CAT Modeling: data uncertainty and sensitivity testing

1. © 2014 ESH Consulting Services

2. Data uncertainty and Sensitivity Testing
“In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice,
there is” – Yogi Berra.
In the previous presentation, I shared with you a brief piece of work about
data uncertainty and its possible impact in CAT Modeling Analysis. For this
one, I would like to share with the Reader a brief job in which we can see
where the differences possibly come and what could be the data facts that
affect the CAT Modeling result and which of the buildings characteristics is
the model sensitive to.
That is commonly known as “Sensitivity Testing” in the CAT Modeling circle.
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3. Data uncertainty and Sensitivity Testing
Case Study: Colombia Buildings (Estimated Replacement Values in USD Thousands)
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Risk Name City Sector
CRESTA
Zone
Latitude Longitude
Year
finished
Stories Occupancy Value
Torre
Colpatria
Bogotá San Diego 1 4.6110 -74.0703 1979 50 Offices 955,000
Centro de
Comercio
Internacion
al
Bogotá N/A 1 4.6140 -74.0708 1977 50 Offices 960,000
Torre de
Cali
Cali
Valle del
Cauca
4 3.4590 -76.5290 1984 45
Offices &
Hotel
225,000
Centro
Coltejer
Medellín N/A 9 6.2501 -75.5661 1972 37 Offices 875,000
Edificio
Avianca
Bogotá N/A 1 4.6026 -74.0725 1969 41 Offices 805,000
Palmetto Cartagena N/A 8 10.4043 -75.5549 2007 42 Residential 880,000

4. Data uncertainty and Sensitivity Testing
Selected Criteria to perform the different CAT PML Analysis is:
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Buildings
Characteristics
Scenario 01 Scenario 02 Scenario 03 Scenario 04 Scenario 05 Scenario 06
Geocoding
CRESTA
Zones
Lat & Lon Lat & Lon Lat & Lon Lat & Lon Lat & Lon
Construction
Type
Unknown Unknown
Reinforced
Concrete
Reinforced
Concrete
Reinforced
Concrete
Steel
reinforced
concrete frame
Stories Unknown Unknown Unknown Real Real Real
Year finished Unknown Unknown Unknown Unknown Real Real

5. Data uncertainty and Sensitivity Testing
The effect of the Selected Criteria to perform the different CAT PML Analysis is (USD Thousands)
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Return Period
(years)
Scenario 01 Scenario 02 Scenario 03 Scenario 04 Scenario 05 Scenario 06
50 88,219 108,426 52,888 36,678 14,697 14,409
100 157,905 183,896 90,942 67,803 32,730 32,133
250 277,123 305,673 142,871 108,864 53,507 53,507
500 384,802 445,859 237,924 190,096 99,759 98,075
1,000 567,876 799,818 308,931 272,140 143,056 140,679
5,000 1,357,853 1,734,800 639,768 707,595 385,277 391,718
Annual Average
Loss
6,405 7,495 3,570 2,518 1,156 1,150
Standard
Deviation
43,730 56,010 24,495 28,769 12,998 13,005

6. Data uncertainty and Sensitivity Testing
As suspected earlier, buildings characteristics and its proper use in CAT Modeling
Analysis, could have an important impact in the Analysis Result.
For this particular piece of work, we can come to the conclussion that there is strong
evidence that Latitude and Longitude, Number of Stories and Real Constructive type
have an important effect in the CAT PML Analysis Result.
Therefore, rescuing the idea of the previous presentation, we can reaffirm the idea that
we should make an additional effort in order to get more and most accurate data from
the Risks to be modeled.
© 2014 ESH Consulting Services

7. Thank you for your interest and time!
Eduardo Sandoval Hernández
esandovalh180869@gmail.com
Cell phone: +52 155 54557789
© 2014 ESH Consulting Services