Capital Economics is a leading independent provider of macroeconomic research with over 50 economists located globally. It offers subscription-based research services covering various economies, sectors, and financial markets. Some of its distinctive strengths include challenging conventional wisdom in its forecasts, using proprietary indicators, and having a strong track record of predicting major economic shifts correctly such as the 2008 US recession and downturns in emerging markets. It aims to provide timely, concise, and user-friendly analysis with clear conclusions.
Lattice Energy LLC-Larsen Memo re Stock Indexes vs Gold Price Ratios-August 1...Lewis Larsen
Memo prompted by anomalies in price of Gold versus price of stocks (DJIA/Gold ratio) that occurred in August 2011. Quoting: “Gold is not presently expensive because of a soon-to-be rapid acceleration in overall rate of inflation. In my view, that scenario is very unlikely, especially given the reduction in government fiscal stimulus now starting in the U.S. and Europe. Recent behavior of U.S. Treasury securities supports that notion --- yields on the long-end of the debt markets (which Fed has very little direct control over) have actually gone down significantly since the latest market break began. As of mid-session this morning, the 30-year US Treasury bond was being priced to yield 3.53%; if a pending inflationary surge were the underlying factor spooking today’s equity markets, long bond yields would be going up not down. Three-month T-bill rates are within a rounding-error of zero %; no hints of inflationary pressures there either. The fact is that the U.S. economy is still quite weak and there is little demand for short-term credit --- U.S. consumers aren't in good enough financial shape to help run-up hard asset prices and create inflationary pressures.”
Inflation (price change) is important for REALTORS® because changes in prices in the economy can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve Bank.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Lattice Energy LLC-Larsen Memo re Stock Indexes vs Gold Price Ratios-August 1...Lewis Larsen
Memo prompted by anomalies in price of Gold versus price of stocks (DJIA/Gold ratio) that occurred in August 2011. Quoting: “Gold is not presently expensive because of a soon-to-be rapid acceleration in overall rate of inflation. In my view, that scenario is very unlikely, especially given the reduction in government fiscal stimulus now starting in the U.S. and Europe. Recent behavior of U.S. Treasury securities supports that notion --- yields on the long-end of the debt markets (which Fed has very little direct control over) have actually gone down significantly since the latest market break began. As of mid-session this morning, the 30-year US Treasury bond was being priced to yield 3.53%; if a pending inflationary surge were the underlying factor spooking today’s equity markets, long bond yields would be going up not down. Three-month T-bill rates are within a rounding-error of zero %; no hints of inflationary pressures there either. The fact is that the U.S. economy is still quite weak and there is little demand for short-term credit --- U.S. consumers aren't in good enough financial shape to help run-up hard asset prices and create inflationary pressures.”
Inflation (price change) is important for REALTORS® because changes in prices in the economy can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Reserve Bank.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Fasanara Capital Investment Outlook | February 1st 2015
1. Seismic Activity On The Rise
2. No Volatility No Gain
3. The Role Of Optionality
4. Crystal Ball
5. Deflation Is A Multi-Year Process
6. Three Big Trades for 2015
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
It didn’t go the way the pundits predicted. As the second quarter came to a close, people in the UK voted to exit (Brexit) the European Union by a narrow margin. Despite the narrow differences in the polls, global markets and the mainstream press indicated that the opposite outcome would prevail in the days leading up to the vote.
Investors hate uncertainty. The immediate reaction to the Brexit vote was severe and negative. However, stocks recovered to a great extent over the following week.
Outlook on the S&P500, Impact of a Strong US Dollar & Fed Interest Rate DecisionInvast Financial Services
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► Outlook on the S&P500
► Will the Fed hike interest rates?
► Impact of a strong US Dollar on the S&P500
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
http://invast.com.au/insights
CONNECT WITH INVAST TODAY
Facebook ► https://www.facebook.com/invastglobal
Twitter ► http://twitter.com/InvastGlobal
Linkedin ► http://www.linkedin.com/company/invast
Invast ► http://www.invast.com.au
Google+ ► https://plus.google.com/+InvastAu/
1. The Leading Independent Macroeconomic Research Provider
Macroeconomic Forecasting · Market Analysis · Sector Research
About Us
Capital Economics is one of the world’s leading independent providers of macroeconomic research, with
offices in London, New York, Toronto, Sydney and Singapore.
Our highly respected team of more than 50 economists is one of the largest and based around the
globe, meaning we benefit from in-depth local knowledge and can cover events as they unfold.
Our main business is the provision of regular and ad hoc pieces of written research which are sold in
packages for annual subscription. These services are listed below. In summary, we offer country and
regional research on the US, Canada, UK, Western Europe, Japan, China, India, Latin America,
Emerging Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Emerging Asia, Australia and New Zealand. We also provide
overview services covering the global economy and financial markets, and have dedicated services
providing research on commodities and on the property sector.
In addition, our economists are available by telephone or e-mail for further discussion and analysis
according to clients’ needs. We also make presentations and undertake commissioned projects.
We are not afraid to challenge the conventional wisdom. This is reflected in our economic and market
forecasts, which are often very different from the consensus, and in our track record (overleaf).
In particular, we have been ahead of the pack in forecasting the major shifts in the world economy over
the past decade, including the US recession in 2008, the euro-zone debt crisis in 2010 and the
downturn in emerging markets and collapse in global commodity prices in 2011-14.
Our research is timely, concise, and user-friendly. We avoid simply reporting past developments and
instead provide original and forward-looking analysis, with strong and clear conclusions. Where
appropriate, we always draw out the market implications of our economic views.
Our work uses a range of proprietary indicators that give us a further edge over competitors. These
include our in-house measure of growth in China, the Capital Economics China Activity Proxy.
As well as personal contact with our economists, clients can access an archive of our research on our
website and download the Capital Economics App for tablets and smartphones.
Our Services
Global Economics Emerging Markets Economics Commodities Overview
Global Markets Emerging Asia Energy
Capital Daily Emerging Europe Industrial Metals
Latin America Precious Metal
US Economics Middle East & North Africa Agricultural Commodities
European Economics Africa
UK Economics
Japan Economics UK Consumer US Housing Market
Canada Economics UK Markets European Commercial Property
China Economics UK Cities & Regions UK Housing Market
India Economics UK Commercial Property
Australia & New Zealand
continued overleaf
2. Our Track Record
We have established an enviable reputation over the past decade for getting the big calls right:
- In November 2005, we warned in our US Focus "The coming US recession" that a bubble in the
housing market would tip the US economy into recession within the next 2-3 years.
- In the early days of the global financial crisis, Capital Economics was among the first to predict that
official interest rates would be cut to near-zero in the major advanced economies and remain low
for an extended period, keeping government bond yields low for many years too. We also argued
that inflation would remain low, despite the widespread adoption of quantitative easing.
- For example, when UK interest rates were first cut to 0.5% in 2009 we argued that they could stay
at this level for at least five years in response to prolonged fiscal tightening and a sluggish
economic recovery. They remain at 0.5% today – six years later.
- In early 2013 our US team was one of the first to predict the start of Fed tapering later that year
and a substantial correction in the prices of riskier assets (as indeed occurred in mid-2013) once
the markets began to focus on this prospect. Then in the midst of the turmoil, when many
observers were worrying that the withdrawal of Fed stimulus would result in large and sustained
falls in equity prices, we actually revised our stock market forecasts higher.
- Throughout this period we have developed an enviable reputation for extensive and balanced
coverage of Emerging Markets, drawing on our proprietary indicators of economic growth and
financial stress.
- For example, we were early to warn about the financial risks that have since caused many
markets to fall sharply. (See “Capital flows to EMs: an accident waiting to happen”, July 2011.) We
were also well ahead of the pack in identifying the structural problems that have since caused
growth in the BRICs to weaken. (See “Shifting down the gears”, September 2012.)
- Since the launch of our dedicated coverage of commodities in 2011 we have generally (and
correctly) been bearish on most industrials. For example, in our Commodities Focus, “The
impending collapse of copper prices”, published in April 2012, we forecast a decline to $5,000 per
tonne when the price of copper was still above $8,000. And in our Energy Watch, “Oil prices to
end the decade much lower”, published in November 2013, we correctly forecast a sharp drop
when the consensus was still that oil prices above $100pb were the “new normal”.
- Our detailed analysis of the economic problems in the euro-zone has allowed us to predict the
fragility of the recovery there. We were also among the first to identify the market opportunities
resulting from the threat of deflation and the likelihood of further easing from the ECB.
- We have consistently argued that the US dollar is likely to keep rising against the euro and the yen
long before this view became fashionable and even when others were talking of a major reversal.
(See our Global Markets Update, “Too soon to call the turn in the dollar”, March 2015.)
- We frequently top polls of analysts’ forecasts and have won many awards over the years, including:
o 2014 UK Forecaster of the Year (Sunday Times)
o 2014 and 2013 Russia Forecaster of the Year (Consensus Economics)
o 2012 Wolfson Prize for Economics
o 2011 UK Independent Forecaster of the Year (Sunday Times)
o 2010 US Forecaster of the Year (Wall Street Journal)
- Looking ahead, despite much of the recent gloom surrounding the global economy and emerging
markets in particular, we expect more positive than negative surprises over the next year. And
while the euro-zone and Japan will probably continue to struggle, we are more upbeat than most
on the prospects for the US and the UK.
- In the markets, we think the big falls in commodities are behind us and, while bond yields are likely
to edge higher, equities should weather the onset of higher US interest rates relatively well.
For more details of any of our services or to take a free trial, please visit our website
www.capitaleconomics.com or contact James Hayes (UK/Europe) on +44 (0)20 7808 4981,
Conor Nevin (Americas) on +1 416 413 0428, or Tony Goldberg (Asia) on +65 6595 5190.
November 2015