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Charlie Fink (Contributing Editor): What's Ahead for AR and VR in 2017/2018
- 1. State of Consumer VR & AR and Predictions for 2018 & 2028 Charlie Fink Contributor, Forbes.com Contributing Editor, VR Voice @charliefink Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017
- 2. About Me • Contributor, Forbes; Editor, VR Voice • Entrepreneur & Producer • President, AG Interactive 00-04 • SVP, America Online 95-99 • EVP, COO, Virtual World Entertainment 92-95 • VP, Disney 85-92
- 3. • AR and VR Represent a Major Paradigm Shift in Computing • Technology succeeds when it makes what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster • Change happens very, very slowly, and then all at once • The killer app is other people Things I Know Are True
- 4. • Microsoft – Hololens, Microsoft VR • Apple - iGlass • Facebook – Rift, Oculus Store for Gear • Google – Daydream, Magic Leap • Samsung – GearVR • Sony Playstation VR – Huge Installed Base It’s All About The Guys At The Top of Pyramid
- 5. Wild Cards • Magic Leap • Disruptive tech • Apple AR • Wearable (Probably) • Microsoft Hololens • Windows VR • OEM • The dark horse(s) • Meta, ODG, Kopin, Epson Movio, Lenovo, Qualcomm
- 7. Early Markets for Consumer Tech Are Driven by Killer Apps • Personal Computer • Online Services (email) • Shopping • Social Media • Smart Phones • Messaging • Photography • Maps • Music/Media
- 9. How People Are Exposed to VR • Mobile • Cardboard • GearVR • Work • VRcades • Room Scale • Free Roam • Movies/Pop Culture • The Matrix • Ready Player One
- 10. Enterprise Goes First • Military • Design & Construction • Industrial Maintenance • Remote Experts • Medical • Monitor Consolidation • Heads Up Display • Tele surgery • Sales & Marketing
- 11. VR/AR Consumer Products • 360 Video • Pro • Consumer • VR • Mobile • Fully Immersive • AR/MR • 3D Mobile Apps • Wearable
- 12. 360 Video – The Tip of the Spear • Pro • News • Entertainment • Consumer • Travel • Sports
- 13. AR • Mobile (3D enhanced screens) • Pokemon Go • Filters (Snapchat, FB, Lumyer) • Snapdragon/Tango • Wearable Computing • Microsoft Hololens • ODG (wearable android phone) • Apple i-Glass (?)
- 14. Home VR Systems • Samsung GearVR – 5 Million • Google Daydream - • HTC Vive (Room Scale) – 500,000 • Oculus Rift – 250,000 • Playstation VR – 400,000
- 15. Path to Success for Home VR • Awareness • Most people don’t know about VR • Cost, Ease of Use • Plug and Play Products • Prices still high • Compelling Non-Game content • Social/Telepresence • Improvements in Optics, Ergonomics • Outward facing cameras enable MR • Affordable haptics (touch)
- 16. Case Study: HTC, Playing the Long Game • Address the Exposure Problem • Vrcades, Franchise Titles • Nurture Developers and Relationships • Viveport • Help Develop technology ecosystem via Venture Investments • Tools, Haptics, Social, Education, Sports, Entertainment, Games, etc. • Improve Content Quality & Distribution • The Netflix of VR
- 17. Location Based Entertainment (LBE) • New Vrcades • IMAX VR • Viveport • Tick Tock Unlock • Free Roam VR • The Void • Zero Latency • Dreamscape • VR LBEs in the 90s • The mundane reality of retail
- 18. Predictions for June, 2018 • Neither VR nor AR will hit an inflection point • 360 will become more commonplace • Snapdragon will start to have an impact on AR and mobile VR • Apple Ships iGlass version 1.0 for iPhone 10 • VR Comes to a Mall Near You • More & much improved content for home VR systems • Inter-operability and standards developed • Magic Leap Comes Out, Ships Developer Version in 2018
- 19. Predictions for June, 2028 • Wearable computing commonplace • All laptops and cell phones VR/AR Ready • The Killer App will be telepresence (social) • Second most popular VR app: Westword (casual game) • Automated Trucks, Cars, commonplace • AI, IoT, Automation will cause mass unemployment • Medicare for all will pass the Congress • We will need a much, much bigger room
- 20. THANK YOU! @charliefink Join the conversation @ARealityEvent & #AWE2017
Editor's Notes
- After starting at Disney in story for animation and live action, Beauty, Aladdin, Lion King, based on “Bambi in Africa”, early on the web Ran Early Public VR company partly owned by Disney, sold to Microsoft Early AOL, in charge of original content Start Ups, 1 Really Good Exit Producer, Baghdaddy musical comedy currently running at St. Luke’s in NYC Started writing on advice of Gary Vaynerchuk, because I had an idea for a book. Attracted to what I know, social media, entertainment, and what I’m curious about: the future, and the future is VR and AR. Medium, Top Writer on VR & AR, published by VR Pop, Haptical, Cinemaic VR, Huffington post contributor I get to see the future first.
- 200 Billion Dollar Market by 2020 Digi Capital People Network effect
- Tim Merel, Digi Capital Please note, HTC is not on this list
- Signs it is still very, very early: It is so early we don’t even have commonly accepted words to describe things. The players who went first lost billions (I’m looking at you facebook) A small company can still disrupt the industry (and be acquired by one of the guys at the top) ODG on sale in China
- Very, very slowly, then all at once
- Where there is an obvious killer app (value), and the price is right, there is a very, very sharp and steep inflection point.
- It takes an elaborate ecosystem to make a market. The point of this slide is that the ecosystem is exploding. Rush of AR app developers similar to what we saw in web site development in the 90s and for smartpones at the end of the last decade.
- Industry’s biggest problem right now is exposure. 9 out of 10 people don’t know what VR and even fewer know about AR, though this is going to be a 100 BN dollar business plus market in three years.
- Hololens, Meta, ODG, Kopin, Moverio (epson) Many people will be exposed at work, which is what happened with the PC
- How do you know it’s early? There’s still not language to describe things Is 360 really VR? An empathy machine?
- “The empathy machine” wins award for most of the hyped phrase of the hype cycle Is this really VR? Doesn’t require a head set. How about watching Star Wars? Pro Nokia Camera Vuze, Giroptic, Kodak
- The form factor of smart phones is all wrong: this will fix that Great way to consume content (improving something people are already doing) Light: Pokemon Go HMD: Wearable computer AR advantatges
- Most of those Gears and cardboards are in shelves or drawers somewhere. They’re a novelty. They’re cheap. But more better content coming online in 2017 Still for geeks and hobbyists Too expensive, too complicated, prices moving in the wrong direction Ergonomics, quality of tech, optics, too low
- Bad form factors on rift and vive. Teathered. Room scale. Pioneers blaze a trail, and then end up with arrows in the back. You wanna be a settler. The blackberry was the first smart phone. They had 100% of the market. Pioneer. Dead Friendster, MySpace, pioneers, dead. Settlers: Facebook, Twitter, and Snapchat. Apple is a settler. The audience is in mobile, but the money is in high end. For now. Outward facing cameras, MR, 3D
- Internet café model Help developers make money Patience, patience, patience Address the Exposure Problem Get Baked into Pop Culture Vrcades Movie Franchises (Ready Play One) Nurture Developers and Relationships Invest in producers of content Promote non-gaming apps Support enterprise use Develop technology ecosystem ViveX Ventures Improve Content Quality & Distribution Viveport.com
- There are all brand new, and have questionable long term viability. The cost of hardware is still high for consumers, but not for retail. But for retail, you need much, much more than product and margin. Free Roam two more: Nomadic VR and Nolan Bushnell’s ModalVR Why LBEs like Virtuality, Lazer Tag, Fightertown and Virtual World failed in the90s: Cost of hardware and software, Pace of software updates, Competition from rapidly developing home systems, Pace of retail real estate development and other Operational Challenges Things are different today in important ways: low cost hardware (Vive 3K/station), the content is much better, franchise titles (Star Wars, Jack Reacher) free roam never in the home, but all the other challenges remain Mundane Retail Reality: Real estate, Operations/Labor, Updated Software, Marketing (critical mass for retail), Through put (under utilization), Group sales (and leagues, clubs, etc), Repeatability Internet cafes were simple, Vrcades are not
- A mix of educated and wild guesses AR will lead. VR will follow. You could almost say AR is the path to VR. Digital domain announcement
- More Bandwidth, 4K Optics, Untethered, Home (not room) scale, Haptic Gloves Along the way, a lot of popular entertainment, and substantial works of art, will be made using VR and AR People will finally stop calling 360 video VR