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Cedar Portfolio Information Packet September 2019
1.
1© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. cedarportfolio.com September 2019 Research Services to help grow capital and derive yield through real wealth investments and trading opportunities. Target 10% - 12% annually in USD terms, with outperformance relative to industry benchmark indices at lower risk, and through businesses with strong corporate social responsibility (CSR) programs that address environment, social and governance (ESG) factors towards socially responsible investing (SRI).
2.
2© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer • This information and material contained in this presentation is of a general nature and is intended for educational purposes only. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Furthermore, this presentation does not endorse or recommend any tax, legal, or investment related strategy, trading related strategy or model portfolio. The future performance of an investment, trade, strategy or model portfolio cannot be deduced from past performance. • As with any investment , trade, strategy or mode portfolio, the outcome depends upon many factors including: investment or trading objectives, income, net worth, tax bracket, risk tolerance, as well as economic and market factors. Asset allocation does not assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of investment or trading loss. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that investments, trades, strategies or mode portfolios promoted will be successful. • All information contained in this presentation has been derived from sources that are deemed by us to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. • Yra Harris is serving as a Research Strategist role and not performing as a Portfolio Manager role. Cedargold Pte. Ltd. info@cedarportfolio.com https://cedarportfolio.com
3.
3© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Current Challenges in Investing and Trading How do you get real yield in an environment of essentially 0% interest rates or negative real interest rates (nominal interest rates minus inflation)? How do you preserve purchasing power when central banks around the world are intentionally weakening their currencies? How do you preserve purchasing power in a rising inflation environment? How do you invest in an environment characterized by ongoing central bank and government interventions and ring-fencing regulations? How do you mitigate potential adverse risks such as defaults, capital controls, protectionism, trade wars, bank account bail-ins, nationalizations, climate change and regulatory capture?
4.
4© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Unique Powerful Value Investing Approach to address the Challenges in Investing and Trading 14 Smart Beta Factors + Analysis, Policy Changes/Trends ASE Principles (Applicable to Investing and Trading) Austrian School of Economics (ASE) 14 Smart Beta Factors: 7 Quantitative Factors + 7 Qualitative Factors The approach is based upon using the principles of the Austrian School of Economics (ASE) towards investing and trading. The ASE is a school of thought initially developed from some economists in Vienna Austria back in the 1870s. The ASE emphasizes savings and investment, with minimal debt and leverage, and maintains that policy changes which allow markets to operate freely result in economic growth and wealth creation, whereas interventionist policies are not friendly to the markets and result in economic stagnation and wealth destruction. Profit opportunities exist when these changes are anticipated and interpreted properly, and when identifying cash-flowing businesses characterized by innovation, longevity and growth in value.
5.
5© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. ASE Principles -> 7 Quantitative Smart Beta Factors 5© The Cedar Portfolio All Rights Reserved. 1 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon cash-flowing businesses 2 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon limited debt and leverage 3 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon high earnings per share 4 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon payout distribution 5 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon enduring operations 6 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon owner-operators 7 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon stable or decreasing float Each Factor with studies indicating positive correlation to equity outperformance 7 Positive Correlated Factors Taken Together Sequentially in Series – Powerful!
6.
6© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. ASE Principles -> 7 Qualitative Smart Beta Factors 6© The Cedar Portfolio All Rights Reserved. 1 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon corporate social responsibility 2 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon alignment to economic trends 3 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon alignment to millennial trends 4 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon uniqueness and scarcity 5 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon innovation 6 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon risk mitigation 7 ASE Principle - Value is placed upon holding value/purchasing power Qualitative Factors taken into account
7.
7© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Investing Management Process – 7 Quantitative + 7 Qualitative Smart Beta Factors Universe of Potential Equities in the Portfolio Assessment of 7 Quantitative Factors Assessment of 7 Qualitative Factors Pool of Suitable Equities in the Portfolio Global Equities Pool (GEP) Ongoing Assessment for Suitability in the Portfolio InvestmentManagementCommittee(IMC)l
8.
8© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Trading Management Process – Analysis, Policy Changes/Trends Universe of Multi-Assets Fundamental and Technical Analysis, Policy Changes/Trends Trading Suggestions by Research Strategist Veteran Floor Trader Yra Harris Ongoing Assessment for Suitability in the Portfolio InvestmentManagementCommittee(IMC)
9.
9© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Risk Management Process RiskManagementCommittee(RMC) • Monitoring and Assessing Market, Credit and Operational Risks to the Businesses in the Portfolio • Monitoring and Assessing Portfolio Risk Metrics • Monitoring and Assessing Economic Trends for Risks to the Portfolio • Monitoring and Assessing Portfolio Compliance to Regulations and Standards • Defining, Monitoring and Assessing Policies and Procedures • Specifying and Implementing Actions to Address Portfolio Risks
10.
10© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. The Cedar Portfolio – Research Services 3 Parts Investments - maintained pool of equities identified by the 14 Smart Beta Factors: Global Equities Pool (GEP) Trading Opportunities suggested by Yra Harris: Multi-Asset* Trading Opportunities (YHTO) Suggested “Cash Holdings” – Physical Precious Metals, Gold or Silver- backed Crypto- currencies Regulated in the Financial System © The Cedar Portfolio All Rights Reserved. “Cash-Holdings” = how best to hold “cash” when between investments and trades
11.
11© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. All 3 Parts of the Portfolio available to subscribers What You Get: Global Equities Pool (GEP) Yra Harris Multi-Asset Trading Opportunities (YHTO) Specific “Cash Holdings” Suggestions Access to our secure portal for information on specific suggested investments and trades Notifications via email and texting for investment and trade suggestions – for entering and exiting Supporting information on exchanges, symbols and securities specifications + +
12.
12© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Backtesting Results from 2005 on Global Equities portfolio - Outperformance relative to MSCI World Index M E T R I C P O R T F O L I O M S C I W O R L D I N D E X Start Balance $10,000 $10,000 End Balance $79,582 $16,824 End Balance (inflation adjusted) $59,144 $12,502 CAGR 15.48% 3.67% CAGR (inflation adjusted) 13.12% 1.56% Annualized Volatility 13.60% 14.90% Beta 0.84 1.00 Max. Drawdown -42.24% -55.37% Sharpe Ratio 1.04 0.23 Sortino Ratio 1.63 0.32 $ = USD
13.
13© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Backtesting Results from 2016 on Brazil Equities portfolio - Outperformance relative to MSCI Brazil Index M E T R I C P O R T F O L I O M S C I B R A Z I L I N D E X Start Balance $10,000 $10,000 End Balance $42,823 $23,704 End Balance (inflation adjusted) $39,542 $21,888 CAGR 51.52% 27.97% CAGR (inflation adjusted) 48.11% 25.08% Annualized Volatility 37.28% 33.64% Beta 1.07 1.00 Max. Drawdown -28.88% -31.44% Sharpe Ratio 1.27 0.86 Sortino Ratio 3.01 1.73 $ = USD
14.
14© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. M E T R I C P O R T F O L I O M S C I A S I A E X J A P A N Start Balance $10,000 $10,000 End Balance $171,482 $20,000 End Balance (inflation adjusted) $127,457 $15,433 CAGR 21.54% 5.14% CAGR (inflation adjusted) 19.07% 3.02% Annualized Volatility 16.56% 20.63% Beta 0.65 1 Max. Drawdown -34.36% -62.83% Sharpe Ratio 1.19 0.29 Sortino Ratio 2.14 0.41 $ = USD Backtesting Results from 2005 on EM Asia portfolio - Outperformance relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan Index
15.
15© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Assessing Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Factors We have a dual focus on businesses with both great financial and socially responsible performance; We see this dual focus as providing mutual synergy: o Increasing profitability grows the stakeholder pie, enhancing socially responsible performance to all stakeholders o Implementing responsible corporate actions and activities with respect to a strong CSR program and ESG Factors has a positive influence on financial performance; We incorporate the assessment of strong CSR programs and ESG factors into our investment analysis and decision-making processes; We seek disclosure relating to CSR by the businesses we have in our model portfolios.
16.
16© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. More on CSR and ESG Factors We emphasize businesses with strong CSR programs that address ESG factors towards sustainability and social development with industry best practices in corporate governance. Here are some of the initiatives, standards and best practice processes that we assess towards alignment and compliance:
17.
17© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Management Team- Trade through the eyes of Yra! • Recognized Trader with 40+ years of track record • Track record of successful trading through technical and fundamental analysis • Member of the Board of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for 6 years • Floor Broker and Floor Trader • Provides regular analysis on the Financial Markets as a guest on Yra Harris - Research Strategist
18.
18© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Management Team – Portfolio, Risk, Policy Expertise • International leader in management, corporate growth, restructuring, investment and financings with experience in over 50 countries • Macro economics and monetary policy specialist • MBA in Finance • On the Board of Directors of several entities Uli Kortsch – Senior Advisor
19.
19© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. Management Team – Portfolio, Risk, Policy Expertise • Founder and CEO of The Cedar Portfolio and Cedargold • Senior management positions with KPMG and Manulife • Series 65, Professional Risk Manager and Derivatives Market Specialist, Wealth Management/Capital Markets • Education/degree from MIT Richard Bonugli – CEO, The Cedar Portfolio
20.
20© The Cedar
Portfolio All Rights Reserved. The Cedar Portfolio – Contact Information 28C Stanley Street Singapore 068737 info@cedarportfolio.com +65.800.852.6124 131 Bloor Street West, Suite 200 Toronto, Ontario Canada M5S1R8 info@cedarportfolio.com +1 (416) 786-5507 300 N LaSalle Dr #1890, Chicago, Illinois USA 60654 info@cedarportfolio.com +1 (416) 786-5507
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