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Catalent (CTLT) Equity Report
- 1. 1 Thesis & RecommendationSummary Key Investment Driver #2 Key Investment Driver #3 Catalent is the global leader in the Drug Development and manufacturing industry. Their client position allows the company to gain significantly from the sector growth Unparalleled Business Strategy leading to increased demand and contracts from leading life sciences companies, resulting in long-term stable and growing revenues As the global industry leader, Catalent maintains this status through innovation. They have developed proprietary solutions and hold around 1,300 patents, allowing them to gain in their industry through size and revenue DATE: MM/DD/YY NYSE: CTLT Sector: Life Sciences Industry: Drug Development & Manu. Associate: Leon Stempert BU Finance & Investment Club The industry is growing substantially and Catalent is positioned to make gains from this growth and continue to lead in its industry. Headwind: Pricing pressure on Life Sciences companies could slow the expected growth of the industry Key Statistics Market Cap $ 3,627.36 52-Week Range $ 18.92 – 34.40 Enterprise Value $ 5,348.8 Revenue (LTM) $ 669.3 EBITDA $ 450.8 Beta (against RTY) 0.72 Margins & Ratios P/E (LTM) 1.14x D/E Ratio 0.52 ROE 155.74% EBITDA Margin 22.88% Profit Margin 11.60% Dividend Yield 0.00% Recommendation Current Trading Price: $29.13 (As of x/xx/20xx) Recommendation: BUY Target Price: $35.99 Upside/Downside (%) 23.6% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 8/18/14 2/18/15 8/18/15 2/18/16 CTLT vs. RUT vs. PSCH CTLT Russell 2000 ETF (PSCH) Key Investment Driver #1
- 2. 2 INDUSTRY TRENDS &PRIMARY RESEARCH INDUSTRY OVERVIEW DATE: MM/DD/YY Development and Manufacturing: Biosimilar Drug, Etc. This industry group consists of companies that either discovers, develop, or manufacture chemically based therapeutic and preventive medicine, and medicinal products. Companies included in this industry tend to collaborate with other pharmaceutical companies Industry Definition BU Finance & Investment Club Overview: Growth in Life Sciences companies are driven by a healthy economy, growing GDP and Global Healthcare Spending. Factors: Aging Population, Rising Consumer Wealth (Emerging Countries), Proliferation in chronic diseases (Longer life expectancies, etc.) Growth: Most sub-industries are expected to grow by 6-10% each year through 2020, and Increased Acquisitions in the entire sector Industry Characteristics: High R&D Costs, high capital intense, High Entry Barrier, Medium Competition (On Focused Researches) Industry Summary Growth by Segment: Pharma Segment sales have slowed in certain global markets, but are expected to maintain 6-8% to 2020 Biotech sales are expected CAGR of 9.02% through 2020 Generics and biosimilars Segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.03% through 2017 All other Life Sciences sub-industries are expected to grow within 6-10% Growth Drivers: Increased trend towards Universal healthcare policies (Global Trend), Aging Population Impact on Company: Catalent end consumers are top pharmaceutical, Biotech, Generics, biosimilars, and Medtech companies. Which each segment in high growth stage, Catalent stands to gain and grow in the long-term Trend #1: Optimistic Sector Growth 1831 1587 1398 2408 402 Revenue of Peer Group ($mm) Catalent ICON Charles River PAREXEL AMRI $0.00 $1,000.00 $2,000.00 $3,000.00 $4,000.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Expected High Growth Revenues
- 3. 3 INDUSTRY TRENDS &PRIMARY RESEARCH DATE: MM/DD/YYBU Finance & Investment Club Outlook: M&A has been increasing in this sector over the years. Deal value in 2014 was $351 billion, a 113 percent growth rate from 2013. The first half of 2015 saw 304 pharma deals valued at $221 billion, compared $62 billion same period 2014. Key Drivers: Pricing Pressure; strengthening existing product portfolios; replenishing pipelines depleted by patent expiry; deepening capabilities in priority areas, entering and/or emerging markets, and acquiring innovative technologies to leverage current assets or generate cost-saving synergies Impact on Company: Catalent has a unique business model that focuses on development, delivery, and supply. This makes the company look like a promising acquisition target. This activity also indirectly affects the company positively through stronger customers that are growing. Trend #3 Changing Demographics & Policy Changing Factors: Aging Population, Growing Prevalence of Chronic Diseases, Rising consumer wealth, and Universal healthcare programs Outcome: These factors are expected to boost healthcare spending and demand for life sciences products in 2016+ Impact on Company: Catalent supplies drug products to pharma's and ultimately the consumers. This changing environment will positively affect the sales of its services through increased healthcare spending/demand. Trend #2: M&A and Collaborations 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 (inthousands) Aging Population (Census Report) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 (Inthousands) Noncommunicable Diseases (NCD)
- 4. 4 COMPANY OVERVIEW DATE: MM/DD/YYBUFinance & Investment Club Catalent offers a range of life sciences services. From drug and biologic development services to delivery technologies to supply solutions. With over 80 years of experience, Catalent has the deepest expertise, the broadest offerings, and the most innovative technologies to help Life Sciences companies get more molecules to market faster, enhance product performance, and provide superior, reliable manufacturing results. Business Overview Drug Development & Formulation Services: With our broad range of expert services, we drive faster, more efficient development timelines and produce better products (Biologics Cell Line, Formulation, Solid State Services, Etc.) Drug Delivery Technologies: Offers better treatments and more value for patients, payers, and innovators with our innovative delivery technologies and dose forms. (Versatile SOFTGEL Solutions, Controlled Release, Inhalation, Injectable, and Oral Fast Dissolve) Supply Services: Offers global, reliable supply from our world-class manufacturing and supply network and integrated solutions Core Products & Services ICON is a global provider of outsourced development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical device industries. Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. is an early-stage contract research company, which provides essential products and services to help pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, government agencies and academic institutions around the globe to accelerate their research and drug development efforts PAREXEL International Corp. is a biopharmaceutical services company. It provides clinical research, medical communications, consulting, commercialization and informatics, and technology services to pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries Albany Molecular Research, Inc. engages in research and manufacturing organization providing customers drug discovery, development, and manufacturing services. Competitors & Competitive Positioning 274.00 314.00 354.00 388.00 413.00 432.00 443.00 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Adjusted EBITDA
- 5. 5 COMPANY OVERVIEW DATE: MM/DD/YYBUFinance & Investment Club Catalent generates its revenues through three main segments. Development and Clinical Solutions, Medication Deliveries Solutions, and Oral Technologies. Revenue Generation Finished Product/Service Back to Company Drug Manufacturing Supplies Pharmaceutical Raw Material Supplies Performed by Industry Firms Outsourced $$$ Drug Development & Formulation Services Drug Delivery Technologies Supply & Supply Management Services Biotech Companies Pharmaceutical & Biopharmaceutical companies Generics & Biosimilar Companies $0.00 $250.00 $500.00 $750.00 $1,000.00 $1,250.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 Historical Segment Revenue Development and Clinical Solutions Medication Deliveries Solutions Oral Technologies & Others $0.00 $400.00 $800.00 $1,200.00 $1,600.00 $2,000.00 $2,400.00 $2,800.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Revenue
- 6. 6 MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW DATE: MM/DD/YYBUFinance & Investment Club Management Profiles John Chiminski -- Holdings: 363,000 shares – No recent activity Matthew Walsh – Holdings 88,000 shares – No recent activity Management Ownership & Insider Trading John Chiminski, CEO • More than 30+ Years of Experience in the Industry • Hired as CEO of Catalent in 2009 • Former CEO of GE Medical Diagnostics from 2007-2009, but with GE for over 20 years • Masters Degree from Kellogg School of Management; BS and MS in Electrical Engineering at Purdue University Matthew Walsh, CFO • Over 8+ Years of Life Sciences Sector experience • Hired as CFO of Catalent in 2008 • Former CFO of Escala Group, Inc. (Global Collectibles Network and Precious Metals Trader) • MBA from Cornell University; BS in Chemical Engineering at Cornell University Steve Leonard, SVP - Global Operations • More than 30+ Years of Experience in the Industry • Promoted to SVP – Global Operations of Catalent in June of 2009 • Former GM of Global Operations at GE Healthcare’s Medical Diagnostics Business • BS in Mechanical Engineering at Drexel University Holding Summary Institutional Holdings 77.5% Total number of holders 260 Total shares held 97,605,000 Total value of holdings $2,388,394,350
- 7. 7 MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW DATE: MM/DD/YYBUFinance & Investment Club Exhibit X: Insider Trades Summary COMPANY TRENDS: INVESTMENT THESES Thesis: Catalent’s client position exposes it to the future significant growth expected in the life sciences sector. As more companies look to cut cost due to pricing pressure by government and R&D, this will drive growth of Catalent’s financials Aggressive investments to expand their sales and marketing activities has led them to grow their client accounts. Client Breakdown: • 82 of top 100 Branded drug marketers • 19 of top 20 generic marketers • 40 of top 50 biologics marketers • 23 of top 25 consumer health marketers globally • Key Customers: Pfizer, J&J, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Roche, Actavis, and Teva Investment Thesis #1: Global Leader in Drug Development 0 5 10 15 20 3 Months 6 Months Number of Shares Bought Number of Shares Sold -0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.10% 0.12% John (CEO) Matthew (CFO) Khichi Samrat Morel Donald E. JR Insider Share Change % Change 233.2 268.3 404.8 412.2 438.8 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Drug Development Revenues
- 8. 8 DATE: MM/DD/YYBU Finance& Investment Club Investment Thesis #2: Unparalleled Business Model Investment Thesis #3: Patented Proprietary Solutions Thesis: Catalent business strategy has gained significant demand leading to increased contracts and contract revenue. Catalent has an unrivalled and unique Business Strategy by providing advanced delivery technologies and development solutions, as well as, supply solutions. These three major solutions allow Catalent to capitalize on demand from businesses looking to market their products faster and grow their business, while reducing the cost. Thesis: Catalent continues to innovate and develop proprietary solutions to sustain a competitive advantage in the industry. Currently, they have over 1,300 patents in advanced drug delivery and biologics formulations and technologies, manufacturing, nutritional and pharmaceutical dosage forms, mammalian cell engineering, sterile manufacturing services, and others. Notable Patents: Vegicaps and Optishell capsules, and GPEx Technology COMPANY TRENDS: INVESTMENT THESES 175.3 268.3 404.8 412.2 438.8 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Contract Generated Revenue 19.00% 20.00% 21.00% 22.00% 23.00% 24.00% 25.00% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 EBITDA & EBITDA Margins
- 9. 9 GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES &PROJECTIONS DATE: MM/DD/YYBU Finance & Investment Club Revenue Summary & Forecast Growth as per a proxy for revenue Revenue is expected to grow with the sector through increased healthcare spending, pricing pressure, and demand from Pharmaceutical, Biotech, Biosimilar, Generics, Consumers, etc. 175 268 405 412 439 467 499 533 570 610 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Drug Development Revenue 224 219 246 262 279 297 317 339 363 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Medication Deliveries Revenue 1,203 1,176 1,169 1,130 1,107 1,096 1,096 1,107 1,118 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Oral Technologies Revenue 1,532 1,695 1,800 1,828 1,831 1,853 1,892 1,947 2,017 2,092 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Revenues
- 10. 10 VALUATION: DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW ANALYSIS DATE: MM/DD/YYBU Finance & Investment Club Catalent is a leader in its industry. The industry is expected to grow by ~ 6-10% and Catalent is in the position to see revenues grow as a result. Assumptions WACC Calculation Risk-Free Rate 1.83% Equity Risk Premium 6.70% Size Premium 0.94% Beta 0.72 Cost of Equity 7.62% Cost of Debt 2.27% WACC 5.62% Historical Forecasted 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenue Growth 10.6% 6.2% 1.5% 0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% COGS (% of Revenue) 59.42% 59.39% 59.96% 59.43% 58.70% 58.70% 58.70% 58.70% 58.70% 58.70% EBITDA Growth 2.07% 11.76% 6.97% 2.98% -1.33% 2.08% 2.89% 3.62% 3.71% EBITDA (% of Revenue) 21.8% 20.10% 21.10% 22.30% 22.90% 22.3% 22.3% 22.3% 22.3% 22.3% EBIT Growth -1.54% 8.31% 15.70% 5.38% -7.06% 0.86% 1.64% 2.35% 2.42% EBIT (% of Revenue) 14.0% 12.40% 12.70% 14.40% 15.20% 13.90% 13.80% 13.60% 13.40% 13.30% NWC 372.2 126.4 162.4 160.1 187.2 204.1 208.4 214.4 222.2 230.4 FCFF Calculation Forecasted 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 EBIT $258.38 $260.60 $264.87 $271.09 $277.64 - Taxes $90.43 $91.21 $92.70 $94.88 $97.17 $348.81 $351.81 $357.57 $365.97 $374.81 + D&A $154.85 $161.24 $169.15 $178.64 $188.76 - CAPEX $196.39 $199.48 $216.46 $235.47 $249.30 - Δ in NWC $16.94 $4.25 $6.01 $7.76 $8.23 Unlevered FCF $290.33 $309.32 $304.24 $301.38 $306.03 Net Present Value $1,285.34
- 11. 11 VALUATION: DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW ANALYSIS DATE: MM/DD/YYBU Finance & Investment Club Terminal Value Calculation Catalent is about to release its latest fiscal year data in the coming weeks. The data used to calculate the intrinsic value is a bit stale, however, using the relative value multiple, a more accurate implied price becomes apparent. Key Takeaways DCF Valuation Growth Rate 2.00% Undiscounted TEV $ 8,620 Discounted TEV $ 6,558 Implied Exit Multiple 10.20x Enterprise Value $ 7,843 Equity Value $ 6,122 Implied Share Price $ 49.17 WACC/Growth Rate Price Sensitivity WACC $49.17 4% 4.6% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1% 6.6% 7.1% 7.6% GrowthRate 3.0% $181.03 $121.09 $ 89.47 $ 69.97 $ 56.76 $ 47.23 $ 40.05 $ 34.44 2.5% $123.49 $ 91.26 $ 71.37 $ 57.90 $ 48.19 $ 40.86 $ 35.15 $ 30.57 2.0% $ 93.08 $ 72.80 $ 59.07 $ 49.17 $ 41.70 $ 35.87 $ 31.20 $ 27.39 1.50% $ 74.27 $ 60.27 $ 50.17 $ 42.55 $ 36.61 $ 31.85 $ 27.96 $ 24.73 1.00% $ 61.49 $ 51.19 $ 43.42 $ 37.36 $ 32.51 $ 28.55 $ 25.25 $ 22.47 0.50% $ 52.24 $ 44.32 $ 38.14 $ 33.19 $ 29.15 $ 25.78 $ 22.95 $ 20.52 3.5% $283.42 $178.90 $127.52 $96.96 $76.70 $62.29 $51.51 Valuation Output: 1yr Price Target $ 35.99 Current Price $ 29.13 Upside Potential 23.6% Recommendation BUY
- 12. 12 VALUATION: COMPARABLE COMPANIES ANALYSIS DATE:MM/DD/YYBU Finance & Investment Club - Comps Comparable, but not identical. Some comps have different segments - More accurate representation of the implied share price than intrinsic approach Key Takeaways Name TKR ICON ICLR Charles River Labs CRL PAREXEL PRXL Albany Molecular Research AMRI Wide Comparable Companies Wide CompCo Results EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Target 8.0x 11.9x Max 8.0x 11.9x Mean 6.1x 10.2x Median 5.7x 10.0x Min 4.6x 9.1x
- 13. 13 DATE: MM/DD/YYBU Finance& Investment Club VALUATION SUMMARY & RANGE ANALYSIS Catalent looks to be positioned to take advantage of growth in the industry. My price target seems fairly reasonable. Consider investing into a company and industry the fund doesn’t have much exposure to. Key Takeaways Methodology Price / Share Weight Discounted Cash Flow Perpetuity Growth $16.53 50% Exit Multiple $25.56 25% Comparable Company EV/Sales - Core $16.73 5% EV/EBITDA $22.35 10% P/E $19.49 10% Target Price/Share $35.99 Valuation Summary >>Income Approach (75%) • The overall growth expected for the industry is driving the intrinsic valuation assumptions >>Market Approach (25%) • EV/EBITDA more of an appropriate metic for this industry • Comps are good comparables, but have other segments Assumptions: change weights to fit your analysis Valuation Football Field
- 14. 14 Appendix 1: IncomeStatement
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- 16. 16 Appendix 3: CashFlow Statement
Editor's Notes
- #2 McNew & Saania
- #3 Make headlines a cause-effect thesis – e.g. “Economies of Scale Driving Industry Consolidation” Common trends: Changes in underlying commodity prices because of some supply/demand change Industry consolidation increasing prices or driving out high-cost competition Substitute goods driving down demand Changes in consumer preferences Cyclical effects – indicate leverage (consider regression) and whether positive or negative correlation Foreign companies entering market or exporting at lower cost Changes in supply chain structure, e.g. outsourcing part of the business overseas Regulatory/legal changes Expansion/contraction of capacity Technological changes Changes in underlying demographics Geographic expansion Increasing/decreasing multiple valuations
- #4 Make headlines a cause-effect thesis – e.g. “Economies of Scale Driving Industry Consolidation” Common trends: Changes in underlying commodity prices because of some supply/demand change Industry consolidation increasing prices or driving out high-cost competition Substitute goods driving down demand Changes in consumer preferences Cyclical effects – indicate leverage (consider regression) and whether positive or negative correlation Foreign companies entering market or exporting at lower cost Changes in supply chain structure, e.g. outsourcing part of the business overseas Regulatory/legal changes Expansion/contraction of capacity Technological changes Changes in underlying demographics Geographic expansion Increasing/decreasing multiple valuations Aging Population Source: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo/p95-16-1.pdf
- #7 Management Profiles: Benchmark performance against peer group since took over Note any significant market cap growth of companies where previously in leadership Note any improvement in margins, etc. above industry Note any preference for organic growth vs. acquisitions Note any preference for debt load Note capital expenditure habits Note dividends/share buybacks Note if manager has outperformed in both good and bad cycles for the industry Note if there have been any accounting scandals or significant earnings revisions Note compensation in stock/stock options
- #8 Note insider buying/selling as well as flat ownership %’s – high ownership and insider buying highly correlated with performance, especially in the small-cap space Note: asymmetric in that there are plenty of non-damning reasons to sell but only one reason to buy Common theses: Underappreciated changes in fundamentals Likely acquisition target Cheap on a relative basis without good reason Depressed stock price for some reason we do not view as important Unrecognized valuable asset – real estate, brand name, etc. Particularly good exposure to a positive trend Minimal downside due to very low valuation with no BK risk Pricing does not reflect market commodity pricing Market commodity pricing does not reflect our expectations Unlocked value through financial engineering Strong, steady cash flows with high dividend yield Massive market size allows company to grow for decades Superior operating model reduces costs, increases flexibility, etc. Contractual agreements lock in certain cash flows – low risk New product poised to deliver market share gains Geographic expansion offer considerable upside Soon-to-be-realized estimates of pent-up demand Historical lows of time-series multiple valuation, should return to average Etc.
- #9 Common theses: Underappreciated changes in fundamentals Likely acquisition target Cheap on a relative basis without good reason Depressed stock price for some reason we do not view as important Unrecognized valuable asset – real estate, brand name, etc. Particularly good exposure to a positive trend Minimal downside due to very low valuation with no BK risk Pricing does not reflect market commodity pricing Market commodity pricing does not reflect our expectations Unlocked value through financial engineering Strong, steady cash flows with high dividend yield Massive market size allows company to grow for decades Superior operating model reduces costs, increases flexibility, etc. Contractual agreements lock in certain cash flows – low risk New product poised to deliver market share gains Geographic expansion offer considerable upside Soon-to-be-realized estimates of pent-up demand Historical lows of time-series multiple valuation, should return to average Etc. GPEx: Used to develop stable, high-yielding mammalian cell lines for both innovator and bio-similar biologic compounds
- #13 Include choice of comps, why, and what benchmark you used (e.g. median, median and mean, regression) Weighting of comps with resulting target prices