The Future of Governance,
Resiliency, and Co-Existence
dr. david a. bray, executive director
people-centered internet coalition
“in his locis scorpiones nascuntur”
(in these places scorpions are born)
1969
Going #Exponential
1982
Going #Exponential
1993
2007
2014
Will The Internet Re-Enforce
Global Human Rights?
Or Will Misinformation &
Exploitation Divide Us All?
Quo Vadis? Where Do Open
Pluralistic Societies Want to Go
2013: 7B network devices
4 billion TB of digital data on the planet
~3B (out of 7.1B) people online
The Exponential Storm Ahead
2013: 7B network devices
4 billion TB of digital data on the planet
~3B (out of 7.1B) people online
2025: 100B+ network devices
200+ billion TB of digital data on the planet
plus ~7B (out of 8B) people online
The Exponential Storm Ahead
If We Put the 232 (~4.3 billion) Numbers
Addressable by IPv4 into a Beach Ball
The 2128 (~340 followed by 36 zeros) Numbers
Addressable by IPv6 Equal the Volume of our Sun
Laws, Technologies, and
Narratives Redistribute Power
Autocratic, Closed Societies May Out-PerformAutocratic, Closed Societies May Out-Perform
Open, Pluralistic Society Unless We Find
Autocratic, Closed Societies May Out-Perform
Open, Pluralistic Society Unless We Find
New Ways to Govern & Co-Exist
Challenges of Our Exponential Era
Everyone Can Find Information that Supports
Our Existent beliefs à Confirmation Bias
= Facts Alone Don’t Sway Perceptions
Digital Tsunami of Data is De-Valuing Expertise
Challenges of Our Exponential Era
Cognitive Easing à Repetition Makes Us More
Likely to Believe Something
= Countering Misinformation Helps Spreads It
Counter-Facts May Even Amplify Existing Views
Challenges of Our Exponential Era
#1 Way to Go Viral: Make an Angry Post or Video
#2 Way: Make a Fearful Post or Video
Goal: Want Divided Sides to Continue Its Spread
Return of 1890s Emotional Headlines
Will Exponential Changes
Empower New Governments?
• Autocracies ß Surveillance & Control by Algorithms?
• Monarchies ß Social Media Vassals & Serfs?
• Theocracies ß Different AIs as “New Gods” & Faiths?
• Republics ß Pop Stars & Global CEOs-as-Senators?
• Communism ß Universal Basic Income for All?
• (Participatory) Democracies ß Distributed Ledgers?
Or Will Nation State
Governments Fade?
• Boards of Elected Algorithms & Humans?
• Partnerships across Sectors, Mediated by AI?
• Community Groups focused on Hyper-Localism?
• Non-Gov’t Orgs for Activities Without Explicit Authority
• Transnational Orgs w/ Corporations as Rulemakers?
• Networked Ideologies fighting for Social Dominance?
#ChangeAgents = Leaders who
“illuminate the way” and manage friction
of stepping outside the status quo
All of Us
Private Sector Public Sector
Academia Non-Profits
Building Bridges
Needed Now More Than Ever
Are There Activities We Can Do
as Positive #ChangeAgents?
Can Canada help Bridge the Different
Directions of Europe, the U.S., and China?
Perhaps a Modern Day Update to the
Categorical Imperative:
“Do unto Others as you think it is in their best
interest and seek Informed Consent to Occur?”
Challenge: What is Truly Informed Consent?
Towards a Better Future
The ‘Veil of Ignorance’ – Everyone is Biased by
their Experiences, Identity, and Context
Can We Ever Truly Free Ourselves of Bias?
Challenge: How to Be Open-Minded in Societies
That Pressures Us to Take Sides?
Towards a Better Future
How Judge if Someone Behaves Ethically If They
Have (1) Textbook Knowledge and (2) Real-World
Skills Beyond the Normal Public?
Professions = Public Allowed Certain Groups to
Self-Govern Credentialed Individuals by
a Code of Values and Qualified Experience
Towards a Better Future
138 139 137
135 132 135
121 104 111
13595 89
Power of Diversity
Learned perspectives may limit the search space any
one individual uses to reach an answer, even for
“smart” individuals
IQ view of the “Alpha”Group IQ view of the Diverse Group
Multiple individuals with varying perspectives
expand the search space employed, the result is a
diverse crowd has more “tools” to apply
Toolbox view of the “Alpha”Group Toolbox view of the Diverse Group
138 139 137
135 132 135
121 104 111
13595 89
ABC ABC ACD
BCD ADE BCD
AHK FD AEG
BCDEZ IL
Power of Diversity
Works IF shared goals are established up front,
else diversity leads to fragmentation
Additional research shows equal turn taking in
conversations and active listening also essential
Power of Diversity
Obligations to Society? Acknowledged Biases?
Responsible Actions? Safeguards?
Obligations to Society? Acknowledged Biases?
A Framework for Good
Governance in Uncertain Times
Both Experiments and Expertise
Have the root “ex peria” = “produced out of danger”
Experiments build our Expertise
Be Bold, Brave, and
Benevolent
Going #Exponential
Taking a Risk:
Manage Friction of Stepping Outside
the Status Quo
Going #Exponential
Taking a Risk:
ABCs of Governance, Co-Existence,
and our Exponential Era Ahead
A is Always-On Access
Accessibility
Affordability
We All Must Address
the Digital Divide
B is Bring Your Own _Blank_
Be it Earpieces,
Glasses, or Watches
What We Wear
Will Be Online
C is Careful Caution
Correlations Cross
Connected Data
Crucial We
Protect Privacy
D is Data Deluge
Global Data
in 2021
Should Exceed All Words
Humanity Ever Said
Exponential Everywhere
Everyone
Everything
From Fourteen Billion
Devices in 2013
By 2021:
Fifty Billion
Or More Around Our World
G is Great Opportunities
Greater Results
and
Government Reinvented
H is How Best to Engage
the Public?
How Best with
Local Governments?
How Best to Help Each Other?
It Is Important to Include
All Perspectives
In Initiatives
Including Those Who Opt-Out
of Internet Use
Just Because Data Sources
Can Be Joined
Doesn’t Mean We Should
Joint Discussions With the
Public On Privacy By Design
Key to Keep in Mind
The Public Will Help
Regularly Remind
That We Must Serve
Benevolently and Kind
Letting Anyone Reuse our Code
License Liberties Will
Promote More Trust
Leverage Future Reuse
Across Our Efforts
Makers Movement Means
More Can
Manufacture
Mass Fabricated Tools
Affordably
Notions of What
Nations Solely Did
Near Future
May Challenge
New Tech is About Networks
Open Source
and Security
Open Design
and Inclusion
Open Choices, For Us All
Promoting Positive Change
Perhaps the Perplexing Part:
Legacy Processes
Future Depends on
Purposeful Transformations
Quite Simply:
Tech Changes
How We Organize
Quite the Question:
How Will We?
R is Raising Questions:
Regarding the Future
of Security?
Rational Online Discussions?
Representative Democracy?
S is Scale of Change
Since It Is Not Linear
It’s Exponential
Search By Keywords
One Day Will No Longer Suffice
T is Trying to Tell
What is Important
In the Data Deluge
Techniques, Tools, and Tactics
Transform How We Will Work
Ultimately it’s About Uses
Use By Humans
Trusting Humans, and
Use By Machines
Trusting Machines
V is Volume
Velocity
Variety
Volatility
Veracity
With the Coming Future
We’re Going Where
We’ve Never Been
We Will Need New
Ways To Adapt
X is eXponential
eXperiments
to eXchange
eXpertise
Y is You Matter
More Than Ever
You Can Help Transform
Our #PublicService and
You Can Be Positive
#ChangeAgents
Zeros and Ones
It’s Much More Than That
Zooming Towards The Future
While Remaining True
to
A Plurality of People
Needed Now More Than Ever:
Positive #ChangeAgents
for Our Exponential Times
be bold, brave, and benevolent
changeagents@peoplecentered.net

Citizenship in an Exponential Era - David Bray

  • 1.
    The Future ofGovernance, Resiliency, and Co-Existence dr. david a. bray, executive director people-centered internet coalition
  • 2.
    “in his locisscorpiones nascuntur” (in these places scorpions are born) 1969 Going #Exponential
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
    Will The InternetRe-Enforce Global Human Rights?
  • 8.
    Or Will Misinformation& Exploitation Divide Us All?
  • 9.
    Quo Vadis? WhereDo Open Pluralistic Societies Want to Go
  • 10.
    2013: 7B networkdevices 4 billion TB of digital data on the planet ~3B (out of 7.1B) people online The Exponential Storm Ahead
  • 11.
    2013: 7B networkdevices 4 billion TB of digital data on the planet ~3B (out of 7.1B) people online 2025: 100B+ network devices 200+ billion TB of digital data on the planet plus ~7B (out of 8B) people online The Exponential Storm Ahead
  • 12.
    If We Putthe 232 (~4.3 billion) Numbers Addressable by IPv4 into a Beach Ball
  • 13.
    The 2128 (~340followed by 36 zeros) Numbers Addressable by IPv6 Equal the Volume of our Sun
  • 14.
    Laws, Technologies, and NarrativesRedistribute Power Autocratic, Closed Societies May Out-PerformAutocratic, Closed Societies May Out-Perform Open, Pluralistic Society Unless We Find Autocratic, Closed Societies May Out-Perform Open, Pluralistic Society Unless We Find New Ways to Govern & Co-Exist
  • 16.
    Challenges of OurExponential Era Everyone Can Find Information that Supports Our Existent beliefs à Confirmation Bias = Facts Alone Don’t Sway Perceptions Digital Tsunami of Data is De-Valuing Expertise
  • 17.
    Challenges of OurExponential Era Cognitive Easing à Repetition Makes Us More Likely to Believe Something = Countering Misinformation Helps Spreads It Counter-Facts May Even Amplify Existing Views
  • 18.
    Challenges of OurExponential Era #1 Way to Go Viral: Make an Angry Post or Video #2 Way: Make a Fearful Post or Video Goal: Want Divided Sides to Continue Its Spread Return of 1890s Emotional Headlines
  • 19.
    Will Exponential Changes EmpowerNew Governments? • Autocracies ß Surveillance & Control by Algorithms? • Monarchies ß Social Media Vassals & Serfs? • Theocracies ß Different AIs as “New Gods” & Faiths? • Republics ß Pop Stars & Global CEOs-as-Senators? • Communism ß Universal Basic Income for All? • (Participatory) Democracies ß Distributed Ledgers?
  • 20.
    Or Will NationState Governments Fade? • Boards of Elected Algorithms & Humans? • Partnerships across Sectors, Mediated by AI? • Community Groups focused on Hyper-Localism? • Non-Gov’t Orgs for Activities Without Explicit Authority • Transnational Orgs w/ Corporations as Rulemakers? • Networked Ideologies fighting for Social Dominance?
  • 21.
    #ChangeAgents = Leaderswho “illuminate the way” and manage friction of stepping outside the status quo
  • 22.
    All of Us PrivateSector Public Sector Academia Non-Profits Building Bridges Needed Now More Than Ever
  • 23.
    Are There ActivitiesWe Can Do as Positive #ChangeAgents? Can Canada help Bridge the Different Directions of Europe, the U.S., and China?
  • 24.
    Perhaps a ModernDay Update to the Categorical Imperative: “Do unto Others as you think it is in their best interest and seek Informed Consent to Occur?” Challenge: What is Truly Informed Consent? Towards a Better Future
  • 25.
    The ‘Veil ofIgnorance’ – Everyone is Biased by their Experiences, Identity, and Context Can We Ever Truly Free Ourselves of Bias? Challenge: How to Be Open-Minded in Societies That Pressures Us to Take Sides? Towards a Better Future
  • 26.
    How Judge ifSomeone Behaves Ethically If They Have (1) Textbook Knowledge and (2) Real-World Skills Beyond the Normal Public? Professions = Public Allowed Certain Groups to Self-Govern Credentialed Individuals by a Code of Values and Qualified Experience Towards a Better Future
  • 27.
    138 139 137 135132 135 121 104 111 13595 89 Power of Diversity Learned perspectives may limit the search space any one individual uses to reach an answer, even for “smart” individuals IQ view of the “Alpha”Group IQ view of the Diverse Group
  • 28.
    Multiple individuals withvarying perspectives expand the search space employed, the result is a diverse crowd has more “tools” to apply Toolbox view of the “Alpha”Group Toolbox view of the Diverse Group 138 139 137 135 132 135 121 104 111 13595 89 ABC ABC ACD BCD ADE BCD AHK FD AEG BCDEZ IL Power of Diversity
  • 29.
    Works IF sharedgoals are established up front, else diversity leads to fragmentation Additional research shows equal turn taking in conversations and active listening also essential Power of Diversity
  • 30.
    Obligations to Society?Acknowledged Biases? Responsible Actions? Safeguards? Obligations to Society? Acknowledged Biases? A Framework for Good Governance in Uncertain Times
  • 31.
    Both Experiments andExpertise Have the root “ex peria” = “produced out of danger” Experiments build our Expertise Be Bold, Brave, and Benevolent
  • 32.
    Going #Exponential Taking aRisk: Manage Friction of Stepping Outside the Status Quo
  • 33.
    Going #Exponential Taking aRisk: ABCs of Governance, Co-Existence, and our Exponential Era Ahead
  • 34.
    A is Always-OnAccess Accessibility Affordability We All Must Address the Digital Divide
  • 35.
    B is BringYour Own _Blank_ Be it Earpieces, Glasses, or Watches What We Wear Will Be Online
  • 36.
    C is CarefulCaution Correlations Cross Connected Data Crucial We Protect Privacy
  • 37.
    D is DataDeluge Global Data in 2021 Should Exceed All Words Humanity Ever Said
  • 38.
  • 39.
    From Fourteen Billion Devicesin 2013 By 2021: Fifty Billion Or More Around Our World
  • 40.
    G is GreatOpportunities Greater Results and Government Reinvented
  • 41.
    H is HowBest to Engage the Public? How Best with Local Governments? How Best to Help Each Other?
  • 42.
    It Is Importantto Include All Perspectives In Initiatives Including Those Who Opt-Out of Internet Use
  • 43.
    Just Because DataSources Can Be Joined Doesn’t Mean We Should Joint Discussions With the Public On Privacy By Design
  • 44.
    Key to Keepin Mind The Public Will Help Regularly Remind That We Must Serve Benevolently and Kind
  • 45.
    Letting Anyone Reuseour Code License Liberties Will Promote More Trust Leverage Future Reuse Across Our Efforts
  • 46.
    Makers Movement Means MoreCan Manufacture Mass Fabricated Tools Affordably
  • 47.
    Notions of What NationsSolely Did Near Future May Challenge New Tech is About Networks
  • 48.
    Open Source and Security OpenDesign and Inclusion Open Choices, For Us All
  • 49.
    Promoting Positive Change Perhapsthe Perplexing Part: Legacy Processes Future Depends on Purposeful Transformations
  • 50.
    Quite Simply: Tech Changes HowWe Organize Quite the Question: How Will We?
  • 51.
    R is RaisingQuestions: Regarding the Future of Security? Rational Online Discussions? Representative Democracy?
  • 52.
    S is Scaleof Change Since It Is Not Linear It’s Exponential Search By Keywords One Day Will No Longer Suffice
  • 53.
    T is Tryingto Tell What is Important In the Data Deluge Techniques, Tools, and Tactics Transform How We Will Work
  • 54.
    Ultimately it’s AboutUses Use By Humans Trusting Humans, and Use By Machines Trusting Machines
  • 55.
  • 56.
    With the ComingFuture We’re Going Where We’ve Never Been We Will Need New Ways To Adapt
  • 57.
  • 58.
    Y is YouMatter More Than Ever You Can Help Transform Our #PublicService and You Can Be Positive #ChangeAgents
  • 59.
    Zeros and Ones It’sMuch More Than That Zooming Towards The Future While Remaining True to A Plurality of People
  • 60.
    Needed Now MoreThan Ever: Positive #ChangeAgents for Our Exponential Times be bold, brave, and benevolent changeagents@peoplecentered.net