The objective was to develop a model of internal ballistics in solid rocket motors to model case breach faults and provide early warning. The model couples PDEs for gas dynamics with ODEs for grain regression, nozzle ablation, and fault dynamics. It was verified against high-fidelity simulations and able to accurately predict nominal and off-nominal regimes. An algorithm was developed to infer fault parameters in-flight and predict fault evolution. Operational envelopes were created showing regions of failure for case breaches at different times and positions.