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Job losses
recovered • pg. 6
Profit with
business valuation
pg. 3
Slicing the market
4 important pieces • pg. 4
June 12, 2014 | Volume 2 | Issue 10 First magazine focused on active investment management
Russell Luce
pg. 8
a winning
playbook
An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund before investing. This and other information
can be found in the Fund’s prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-855-650-7453. The prospectus should be read carefully prior to investing.
There is no guarantee that The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund will achieve its investment objectives.
Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd., serves as investment sub-advisor to The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund, distributed by Ceros Financial Services Inc. (member FINRA).
Ceros Financial Services, Inc. and Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd. are not affiliated entities.
Advisors Preferred, LLC is the Fund’s investment adviser. Advisors Preferred, LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ceros Financial Services, Inc.
The principal risks of investing in The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund are Risk of the Sub-advisor’s Investment Strategy. Risks of Aggressive Investment Techniques,
High Portfolio Turnover, Risk of Investing in Derivatives, Risks of Investing in ETFs, Risks of Investing in Other Investment Companies, Leverage Risk, Concentration
Risk Gold Risk, Wholly-owned Corporation Risk, Risk of Non-Diversification and Interest Rate Risk. “Gold Risk” includes volatility, price fluctuations over short periods,
risks associated with global monetary,economic,social and political conditions and developments,currency devaluation and revaluation and restrictions,and trading and
transactional restrictions.
For more information on the risks of The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund, including a description of each risk, please refer to the prospectus.
The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund (QGLDX) offers your
investors access to gold bullion in a mutual fund format.
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A fresh take on an
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Fund gross estimated annual operating expenses = 1.55%
POLLS
Text only
until you think you are ready to sell
to get a business valuation. A valua-
tion today will make you more prof-
itable tomorrow, and profitability is
the bottom line.”
urprisingly, it was when
we started thinking
seriously about succession planning
and the eventual sale of our business
that we started seeing the most
growth. Why? If you think about it,
it makes sense.
We brought other high-quality
reps into the business and their ef-
forts, combined with what we were
already doing, resulted in increases
to our production. 
But also by knowing what makes
a business attractive to sell and most
valuable, we worked hard on im-
proving those areas with the idea our
business would be worth more when
we do sell. We have become very
focused on technology, for example.
As a result, our business has
become more efficient and more
profitable. You don’t have to wait
Profit with
business valuation
Mark Miehe
Madison, WI
SII Investments, Inc.®
President, Midwest Financial Group, Inc.
S“
Securities and advisory services offered through SII Investments, Inc.®
(SII), member FINRA/SIPC and a Registered
Investment Advisor. SII and Midwest Financial Group, Inc. are separate and unrelated companies.
Last week’s results
VIEWER RESPONSE
What is your biggest business
challenge in relation to
existing clients?
VOTE
-Results in next issue
This week’s poll
Have bond prices
surprised you
this year?
Yes
No
According to the 2013 Global Survey
of Financial Advisors, more than four
in five advisors globally said they seek
investment strategies/products that
help to manage risk (81%), manage
volatility (79%), and produce income
for clients (82%). Read more >
25%
62%
0% 0% 13%
Managingrisk
Managingexpectations
Producingincome
Managingvolatility
Other
June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 3
TIPS & TOOLS
ike many people, I can often be found in
the kitchen preparing meals. I prefer my
food on the hot and spicy side, which typ-
ically means the recipe includes an onion as one of
the ingredients. Unfortunately, I’ve never encoun-
tered a recipe that said to throw the whole onion
into the mix. The recipe always calls for you to slice,
dice, chop, or mince the darn thing first. That’s
where the fun begins, because there are many ways
to prepare an onion, and I’ve been known to try a
completely new way every now and then.
It’s a similar story for investments. The entire in-
vestment universe is immense, consisting of stocks,
bonds, commodities, and myriad alternatives. For
this discussion, we’ll keep things simple and only
talk about stocks. However, with tens of thou-
sands of stocks in the world, it might be easier
to get a handle on the situation if we sliced them
into smaller, more manageable pieces.
DIVIDING THE STOCK UNIVERSE
A common way to accomplish this task is to cat-
egorize each stock by its sector and industry. There
are many stock classification systems in use today,
with the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB)
and the Global Industry Classification System
(GICS) among the most popular. Dow Jones and
FTSE maintain the ICB database, while MSCI and
Standard&Poor’sdevelopedtheGICSmethodology.
AN ACTIVE MANAGER’S VIEW OF A COMPLEX INVESTMENT WORLD
By Ron Rowland
L
the
proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 20144
Text only
Although each uses slightly different terminology,
both classify all stocks into ten major sectors and
further divide them into industries, groups, and
subsectors—four levels in all.
There are many investment products focusing
on the ten major GICS sectors. You’ll find indexes,
mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)
tracking the performance of each and providing
targeted exposure.
Now that we have a way to divide the uni-
verse into more manageable pieces, we still need a
method to help determine where to invest.
RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS
Relative strength analysis is one of the ap-
proaches an active manager may use and an effec-
tive way to gain insight into what is going on—or
what is working—in the market at any given time.
Relative strength is an easy to understand invest-
ment approach. In its simplest form, it compares
the total return of two securities over a predeter-
mined time period and then invests in the stronger
one, while avoiding the other.
However, selecting the time period is a huge
variable. Are active money managers interested in
identifying the securities with the greatest relative
strength over the past week, month, year, or some
other time frame?
Analyzing different intervals will often reveal
that the strongest securities of the past week
have little overlap with the strongest of the past
year. Choosing too short of a period can pro-
duce false starts, whipsaws, and excessive trading.
Meanwhile, too long of a period can miss new op-
portunities and prolong a stay in fading trends.
As the graph illustrates, relative strength is
determined by intermediate-term momentum.
The numbers represent the annualized value of the
current trend. Performing relative strength analysis
on ETFs tracking the ten major sectors plus Real
Estate quickly reveals where the market’s strengths
and weaknesses reside.
Earlier this year, using an intermediate time
frame of about a couple months, Utilities and
Energy were the two strongest sectors. However, the
Utilities sector had been at the top for many weeks
and Energy was climbing. This suggests market
strength was rotating into Energy. Now, Energy re-
mains strong, although Real Estate is even stronger.
The Technology, Materials, and Industrials sec-
tors are all sitting above the halfway point, and are
all showing positive performance trends over the
period being evaluated.
This brings up another point: a relative strength
ranking alone doesn’t tell us if the various catego-
ries are trending upward, downward, or sideways.
Being on top could mean a sector is falling slower
than the lower ranked categories. It is easy to over-
come this limitation by including a neutral invest-
ment, such as a money market fund, in the mix.
Another way is to quantify the relative strength
calculations. The numbers in the graph represent
the annualized value of the current trend. Those
with positive results are trending up, and those
with negative results are trending down. Currently,
all categories are trending up and shaded in green.
The importance of analyzing relative strength
and the trending of sectors—and groups within
sectors—cannot be underestimated. Large in-
stitutional funds will at times move en masse via
“sector rotation,” as they assess major macro trends,
continue on pg. 11
Real Estate 32
30
25
25
25
23
22
21
20
16
13
Energy
Technology
Materials
Industrials
Utilities
Cons Staples
Health Care
Financials
Discretionary
Telecom
China 25
25
23
23
23
22
20
17
17
16
12
Emerging Mkts
USA
Japan
EU
World Equity
EAFE
UK
Canada
Pacific x-Japan
Latin America
Mid Value 26
23
23
23
23
21
20
14
10
6
0
Large Value
Large Blend
Large Growth
Mid Blend
Mega Cap
Mid Growth
Small Value
Small Blend
Small Growth
Micro Cap
High Beta 30
29
28
24
22
21
20
20
19
16
10
Value
Growth
Revenue
Momentum
Low Volatility
Div Growth
Buyback
Current Yield
Spin Off
Small Size
SECTOR ANALYSIS STYLE ANALYSIS
GLOBAL ANALYSIS FACTOR ANALYSIS
Source: investwithanedge.com June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 5
TOPPING THE CHARTS
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
0
-1
1
0 12 24 36 48 60 72
Months from peak
%declinefrompeak
Sep ‘48
Jul ‘53
Apr ‘57
Apr ‘60
Apr ‘70
Jul ‘74
Apr ‘80
Jul ‘81
Jun ‘90
Feb ‘01
Jan ‘08
Recession job losses finally recovered
he headlines of last Friday (6/6)
trumpeted the fact that all of
the jobs lost in the recession and
its aftermath have finally been
recovered. The employment report showed
a monthly gain in May of 217,000 jobs,
just above consensus projections.
With this gain, eight million-plus jobs
have been “created” since the depths of the
recession and a new all-time record of jobs
has been set of 138.4 million—surpassing
the previous jobs’ high set in January
2008. The further good news included
the fact that May represented the fourth
straight month of more than 200,000
new jobs, the first time a streak of that
length has occurred since the late 1990s.
Also, the unemployment rate remained
at 6.3%, the lowest level since September
2008, according to the WSJ.
There is much debate among
economists on whether jobless rates
can be expected to fall to the “normal”
benchmark of a healthy economy,
thought to be in the area of 5.0-5.5%.
T
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Or are we, as some have suggested, in a “new
normal” environment, where continued
jobless rates above 6.0% should be expected?
What is not up for debate is the
extensive length of time it took for the
labor market to recover those lost jobs.
According to Bespoke Investment Group,
this was the longest post-recession jobs
recovery since WWII, at 75 months. Few
would argue that labor markets have totally
healed, with the long-term unemployed
still a major issue and the labor force
participation rate remaining near the
lowest levels since the late 1970s.
MONTHS TO REGAIN PRIOR PEAKS IN EMPLOYMENT: 1945–2014
6 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 2014
Text only
Text only
Russell Luce, principal of Planning Legacies Financial Group,
balances the demands of his successful advisory practice
with his advocacy for special needs children. In both,
Luce maintains a proactive and optimistic outlook.
8 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 2014
Proactive Advisor Magazine: Russell,
how has your personal journey affected
your philosophy around financial
planning and investment management?
Russell Luce: Our family has two special
needs children and has faced some serious med-
ical issues. I am a firm believer in the saying that
10% of life is what happens and 90% is how you
deal with it. This belief carries through to the
way I approach financial matters for my clients
and is one of the reasons I am an advocate for
active investment management. I am not one
for sitting around and letting things happen to
my personal portfolio or those of my clients.
What do you mean?
In today’s investment environment, clients
can no longer afford to stay with a buy-and-
hold approach and stick their heads in the
sand, hoping everything will work out for the
best. It should be about taking charge and not
letting the market dictate returns. With active
management, we should be able to avoid a good
part of the losses in worst-case market years,
perhaps even making money in a severe market
downturn with the proper strategies.
How did you come to that belief about
active management?
The paradigm really shifted for me two to
three years ago when I began investigating dif-
ferent third-party managers and their platforms
and strategies. Inherently, I knew after the 2008
period that there had to be a better way.
I was looking for a way to bring a more
repeatable process into play and had some
eye-opening discussions with managers about
active management. I might as well be from
Missouri, as it took me quite a bit of asking
“show me” questions, but I am well-satisfied
that they were answered.
How do you define active management?
To my mind, it is pretty simple. There are
two ways to manage money: buy-and-hold and
active management. In buy-and-hold, there is
a very infrequent adjustment of the portfolio.
You basically take what the market and your
allocations give you.
Active management is totally different.
Portfolio strategies are looked at daily, weekly,
monthly. Adjustments are made as needed.
Third-party active managers may also employ
analysts, portfolio managers, and traders
to make sure their strategies stay on track.
Portfolio allocations are not done by some
emotional factor, but by specific quantitative
triggers or models.
How do you explain this to clients?
I used to be a pretty decent baseball player,
and I like to use sports analogies. I will ask a
client their favorite sport and more often than
not they will say football. In that case, I ask,
“What is the top of the mountain in football?”
Then, I explain to the client that they are like
the owner of a pro football team and their goal
is to win the Super Bowl.
I say, “You’ve hired me to be the general
manager and that means I have to put the best
team in place in every regard. First of all I need
to pick a world-class coach, who needs to pick
the best assistant coaches, the best players, and
have a winning playbook. Our coach is the
third-party active manager and they select the
best analysts and strategists to formulate the
playbook that strives to meet the goals we have
laid out. So our job as an entire team effort is to
get you, Mr. Client, to that Super Bowl, or, in
your case, having a winning retirement plan.”
Clients start nodding their heads and really
understand that.
continue on pg. 10
a winning
playbook
Russell Luce
By David Wismer
Russell Luce
Memberships:
• Million Dollar Round Table
• National Association of Insurance
and Financial Advisors
• Society of Financial Professionals
• International Association of Registered
Financial Consultants
Married to wife, Linda, and father
of five children
Enjoys golf, reading and saltwater fishing
Devoted volunteer in special
needs community
June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 9
excellent, very visual tools to look at how the over-
all portfolio is doing versus expected outcomes.
What materials do you use to further
explain active management
to clients?
I like to use a presentation that shows how
markets have performed over the years, how
they tend to act. About 60% of the time mar-
kets are in a positive mode, about 20% of the
time going sideways, and about 20% of the
time in a negative or bear market.
Even though most people know that the his-
tory of the market is to tend to move higher, they
are unaware that about 40% of the time it is not
doing so. I explain that this is one of the reasons
to use active management, to be well-positioned
for those times the market might not be going up.
Russell, thank you. Any final thoughts?
Clients tend to spend more time planning
vacations and holidays than how they are going
to be spending the rest of their lives. As a parent
of special needs children, I especially know how
important it is to secure your financial future.
Investing the time and effort to work with a
qualified financial professional is one of the
most important things you can do for yourself
and your family.
continued from pg. 9
Going back to the sports analogy, what
is in your playbook? What types of active
strategies do you tend to use for clients?
It depends, of course, on the client’s overall
objectives, risk profile, and total financial plan. I
tell everyone that there are three enemies facing
their money: time, inflation, and taxes. We
need consistent income and asset growth over
time to overcome those, while retaining capital.
I tend to use an active, multi-strategy ap-
proach across multiple asset classes and sectors
that has strong risk management. I utilize a
blended approach that has the ability to be
actively managed in each strategy component,
to go to cash if need be, and can be leveraged
if the environment calls for it. Allocations may
change on a monthly basis and most of the
strategies are quantitatively driven.
I tell clients we are trying to consistently hit
singles and doubles, not going for the home run.
And progress is measured very specifically against
each client’s personalized objectives, not broad
market indices. Our third-party managers provide
Russell Luce is an investment advisor representative of and offers
securities and advisory services through Foresters Equity Services, Inc.,
a registered investment advisor, member FINRA, SIPC. Planning Legacies
Financial Group is located at 9233 Sproat Avenue, Oak Lawn, IL, 60453.
10 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 2014
Read a fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the fund’s investment objectives,
risks,charges,expensesandotherinformation,whichshouldbeconsideredcarefullybeforeinvesting.Obtainaprospectusandsummary
prospectus(ifavailable)atguggenheiminvestments.com.
There can be no assurance that any investment product will achieve its investment objective(s). There are risks associated with investing, including the entire loss of principal invested. Investing involves market
risk. The investment return and principal amount of any investment product will fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares of the funds are not deposits of, or guaranteed or endorsed by, any financial
institution; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the federal reserve board, or any other agency.
The referenced funds are distributed by Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC. Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC (“Guggenheim”), which
include Security Investors, LLC, (“SI”), the Investment advisor to the referenced funds. Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is affiliated with Guggenheim and SI. x0515 #12524
Discover Investing Flexibility with Guggenheim’s
Rydex Funds
+ 55 Rydex funds that offer exposure to today’s most popular benchmarks
+ Unlimited exchange privileges among equivalent share classes of the
Rydex funds. Certain share classes may impose sales charges on new
purchases or for early redemptions.
Learn more. Call 630.505.3749 or visit guggenheiminvestments.com/Rydex
the implications of Fed policy, and business and
economic cycles in their decision-making.
This was in full force earlier this year, as large
funds rotated out of the sub-groupings of high-
er-beta Internet and Biotech stocks and into less
volatile larger caps across several different sectors.
Active managers, within the parameters of their di-
versified strategies, need to monitor these rotations
on a continual basis.
FURTHER SLICING AND DICING
Much like the onion that can be sliced and
chopped many different ways, so can the market,
and active managers have many different strategies
that do just that. Instead of dividing by sectors,
what if stocks were categorized based on geograph-
ical regions or various fundamental and technical
factors? Once again, there are indexes, mutual
funds, and ETFs that make this possible.
The nine-square Morningstar style box is anoth-
er way to slice the market. It separates stocks into
three sizes—large, medium, and small—and further
divides them into Value, Growth, or Blend buckets.
I like to take it one step further by adding Mega
Cap and Micro Cap categories.
The same relative strength analysis can be uti-
lized against this universe, and doing so reveals the
market is currently favoring Mid Cap Value and
Large Cap Value stocks, while Small Cap Growth
and Micro Cap stocks have been out of favor. Some
active strategies utilize these eleven buckets to im-
plement the most appropriate portfolio allocations.
Also, it is possible to chop up the stock market
based on a single quantitative factor, such as beta,
yield, volatility, size, revenue, momentum, and
many others. There are investment vehicles track-
ing these, too.
Relative strength is just one tool available to
active managers. This tool, combined with the
ability to slice and dice the market along many
different lines, provides the ability to identify
and overweight the strongest areas of the market
and to avoid the weakest. Of course, investors
could always take the passive approach of throw-
ing the whole unsliced onion in and hoping
for the best—definitely not a recipe favored by
active managers.
continued from pg. 5
11June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 11
L NKS WEEK
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. Any opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be
construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. The analysis and information in this edition and on our website is for informational purposes only.
No part of the material presented in this edition or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed
nor any portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program.
Editor
David Wismer
Marketing Coordinator
Elizabeth Whitley
Contributing Writers
Ron Rowland
David Wismer
Graphic Designer
Roger Ackerman
Contributing Photographer
©brettkramer.com
June 12, 2014
Volume 2 | Issue 10
Proactive Advisor Magazine is
dedicated to promoting and educating
on active investment management.
Distribution reaches a wide audience
of financial professionals who advise
clients on investments and portfolio
management. Each issue features
an experienced investment advisor
who offers insights on active money
management, client service, and
investment approaches. Additionally,
Proactive Advisor Magazine offers
an up-close look at a topic with
current relevance to the field of
active management.
Advertising
proactiveadvisormagazine.com/advertising
Reprints
proactiveadvisormagazine.com/reprints
Contact
proactiveadvisormagazine.com/contact
Proactive Advisor Magazine
Copyright 2014 © Dynamic Performance
Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved.
Reproduction of printed form, whole or in
part, without permission is prohibited.
Why aren’t more women in wealth management?
A look at what’s behind the lack of women in the industry and how to
increase their ranks.
Lean retirement faces Generation X
Financial issues continue to plague America’s Generation X,
those born between the mid-1960s and 1980, as they have trouble
keeping up with their parents in building assets.
The bears (and individual investors)
haven’t surrendered yet
A Bloomberg editorial argues that the odds are against a major market top
forming until individual investors ramp up their equity allocations.
7 Threats that can derail a client’s retirement
The American College’s RICP curriculum includes a list of 27 risks that
retirees face—here are seven of the most important.
Best practices in time management and
productivity tips for financial advisors
The results of the latest FPA Time Management and Productivity Study
show only 13% of advisors feel in complete control of their time—
what are some possible solutions?
Bill Gross bulls butt heads with bears
in great bond debate
The gulf between bulls and bears has never widened so quickly
in the $12 trillion market for U.S. government bonds.
Stay connected
12
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Russell Luce – Proactive Advisor Magazine – Volume 2, Issue 10

  • 1. Job losses recovered • pg. 6 Profit with business valuation pg. 3 Slicing the market 4 important pieces • pg. 4 June 12, 2014 | Volume 2 | Issue 10 First magazine focused on active investment management Russell Luce pg. 8 a winning playbook
  • 2. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund before investing. This and other information can be found in the Fund’s prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 1-855-650-7453. The prospectus should be read carefully prior to investing. There is no guarantee that The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund will achieve its investment objectives. Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd., serves as investment sub-advisor to The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund, distributed by Ceros Financial Services Inc. (member FINRA). Ceros Financial Services, Inc. and Flexible Plan Investments, Ltd. are not affiliated entities. Advisors Preferred, LLC is the Fund’s investment adviser. Advisors Preferred, LLC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ceros Financial Services, Inc. The principal risks of investing in The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund are Risk of the Sub-advisor’s Investment Strategy. Risks of Aggressive Investment Techniques, High Portfolio Turnover, Risk of Investing in Derivatives, Risks of Investing in ETFs, Risks of Investing in Other Investment Companies, Leverage Risk, Concentration Risk Gold Risk, Wholly-owned Corporation Risk, Risk of Non-Diversification and Interest Rate Risk. “Gold Risk” includes volatility, price fluctuations over short periods, risks associated with global monetary,economic,social and political conditions and developments,currency devaluation and revaluation and restrictions,and trading and transactional restrictions. For more information on the risks of The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund, including a description of each risk, please refer to the prospectus. The Gold Bullion Strategy Fund (QGLDX) offers your investors access to gold bullion in a mutual fund format. Launched in 2013, the fund is designed to: • Diversify a portfolio with a strategic allocation to gold • Offer a purer play on gold • Provide a more cost-effective way to own gold with Form 1099 reporting To learn more, please download Flexible Plan Investments’ white paper, The Role of Gold in Investment Portfolios at www.goldbullionstrategyfund.com/white-paper A fresh take on an enduring alternative www.goldbullionstrategyfund.com Fund gross estimated annual operating expenses = 1.55%
  • 3. POLLS Text only until you think you are ready to sell to get a business valuation. A valua- tion today will make you more prof- itable tomorrow, and profitability is the bottom line.” urprisingly, it was when we started thinking seriously about succession planning and the eventual sale of our business that we started seeing the most growth. Why? If you think about it, it makes sense. We brought other high-quality reps into the business and their ef- forts, combined with what we were already doing, resulted in increases to our production.  But also by knowing what makes a business attractive to sell and most valuable, we worked hard on im- proving those areas with the idea our business would be worth more when we do sell. We have become very focused on technology, for example. As a result, our business has become more efficient and more profitable. You don’t have to wait Profit with business valuation Mark Miehe Madison, WI SII Investments, Inc.® President, Midwest Financial Group, Inc. S“ Securities and advisory services offered through SII Investments, Inc.® (SII), member FINRA/SIPC and a Registered Investment Advisor. SII and Midwest Financial Group, Inc. are separate and unrelated companies. Last week’s results VIEWER RESPONSE What is your biggest business challenge in relation to existing clients? VOTE -Results in next issue This week’s poll Have bond prices surprised you this year? Yes No According to the 2013 Global Survey of Financial Advisors, more than four in five advisors globally said they seek investment strategies/products that help to manage risk (81%), manage volatility (79%), and produce income for clients (82%). Read more > 25% 62% 0% 0% 13% Managingrisk Managingexpectations Producingincome Managingvolatility Other June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 3 TIPS & TOOLS
  • 4. ike many people, I can often be found in the kitchen preparing meals. I prefer my food on the hot and spicy side, which typ- ically means the recipe includes an onion as one of the ingredients. Unfortunately, I’ve never encoun- tered a recipe that said to throw the whole onion into the mix. The recipe always calls for you to slice, dice, chop, or mince the darn thing first. That’s where the fun begins, because there are many ways to prepare an onion, and I’ve been known to try a completely new way every now and then. It’s a similar story for investments. The entire in- vestment universe is immense, consisting of stocks, bonds, commodities, and myriad alternatives. For this discussion, we’ll keep things simple and only talk about stocks. However, with tens of thou- sands of stocks in the world, it might be easier to get a handle on the situation if we sliced them into smaller, more manageable pieces. DIVIDING THE STOCK UNIVERSE A common way to accomplish this task is to cat- egorize each stock by its sector and industry. There are many stock classification systems in use today, with the Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) and the Global Industry Classification System (GICS) among the most popular. Dow Jones and FTSE maintain the ICB database, while MSCI and Standard&Poor’sdevelopedtheGICSmethodology. AN ACTIVE MANAGER’S VIEW OF A COMPLEX INVESTMENT WORLD By Ron Rowland L the proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 20144 Text only
  • 5. Although each uses slightly different terminology, both classify all stocks into ten major sectors and further divide them into industries, groups, and subsectors—four levels in all. There are many investment products focusing on the ten major GICS sectors. You’ll find indexes, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the performance of each and providing targeted exposure. Now that we have a way to divide the uni- verse into more manageable pieces, we still need a method to help determine where to invest. RELATIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS Relative strength analysis is one of the ap- proaches an active manager may use and an effec- tive way to gain insight into what is going on—or what is working—in the market at any given time. Relative strength is an easy to understand invest- ment approach. In its simplest form, it compares the total return of two securities over a predeter- mined time period and then invests in the stronger one, while avoiding the other. However, selecting the time period is a huge variable. Are active money managers interested in identifying the securities with the greatest relative strength over the past week, month, year, or some other time frame? Analyzing different intervals will often reveal that the strongest securities of the past week have little overlap with the strongest of the past year. Choosing too short of a period can pro- duce false starts, whipsaws, and excessive trading. Meanwhile, too long of a period can miss new op- portunities and prolong a stay in fading trends. As the graph illustrates, relative strength is determined by intermediate-term momentum. The numbers represent the annualized value of the current trend. Performing relative strength analysis on ETFs tracking the ten major sectors plus Real Estate quickly reveals where the market’s strengths and weaknesses reside. Earlier this year, using an intermediate time frame of about a couple months, Utilities and Energy were the two strongest sectors. However, the Utilities sector had been at the top for many weeks and Energy was climbing. This suggests market strength was rotating into Energy. Now, Energy re- mains strong, although Real Estate is even stronger. The Technology, Materials, and Industrials sec- tors are all sitting above the halfway point, and are all showing positive performance trends over the period being evaluated. This brings up another point: a relative strength ranking alone doesn’t tell us if the various catego- ries are trending upward, downward, or sideways. Being on top could mean a sector is falling slower than the lower ranked categories. It is easy to over- come this limitation by including a neutral invest- ment, such as a money market fund, in the mix. Another way is to quantify the relative strength calculations. The numbers in the graph represent the annualized value of the current trend. Those with positive results are trending up, and those with negative results are trending down. Currently, all categories are trending up and shaded in green. The importance of analyzing relative strength and the trending of sectors—and groups within sectors—cannot be underestimated. Large in- stitutional funds will at times move en masse via “sector rotation,” as they assess major macro trends, continue on pg. 11 Real Estate 32 30 25 25 25 23 22 21 20 16 13 Energy Technology Materials Industrials Utilities Cons Staples Health Care Financials Discretionary Telecom China 25 25 23 23 23 22 20 17 17 16 12 Emerging Mkts USA Japan EU World Equity EAFE UK Canada Pacific x-Japan Latin America Mid Value 26 23 23 23 23 21 20 14 10 6 0 Large Value Large Blend Large Growth Mid Blend Mega Cap Mid Growth Small Value Small Blend Small Growth Micro Cap High Beta 30 29 28 24 22 21 20 20 19 16 10 Value Growth Revenue Momentum Low Volatility Div Growth Buyback Current Yield Spin Off Small Size SECTOR ANALYSIS STYLE ANALYSIS GLOBAL ANALYSIS FACTOR ANALYSIS Source: investwithanedge.com June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 5
  • 6. TOPPING THE CHARTS -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 1 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 Months from peak %declinefrompeak Sep ‘48 Jul ‘53 Apr ‘57 Apr ‘60 Apr ‘70 Jul ‘74 Apr ‘80 Jul ‘81 Jun ‘90 Feb ‘01 Jan ‘08 Recession job losses finally recovered he headlines of last Friday (6/6) trumpeted the fact that all of the jobs lost in the recession and its aftermath have finally been recovered. The employment report showed a monthly gain in May of 217,000 jobs, just above consensus projections. With this gain, eight million-plus jobs have been “created” since the depths of the recession and a new all-time record of jobs has been set of 138.4 million—surpassing the previous jobs’ high set in January 2008. The further good news included the fact that May represented the fourth straight month of more than 200,000 new jobs, the first time a streak of that length has occurred since the late 1990s. Also, the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%, the lowest level since September 2008, according to the WSJ. There is much debate among economists on whether jobless rates can be expected to fall to the “normal” benchmark of a healthy economy, thought to be in the area of 5.0-5.5%. T Source: Bespoke Investment Group Or are we, as some have suggested, in a “new normal” environment, where continued jobless rates above 6.0% should be expected? What is not up for debate is the extensive length of time it took for the labor market to recover those lost jobs. According to Bespoke Investment Group, this was the longest post-recession jobs recovery since WWII, at 75 months. Few would argue that labor markets have totally healed, with the long-term unemployed still a major issue and the labor force participation rate remaining near the lowest levels since the late 1970s. MONTHS TO REGAIN PRIOR PEAKS IN EMPLOYMENT: 1945–2014 6 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 2014 Text only
  • 7.
  • 8. Text only Russell Luce, principal of Planning Legacies Financial Group, balances the demands of his successful advisory practice with his advocacy for special needs children. In both, Luce maintains a proactive and optimistic outlook. 8 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 2014
  • 9. Proactive Advisor Magazine: Russell, how has your personal journey affected your philosophy around financial planning and investment management? Russell Luce: Our family has two special needs children and has faced some serious med- ical issues. I am a firm believer in the saying that 10% of life is what happens and 90% is how you deal with it. This belief carries through to the way I approach financial matters for my clients and is one of the reasons I am an advocate for active investment management. I am not one for sitting around and letting things happen to my personal portfolio or those of my clients. What do you mean? In today’s investment environment, clients can no longer afford to stay with a buy-and- hold approach and stick their heads in the sand, hoping everything will work out for the best. It should be about taking charge and not letting the market dictate returns. With active management, we should be able to avoid a good part of the losses in worst-case market years, perhaps even making money in a severe market downturn with the proper strategies. How did you come to that belief about active management? The paradigm really shifted for me two to three years ago when I began investigating dif- ferent third-party managers and their platforms and strategies. Inherently, I knew after the 2008 period that there had to be a better way. I was looking for a way to bring a more repeatable process into play and had some eye-opening discussions with managers about active management. I might as well be from Missouri, as it took me quite a bit of asking “show me” questions, but I am well-satisfied that they were answered. How do you define active management? To my mind, it is pretty simple. There are two ways to manage money: buy-and-hold and active management. In buy-and-hold, there is a very infrequent adjustment of the portfolio. You basically take what the market and your allocations give you. Active management is totally different. Portfolio strategies are looked at daily, weekly, monthly. Adjustments are made as needed. Third-party active managers may also employ analysts, portfolio managers, and traders to make sure their strategies stay on track. Portfolio allocations are not done by some emotional factor, but by specific quantitative triggers or models. How do you explain this to clients? I used to be a pretty decent baseball player, and I like to use sports analogies. I will ask a client their favorite sport and more often than not they will say football. In that case, I ask, “What is the top of the mountain in football?” Then, I explain to the client that they are like the owner of a pro football team and their goal is to win the Super Bowl. I say, “You’ve hired me to be the general manager and that means I have to put the best team in place in every regard. First of all I need to pick a world-class coach, who needs to pick the best assistant coaches, the best players, and have a winning playbook. Our coach is the third-party active manager and they select the best analysts and strategists to formulate the playbook that strives to meet the goals we have laid out. So our job as an entire team effort is to get you, Mr. Client, to that Super Bowl, or, in your case, having a winning retirement plan.” Clients start nodding their heads and really understand that. continue on pg. 10 a winning playbook Russell Luce By David Wismer Russell Luce Memberships: • Million Dollar Round Table • National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors • Society of Financial Professionals • International Association of Registered Financial Consultants Married to wife, Linda, and father of five children Enjoys golf, reading and saltwater fishing Devoted volunteer in special needs community June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 9
  • 10. excellent, very visual tools to look at how the over- all portfolio is doing versus expected outcomes. What materials do you use to further explain active management to clients? I like to use a presentation that shows how markets have performed over the years, how they tend to act. About 60% of the time mar- kets are in a positive mode, about 20% of the time going sideways, and about 20% of the time in a negative or bear market. Even though most people know that the his- tory of the market is to tend to move higher, they are unaware that about 40% of the time it is not doing so. I explain that this is one of the reasons to use active management, to be well-positioned for those times the market might not be going up. Russell, thank you. Any final thoughts? Clients tend to spend more time planning vacations and holidays than how they are going to be spending the rest of their lives. As a parent of special needs children, I especially know how important it is to secure your financial future. Investing the time and effort to work with a qualified financial professional is one of the most important things you can do for yourself and your family. continued from pg. 9 Going back to the sports analogy, what is in your playbook? What types of active strategies do you tend to use for clients? It depends, of course, on the client’s overall objectives, risk profile, and total financial plan. I tell everyone that there are three enemies facing their money: time, inflation, and taxes. We need consistent income and asset growth over time to overcome those, while retaining capital. I tend to use an active, multi-strategy ap- proach across multiple asset classes and sectors that has strong risk management. I utilize a blended approach that has the ability to be actively managed in each strategy component, to go to cash if need be, and can be leveraged if the environment calls for it. Allocations may change on a monthly basis and most of the strategies are quantitatively driven. I tell clients we are trying to consistently hit singles and doubles, not going for the home run. And progress is measured very specifically against each client’s personalized objectives, not broad market indices. Our third-party managers provide Russell Luce is an investment advisor representative of and offers securities and advisory services through Foresters Equity Services, Inc., a registered investment advisor, member FINRA, SIPC. Planning Legacies Financial Group is located at 9233 Sproat Avenue, Oak Lawn, IL, 60453. 10 proactiveadvisormagazine.com | June 12, 2014
  • 11. Read a fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus (if available) carefully before investing. It contains the fund’s investment objectives, risks,charges,expensesandotherinformation,whichshouldbeconsideredcarefullybeforeinvesting.Obtainaprospectusandsummary prospectus(ifavailable)atguggenheiminvestments.com. There can be no assurance that any investment product will achieve its investment objective(s). There are risks associated with investing, including the entire loss of principal invested. Investing involves market risk. The investment return and principal amount of any investment product will fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares of the funds are not deposits of, or guaranteed or endorsed by, any financial institution; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the federal reserve board, or any other agency. The referenced funds are distributed by Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC. Guggenheim Investments represents the investment management businesses of Guggenheim Partners, LLC (“Guggenheim”), which include Security Investors, LLC, (“SI”), the Investment advisor to the referenced funds. Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC is affiliated with Guggenheim and SI. x0515 #12524 Discover Investing Flexibility with Guggenheim’s Rydex Funds + 55 Rydex funds that offer exposure to today’s most popular benchmarks + Unlimited exchange privileges among equivalent share classes of the Rydex funds. Certain share classes may impose sales charges on new purchases or for early redemptions. Learn more. Call 630.505.3749 or visit guggenheiminvestments.com/Rydex the implications of Fed policy, and business and economic cycles in their decision-making. This was in full force earlier this year, as large funds rotated out of the sub-groupings of high- er-beta Internet and Biotech stocks and into less volatile larger caps across several different sectors. Active managers, within the parameters of their di- versified strategies, need to monitor these rotations on a continual basis. FURTHER SLICING AND DICING Much like the onion that can be sliced and chopped many different ways, so can the market, and active managers have many different strategies that do just that. Instead of dividing by sectors, what if stocks were categorized based on geograph- ical regions or various fundamental and technical factors? Once again, there are indexes, mutual funds, and ETFs that make this possible. The nine-square Morningstar style box is anoth- er way to slice the market. It separates stocks into three sizes—large, medium, and small—and further divides them into Value, Growth, or Blend buckets. I like to take it one step further by adding Mega Cap and Micro Cap categories. The same relative strength analysis can be uti- lized against this universe, and doing so reveals the market is currently favoring Mid Cap Value and Large Cap Value stocks, while Small Cap Growth and Micro Cap stocks have been out of favor. Some active strategies utilize these eleven buckets to im- plement the most appropriate portfolio allocations. Also, it is possible to chop up the stock market based on a single quantitative factor, such as beta, yield, volatility, size, revenue, momentum, and many others. There are investment vehicles track- ing these, too. Relative strength is just one tool available to active managers. This tool, combined with the ability to slice and dice the market along many different lines, provides the ability to identify and overweight the strongest areas of the market and to avoid the weakest. Of course, investors could always take the passive approach of throw- ing the whole unsliced onion in and hoping for the best—definitely not a recipe favored by active managers. continued from pg. 5 11June 12, 2014 | proactiveadvisormagazine.com 11
  • 12. L NKS WEEK The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of the author and may not actually come to pass. Any opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. The analysis and information in this edition and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this edition or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. Editor David Wismer Marketing Coordinator Elizabeth Whitley Contributing Writers Ron Rowland David Wismer Graphic Designer Roger Ackerman Contributing Photographer ©brettkramer.com June 12, 2014 Volume 2 | Issue 10 Proactive Advisor Magazine is dedicated to promoting and educating on active investment management. Distribution reaches a wide audience of financial professionals who advise clients on investments and portfolio management. Each issue features an experienced investment advisor who offers insights on active money management, client service, and investment approaches. Additionally, Proactive Advisor Magazine offers an up-close look at a topic with current relevance to the field of active management. Advertising proactiveadvisormagazine.com/advertising Reprints proactiveadvisormagazine.com/reprints Contact proactiveadvisormagazine.com/contact Proactive Advisor Magazine Copyright 2014 © Dynamic Performance Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of printed form, whole or in part, without permission is prohibited. Why aren’t more women in wealth management? A look at what’s behind the lack of women in the industry and how to increase their ranks. Lean retirement faces Generation X Financial issues continue to plague America’s Generation X, those born between the mid-1960s and 1980, as they have trouble keeping up with their parents in building assets. The bears (and individual investors) haven’t surrendered yet A Bloomberg editorial argues that the odds are against a major market top forming until individual investors ramp up their equity allocations. 7 Threats that can derail a client’s retirement The American College’s RICP curriculum includes a list of 27 risks that retirees face—here are seven of the most important. Best practices in time management and productivity tips for financial advisors The results of the latest FPA Time Management and Productivity Study show only 13% of advisors feel in complete control of their time— what are some possible solutions? Bill Gross bulls butt heads with bears in great bond debate The gulf between bulls and bears has never widened so quickly in the $12 trillion market for U.S. government bonds. Stay connected 12 Text only