. But she wouldn't see a doctor, or stay in Cuninghame; and her father was better, so he took her home yesterday. I must go over and see if I can do anything, Aileen said decidedly. Well, I thought you'd like to. But are you fit for it, dear? I shall be quite all right, especially when I have some tea! she said. Tea is the one thing my soul craves for. I'll brew the largest teapot in the house directly we get home, Tom said. And you will just keep quiet and take things easy. You won't need to do any cooking, will you? I should like to take a basket of things over to the O'Connors, she said. But I won't do much, really, Tom. I'll starve my poor family on 'Possum's account! If I believed that you would, I'd be contented, he said. But I know you better. When shall we go over?
Oh, after dinner. We'll take Garth—the poor man has had a horrid morning. Garth did not consider that he had had a horrid morning at all. It was not every day that the thrilling excitement of a broken leg came his way; and later, he had found enormous satisfaction in dusting and tidying the house, and in spurring Horrors to amazing efforts in the kitchen. The housework was done by the time the buggy drew up at the back gate—if the corners were not above reproach, Aileen knew better than to look at them. She looked instead at her little son's glowing face, and kissed him, with moist eyes; and Tom's deep Well done, old man! sent Garth into the seventh heaven. There was a big basket stowed in the back of the buggy when they set off early in the afternoon: such things as might relieve the anxieties of a crippled housekeeper and of a cook of twelve. A big piece of cooked mutton; a crisp, brown loaf of soda bread, and a bundle of scones tied up in a fresh, white cloth; a big cake of the kind that invites hungry people to cut and come again, and, in a special corner, a glass of jelly and a sponge cake, warm yet, and light and puffy: things to tempt an invalid. Won't it be 'strordinary to see 'Possum in bed? Garth chattered. Do you think she has dungaree nighties, mother? O'Connor's farm lay two miles away, in a dark valley between hills covered with gum trees. There was no gate leading into it: only heavy slip-rails, fitting into rusty horse shoes nailed to posts on either side. Like their own farm, it had scarcely any homestead track: they bumped over tussocks and rough ground, and wriggled a tortuous way round logs and clumps of scrub. 'Possum and her
father nearly always rode; and the children walked two miles across the paddocks to the little Bush school. There were few wheel-marks on O'Connor's land. Little Joe was playing on the wood-heap near the door as the Macleods drove up. He greeted Garth with a grin of joy, and Garth's father and mother with shy pleasure. How is 'Possum, Joe? asked Aileen, descending. Is she asleep? 'Poss? Asleep? Gwacious, no! said 'Possum's brother, in amazement. She's feeding the calf. Come on down to the shed. He led the way across the untidy yard. The shed was a half- open place, tenanted by a dray, two ploughs, a harrow, sundry old iron, and a calf. The calf was tied to the wheel of the dray, and at the moment was strenuously objecting to take nourishment, which 'Possum, seated on a wheelbarrow, was endeavouring to administer by means of a baby's bottle. The efforts of the calf to withdraw were frustrated by the combined muscles of Bertha, young Bill and little Polly, who held it firmly in position and talked to it in good plain terms. The calf, however, was obdurate, and at last 'Possum gave up the attempt. Oh, let him go! she said, without noticing the new-comers. I wouldn't mind if it was on'y his feed, but it's his med'cine as well. We'll hot it up after a bit, Bill, an' try him again. Might as well try 'n' pour milk into a gate-post! said young Bill, disgustedly, prodding, with a bare toe, the calf, which had lain down thankfully on its straw. Brute! I dunno how Daisy come to have such a mis'rable little runt of a thing!
Jolly careless of her, said 'Possum. Now you just turn me round, an' wheel me up easy, Bert. Don't go an' pitch me out, like you near did comin' down! Let me help, said Tom, stepping forward. Every one jumped, and 'Possum turned a lively pink. Sorry, she said gruffly, looking at her bandaged feet, which were thrust over the edge of the wheelbarrow, I'm lame, like the silly ass I am, so the kids have to wheel me round—that fool of a calf won't drink for Bill, but he gen'lly-as-a-rule will for me. Don't you bother, Mr. Macleod; Bert can get me up all right. I don't believe Bertha's half as good in the shafts of a barrow as I am! Tom retorted. I've been broken in ever so much longer than she has; I wouldn't trust her not to kick! Which pleasantry reduced Bertha to suppressed giggles, until she grew alarmingly red in the face. Tom wheeled the barrow up the steep yard, and paused at the kitchen door. It was a dark, low room, lit only by one small window; but it was spotlessly neat and clean. A rough home-made sofa, from which a coarse rug had been flung back, stood under the window. Is that your camp? Tom asked, indicating the sofa. 'Possum nodded, looking more wretchedly uncomfortable than before. If—if you'n' missus 'ud go into the front room, I can get to it, she muttered, crimsoning. You can't walk, 'Possum? Aileen put a hand on her shoulder. No, but I can manage. She dropped her voice to a whisper. Please do take the boss away! I say! said Tom unhappily. It isn't fair to shunt me like that, 'Possum. He turned to the silent children. How did she get to the
barrow, Bill? Crawled 'n' rolled, said young Bill briefly. An' it hurt her like fury. Well, you aren't going to crawl and roll this time, said Tom, with decision. And you can't sit in that barrow all day. Now you just behave yourself, 'Possum; I'm going to make believe you're Garth. You've no idea how handy I got as a nurse when he was ill. Without giving her time to make any further protest he lifted her gently and carried her across to the sofa, putting her down as easily as though she had been a featherweight, and arranging the rug across her knees. He talked fluently all the time, without looking at her. This is a sort of hospital day for us, he said. You've been trying to drown yourself and fill the lake with cold pork, and the Missus has been setting broken legs until her brain reeled. And Garth has been cook and bottle-washer, and what the family would have done without him I tremble to think. He even made Horrors hurry, and I guess you know what sort of a job that would be, 'Possum! Horrors showed signs of swooning from overwork and brain-fag by the time Garth had finished with him. The missus will tell you all about it. Now I'm off to talk to that calf, with Bill. Come along, Bill. I don't think the calf likes a crowd any more than I do when I've medicine to take. He took the calf's rejected bottle, to which 'Possum had clung instinctively, and went out, Bill at his heels. Jus' fancy him carryin' me like that! 'Possum uttered, her eyes shining. Ain't he the limit! Oh, you were good to come, Missus! Of course we had to come, Aileen said, shaking up a cushion, and putting her back upon it gently. Wasn't our station-manager ill!
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Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig

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    Climate Change andCities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network 1st Edition Cynthia Rosenzweig Digital Instant Download Author(s): Cynthia Rosenzweig, WilliamD. Solecki, Stephen A. Hammer, Shagun Mehrotra ISBN(s): 9781107004207, 1107004209 Edition: 1 File Details: PDF, 13.39 MB Year: 2011 Language: english
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    Climate Change andCities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network Urban areas are home to over half of the world’s people and are at the forefront of the climate change issue. Climate change exerts added stress on urban areas through increased numbers of heat waves threatening the health of the elderly, the infirm, and the very young; more frequent and intense droughts and inland floods compromising water supplies; and for coastal cities, enhanced sea level rise and storm surges affecting essential infrastructure, property, ecosystems, and inhabitants. At the same time, cities are responsible for no less than 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and given current demographic trends, this level will likely only increase over time. These challenges highlight the need for cities to rethink how assets and people are deployed and protected, how infrastructure investments are prioritized, and how climate will affect long-term growth and development plans. Work on the First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) was launched by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) in November 2008 with the goal of building the scientific basis for city action on climate change. The authors include experts from cities in both the developing and developed world, representing a wide range of disciplines. The book focuses on how to use climate science and socio-economic research to map a city’s vulnerability to climate hazards, and how cities can enhance their adaptive and mitigative capacity to deal with climate change over different timescales. The volume is structured to communicate to a range of groups important for urban decision-making: • The Executive Summary is invaluable for mayors, city officials, and policymakers; • The Urban Climate, Land Use, and Governance chapters are of great interest to urban sustainability officers and urban planners; • The Sector chapters are important for mid-level urban stakeholders in agencies charged with developing climate change mitigation and adaptation programs; • The entire volume, including the framing Urban Climate Change in Context and the Cities, Disasters, and Climate Risk chapters, provides a broad spectrum of climate change knowledge to researchers, professors, and advanced students. Cynthia Rosenzweig is a Senior Research Scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies where she heads the Climate Impacts Group. She recently co-chaired the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a body of experts convened by the Mayor to advise the city on adaptation for its critical infrastructure. She co-led the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, sponsored by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. She was a Coordinating Lead Author of the IPCC Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report, and served on the IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impact and Climate Analysis. A recipient of a Guggenheim Fellowship, she joins impact models with climate models to project future outcomes of both land-based and urban systems under altered climate conditions. She is a Professor at Barnard College and a Senior Research Scientist at the Earth Institute at Columbia University. William D. Solecki is a Professor in the Department of Geography, Hunter College, City University of New York. He has led or co-led numerous projects on the process of urban environmental change and transformation. As Director of the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, he has worked extensively on connecting cutting-edge urban environmental science to everyday practice and action in cities. He most recently served as Co-Chair of the New York City Panel on Climate Change, as Co-Principal Investigator of the Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in New York State (ClimAID), and as Co-Leader of the Metropolitan East Coast Assessment of the US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. He is a Lead Author of the IPCC Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report. He is also a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Urban and Global Environmental Change core project of the International Human Dimensions Programme. Stephen A. Hammer is the President of Mesacosa LLC, a consultancy that conducts research on urban energy and climate issues in cities around the globe. He was formerly Executive Director of the Energy Smart Cities Initiative, a project of the Joint U.S.-China Collaboration on Clean Energy (JUCCCE), running energy and climate policy training and technical assistance programs for local governments in China. He is also the past director of the Urban Energy Program at Columbia University’s Center for Energy, Marine Transportation and Public Policy. He has authored or co-authored dozens of policy studies and journal articles on urban sustainability planning, urban energy systems, distributed generation technology and the impacts of climate change on local and regional energy networks. He is an Adjunct Professor at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs, a member of New York City Mayor Bloomberg’s Energy Policy Task Force, and a consultant to the OECD and the World Bank. Shagun Mehrotra is Managing Director of Climate and Cities, an international policy advisory facility at Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research. As a Columbia University Faculty Fellow, he provides research and policy advice focusing on infrastructure economics and finance, development economics and poverty reduction in slums. He has developed a comprehensive framework for city climate risk assessment that combines hazards, vulnerabilities and agency. Previously, he was on the staff of the World Bank, leading infrastructure reform of state-owned utilities in Africa. Over the last decade, his advice has been sought by national and local governments in East Africa, South-East Asia, China and India, as well as the United Nations Human Development Report, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Columbia Earth Institute. His co-authored book, Bankruptcy to Billions: How the Indian Railways Transformed, was recently launched by the President of India.
  • 9.
    From the Forewordsto this book: “ … innovative and important. … I am convinced that this body of knowledge will be of direct benefit and inspiration to the cities which we are supporting to develop climate action plans.” Anna Tibaijuka, Former Under-Secretary General of the United Nations and Former Executive Director, UN-HABITAT “I am highly appreciative of the work of the members of the UCCRN from developing and developed cities who are participating in the ARC3 activity. Policymakers, administrators, and researchers from cities around the world will benefit from the information provided in ARC3, helping them make more informed decisions about how climate change will affect public health, local infrastructure, and in turn, our economic vitality in the coming decades.” Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India “The strategies explored in this text will not only help to guide individual local government efforts, but also help to tell the story of the critical importance of local action. The best scientific data tell us that it is long past time to address that challenge. And the best demographic data tells us that cities must lead the way. … The ARC3 project will help ensure that we not only create a greener, greater New York for future generations, but that we continue to learn from the lessons of our counterparts across the world, and that we share our progress and our story with our partners throughout government, academia, and the private sector.” Michael R. Bloomberg, Mayor, New York City “[This] new volume … is a lifeline to sustainability. … The authors of this remarkable report … are at the cutting edge of global science and policy. … The work is a triumph, a must-read study for city planners, mayors, and managers around the world. The lead editors … merit our special thanks and admiration for taking on a challenge of such global significance, and for bringing the best of the world’s scientific knowledge together in such a useful and comprehensive manner.” Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and Special Advisor to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on the Millennium Development Goals Other praise for this book: “As the pioneer of a global movement of local climate actions since early 1990s, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability welcomes ARC3. It provides key information that local governments need to develop effective plans and programs addressing climate change. UCCRN researchers synthesize knowledge and best practices for both mitigation and adaptation for crucial urban sectors and systems including water, energy, transportation, and public health. This valuable scientific compilation helps local decision makers and municipal officials play a vital leadership role in climate change action in their cities, regions, countries and beyond.” Konrad Otto-Zimmermann, ICLEI (Local Governments for Sustainability) Secretary General “For the challenges that a city such as Mexico City must face, efforts like ARC3 are crucial to provide the much-needed scientific assessment to effectively address climate change.” Mayor Marcelo Ebrard of Mexico City “Cities need increasingly sound scientific knowledge to take decisions related to combating climate change. We therefore welcome initiatives like the ARC3 and hope that cities all over the world can benefit from its findings.” Mayor Gilberto Kassab of São Paulo “The First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities is a critical piece in helping cities to develop sound, science-based policies to address the climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges they face.” Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola of Lagos State “Cities are leaders in taking action to fight climate change. ARC3 is a must read for city leaders who want to incorporate the most current understanding of climate change science in cities into their decision-making.” David Miller, former Mayor of Toronto and former Chair of the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group “ARC3 fills a critical gap in addressing climate change issues in Indonesia’s vulnerable and diverse urban areas such as Jakarta, Palangkaraya, and Samarinda city.” Senator Hambdani and Senator Bambang Susilo, Indonesia
  • 10.
    Climate Change andCities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network Edited by Cynthia Rosenzweig NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, New York William D. Solecki Hunter College, City University of New York Stephen A. Hammer Mesacosa, LLC and Columbia University, New York Shagun Mehrotra Columbia University, New York Urban Climate Change Research Network Center for Climate Systems Research Earth Institute, Columbia University
  • 11.
    C A MB R I D G E U N I V E R S I T Y P R E S S Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107004207 © Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute, Columbia University 2011 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2011 Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-107-00420-7 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
  • 12.
    v Contents Foreword - AnnaTibaijuka Foreword - Rajendra Kumar Pachauri Foreword - Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg Foreword - Jeffrey D. Sachs Preface xiii Executive Summary xv Part I:╇ Introduction 1 1 Urban climate change in context 3 Part II:╇ Defining the risk framework 13 2 Cities, disasters, and climate risk 15 3 Urban climate: processes, trends, and projections 43 Part III:╇ Urban sectors 83 4 Climate change and urban energy systems 85 5 Climate change, water, and wastewater in cities 113 6 Climate change and urban transportation systems 145 7 Climate change and human health in cities 179 Part IV:╇ Cross-cutting issues 215 8 The role of urban land in climate change 217 9 Cities and climate change: the challenges for governance 249 Conclusion:╇ Moving forward 271 Appendix A:╇ City case studies and topics in vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation 273 Appendix B:╇ Acronyms and abbreviations 275 Appendix C:╇ Steering Group, ARC3 authors, and reviewers 277 Index╇ 281
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    vii Foreword - AnnaTibaijuka The world rapidly urbanizing, and a majority of the global population will experience climate change in cities. Climate change will exacerbate the existing urban environmental management challenges in cities – in most cases making existing problems much worse. Additionally, it is the urban poor, who often are forced to live in flood- and landslide-prone areas and who face other vulnerabilities, who will bear a dispropor- tionate share of the effects of climate change. Though cities are vulner- able to the effects of climate change, they are also uniquely positioned to take a global leadership role in both mitigating and adapting to it. As cities begin to develop climate change action plans there is great need for a mechanism by which research and expert knowledge may contribute to the development and implementation of effective urban climate change policies and programs. Since responding to the com- plex challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation requires a knowledge-based approach, the First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) provides a tool for policymakers as they “mainstream” responses to climate change in urban areas. The ARC3, a project of the Urban Climate Change Research Net- work (UCCRN), is innovative and important. It supports the work of local government officials and local researchers and complements the work of the already-existing body of knowledge developed by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by addressing the needs of cities. ARC3 provides the scientific base needed for sound mitigation and adaptation decision-making on a sector-by-sector basis, mirroring the administrative structure of a city. The UCCRN’s goal of turning the ARC3 process into an on-going initiative is also critical. Climate science is ever-evolving and cities are constantly reacting to and proactively addressing their unique climate change challenges. With the support of the research community, cities around the world will now have access to the latest information and the most robust understanding of climate change available. I therefore applaud the work of groups such as UCCRN and the many researchers from both developing and developed cities contrib- uting to this important research initiative and creating a mechanism to help cities further empower themselves. We will promote the use of the information compiled in ARC3 through our Cities and Climate Change Initiative and through our collaboration frameworks with other organi- zations, including the Joint Work Programme between the World Bank, UN-HABITAT and UNEP, supported by the Cities Alliance. I am convinced that this body of knowledge will be of direct benefit and inspiration to the cities which we are supporting to develop climate action plans. It will help cities make more informed decisions about how climate change will affect public health, local infrastructure, and in turn, their own economic vitality in the coming decades. Anna Tibaijuka Former Under-Secretary General of the United Nations Former Executive Director, UN-HABITAT
  • 15.
    viii Foreword - RajendraKumar Pachauri Clearly, cities are playing an increasing role in responding to climate challenges and are therefore in need of knowledge to aid in their policy development. The First Assessment Report on Climate Change in Cities (ARC3), a project of the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), is particularly useful in this regard. The ARC3 provides a scientific assessment of climate change in cities, presenting the informa- tion necessary for sound mitigation and adaptation decision-making on a sector-by-sector basis. By specifically addressing climate change in cities, the ARC3 supports the work of local governments, officials and researchers, and complements the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided the global community with up-to- date knowledge about the impacts of climate change. It projected that climate change will lead to a number of consequences for urban areas, including declining air quality, an increased number and severity of heat waves in cities in which heat waves already occur, increased pressure on infrastructure, and augmented stress on water resources. Furthermore, the Fourth Assessment Report noted that residents of some cities in the world, including some in Europe and the USA, have experienced high levels of mortality due to the impacts of extreme climate events. The 2003 European heat-related deaths and the deaths of over 1,000 people in New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina are two examples of this. The IPCC Fifth Assessment, now underway, will continue to address these important issues, building on the work of the ARC3. Due to the evolving nature of climate science, developing the ARC3 process into one that issues reports for cities on a regular basis is impor- tant. The UCCRN researchers will thus provide crucial information to urban decision-makers in a timely way as scientific understanding progresses. I am highly appreciative of the work of the members of the UCCRN from developing and developed cities who are participating in the ARC3 activity. Policymakers, administrators, and researchers from cities around the world will benefit from the information provided in ARC3, enabling them to develop effective programs for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  • 16.
    ix Foreword - MichaelR. Bloomberg Cities are the vanguard in the battle against climate change. We are the source of approximately 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emis- sions. And densely populated urban areas, particularly coastal cities, will disproportionately feel the impacts of climate change. Those of us in local government recognize the importance of national and interna- tional leadership on climate change. But we also are not waiting for others to act first. Through PlaNYC, New York City’s comprehensive sustainability plan that we released in April 2007, we are working to create a greener, greater New York. Many of the 127 initiatives in the plan focus on reducing our greenhouse gas emissions. These initiatives, including the Greener, Greater Buildings Plan, which will increase the energy effi- ciency of existing buildings, will help us meet our goal of reducing the city’s carbon emissions by 30 percent by 2030. Four years after launching PlaNYC, we are seeing the benefits of our efforts. Our greenhouse gas emissions are down by over 12 percent from 2005 levels, and we’ve developed the City’s first official climate change projections. We are now in the process of updating PlaNYC, and also doing more to draw on the creativity of New Yorkers in every borough. At the same time, we are learning from our colleagues across the world who are undertaking ambitious climate change mitigation and adaptation programs. Five years ago, 18 of the world’s great cities came together, to share best practices and make common cause in the effort to reduce green- house gas emissions. This group of 18 eventually grew into what is now the C40 Climate Leadership Group, a network of 40 of the largest cities in the world. The Urban Climate Change Research Network recognizes the potential and responsibility of cities to enact change, and highlights the strategies employed by cities across the globe who are leading the way towards a sustainable future. The strategies explored in this text will not only help to guide individual local government efforts, but also help to tell the story of the critical importance of local action. The best scientific data tell us that it is long past time to address that challenge. And the best demographic data tell us that cities must lead the way. Cities have demonstrated that we are prepared to boldly confront climate change. As mayors, we know that we don’t have the luxury of simply talking about change without delivering it. The ARC3 project will help ensure that we not only create a greener, greater New York for future generations, that we continue to learn from the lessons of our counterparts across the world, and that we share our progress and our story with our partners throughout government, academia, and the private sector. Michael R. Bloomberg Mayor, New York City
  • 17.
    x Foreword - JeffreyD. Sachs The twenty-first century will be the age of sustainable development - or the age of ruin. Worldwide economic growth over the past two centuries has brought remarkable progress but also remarkable risk. By mobilizing fossil fuels, humanity lifted itself from the ancient scourges of hunger, disease, and early death. Living standards and income levels in many parts of the world soared beyond the wildest of expecta- tions. Yet these gains are now bringing new and grave threats as well. Humanity has inadvertently pushed against the planet’s safe boundaries regarding greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes, pollution, and human-induced threats to biodiversity and public health. In the coming decades, the core challenge of societies around the world will be to refashion our ways of life – living patterns, technologies, and economic systems – so that we can combine the benefits of economic development with sustainable management of the Earth’s ecosystems. Cities will be at the center of this unique and unprecedented chal- lenge. During the past decade, humanity reached the decisive halfway point on the path to urbanization. From time immemorial until the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, almost all of humanity lived as subsistence farmers in the rural areas. Starting two centuries ago, with the mobilization of new energy resources and technologies, including in food production, humanity began a long-term transition to urban living. As farmers became more productive, a declining share of the population could feed the rest. For generations now, the children of farm families have been heading to the cities for a new urban life. Today, the UN tells us that a little more than 50 percent of the world now lives in cities, and that by 2050 the proportion is likely to rise to nearly 70 percent. How cities are structured – in the patterns of residential settlements, commercial and industrial land use, energy systems, transport networks, water and sewerage infrastructure, public health management, and more – will not only determine the quality of life of the majority of the world’s population, but also whether humanity, at long last, is able to live sus- tainably with nature. To learn to do so is vital. Our livelihoods and very lives will depend on it. But it will not be easy by any means. The scale, scope, and complexity of the challenge will rival any that humanity has faced in recent centuries. The new volume produced by the scientists of the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) is a lifeline to sustainability. We should be grateful that leading scientists from around the world have taken up the challenge of sustainable urbanization, with a specific focus on the interrelationship of city life and human-induced climate change. The authors of this remarkable report, the First Assessment Report of the UCCRN, are at the cutting edge of global science and policy. Every essay emphasizes the complexity of the challenges ahead, and how we are just at the start of reshaping our cities for sustainability. As this report makes amply clear, climate change will be a vital entry point for achieving sustainable development in the world’s cities. While climate change is just one of several environmental challenges facing the world, it is the largest, most complex, and most urgent. There can be no answers to other challenges of sustainable development – safe water, clean and abundant energy, and urban public health – unless they are also answers to the climate-change conundrum. As this volume explains, there are two interrelated aspects of the climate change puzzle. The first is adaptation. Human-induced climate change is already underway and will intensify in the coming decades. The cities will be threatened in several major ways, and every city must plan ahead to confront, manage, and where possible, fully head off the growing risks. Heat waves will threaten lives of vulnerable populations such as the elderly. Droughts, floods, and other natural hazards will become more frequent, though the vulnerability of specific cities will vary widely depending on their physical geography, climatology, level of economic development, the quality of governance, social cohesion, and the financial capacity to adjust. Rising sea levels may play havoc with coastal cities, submerging some areas, and making others far more vulnerable to storm surges, or adversely impacting key infrastructure. The other major challenge is climate change mitigation: reducing humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions in order to slow and eventually to stop or even reverse the human impacts on the climate. Mitigation is every bit as complex as adaptation, and often the two are closely intertwined. Green buildings can both reduce energy use and also increase resilience to heat waves and other climate hazards. Mitigation will require major long-term changes to energy systems, the design of buildings, transport networks, and urban spatial patterns and zoning. Changing these fundamental attributes of cities will often involve making deep changes in the fabric of city life and its underlying eco- nomics. Yet the task of mitigation, essentially moving to a low-carbon society, will have to be carried out in thousands of cities around the world. The process will require decades of persistent and creative poli- cymaking to achieve. There is no better place to start charting that tran- sition than with this pioneering report. Humanity is in uncharted territory. We must steer future technolo- gies and urban development in a directed and coherent manner, con- sistent with the best science, social fairness, and economic efficiency. This book is a remarkable, cutting-edge, how-to manual at the start of a decades-long process. The authors don’t claim to have all of the answers. Indeed, they constantly emphasize the uncertainties around climate forecasts, technological options, and social best practices. Yet the tools described here are the best around for getting started. The volume is extraordinary on several counts. First, it is comprehen- sive, in that it considers every major dimension of adaptation and miti- gation that cities will confront. Second, it is remarkably broad ranging in its case studies of dozens of cities around the world. These cases are enormously interesting and enormously instructive. Third, it draws on the very best current knowledge by recognized leaders in their respec- tive fields. Fourth, and impressively, it is very clearly written. This is not a theoretical tome. This is a volume that can guide policymakers in cities and national governments around the world to launch their own climate assessments, and to begin developing meaningful climate solutions for their cities. By complementing the work of the already existing body of knowledge developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) provides a rigorous set of analytical tools for effective mitigation and adaptation decision-making, and in a sector-by- sector approach that is likely to be of practical benefit for city planners, managers, businesses, and non-governmental organizations. Over one hundred scholars around the world, representing a diverse group of developing and developed country cities, have collaborated on the ARC3. The work is a triumph, a must-read study for city plan- ners, mayors, and managers around the world. The lead editors, Cynthia Rosenzweig, William D. Solecki, Stephen A. Hammer, and
  • 18.
    xi Foreword Shagun Mehrotra, meritour special thanks and admiration for taking on a challenge of such global significance, and for bringing the best of the world’s scientific knowledge together in such a useful and compre- hensive manner. Jeffrey D. Sachs Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University Special Advisor to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon on the Millennium Development Goals
  • 20.
    xiii Preface This volume isthe Urban Climate Change Research Network’s First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3). It contains an Executive Summary and the four sections of the report. This report would not be possible without the tremendous support of the Cities Alliance, UN-HABITAT, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Bank. We especially thank Wil- liam Cobbett and his team at Cities Alliance, Jean Christophe, Ricardo Jimenez, Sid Henderson, Neelam Tutej, Kevin Milroy, Viorica Revutch, Phyllis Kibui, and Madhavan Balachandra. At UN-HABITAT, we are thankful to Anna Tibaijuka and Joan Clos, the outgoing and incoming Executive Directors, and their team led by Rafael Tuts with Robert Kehew and Bernhard Barth, as well as others who provided useful reviews of ARC3. At the World Bank, we thank Inger Andersen, Vice President, Sus- tainable Development Department, and her team at the Urban Anchor led by Abha Joshi Ghani; Dan Hoornweg and Anthony Bigio of the Urban Anchor have been unfailingly supportive. At UNEP we would like to thank Soraya Smaoun. We would also like to thank the Sector Managers and Directors at the World Bank and the leaders of the UNFCCC and the IPCC who have supported the need for ARC3. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the U.S. Geological Survey also provided much-appreciated support for the ARC3 initiating workshop, through the enthusiastic leadership of Saroj Jha and DeWayne Cecil, respectively. They are all exemplary international public servants com- mitted to the development of effective ways for cities to confront climate change challenges and to identify opportunities in resolving them. We appreciate the advice provided by the members of the UCCRN Steering Group – Albert Bressand, Richenda Connell, Peter Droege, Alice Grimm, Saleemul Huq, Eva Ligeti, Claudia Natenzon, Ademola Omojola, Roberto Sanchez, and Niels Schulz – whose wisdom has guided the establishment of the network and the development of the ARC3 process. We gratefully acknowledge the discussions and feedback during Â� sessions with Mayors, their advisors, leaders of major institutions, urban policymakers, and scholars. In particular, we thank everyone who participated in ARC3 consultations: scholars at NCCARF 2010 Climate Adaptation Futures Conference in Australia; Konrad Otto- Zimmermann, Monica Zimmermann, Yunus Arikan, and participants at ICLEI’s Resilient Cities Adaptation Summit in Bonn; scholars and practitioners at UGEC’s Global Summit in Phoenix, Arizona; Mayors and city leaders at the C40 Large City Climate Change Summits in New York, Seoul, and Hong Kong; and at the Mayors Summit held during the COP15 in Copenhagen and the World Council of Mayors Summit held in Mexico City before COP16 in Cancun. At the UN-HABITAT’s World Urban Forum in Rio de Janeiro we benefited from the interaction with a broad array of urban stakeholders who shared their thoughts on how to maximize the effectiveness of the ARC3 process. We extend special gratitude to the urban leaders who represent a diverse group of cities, who have commended UCCRN and ARC3. We also give a special thanks to the many students at Columbia University (New York), The Daly College (Indore), and Tec de Monterry (Mexico City) for their keen interest in the emerging field of urban climate change, which helped push the ideas for this volume forward. This report is the product of the work of the over 100 dedicated members of the UCCRN ARC3 writing team representing more than 50 cities in developing and developed countries. We express our sincere thanks to each of them for their sustained and sustaining contributions, and to their institutions for supporting their participation. We especially thank Shobhakar Dhakal (Tsukuba), Toshiaki Ichinose (Tokyo), Haluk Gerçek (Istanbul), Claudia Natenzon (Buenos Aires), Martha Barata (Rio de Janeiro), and Ademola Omojola (Lagos) for their efforts on behalf of the UCCRN in Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa regions. We profoundly appreciate Joseph Gilbride and Somayya Ali for their tremendous work as the UCCRN ARC3 Project Managers, without whom the ARC3 could not have been completed in such a comprehen- sive and timely way. We also acknowledge the exceptional commitment of the ARC3 research assistants and interns, Jeanene Mitchell, Shailly Kedia, Young-Jin Kang, Masahiko Haraguchi, Steve Solecki, Casey Jung, Irune Echevarria, Lumari Pardo-Rodriguez and Kimberly Peng. At the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, we thank Daniel Bader, José Mendoza, Richard Goldberg and Adam Greeley for their technical expertise, and George Ropes, of www.climateyou.org, for his superb editing. We recognize with great esteem the expert reviewers of the ARC3 without whom the independent provision of sound science for climate change mitigation and adaptation in cities cannot proceed. It is a great honor that the ARC3 is being published by Cambridge University Press. We would especially like to thank Matt Lloyd, Editorial Director, Science, Technology and Medicine, Americas; Laura Clark, Assistant Editor; Abigail Jones, Production Editor; and their staff for their expert partnership in the publication of this volume. Finally, we are deeply grateful to the Columbia University Earth Institute and its Director Jeffrey Sachs for their support for the UCCRN ARC3 process from its inception. Cynthia Rosenzweig, William D. Solecki, Stephen A. Hammer, and Shagun Mehrotra, Editors First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities
  • 22.
    Climate Change andCities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network Executive Summary
  • 23.
    xvi Executive Summary Cities1 are hometo over half of the world’s people and are at the fore- front of the climate change issue. Climate change exerts added stress on urban areas through increased numbers of heat waves threatening the health of the elderly, the infirm, and the very young; more frequent and intense droughts and inland floods compromising water supplies; and for coastal cities, enhanced sea level rise and storm surges affecting inhabitants and essential infrastructure, property, and ecosystems. At the same time, cities are responsible for no less than 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and given current demographic trends, this level will likely only increase over time. These challenges highlight the need for cities to rethink how assets are deployed and people protected, how infrastructure investments are prioritized, and how climate will affect long-term growth and development plans. Work on the First Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) was launched by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) in November 2008 at a major workshop in New York City with the goal of building the scientific basis for city action on climate change. Eventually more than 100 lead and contributing authors from over 50 cities around the world contributed to the report, including experts from cities in both the developing and developed world, repre- senting a wide range of disciplines. The book focuses on how to use cli- mate science and socio-economic research to map a city’s vulnerability to climate hazards, and how cities can enhance their adaptive and miti- gative capacity to deal with climate change over different timescales. Key findings Defining the risk framework A new vulnerability and risk management paradigm is emerging as a useful framework for city decision-makers to analyze how their city should seek to adapt to the anticipated impacts of climate change. The UCCRN climate change vulnerability and risk assessment framework (Figure 1) is composed of three sets of indicators: • Climate hazards facing the city, such as more frequent and longer duration heat waves, greater incidence of heavy downpours, and increased and expanded coastal or riverine flooding; • Vulnerabilities due to a city’s social, economic, or physical attributes such as its population size and density, topography, the percentage of its population in poverty, and the percentage of national GDP that it generates; • Adaptive capacity aspects, factors that relate to the ability of a city to act, such as availability of climate change information, resources to apply to mitigation and adaptation efforts, and the presence of effective institutions, governance, and change agents. In most cities, readily available data exist about climate hazards (trends and projections), population and geographic features, and insti- Executive Summary tutional capacity that can serve as a foundation for adaptation planning efforts. In other cities that are still in the early stages of efforts to assess local vulnerabilities and climate risks, work can nonetheless begin by using generalized climate risks and information from similar urban areas as a starting point for local climate planning efforts. For example, in Sorsogon City in the Philippines, the city govern- ment developed its local vulnerability assumptions using climate change projections and risk assessments from national government agencies and private research institutions. Urban climate: processes, trends, and projections Cities already face special climatic conditions that must be accounted for when preparing long-term climate change adaptation plans. These include: • Urban heat island. Cities already tend to be hotter than surrounding suburban and rural areas due to the absorption of heat by concrete and other building materials and the removal of vegetation and loss of permeable surfaces, both of which provide evaporative cooling. • Air pollution. The concentration of residential, commercial, industrial, electricity-generating, and transportation activities (including automobiles, railroads, etc.) contributes to air pollution, leading to acute and chronic health hazards for urban residents. • Climate extremes. Major variability systems such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and 1 Cities are defined here in the broad sense to be urban areas, including metropolitan and suburban regions. Hazards Trends and projections Heat waves Droughts and floods Sea level rise Preciptation Vulnerability City size and density Topography % of poor % of GDP Adaptive capacity Information and resources Institutions and governance Figure 1:╇ Urban climate change vulnerability and risk assessment framework. Source: Mehrotra et al. (2009).
  • 24.
    xvii Executive Summary oceanic cyclonicstorms (e.g., hurricanes and typhoons) affect climate extremes in cities. How these systems will interact with anthropogenic climate change is uncertain, but awareness of their effects can help urban areas to improve climate resilience. Existing city-specific climate data and downscaled projections from global climate models can provide the scientific foundation for planning efforts by city decision-makers and other stakeholder groups (Figure 2). In twelve cities analyzed in depth in this report (Athens, Dakar, Delhi, Harare, Kingston, London, Melbourne, New York, São Paulo, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Toronto), average temperatures are projected to increase by between 1â•›°C and 4â•›°C by the 2050s. Most cities can expect more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves than they have experienced in the past. Additionally, variations in precipitation are projected to cause more floods as the intensity of rainfall is expected to increase. In many cities, droughts are expected to become more frequent, more severe, and of longer duration. Coastal cities should expect to experience more frequent and more damaging flooding related to storm events in the future due to sea level rise. In Buenos Aires, for example, damage to real estate from flooding is projected to total US$80 million per year by 2030, and US$300 mil- lion per year by 2050. This figure does not account for lost productivity by those displaced or injured by the flooding, meaning total economic losses could be significantly higher. Sector-specific impacts, adaptation, and mitigation Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on four sec- tors in most cities – the local energy system; water supply, demand, and wastewater treatment; transportation; and public health. It is critical Figure 2:╇ Cities represented in ARC3 and 2050s temperature projections for the NCAR CCSM 3.0 GCM with greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1b. Source: NCAR CCSM 3.0 – Collins et al. (2006); Emissions Scenario A1b – Nakicenovic et al. (2000). that policymakers focus their attention on understanding the nature and scale of the impacts on each sector, developing adaptation and mitiga- tion strategies, and determining policy alternatives. Climate change and urban energy systems Cities around the world have prioritized efforts to reduce energy con- sumption and the associated carbon emissions. This has been done both for localized efficiency reasons – to reduce the effects of high energy costs on household budgets, for example – as well as to respond to con- cerns that activities in cities are responsible for a large share of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emphasis is now being placed on urban energy system adaptation, as well, because climate change impacts such as the loss of key supply sources or transmission and distribution assets can jeopardize public health and the economic vitality of a city. For example, in New York City, power plants were historically sited on the waterfront to facilitate fuel supply delivery and to provide access to cooling waters. The majority of these facilities are at an elevation of less than 5m, making them susceptible to increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise (Figure 3). Increases in the incidence or duration of summertime heat waves may result in higher rates of power system breakdown or failure, par- ticularly if sustained high demand – driven by high rates of air con- ditioning use – stresses transmission and distribution assets beyond their rated design capacity. In Chinese cities, the number of households with air conditioners has increased dramatically in the past 15 years (Figure 4), although the extent to which usage is nearing a point where system vulnerabilities are heightened is still unclear. In cities heavily reliant on hydropower, changing precipitation patterns resulting from climate change may be problematic, if availability is reduced during summertime periods when demand is greatest.
  • 25.
    xviii Figure 3:╇ Locationand elevation of power plants along the East River in New York City. Source: Power plant data for 2000 from eGRID (US EPA, 2002) to reflect with recently retired plants deleted. New York City digital elevation model is from the USGS (1999), which has a vertical error of approximately +/-4 feet. 1991 250 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200 150 100 50 0 Figure 4:╇ Number of air conditioners per 100 households in selected Chinese cities. Source: CEIC (2010). For any given city, local analyses are necessary to determine the overall impact of climate change on energy demand, as it may increase or decrease depending on which of the seasonal effects of climate change (i.e., reduction in energy demand in cooler seasons and increased demand in warmer seasons) are most significant. Cities can take robust steps to reduce their energy demand and thus their carbon emissions, and it is increasingly clear that many of these steps also provide significant adaptation benefits. These steps include: • Develop demand management programs to cut peak load, reducing carbon emission levels and simultaneously lessening stress on the system during times of heightened vulnerability. • Capitalize on the natural replacement cycle to update power plants and energy networks to reduce their carbon intensity and simultaneously increase their resilience to flooding, storm, and temperature-related risks. Executive Summary
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    went sluggishly, andboth her passengers were sleepy. The only wakeful individual was the pig, who had ceased to yell, more from lack of breath than from any pleasant inclination, and was steadily employed in widening the hole cut for its head. A sharp puff of wind came off the land. Simultaneously, the pig freed himself from the sack, and started for home, oblivious of the fact that his hind legs were still tied together—a fact which checked its first leap, and sent it rolling, with an ear-splitting yell, against Nick's legs. That gentleman awoke with a start, and instinctively put the helm over, just at the wrong moment. The gust of wind struck them suddenly, and the boat heeled over, too far to right itself. The sail struck the water, and in an instant Nick, 'Possum and the pig were struggling together in the waves. The pig's troubles were quickly over. The rope round its hind legs, knotted by the capable Mr. Simpson, held firmly, and the water soon choked its cries as it sank for the last time. 'Possum and her father swam to the boat, which lay on its side, and clung to it, looking at each other. Well, of all the born fools! spluttered Mr. O'Connor, a vision of soaked wrath. I oughtn't to be let out. D'you know what happened? I don't—I was asleep, 'Possum admitted. First thing I knew, I was swimmin'. Well, you'd a right to go to sleep, but I hadn't, said Nick furiously. That darned pig got loose, an' barged into me just as the wind struck us. Now we're in a lovely fix, an' I've lost a jolly good pig, an' it hardly paid for an hour. And me hat. Well, I ought to be kicked for a careless fool!
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    Can't be helped,said 'Possum cheerfully. It was awful easy to go to sleep, sittin' still after havin' dinner in that hot kitchen. All very well for you to talk—you ain't got to pay for the pig! said her father morosely. I say, you climb up on the boat. 'Possum scrambled upon the boat, which lay on its side, held in position by the sail under the water. Then her father tried to follow her example; but the little craft ducked so ominously under his great weight that he slipped back into the lake. That'll never do—she won't hold both of us, he said. Then I'll get off, said 'Possum. I can easy hold on. You will not, said her father decidedly. Sit where you are, an' behave yourself. Tell you what—I'll work round an' stand on the mast: that'll be some support, an' it'll divide the weight better. He made his way round the bow until he could feel the mast with his feet, and gingerly stood on it. It creaked, and the boat swayed over; and for a moment Nick prepared to jump off again. Then, however, as the boat showed no further sign of sinking, he sighed with relief. You wouldn't call it exactly comf'table, but it's better than hangin' on in the water, he said. Can you see any sign of bein' picked up? 'Possum scanned the lake. Not any one in sight, she said. We're a bit off the usual track, aren't we? Do you reckon we'll drift into shore? It ain't far away. I don't, said Nick. We're out o' the way o' currents, as well as boats. Still, you never can tell where people'll cut across the lake; an' them hotel launches ought to be comin' home about this way. Well,
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    we just gotto stick it out. I'd give a dollar if me matches an' baccy hadn't got wet! The slow hours of the afternoon crept on. No one came near the castaways. Once or twice their hopes rose high, as a fishing-boat or a launch crossed the lake; but they were not seen, and their shouts died unheeded on the water. It seemed extraordinary that they should not be perceived, for the shore was not a mile away, and houses looked peacefully down upon them; it was maddening to see the cheery smoke curling upward from the chimneys, and to realize how near lay deliverance. They changed places after a while. Nick's great height made his position on the mast unbearably cramped, and when he had slipped off twice, 'Possum became firm. It's silly, she said. I can stand on that stick quite easy; it's different for you, an' you six feet four. Why, it doubles you up something cruel. She descended into the water, and occupied the position on the mast before the cramped man could regain it. I b'lieve the boat'll hold you all right, if you get up gently, said she. Go on—you're about due for a rest. Nick scrambled to her former seat, the boat merely swaying beneath him. He looked at her gratefully. My word, it's good to sit down! he said. That place is a fair terror, 'Poss; I ain't goin' to let you stay there long. Hot above an' cold below, it is—your feet an' legs is near froze, an' on top you're gettin' sunstroke. You just tell me when you want a spell. Oh, I'll stick it all right, said 'Possum. I had a mighty long spell already. They relapsed into silence. There was nothing to talk about.
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    They shouted, fromtime to time, until they were hoarse and weary; but no one heard them, and at last they ceased. Nick was growing very weary. Once he slipped off, half asleep, and 'Possum had to swim after him and bring him back to the boat. He seemed half-dazed, and a sick fear came over her that the heat of the sun on his bare head had been too much for him. She splashed water over his face, and he became more alive. Thought I might swim ashore, he said thickly. But I s'pose I'd better get back. He climbed laboriously upon the boat once more, and 'Possum returned to her perch on the submerged mast. The sun went down slowly, a red ball of fire, into the lake. It was a relief to be without its fierce rays; but as the short Australian twilight deepened into dusk the wind blew coldly on their soaked garments, and they shivered. O'Connor opened his heavy eyes, and looked at his daughter. I dunno how you can keep on there, he said. I'm near done, an' I'm twice as comf't'ble up here. Well, if you come out of it an' I don't, 'Poss, there's a sort of a will in the drawer where I keep the strychnine for the foxes. It'll fix up all about the farm. I say, chuck it, Dad! 'Possum said unsteadily. You ain't goin' to give in. Not if I can help it, he said. But I'm not far off done. There came across the water the dull beat of a screw and a red light showed faintly through the dusk. It was the Bairnsdale boat hurrying down to her night's rest; and the sight galvanized the weary castaways into fresh efforts. But the steamer passed them half a mile away, deaf to their shouts. Her gleaming lights fell across them as in mockery before she throbbed away towards the Entrance.
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    Well, that doesme, O'Connor said, after a long, silent pause. I'll drop off soon, 'Poss. Then you come an' perch up here. I won't, 'Possum said, with a sob. You ain't goin' to give in, Dad. Think of the kids—I can't manage them boys. I'm near done, 'Poss. No, you're not. The Sale boat'll be along in less than an hour now. She'll pick us up, I bet you. It'd be a miracle if she did, Nick said. What with the row of her engines, an' her passengers all talkin', how on earth's any one to hear us in the dark? It's no good, my girl. I'll drop off. If you do, I'll only come in after you, an' finish the way you do, said 'Possum between her teeth. It ain't like you, Dad, to be such a jolly old coward. You got to hang on, for the kids' sake. I'll try a bit longer, said her father meekly. But I'm dead beat, 'Poss. They fell silent again, save for the water lapping gently against their poor place of refuge. Unbearable pains were beginning to torment 'Possum; her feet, from standing on the narrow mast, were swollen and agonizingly painful, and pains like red-hot wires shot up her legs. Sometimes she let herself go into the water altogether, holding to the boat; but she was too weak to cling for long, and soon she was forced to climb back to her place of torture. Her father no longer spoke. She could see him dimly, leaning forward astride of the boat, and breathing heavily. Somehow the hour dragged by, and again the low throb came across the lake. 'Possum strained her eyes. At first the gloom was too thick to pierce, but presently she made out a dull glow from the
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    steamer's lights, andcould see the red gleam of the lantern at her mast. 'Possum cried to her father. Dad! It's the Sale boat. Yell!
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    'Dad! It's theSale Boat. Yell!'
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    O'Connor grunted heavily,half asleep, and utterly exhausted. She could get nothing more from him; and as the steamer drew nearer, she left the half-conscious man alone and uttered cry upon cry for help. Nearer and nearer yet the gleaming lights rushed upon her. She spent all her strength in a last cry, which ended in a sob as the steamer passed on. They've gone! she gasped. Well, we're done, anyhow! A bell clanged sharply, and with it a shout. Coo-ee! Who's there? She screamed in answer. The steamer was slackening speed, coming round in a half-circle; she could hear each clang of her telegraph. Voices came loudly. Who's there? Any one in trouble? Want help? But 'Possum had no words. She could only utter broken cries, that grew fainter and fainter. Her feet were slipping from the mast: she clung to the side of the boat with nerveless fingers that slipped and clawed for a fresh hold, and slipped again. Then, very dimly, it seemed, she heard the clash of oars in rowlocks, and a deep voice close to her. And then—nothing more. She woke in a little cabin. There was a faint light. Her feet and legs were full of pain, but she was wrapped in blankets, and even the pain could not keep her from feeling gloriously warm and comfortable. A kind-faced woman came forward. Where's 'Dad? 'Possum asked feebly. He's all right—asleep in a cabin. Where am I?
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    You're in theladies' cabin on the Omeo, said the woman. And I'm the stewardess, and we're tied up at Cuninghame, and you're not to worry about anything, you poor child. Drink this. 'Possum did not know what it was: but it was hot and pleasant and soothing, and the woman's kind voice was like music. There did not seem anything to worry about; she might as well go to sleep— and did so.
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    CHAPTER XIII AMATEUR SURGERY Aileen!Aileen! Are you there? It was very early on a hot December morning. Tom Macleod came up the yard hurriedly. His wife appeared at the back door, broom in hand. What is it, Tom? It's a poor beggar of a scrub-cutter, Tom said hurriedly. You know there are two men working up the Lake? Well, one has just been down to borrow a pony. He says his mate has broken his leg— the limb of a tree fell on him: and he's gone to bring him in here: we're the nearest people. I say, you studied first aid, didn't you? Aileen's heart turned to water. I did—but it's ages ago, she said. And I have never had any practical experience. I would be afraid to touch him. Well, something ought to be done, Tom said, obviously disappointed. Don't you remember anything about it? Aileen racked her memory. I could try, of course, she said slowly. But I should be terrified of making it worse. I think any sort of bandaging is better than leaving it altogether, said Tom. Let's try, at all events. It's the lower part of the leg that's broken.
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    That's easier thanthe thigh, at all events. Come on. I'll leave you to chop out splints while I run for an old sheet for bandages. She ran towards the wood-heap, but paused on the way to pick up an old paling. That will do, I think, she said, and knitted her brows, striving to think of long-forgotten instructions. I can't be perfectly certain of the lengths, but if you will cut it here—and here—it should be about right. She came back in a few moments, and together they tore and rolled bandages swiftly. It's the worst of luck that the motor has gone wrong, and I can't take the poor chap down in the launch, Tom said. It would have been such easy travelling. Now we'll have to lay him flat in the buggy, and you know what the jolting of that road is. Aileen thought a moment. There's a better way than letting him lie down, she said. I read of it the other day. You lash a padded board, stretching across from the seat to the splashboard, and let the patient sit up in the ordinary way—the good leg hanging down, and the broken one strapped to the board. The paper said the patient would hardly feel a jolt. Well, I know the lying-down position is simply torture, so we'll try your way, Tom said. With luck, we may catch the Bairnsdale boat with him—it doesn't go until nine, and it's only seven o'clock now. I hope they won't be long. The fellow who came in said he could manage to get him here on the pony, so I thought it was better for me to wait and get things ready here. I'll fix that board, if you will find something to pad it. Is Garth up? He's in his bath, I think.
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    You might tellhim to hurry and run the horses up as soon as he's dressed. I'll get the buggy out. I expect the poor beggar will want some nourishment—and a drink. We'll give him brandy before I touch the leg; and I have some strong soup I can 'hot up' for him to take afterwards. That's good, Tom said approvingly. If time is short, you could drive him in, couldn't you? and I'd ride ahead and try to hold the steamer back. I'm sure the captain would wait, under the circumstances. Splendid idea! I'm certain he would wait. But perhaps we won't need to, Aileen said. I'll go and get everything ready, and fix up some breakfast for Garth. Get something to eat yourself, Tom called after her. She shook her head, smiling, as she hurried in: breakfast for herself was the last thing to be thought of. But Tom came after her with long strides. Be sensible, dear, he said. It may be an ugly job; and you don't want to turn faint or have unsteady hands, for the poor chap's sake. That's true, Aileen admitted. Aren't you sensible! Well, I will eat something. She smiled into his eyes, and was gone. Garth, half-dressed, went flying down the paddock, and was soon urging the horses up the hill, with shrill shouts, to the stockyard. In a few minutes the buggy was ready, with the padded board in position. Just as Tom tied up the horses Roany whinneyed; and turning, he saw Jane, led by the scrub-cutter, coming up the hill, the injured man riding. A Coo-ee! brought Aileen hurrying out. She ran to the gate.
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    The patient waslittle more than a boy. He was crouched on the pony, leaning forward: one hand steadying himself on Jane's withers, the other under his knee, supporting the broken leg. As he saw Aileen his white face twisted into a smile, and he freed the hand under his knee that he might lift his hat. The leg sagged downwards. A cry broke from her. Oh, please, don't! Take care of your leg! The effort was almost the finishing touch to the long agony of the ride. The boy went forward helplessly, and, abandoning Jane, Tom and his mate lifted him off and laid him on the grass under the quince-tree. A little colour came back to his lips, and he gasped, Sorry! Tom slipped a hand under his head, holding brandy to his lips. Cow of a trip! said the other scrub-cutter. Had to carry him downhill and across the creek on me back, an' you know what the scrub is there! I fell twice with him. Mighty good luck the bone ain't through the skin, but it ain't. It's broke in two places, though. Aileen was on her knees on the grass, feeling the leg gently. Before, she had been sick with nervousness; but in the presence of the boy's agony, every thought but one fled from her—to help him. She was perfectly cool. I'm afraid I've got to hurt you, she said. I'll be as quick as I can. She ran her hands up and down the leg, feeling, with an involuntary shudder, the bones grate under the skin, She must get it straight, she knew. Gently, but firmly, she pulled it into position. Once she heard him gasp, but her hands did not falter. It was straight at last, and she signed to Tom. Hold it—just like that.
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    She laid thesplints in position, and bandaged them tightly, forgotten deftness coming back to her. Round and round the firm hands went steadily, until the leg, swathed like a mummy, stuck out stiffly before her. Then she sat back on her heels. That's all I can do, she said, finding her lips stiff and dry. The voice was not like her own. Look carefully, Tom, and tell me if you think it is straight. As far as I can see—perfectly, Tom said, peering at the leg. I guess it's straight, said the patient cheerfully, 'cause it don't hurt now, hardly a bit. An' it was a fair caution before you touched it. Where'd you learn how, mum? But Aileen had no power to answer. She found herself suddenly shuddering, and drenched in perspiration. Tom put his hand on her shoulders, and made her drink a little brandy. Oh, I was so afraid! she whispered, so dreadfully afraid! Are you sure it's straight? It must be, he said gently, or he wouldn't be out of pain. Pull yourself together, dear—remember we haven't much time. And he must have the soup. Oh, I'm sorry, she said. I'm all right, Tom; don't worry. Will you two get him into the buggy while I bring the soup? She hurried away. When she came back, with the steaming cup in her hand, the patient was sitting up in the buggy, wearing a wide smile, while Tom strapped the leg to the board above the knee and at the foot. Garth stood sentry-fashion at the horse's head, his eyes shining with excitement.
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    By Jove, that'sgood! said the broken-legged one, tasting the soup. And I'd hardly know me ol' laig was broke, I'm that comfortable. You're a great doctor, ain't you now, Mrs. Macleod? I hope I didn't hurt you much, she said, smiling at him faintly. She was still trembling. Not you. That ol' pony hurt like fury, an' it was a fair caution when Bill fell down with me. Twice, he did; Bill's a great hand at fallin'. He grinned at Bill. Thank y'r lucky stars I was big enough to carry y'r great carcase, said that worthy, not at all abashed. Might as well be decently grateful: I can tell you, you ain't no luxury to carry! Finished? Tom asked, handing the empty cup to Garth. Get the place tidy, son; mother's going to drive in. We'll be back soon. He helped Aileen to the driver's seat, handing her the reins. You haven't too much time. I'll go ahead and try to hold the boat. Jump up behind—to the mate. I'll leave the gates open as I go, and you can shut them. He swung himself upon the pony, and trotted down the hill. It was with a shiver of dread that Aileen felt the first severe jolt as they jogged over the rough paddock track. She glanced anxiously at her patient. Did that hurt you much? 'Ardly felt it, said he. This dodge of yours is the best ever I see. Every one else puts a man full length on a mattress, an' crikey! don't it hurt! Every little jolt'll make a man howl. But this is like bein' in an armchair, and the jolts don't seem to worry you at all. They bumped heavily over a tussock, and his calmness bore out the truth of his words.
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    She was thankfulfor it, for there was no time to waste. Her patient, smoking and chattering, was apparently indifferent as to whether he caught the steamer. I don't reckon any ol' doctor is goin' to make a better job of this laig than you done, he said, carelessly. But to Aileen it was unthinkable that they should not catch it. She had no belief in her own ability to set a broken leg properly. That the boy should be cheerful, and almost out of pain, was a kind of pleasant miracle, but she could not realize that her unskilled hands could possibly have caused it. She would not have been surprised if, at any moment, he had broken down again in shivering agony. The dread lest she should have made some mistake almost choked her—how could she ever face him in the future if the leg she had doctored were crooked, or shorter than the other? He was such a boy! She could not bear to think that he might be crippled, and because of her. I say! said the patient, suddenly alert. There's a snake! Do stop, Mrs. Macleod, and let Bill kill the brute. Not for fifty snakes! said Aileen firmly. She brought down the whip with emphasis on Roany's back. The snake, a big brown one, slid away into a patch of bracken. I don't believe in letting snakes go, said the patient severely. You never can tell where it's going to turn up again. It's like leavin' poison lyin' about loose where there's kids. You wouldn't like your own kid to meet that chap if he was runnin' about in the scrub, not thinkin'. Aileen had a feeling of having been put in the corner by a small boy.
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    I know, shesaid meekly. And I truly would not leave it, if we had time. But this is a lonely part, and there are no children—and it is very important to get you to a doctor quickly. If we miss the boat, you know, it means waiting a whole day. Ah, doctors! said the boy scornfully. I knew one once in South Gippsland where a chap broke his laig, same as me, and some one set it, and got him pretty right for the time bein'. They took him home an' wired for a doctor to a place ten mile away, tellin' him what was the matter, so's he'd bring the proper fixin's. He come along after a bit, took off the setting an' looked at the laig, an' said it was set all right, an' he'd left the splints an' things at the hotel, an' he must go an' get them. So he left that laig with nothin' on it but a blanket, an' went off; an' he didn't come back for seven hours! But why? Why? 'Cause he was playin' billiards an' havin' a good time. That's why. They sent ever so many messages to him, an' the poor chap lay there, with his laig swellin' something cruel. Then the doctor come back at last, an' if you'll believe me he'd never brought a thing with him! He took them old bandages an' rough bits of wood they'd used for splints—the things he'd taken off an' chucked aside in the morning—an' put 'em on the laig again: all dirty, they was, from bein' against his ol' workin' pants. But why did he not bring the proper things? Nobody never knew. He didn't, anyhow. When that laig was set first, by the chap as did it in the Bush, it was as straight and comft'ble as anything could be. But when that beautiful doctor done it, it wasn't straight. He put on the things quite loose and careless. The man's mate was there, an' said so, an' the doctor flared up like
  • 44.
    packet of crackers.'Do you think I don't know me business?' says he. 'I'm blooming well sure you don't,' says the mate. What did he say to that? Aileen asked. Not a thing. You couldn't insult him—he hadn't no decent pride. He just finished tyin' up the poor bloke's laig, an' went off, sayin' he'd come back in three days an' look at him. But the chap suffered very bitter in his heel all night, an' next morning his foot was stickin' out turned half-ways round. They sent five mile into the Bush for the man that had set it first, to come an' straighten it an' set it again. Did he? No, he had sense. He said he couldn't take the responsibility of touching it. So they packed the poor chap an' his laig up on a stretcher, with the laig just as the doctor had left it, an' sent him up to the Melbourne Hospital. They said it was the laughin'-stock of the whole place—they asked was it a doctor as had done it, or a goanna? I never heard of such a thing! Aileen breathed. Did he—was he lame afterwards? Well, he wasn't, but it was luck. And it was ages before he was better, an' him out of work all the time. So that's why I ain't in any hurry to get to any ol' doctors. Me laig's comft'ble now, an' I'd like it to stay so. But all doctors aren't like that, thank goodness, Aileen said. I know one who saved my boy's life. And when he comes into a house where there is sickness, you feel as if he had suddenly shouldered all your troubles. Oh, I suppose there's good and bad in all trades! her patient admitted handsomely. Only that fool Englishman in South Gippsland
  • 45.
    was the onlyone I ever met very intimate, so to speak. But I've heard they're good in Bairnsdale. I know they are, Aileen assured him. And there's a big, comfortable hospital where you'll be splendidly looked after. You see, it's all very well now, when you haven't had time to get tired; but you will be glad enough to be in bed after a while. I s'pose I will; but I never was in bed a day in me life, he said ruefully. Oh, well, if I'm fool enough to let a limb hit me, I got to pay for it. They were approaching the outskirts of the township. Scattered houses came in view, and the roar of the surf grew plainer as they drew near to the narrow lagoon that lies between Cuninghame and the sand hummocks of the Ninety Mile Beach. Above it came three long discordant hoots. My word, that's the steamer! said the man at the back. Can you get a bit more out of that ol' pony, mum? Aileen was already plying the whip, much to Roany's disgust. He shook his head angrily from side to side, and finally broke into a lurching canter. Tom came in view, riding to meet them. Hurry all you can! he said briefly. The captain has kept the steamer almost as long as he dares; you see, he carries the mail from some places. I'll tell him you're coming. They turned into the esplanade, and rocked down past the houses and the stores. Near the wharf a knot of people waited, gazing curiously at them. The paddle-steamer was at the wharf, smoke pouring from her funnel. Aileen could see the tall figure of the captain leaning over the railing. He shouted something she could not hear. She pulled up near the wharf, with a sigh of relief.
  • 46.
    There were plentyof willing hands to help to carry the patient to the steamer. The captain had offered his cabin, but the boy begged to be left on deck. I'll be inside four walls long enough, I expect, he said. Let's stop out here. So they propped him up where he could look across the lake, with his bandaged leg sticking stiffly out in front of him. He looked at it with a wry smile. A nice object, you are! he said. He held out his hand to Aileen. Thanks, Mrs. Macleod. If I've ever the luck to be able to do a good turn for you, I'll do it. But you would do that if you'd never hurt your leg, she said, laughing. I think all Gippslanders are ready to do good turns! Take care of yourself, and good luck! She turned to his mate. You'll let us know how he gets on? My word, yes, said Bill. He also shook hands vigorously. Great bit of luck we struck you, mum, anyhow! The steamer gave an agonized hoot, and Tom and Aileen sought the wharf hurriedly. They stood, watching, while the big, top-heavy- looking, boat moved slowly out from the wharf, with great churnings of her paddles, and set off down the lagoon towards the lake opening out ahead. Aileen suddenly realized that she was very tired. And the washing-up not done! she said. It's very bad management to begin the day with such dissipation! Come home, Tom. Right-oh! Tom answered. I'll lead Jane, and come with you in the buggy. He helped her in, and they jogged back along the esplanade. Are you very done up, my girl?
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    Oh, a littlebit tired, she said. I think it's more from fear than anything else. Well, you had no reason to be afraid, he said. Your job was all right. I was proud of you! But it wasn't an easy thing to tackle. However, none of us need worry now when we break an odd limb or two: all we have to do is to get as comfortable as possible, light a pipe, and wait for you! If you dare——! said his wife, laughing. Why not? But apart from joking, Aileen, our 'Possum has been having adventures. They told me about it when I was waiting for you at the wharf. He told her the story of the wrecked boat. And where is she now? Aileen asked anxiously. Is she ill? Her feet and legs are pretty painful, they said. But she wouldn't see a doctor, or stay in Cuninghame; and her father was better, so he took her home yesterday. I must go over and see if I can do anything, Aileen said decidedly. Well, I thought you'd like to. But are you fit for it, dear? I shall be quite all right, especially when I have some tea! she said. Tea is the one thing my soul craves for. I'll brew the largest teapot in the house directly we get home, Tom said. And you will just keep quiet and take things easy. You won't need to do any cooking, will you? I should like to take a basket of things over to the O'Connors, she said. But I won't do much, really, Tom. I'll starve my poor family on 'Possum's account! If I believed that you would, I'd be contented, he said. But I know you better. When shall we go over?
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    Oh, after dinner.We'll take Garth—the poor man has had a horrid morning. Garth did not consider that he had had a horrid morning at all. It was not every day that the thrilling excitement of a broken leg came his way; and later, he had found enormous satisfaction in dusting and tidying the house, and in spurring Horrors to amazing efforts in the kitchen. The housework was done by the time the buggy drew up at the back gate—if the corners were not above reproach, Aileen knew better than to look at them. She looked instead at her little son's glowing face, and kissed him, with moist eyes; and Tom's deep Well done, old man! sent Garth into the seventh heaven. There was a big basket stowed in the back of the buggy when they set off early in the afternoon: such things as might relieve the anxieties of a crippled housekeeper and of a cook of twelve. A big piece of cooked mutton; a crisp, brown loaf of soda bread, and a bundle of scones tied up in a fresh, white cloth; a big cake of the kind that invites hungry people to cut and come again, and, in a special corner, a glass of jelly and a sponge cake, warm yet, and light and puffy: things to tempt an invalid. Won't it be 'strordinary to see 'Possum in bed? Garth chattered. Do you think she has dungaree nighties, mother? O'Connor's farm lay two miles away, in a dark valley between hills covered with gum trees. There was no gate leading into it: only heavy slip-rails, fitting into rusty horse shoes nailed to posts on either side. Like their own farm, it had scarcely any homestead track: they bumped over tussocks and rough ground, and wriggled a tortuous way round logs and clumps of scrub. 'Possum and her
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    father nearly alwaysrode; and the children walked two miles across the paddocks to the little Bush school. There were few wheel-marks on O'Connor's land. Little Joe was playing on the wood-heap near the door as the Macleods drove up. He greeted Garth with a grin of joy, and Garth's father and mother with shy pleasure. How is 'Possum, Joe? asked Aileen, descending. Is she asleep? 'Poss? Asleep? Gwacious, no! said 'Possum's brother, in amazement. She's feeding the calf. Come on down to the shed. He led the way across the untidy yard. The shed was a half- open place, tenanted by a dray, two ploughs, a harrow, sundry old iron, and a calf. The calf was tied to the wheel of the dray, and at the moment was strenuously objecting to take nourishment, which 'Possum, seated on a wheelbarrow, was endeavouring to administer by means of a baby's bottle. The efforts of the calf to withdraw were frustrated by the combined muscles of Bertha, young Bill and little Polly, who held it firmly in position and talked to it in good plain terms. The calf, however, was obdurate, and at last 'Possum gave up the attempt. Oh, let him go! she said, without noticing the new-comers. I wouldn't mind if it was on'y his feed, but it's his med'cine as well. We'll hot it up after a bit, Bill, an' try him again. Might as well try 'n' pour milk into a gate-post! said young Bill, disgustedly, prodding, with a bare toe, the calf, which had lain down thankfully on its straw. Brute! I dunno how Daisy come to have such a mis'rable little runt of a thing!
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    Jolly careless ofher, said 'Possum. Now you just turn me round, an' wheel me up easy, Bert. Don't go an' pitch me out, like you near did comin' down! Let me help, said Tom, stepping forward. Every one jumped, and 'Possum turned a lively pink. Sorry, she said gruffly, looking at her bandaged feet, which were thrust over the edge of the wheelbarrow, I'm lame, like the silly ass I am, so the kids have to wheel me round—that fool of a calf won't drink for Bill, but he gen'lly-as-a-rule will for me. Don't you bother, Mr. Macleod; Bert can get me up all right. I don't believe Bertha's half as good in the shafts of a barrow as I am! Tom retorted. I've been broken in ever so much longer than she has; I wouldn't trust her not to kick! Which pleasantry reduced Bertha to suppressed giggles, until she grew alarmingly red in the face. Tom wheeled the barrow up the steep yard, and paused at the kitchen door. It was a dark, low room, lit only by one small window; but it was spotlessly neat and clean. A rough home-made sofa, from which a coarse rug had been flung back, stood under the window. Is that your camp? Tom asked, indicating the sofa. 'Possum nodded, looking more wretchedly uncomfortable than before. If—if you'n' missus 'ud go into the front room, I can get to it, she muttered, crimsoning. You can't walk, 'Possum? Aileen put a hand on her shoulder. No, but I can manage. She dropped her voice to a whisper. Please do take the boss away! I say! said Tom unhappily. It isn't fair to shunt me like that, 'Possum. He turned to the silent children. How did she get to the
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    barrow, Bill? Crawled 'n'rolled, said young Bill briefly. An' it hurt her like fury. Well, you aren't going to crawl and roll this time, said Tom, with decision. And you can't sit in that barrow all day. Now you just behave yourself, 'Possum; I'm going to make believe you're Garth. You've no idea how handy I got as a nurse when he was ill. Without giving her time to make any further protest he lifted her gently and carried her across to the sofa, putting her down as easily as though she had been a featherweight, and arranging the rug across her knees. He talked fluently all the time, without looking at her. This is a sort of hospital day for us, he said. You've been trying to drown yourself and fill the lake with cold pork, and the Missus has been setting broken legs until her brain reeled. And Garth has been cook and bottle-washer, and what the family would have done without him I tremble to think. He even made Horrors hurry, and I guess you know what sort of a job that would be, 'Possum! Horrors showed signs of swooning from overwork and brain-fag by the time Garth had finished with him. The missus will tell you all about it. Now I'm off to talk to that calf, with Bill. Come along, Bill. I don't think the calf likes a crowd any more than I do when I've medicine to take. He took the calf's rejected bottle, to which 'Possum had clung instinctively, and went out, Bill at his heels. Jus' fancy him carryin' me like that! 'Possum uttered, her eyes shining. Ain't he the limit! Oh, you were good to come, Missus! Of course we had to come, Aileen said, shaking up a cushion, and putting her back upon it gently. Wasn't our station-manager ill!
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