Case Study about Ethical:
A woman was diagnosed with motor neuron disease 5 years ago. This is a condition that destroys motor nerves, making control of movement impossible, while the mind is virtually unaffected. People with motor neuron disease normally die within 4 years of diagnosis from suffocation due to the inability of the inspiratory muscles to contract. The woman's condition has steadily declined. She is not expected to live through the month and is worried about the pain that she will face in her final hours. She asks her doctor to give her diamorphine for pain if she begins to suffocate or choke. This will lessen her pain, but it will also hasten her death. About a week later, she falls very ill, and is having trouble breathing.
Questions:
*Does she have a right to make this choice, especially in view of the fact that she will be dead in a short while (say six hours)? Please explain
*Is this choice an extension of her autonomy? Please explain
*Is the short amount of time she has to live ethically relevant? Please explain
*Is there an ethical difference between her dying in 6 hours and dying in a week? Please explain
*Is the right for a patient's self-determination powerful enough to create obligations on the part of others to aid her so that she can exercise her rights? Please explain
* She clearly cannot kill herself. She can't move, but should someone be FORCED to help her, or to find someone to help her? Please explain
*Should the money used to care for this woman be taken into account when she is being helped? Please explain
*Do you think that legalizing euthanasia could create conflicts of interest for the patient/ or the doctor? Please explain
*Will people feel that they need to end their lives earlier to save money? Please explain
naked statistics
Stripping the Dread from the Data
CHARLES WHEELAN
Dedication
For Katrina
Contents
Cover
Title Page
Dedication
Introduction: Why I hated calculus but love statistics
1 What’s the Point?
2 Descriptive Statistics: Who was the best baseball player of all time?
Appendix to Chapter 2
3 Deceptive Description: “He’s got a great personality!” and other true but
grossly misleading statements
4 Correlation: How does Netflix know what movies I like?
Appendix to Chapter 4
5 Basic Probability: Don’t buy the extended warranty on your $99 printer
5½ The Monty Hall Problem
6 Problems with Probability: How overconfident math geeks nearly
destroyed the global financial system
7 The Importance of Data: “Garbage in, garbage out”
8 The Central Limit Theorem: The Lebron James of statistics
9 Inference: Why my statistics professor thought I might have cheated
kindle:embed:0003?mime=image/jpg
Appendix to Chapter 9
10 Polling: How we know that 64 percent of Americans support the death
penalty (with a sampling error ± 3 percent)
Appendix to Chapter 10
11 Regression Analysis: The miracle elixir
Appendix to Chapter 11
12 Common Regression Mistakes: The mandatory warning.
naked statisticsStripping the Dread from the DataC.docxgemaherd
This document is the introduction to the book "Naked Statistics" by Charles Wheelan. It summarizes the author's relationship with math and statistics. Wheelan disliked calculus in high school because the purpose was never explained, but enjoyed physics and probability where real-world applications were shown. He believes statistics can be made more intuitive and accessible by focusing on concepts rather than technical details. While statistics are everywhere, the field has a reputation for being dull. However, statistics are a powerful tool when used correctly and dangerous when misused or misunderstood. The book aims to explain key statistical concepts in an engaging way to help readers understand and interpret numbers in news and data in their lives.
The book "The War to End All Wars" by Russel Freedman describes World War I and how it was supposed to be the war to end all wars. However, the peace agreement that ended WWI, the Treaty of Versailles, set the stage for WWII due to its harsh treatment of Germany. While WWI was devastating in terms of lives lost, it failed to end warfare between nations and instead may have contributed to new conflicts by humiliating Germany with the terms of surrender.
The document outlines the steps for requesting and receiving writing assistance from HelpWriting.net, including registering for an account, submitting a request form with instructions and deadline, reviewing writer bids and choosing a writer, placing a deposit to start the writing process, reviewing and authorizing payment for the completed work, and utilizing free revisions if needed. The process aims to match clients with qualified writers and provide original, high-quality content through a bidding system and revisions.
This document contains an English test for a 3rd grade student. It discusses a student named Elisa who is unsure about what career path to pursue after high school. She is good at many subjects but cannot decide between becoming an astronaut, doctor, history teacher, or writer. The test asks the student to advise Elisa on making this decision and discuss their own future plans and any advice their parents have given. It provides instructions for the test and contains multiple choice and paragraph writing questions.
Whatever happened to design based inferenceStephenSenn2
Given as the Sprott lecture, University of Waterloo September 2022
Abstract
What exactly should we think about appropriate analyses for designed experiments and why? If conditional inference trumps marginal inference, why should we care about randomisation? Isn’t everything just modelling? The Rothamsted School held that design matters. Taking an example of applying John Nelder’s general balance approach to a notorious problem, Lord’s paradox, I shall show that there may be some lessons for two fashionable topics: causal analysis and big data. I shall conclude that if we want not only to make good estimates but estimate how good our estimates are, design does matter.
The document provides instructions for creating an account and submitting an assignment request on the HelpWriting.net website. It outlines a 5-step process: 1) Create an account with an email and password. 2) Complete a form with assignment details and attach samples. 3) Review bids from writers and select one. 4) Review the completed paper and authorize payment. 5) Request revisions until satisfied. The purpose is to outline the process for students to hire writers on the site to complete their assignments.
naked statisticsStripping the Dread from the DataC.docxgemaherd
This document is the introduction to the book "Naked Statistics" by Charles Wheelan. It summarizes the author's relationship with math and statistics. Wheelan disliked calculus in high school because the purpose was never explained, but enjoyed physics and probability where real-world applications were shown. He believes statistics can be made more intuitive and accessible by focusing on concepts rather than technical details. While statistics are everywhere, the field has a reputation for being dull. However, statistics are a powerful tool when used correctly and dangerous when misused or misunderstood. The book aims to explain key statistical concepts in an engaging way to help readers understand and interpret numbers in news and data in their lives.
The book "The War to End All Wars" by Russel Freedman describes World War I and how it was supposed to be the war to end all wars. However, the peace agreement that ended WWI, the Treaty of Versailles, set the stage for WWII due to its harsh treatment of Germany. While WWI was devastating in terms of lives lost, it failed to end warfare between nations and instead may have contributed to new conflicts by humiliating Germany with the terms of surrender.
The document outlines the steps for requesting and receiving writing assistance from HelpWriting.net, including registering for an account, submitting a request form with instructions and deadline, reviewing writer bids and choosing a writer, placing a deposit to start the writing process, reviewing and authorizing payment for the completed work, and utilizing free revisions if needed. The process aims to match clients with qualified writers and provide original, high-quality content through a bidding system and revisions.
This document contains an English test for a 3rd grade student. It discusses a student named Elisa who is unsure about what career path to pursue after high school. She is good at many subjects but cannot decide between becoming an astronaut, doctor, history teacher, or writer. The test asks the student to advise Elisa on making this decision and discuss their own future plans and any advice their parents have given. It provides instructions for the test and contains multiple choice and paragraph writing questions.
Whatever happened to design based inferenceStephenSenn2
Given as the Sprott lecture, University of Waterloo September 2022
Abstract
What exactly should we think about appropriate analyses for designed experiments and why? If conditional inference trumps marginal inference, why should we care about randomisation? Isn’t everything just modelling? The Rothamsted School held that design matters. Taking an example of applying John Nelder’s general balance approach to a notorious problem, Lord’s paradox, I shall show that there may be some lessons for two fashionable topics: causal analysis and big data. I shall conclude that if we want not only to make good estimates but estimate how good our estimates are, design does matter.
The document provides instructions for creating an account and submitting an assignment request on the HelpWriting.net website. It outlines a 5-step process: 1) Create an account with an email and password. 2) Complete a form with assignment details and attach samples. 3) Review bids from writers and select one. 4) Review the completed paper and authorize payment. 5) Request revisions until satisfied. The purpose is to outline the process for students to hire writers on the site to complete their assignments.
Chapter 10 Check PointAnswer the following questions. Please.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 10 Check Point
Answer the following questions. Please ensure to use the Author, YYYY APA citations with any content brought into the assignment.
What are Anomalies/Outliers? And what are some variants of Anomaly/Outlier Detection Problems?
What are some Challenges and Work Assumptions of Anomaly Detection?
Explain the Nearest-Neighbor Based Approach and the different ways to Define Outliers.
Explain the Density-based: LOF Approach.
Provide the General Steps and Types of Anomaly Detection Schemes.
.
Chapter 10 Case Project 10-2 two page report double spaceCas.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 10: Case Project 10-2: two page report double space
Case Project 10-2: Discovering Web Application Attack Tools
After discovering that Alexander Rocco Corporation has multiple Web servers running on different platforms, you wonder whether your security tools can asses Web applications vulnerabilities throughly. You have only two tools for conducting Web security tests: Wapiti and Wfetch. Based on the information write a two page report on other tools for security testers conducting Web applications vulnerability testing. Use the skills you have gained to search the Internet and explore the Kali DVD to find tools for Windows and *nix platforms. The report should state the tool's name, describe the installation method, and include a brief description of what the tool does.
Chapter 11: Case Project 11-1- one-page report
Case Project: Determining Vulnerabilities of Wireless Networks
After conducting a security test on the Alexander Rocco network, you discover that the company has a wireless router configured to issue IP addresses to connecting stations. Vistumbler indicates that channel 6 is active, the SSID is linksys, and WEP is enabled. Based on this information, write a one-page report listing possible vulnerabilities of the WLAN’s current configuration. Your report should include recommendations for improving wireless security.
.
Chapter 1 provided a high-level overview of the Information Syst.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1 provided a high-level overview of the Information Systems Security Policy Management:
Information Systems Security (ISS). What is it? The act of protecting information and the systems that store, process and transmit
Why is ISS needed? ISS provides a foundation for establishing protection of systems and data against risks such as: Unauthorized access and Use, Disclosure, System Disruption, Modification or Corruption
Destruction
After reading chapter 1 and looking at the ISS Management Life Cycle.
Let’s look at a real-world scenario and discuss what C-I-A Triad is all about.
You must do the following:
1) Create a new thread. As indicated above,
please explain how DHS should handle the situation described in the preceding paragraph.
.
Chapter 1 Intro to Policy Making in a The Digital Age.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1: Intro to Policy Making in a The Digital Age
CHAPTER SUMMARY: Summarize chapter presented during the week. Identify the main point (as in "What's your point?"), thesis, or conclusion of the key ideas presented in the chapter.
SUPPORT: Do research outside of the book and demonstrate that you have in a very obvious way. This refers to research beyond the material presented in the textbook. Show something you have discovered from your own research. Be sure this is obvious and adds value beyond what is contained in the chapter itself.
EVALUATION: Apply the concepts from the appropriate chapter. Hint: Be sure to use specific terms and models directly from the textbook in analyzing the material presented and include the page in the citation.
SOURCES: Include citations with your sources.
Use APA style citations and references.
.
Chapter 1 discussed the expansion of the European intermodal rai.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1 discussed the expansion of the European intermodal rail-road freight transport (EIT) under the European Union. Chapter 2 explores the development of intermodal transportation in the United States.
Instructions:
In 2-3 pages maximum, discuss the impact (negative and positive) that regulation/deregulation has had on the growth and/or continued growth of intermodal transportation in both countries. Ensure you site specific examples in your paper. You are encouraged to use the internet and other sources to support your discussion.
Submission Instructions:
Please attach the assignment in Word Format. Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines.
.
Change is an activity and mindset that many resists. Kotter proposed.docxzebadiahsummers
Change is an activity and mindset that many resists. Kotter proposed a “dual operating system” for accelerating change.
1. What are the main reasons why people resist change? (support response with academic sources).
2. Then, give an example when YOU were resistant to change. Explain what the change was about, why you resisted, and what was the outcome.
3. Describe Kotter’s idea of a dual operating system for making change happen in an accelerating world. (and support your answer). Then provide a critical assessment.
.
Chapter 1 Government Boss, financial partner, regulator – Entrepre.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1: Government: Boss, financial partner, regulator – Entrepreneurs in mixed economies
Chapter 3: Electronic innovation and the government: David Sarnoff creates the RCA empire
Chapter 5: Speeding voice and data traffic worldwide: Network microprocessors from RMI
Chapter 7: Implementing information technology across the globe
Ives, B., & Jarvenpaa, S.L. (1991). Applications of Global Information Technology: Key Issues for Management. MIS Quarterly, 15(1), 33. https://doi.org/10.2307/249433
Chapter 9: Kressel, H., & Lento, T. V. (2012).
Entrepreneurship in the Global Economy : Engine for Economic Growth
. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
7
.
Chapter 1 Combating terrorism has entailed restrictions on civil li.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1: Combating terrorism has entailed restrictions on civil liberties. How can we reconcile civil liberty and national security? Are we better off opting for more liberty or more security? Are the two goals mutually exclusive? Have Americans become less supportive of the limitations on liberty put into place after the terror attacks in 2001, or do they still perceive that it makes sense to give up some liberties in order to feel more secure?
.
Chapter 1 Evaluation and Social Work Making the ConnectionP.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1 Evaluation and Social Work: Making the Connection
Page 4
Let’s begin by considering three important questions: 1. Is evaluation an important area of social work? 2. Is the evaluator role an important one for social workers? 3. How can evaluations help improve or enhance social work interventions? These questions may be your questions as you begin to read this book. They are questions that many social work students and practitioners have pondered. This book is about evaluation so the responses to the first two questions, in brief, will be no surprise to you. Yes, evaluation is an important area of social work. Further, the evaluator role is an important role for every social worker to prepare to assume. Some social workers will be evaluators of programs, and virtually every social worker will be an evaluator of their own practice. It’s like asking whether social workers need to know whether they are doing a good job, or asking them if they know whether their interventions are effective in helping their clients. The third question, asking how evaluation can help improve social work interventions, is the focus of this text.
The underlying theme driving the book is that evaluation is a vital element of any social work approach and is critical for ensuring that social work actually does work! A reassuring theme is that evaluation is a practice area that BSW and MSW students and practitioners alike can learn. Social workers and students wanting to maximize their impact in their jobs will find that the perspective, knowledge, ethics, and skills of evaluations covered in this book are a central component of practice and ensure that you will have a much greater impact on your clients’ well-being. This book provides the needed preparation for evaluation in both a comprehensive and a readable format. The primary emphasis is on the various kinds of small and mid-range formative evaluations that are often implemented at the local agency level; less emphasis is placed on the large, com-plex national and regional studies that may draw the most coverage under the title evaluation. These smaller formative evaluations are also the critical ones that social work students and graduates either are assigned or should consider taking on in their field placements and employment agencies. Such
Page 5
evaluations often are instrumental in determining whether the programs in which you are working will continue and possibly expand. Example of a Small, Formative Evaluation An agency that provides an anger management program to perpetrators of domestic violence offers a series of ten psychoeducational group sessions to help them manage their anger. The agency also conducts an evaluation of this program that is integral to it. An anger management scale is used to measure changes that occur in the participants’ anger after they have completed all ten sessions of a group program. Throughout the series, the specific items of the anger management scale (e.g., be.
Changes in the Human Figure in ArtYou likely noticed that during.docxzebadiahsummers
Changes in the Human Figure in Art
You likely noticed that during the two hundred years covered in this week’s study there were radical changes in how the human figure is depicted in Italy, from something that was highly stylized to an idealized form that looked more real yet was strongly influenced by the Classical Age of ancient Greece and Rome. In Northern Europe, however, depiction of the human form remained somewhat stylized.
Use the textbook and/or online sources to locate and capture three works of art.
one from the Early Renaissance (fourteenth century, 1300–1399)
one from the Northern European Renaissance (fifteenth century, 1400–1499)
one from the Italian Renaissance (fifteenth century, 1400–1499)
Your works of art must either be all paintings or all sculptures.
First, place images of your selected works in a Word document. Then do the following:
For each work identify:
The artist
Title of the work of art
The date(s) it was created
The medium or materials used to create the work of art, such as oil paint, marble, etc.
Where the work is located now.
In a
well-developed
paragraph, provide at least two important historical facts about each work.
In another well-developed paragraph, describe how each artist depicted the human figure, supporting your observation using art historical vocabulary from this week's reading.
Then, In a 6–10-sentence concluding paragraph:
Compare and contrast how the depiction of the human figure has changed. Be sure to note such things as general appearance of the figures; their body types; whether the figures have been stylized, elongated, or idealized; and whether their clothing, colors, and other visual details have changed.
Based on your reading and what you learned from the historic facts you have for each work of art discuss what may have been influencing factors behind these changes.
Offer a citation of your sources for each image and the information provided as appropriate.
.
Chapter #131. Explain the terms Computationalism and Culturalism.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter #13
1. Explain the terms Computationalism and Culturalism and their effects on Learning
2. Explain the implications of Pedagogy and Social practices in the development of adult learners
Chapter #15
3. According to Ziehe (2018), what are some normal Learning problems in youth. Name and explain at least 3
Chapters #16 and #17
4. Describe the four components of the Social Theory of Learning
5.Explain the Psychological theories:
a. Behaviorist
b. Cognitive
d. Social Learning
.
chapter 8 notes – Asian Americans model minoritieschapter b.docxzebadiahsummers
chapter 8 notes – Asian Americans: model minorities?
chapter begins with a story of a sociologist, riding in a taxi
- he was born in the US of Japanese heritage (grandfather came to US in 1880s)
- taxi drive asks him how long he was in the US (the answer is since birth)
- brings up the perception of ‘other’ around Asian Americans
focus of this chapter: Chinese Americans and Japanese Americans (oldest Asian groups in the US; often considered to be ‘model minorities’)
- model minorities stereotype: successful, affluent, highly educated, not suffer from minority group status (remember this is a stereotype)
why an increase in immigration from the Philippines and India into the US?
- both colonized
— India by Britain
— Philippines 1st by Spain, then the US
current demographics
- Asian Americans are about 5.6% of the total population (2012) – see table 8.1 above
— contrasted with African Americans (13%) and Hispanic Americans (16%)
- overall, rapid growth in numbers of Asian Americans in US recently
— one reason: immigration changes in 1965
— one of the largest growing groups – Asian Indians
— rapid growth is expected to continue
- 10 largest Asian groups in fig 8.1 below
- high percentage of foreign born in Asian American population
— 88% of Asian Americans are either 1st generation (foreign born) or 2nd generation (their children)
— — see figure 8.2 below
- similar to Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans are
+ likely to identify with country of origin 1st
origins and cultures
great diversity in languages, cultures, religions
- Asian cultures are much older than the founding of the US
- these cultures are quite different from each other, but there are some similarities
similarities:
- group membership is more important than the individual
— some of above from Confucianism which emphasizes a person is one part of the larger social system, one part of the status hierarchy
— — therefore loyalty to group, conformity to societal expections and respect for superiors are important
- it is important to be sensitive to the opinions and judgements of others; avoid public embarrassment, giving offence
— guilt / shame dichotomy
— — Asian cultures: emphasis on not bringing shame to the family / group from others (if someone goes against societal expectations, they are bringing shame onto their family / group)
— — — emphasis on proper behavior, conformity to convention and how others judge one, avoid embarressment (to self or to others), avoid personal confrontations
— — — overall desire to seek harmony
— — Western culture emphasizes individuals develop personal consciences and we need to avoid guilt (if someone goes against societal expectations, they are guilty of ... — Westerners guided by personal sense of guilt)
- generally (but not always) traditionally patriarchal
— in China foot binding was practiced for many generations
the above tendencies are more likely for individuals new to the US, but not as likely for individuals / families in the U.
CHAPTER 1 This list below indicated various audits, attestation,.docxzebadiahsummers
CHAPTER 1: This list below indicated various audits, attestation, and other engagements involving auditors.
1. A report on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as required by Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.
2. An auditor’s report on whether the financial statements are fairly presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.
3. An engagement to help a company structure a merger transaction to minimize the taxes of the combined entities.
4. A report stating whether the company has complied with restrictive covenants related to officer compensation and payment of dividends contained in a bank loan agreement.
5. A report on the effectiveness of internal controls at a company that provides payroll processing for other companies.
6. An examination report stating whether a company’s statement of greenhouse gas emissions is presented in conformity with standards issued by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and the World Resources Institute.
7. Evaluating the voting process and certifying the outcome for Rolling Stones Magazine’s “Greatest Singer of All Time” poll.
8. A report indicating whether a governmental entity has compiled with certain government regulations.
9. A review report that provides limited assurance about whether financial statements are fairly stated in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
10. A report about management’s assertion on the effectiveness of controls over the availability, reliability, integrity, and maintainability of its accounting information system.
11. An evaluation of the effectiveness of key measures used to assess an entity’s success in achieving specific targets linked to an entity’s strategic plan and vision.
Required
a. Explain the relationships among audit services, attestation services, and other assurance and no assurance services provided by CPA’s.
b. For each of the services listed above, indicate the type of service from the list that follows.
(1) An audit of historical financial statements.
(2) An attestation service other than an audit service.
(3) An assurance or no assurance service that is not an attestation service.
1-21. Dave Czarnecki is the managing partner of Czarnecki and Hogan, a medium-sized local CPA firm located outside of Chicago. Over lunch, he is surprised when his friend James Foley asks, him, “Doesn’t it bother you that your clients don’t look forward to seeing their auditors each year?” Dave responds, “Well auditing is only one of several services we provide. Most of our work for clients does not involve financial statement audits, and our audit clients seem to like interacting with us.”
a. Identify ways in which a financial statement audit adds value for clients.
b. List other services other than audits that Czarnecki and Hogan likely provides.
c. Assume Czarnecki and Hogan has hired you as a consultant to identify ways in which they can expand their practice. Identify at least one additional service that .
Challenges and Resources for Nurses Participating in a Hurrica.docxzebadiahsummers
The document discusses a study exploring nurses' perspectives on challenges and resources during an evacuation of New York University Langone Medical Center due to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Qualitative interviews with nurses found that their prior experience with Hurricane Irene led them to underestimate the severity of Hurricane Sandy. Most nurses had limited personal or hospital-based disaster training. The evacuation presented significant challenges due to lack of experience, training, and unclear policies. However, nurses drew on support from colleagues, leadership, and personal resourcefulness to respond effectively. The study aims to inform disaster preparedness education to better support nurses' roles.
Chamberlain College of NursingNR631 Nurse Executive Track—CGE I.docxzebadiahsummers
Chamberlain College of Nursing NR631 Nurse Executive Track—CGE I
Learning Agreement
Student name:
Student D#:
Student e-mail, phone:
Mentor name and credentials:
Mentor contact information (work phone, cell phone, e-mail and work address):
Directions:
For Week 1, complete the Learning Agreement with self-identified goals to meet Course Outcomes (COs) and initial plans to meet those self-identified goals; review the TIPS document to help you and discuss your goals and plans with your mentor. Your mentor must sign the Learning Agreement for your Week 1 submission.
The agreement should be revised each week to reflect completed goals, additional goals, and changes to the plan dictated by the actual experience or revisions suggested by faculty or the mentor. At the end of the practicum experience, evaluate success with your mentor and obtain the mentor’s signature at the bottom of agreement. Save this form as a Word document and enter required information directly onto it; submit the completed Learning Agreement, signed by your mentor, on the Saturday of Week 8. See the Learning Agreement Grading Rubric for grading details.
The Learning Agreement consists of three sections.
I. Student Learning Outcomes table (Week 1)
II. Signatures approving plan (Week 1)
III. Signatures and mentor verification (Week 8)
Due Dates:
1. Initial signed Learning Agreement is submitted by 11:59 p.m. MT, Sunday at the end of Week 1
2. Completed signed Learning Agreement is submitted by 11:59 p.m. MT, Saturday of Week 8
A minimum of 144 hours practicum experience is required by the end of NR632.
If the 144 hours are not completed by end of term, you will receive a grade of “I” and not be able to graduate until completed.
I. Student Learning Outcomes
Course Outcomes
Student Identified Practicum Goals to Meet COs
Plan to Meet Student Identified Practicum Goals
Narrative Description of Attainment of Student-Identified Goals Through the End of CGE 1
CO 1: Apply leadership skills concepts of project management as a nurse executive in an organizational setting to develop, implement and evaluate successful project plans. (POs 4 and 5)
CO 2: Using current knowledge, standards of practice, and research from evidence-based literature, synthesize a foundation for the nurse executive role. (POs 3 and 4)
CO 3: Exemplify professional values and scholarship that support the role of a student in a practicum setting. (PO 4)
CO 4: Contribute to the body of nursing leadership and management knowledge through research, planning, evaluation and dissemination of findings. (PO 4)
CO 5: Apply professional values characteristic of the competent and caring nurse executive that promote holistic care principles and an appreciation of cultural humility ( POs 1, 3, and 4)
CO 6: Apply evidence-based fiscal principles that contribute to the creation of a caring environment characterized by high quality, safe, patient-centered care (PO.
Chamberlain College of NursingNR449 Evidence-Based PracticeEvide.docxzebadiahsummers
Chamberlain College of Nursing NR449 Evidence-Based PracticeEvidence Matrix Table
Article
Reference
Purpose
Hypothesis
Study Question
Variables
Independent(I)
Dependent(D)
Study Design
Sample
Size and Selection
Data Collection
Methods
Major Findings
1
(sample not a real article)
Smith, Lewis (2013),
What should I eat? A focus for those living with diabetes. Journal of Nursing Education, 1 (4) 111-112.
How do educational support groups effect dietary modifications in patients with diabetes?
D-Dietary modifications
I-Education
Qualitative
N- 18
Convenience sample-selected from local support group in Pittsburgh, PA
Focus Groups
Support and education improved compliance with dietary modifications.
1
2
3
4
5
NR449 Evidence Matric Table.docx Revised10/20/14 ns/cs
1
.
Centralized System for Strategic ResourcesIntroductionAttentio.docxzebadiahsummers
Centralized System for Strategic Resources
Introduction
Attention: According to recent news reports, US states are competing with each other to shop for medical supplies such as masks, PPE (personal protective equipment), and ventilators. Sometimes, states are even battling with the federal government for bidding, which pushed the prices for such supplies even higher and caused a lot of chaos.
Reveal Topic: A centralized system for strategic resources means that the federal government would represent all individual states and make purchases globally as a single outward-facing entity. Then resources will be coordinated and allocated to individual states.
Credibility: New York State Governor Cuomo states that it is very problematic to keep the current chaotic and unorganized systems. It costs more for taxpayers and could be life-threatening.
Central Idea: US federal government should establish a centralized system for buying, coordinating, and allocating strategic resources such as medical supplies.
Preview: Today, I will talk about why the lack of a centralized system for strategic resources could be costly and even deadly and the benefits of a centralized system.
Transition: Now let's first have a look at the harmful impacts of the current unorganized situation.
Body
I. Main Point #1 (statement of the need for action): Since the unorganized bidding for medical supplies is causing chaos and uncertainty, there should be a way to organize the bidding efforts so that all states can be allocated sufficient supplies.
A. (Description of the problem) The demand for medical supplies is high across all states in the United States amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
1. (signs, symptoms, effects of problem) Due to an increase in coronavirus cases, the low supply of medical resources, and the existence of numerous bidders in the market, States are experiencing a surge in the need for medical supplies (Lara, Rand, and Bartley).
2. (example, narrative, or testimony) The current situation in the country has slowed down the capacity of states to procure PPEs and has also augmented the costs (Triggle).
B. (Importance of problem) There is no efficient way to facilitate the process as everyone is trying to purchase the same thing.
1. (extent of problem) In the past, states in the U.S have worked closely with regional officials when faced with emergencies such as hurricanes, but the current unprecedented situation has affected all states simultaneously and has made the process murkier.
a. (facts/statistics) There is a bidding war between the various states and local governments as all states in the U.S are desperate to find a solution to meet the needs of their healthcare professionals in their fight against the spread of COVID-19 (Lara, Rand, and Bartley).
b. (expert/narrative) According to Casey Tingle, deputy director of the Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, it is not clear whether the federal administration can p.
Challenge your thinking.10) After completing the WebQuest, has y.docxzebadiahsummers
Challenge your thinking.
10) After completing the WebQuest, has your opinion about the homeless individuals changed?
11) If so, how did it change? If not, provide rationale.
12) Suggest at least two community interventions relating to homelessness.
13) Are there examples of these interventions in our area? Identify and describe the services they offer.
FS 1513 Observation Project Details
Time Involved
Students enrolled in FS 1513 are expected to complete at least 15 hours of observations related to human development. This work will involve creating a journal entry for each of their observational sessions. There should be entries for at least 15 hours of observations by the end of the semester.
There should be 1 journal entry for each time you observe—whether it is for 1 hour or more—there should only be 1 entry. So, if you observed 3 times in 1 week for 1 hour each time then you would need 3 journal entries. Alternately, if you observed 1 time for 3 hours then you would need 1 journal entry. However, this means that there will be less information to assess your work (i.e., 1 mistake can cost more points).
Observations: Who and Where
Part of the purpose of this project is to observe differences in development across the life span. So, observations should involve people from different age ranges over the course of the semester. Some entries should focus on development observed during childhood (i.e., observing children from infancy through grade-school), others should involve observing development during adolescence (i.e., observing pubescent and adolescent children), and others should involve should involve observing development during adulthood (i.e., observing adults from early to later in life). The important point is that observations should be completed for at least three age groups for the entire semester.
Observations should take place in naturalistic settings. Naturalistic means that people should be observed in place where they would normally be present (i.e., not in a lab). Ideally, this would mean that they are able to behave as they normally would. The goal, however, is to have enough time to observe a person so that they can demonstrate what they have developed. This means that you will need to be able to watch them behaving naturally for the duration of your observation (i.e., at least 1 hour). Observations that are less than 1 hour will not be counted as complete.
Formatting
Journal entries using the appropriate templates should be completed for each observation session. The templates (available on the course website and below) should contain all of the identifying information. Journal entries that do not use the template will not be graded.
First, each journal entry must contain documentary information. This should cover (1) who did the observations and who was observed, (2) where and when did the observations happen, (3) what were the people being observed generally like, (4) what was the setting like, and (5) keep tr.
This document discusses an assignment for a class discussion on jingles in radio advertising. Students are instructed to identify a jingle they dislike and one they like, analyze why each jingle works or does not work, and present their critique to the class. They are also asked to provide thoughtful responses to at least two other student posts by going beyond simple agreement and adding something new to the discussion. A grading rubric is provided that evaluates submissions based on professionalism, thoroughness, and progression.
Chapter 10 Check PointAnswer the following questions. Please.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 10 Check Point
Answer the following questions. Please ensure to use the Author, YYYY APA citations with any content brought into the assignment.
What are Anomalies/Outliers? And what are some variants of Anomaly/Outlier Detection Problems?
What are some Challenges and Work Assumptions of Anomaly Detection?
Explain the Nearest-Neighbor Based Approach and the different ways to Define Outliers.
Explain the Density-based: LOF Approach.
Provide the General Steps and Types of Anomaly Detection Schemes.
.
Chapter 10 Case Project 10-2 two page report double spaceCas.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 10: Case Project 10-2: two page report double space
Case Project 10-2: Discovering Web Application Attack Tools
After discovering that Alexander Rocco Corporation has multiple Web servers running on different platforms, you wonder whether your security tools can asses Web applications vulnerabilities throughly. You have only two tools for conducting Web security tests: Wapiti and Wfetch. Based on the information write a two page report on other tools for security testers conducting Web applications vulnerability testing. Use the skills you have gained to search the Internet and explore the Kali DVD to find tools for Windows and *nix platforms. The report should state the tool's name, describe the installation method, and include a brief description of what the tool does.
Chapter 11: Case Project 11-1- one-page report
Case Project: Determining Vulnerabilities of Wireless Networks
After conducting a security test on the Alexander Rocco network, you discover that the company has a wireless router configured to issue IP addresses to connecting stations. Vistumbler indicates that channel 6 is active, the SSID is linksys, and WEP is enabled. Based on this information, write a one-page report listing possible vulnerabilities of the WLAN’s current configuration. Your report should include recommendations for improving wireless security.
.
Chapter 1 provided a high-level overview of the Information Syst.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1 provided a high-level overview of the Information Systems Security Policy Management:
Information Systems Security (ISS). What is it? The act of protecting information and the systems that store, process and transmit
Why is ISS needed? ISS provides a foundation for establishing protection of systems and data against risks such as: Unauthorized access and Use, Disclosure, System Disruption, Modification or Corruption
Destruction
After reading chapter 1 and looking at the ISS Management Life Cycle.
Let’s look at a real-world scenario and discuss what C-I-A Triad is all about.
You must do the following:
1) Create a new thread. As indicated above,
please explain how DHS should handle the situation described in the preceding paragraph.
.
Chapter 1 Intro to Policy Making in a The Digital Age.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1: Intro to Policy Making in a The Digital Age
CHAPTER SUMMARY: Summarize chapter presented during the week. Identify the main point (as in "What's your point?"), thesis, or conclusion of the key ideas presented in the chapter.
SUPPORT: Do research outside of the book and demonstrate that you have in a very obvious way. This refers to research beyond the material presented in the textbook. Show something you have discovered from your own research. Be sure this is obvious and adds value beyond what is contained in the chapter itself.
EVALUATION: Apply the concepts from the appropriate chapter. Hint: Be sure to use specific terms and models directly from the textbook in analyzing the material presented and include the page in the citation.
SOURCES: Include citations with your sources.
Use APA style citations and references.
.
Chapter 1 discussed the expansion of the European intermodal rai.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1 discussed the expansion of the European intermodal rail-road freight transport (EIT) under the European Union. Chapter 2 explores the development of intermodal transportation in the United States.
Instructions:
In 2-3 pages maximum, discuss the impact (negative and positive) that regulation/deregulation has had on the growth and/or continued growth of intermodal transportation in both countries. Ensure you site specific examples in your paper. You are encouraged to use the internet and other sources to support your discussion.
Submission Instructions:
Please attach the assignment in Word Format. Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines.
.
Change is an activity and mindset that many resists. Kotter proposed.docxzebadiahsummers
Change is an activity and mindset that many resists. Kotter proposed a “dual operating system” for accelerating change.
1. What are the main reasons why people resist change? (support response with academic sources).
2. Then, give an example when YOU were resistant to change. Explain what the change was about, why you resisted, and what was the outcome.
3. Describe Kotter’s idea of a dual operating system for making change happen in an accelerating world. (and support your answer). Then provide a critical assessment.
.
Chapter 1 Government Boss, financial partner, regulator – Entrepre.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1: Government: Boss, financial partner, regulator – Entrepreneurs in mixed economies
Chapter 3: Electronic innovation and the government: David Sarnoff creates the RCA empire
Chapter 5: Speeding voice and data traffic worldwide: Network microprocessors from RMI
Chapter 7: Implementing information technology across the globe
Ives, B., & Jarvenpaa, S.L. (1991). Applications of Global Information Technology: Key Issues for Management. MIS Quarterly, 15(1), 33. https://doi.org/10.2307/249433
Chapter 9: Kressel, H., & Lento, T. V. (2012).
Entrepreneurship in the Global Economy : Engine for Economic Growth
. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
7
.
Chapter 1 Combating terrorism has entailed restrictions on civil li.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1: Combating terrorism has entailed restrictions on civil liberties. How can we reconcile civil liberty and national security? Are we better off opting for more liberty or more security? Are the two goals mutually exclusive? Have Americans become less supportive of the limitations on liberty put into place after the terror attacks in 2001, or do they still perceive that it makes sense to give up some liberties in order to feel more secure?
.
Chapter 1 Evaluation and Social Work Making the ConnectionP.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter 1 Evaluation and Social Work: Making the Connection
Page 4
Let’s begin by considering three important questions: 1. Is evaluation an important area of social work? 2. Is the evaluator role an important one for social workers? 3. How can evaluations help improve or enhance social work interventions? These questions may be your questions as you begin to read this book. They are questions that many social work students and practitioners have pondered. This book is about evaluation so the responses to the first two questions, in brief, will be no surprise to you. Yes, evaluation is an important area of social work. Further, the evaluator role is an important role for every social worker to prepare to assume. Some social workers will be evaluators of programs, and virtually every social worker will be an evaluator of their own practice. It’s like asking whether social workers need to know whether they are doing a good job, or asking them if they know whether their interventions are effective in helping their clients. The third question, asking how evaluation can help improve social work interventions, is the focus of this text.
The underlying theme driving the book is that evaluation is a vital element of any social work approach and is critical for ensuring that social work actually does work! A reassuring theme is that evaluation is a practice area that BSW and MSW students and practitioners alike can learn. Social workers and students wanting to maximize their impact in their jobs will find that the perspective, knowledge, ethics, and skills of evaluations covered in this book are a central component of practice and ensure that you will have a much greater impact on your clients’ well-being. This book provides the needed preparation for evaluation in both a comprehensive and a readable format. The primary emphasis is on the various kinds of small and mid-range formative evaluations that are often implemented at the local agency level; less emphasis is placed on the large, com-plex national and regional studies that may draw the most coverage under the title evaluation. These smaller formative evaluations are also the critical ones that social work students and graduates either are assigned or should consider taking on in their field placements and employment agencies. Such
Page 5
evaluations often are instrumental in determining whether the programs in which you are working will continue and possibly expand. Example of a Small, Formative Evaluation An agency that provides an anger management program to perpetrators of domestic violence offers a series of ten psychoeducational group sessions to help them manage their anger. The agency also conducts an evaluation of this program that is integral to it. An anger management scale is used to measure changes that occur in the participants’ anger after they have completed all ten sessions of a group program. Throughout the series, the specific items of the anger management scale (e.g., be.
Changes in the Human Figure in ArtYou likely noticed that during.docxzebadiahsummers
Changes in the Human Figure in Art
You likely noticed that during the two hundred years covered in this week’s study there were radical changes in how the human figure is depicted in Italy, from something that was highly stylized to an idealized form that looked more real yet was strongly influenced by the Classical Age of ancient Greece and Rome. In Northern Europe, however, depiction of the human form remained somewhat stylized.
Use the textbook and/or online sources to locate and capture three works of art.
one from the Early Renaissance (fourteenth century, 1300–1399)
one from the Northern European Renaissance (fifteenth century, 1400–1499)
one from the Italian Renaissance (fifteenth century, 1400–1499)
Your works of art must either be all paintings or all sculptures.
First, place images of your selected works in a Word document. Then do the following:
For each work identify:
The artist
Title of the work of art
The date(s) it was created
The medium or materials used to create the work of art, such as oil paint, marble, etc.
Where the work is located now.
In a
well-developed
paragraph, provide at least two important historical facts about each work.
In another well-developed paragraph, describe how each artist depicted the human figure, supporting your observation using art historical vocabulary from this week's reading.
Then, In a 6–10-sentence concluding paragraph:
Compare and contrast how the depiction of the human figure has changed. Be sure to note such things as general appearance of the figures; their body types; whether the figures have been stylized, elongated, or idealized; and whether their clothing, colors, and other visual details have changed.
Based on your reading and what you learned from the historic facts you have for each work of art discuss what may have been influencing factors behind these changes.
Offer a citation of your sources for each image and the information provided as appropriate.
.
Chapter #131. Explain the terms Computationalism and Culturalism.docxzebadiahsummers
Chapter #13
1. Explain the terms Computationalism and Culturalism and their effects on Learning
2. Explain the implications of Pedagogy and Social practices in the development of adult learners
Chapter #15
3. According to Ziehe (2018), what are some normal Learning problems in youth. Name and explain at least 3
Chapters #16 and #17
4. Describe the four components of the Social Theory of Learning
5.Explain the Psychological theories:
a. Behaviorist
b. Cognitive
d. Social Learning
.
chapter 8 notes – Asian Americans model minoritieschapter b.docxzebadiahsummers
chapter 8 notes – Asian Americans: model minorities?
chapter begins with a story of a sociologist, riding in a taxi
- he was born in the US of Japanese heritage (grandfather came to US in 1880s)
- taxi drive asks him how long he was in the US (the answer is since birth)
- brings up the perception of ‘other’ around Asian Americans
focus of this chapter: Chinese Americans and Japanese Americans (oldest Asian groups in the US; often considered to be ‘model minorities’)
- model minorities stereotype: successful, affluent, highly educated, not suffer from minority group status (remember this is a stereotype)
why an increase in immigration from the Philippines and India into the US?
- both colonized
— India by Britain
— Philippines 1st by Spain, then the US
current demographics
- Asian Americans are about 5.6% of the total population (2012) – see table 8.1 above
— contrasted with African Americans (13%) and Hispanic Americans (16%)
- overall, rapid growth in numbers of Asian Americans in US recently
— one reason: immigration changes in 1965
— one of the largest growing groups – Asian Indians
— rapid growth is expected to continue
- 10 largest Asian groups in fig 8.1 below
- high percentage of foreign born in Asian American population
— 88% of Asian Americans are either 1st generation (foreign born) or 2nd generation (their children)
— — see figure 8.2 below
- similar to Hispanic Americans, Asian Americans are
+ likely to identify with country of origin 1st
origins and cultures
great diversity in languages, cultures, religions
- Asian cultures are much older than the founding of the US
- these cultures are quite different from each other, but there are some similarities
similarities:
- group membership is more important than the individual
— some of above from Confucianism which emphasizes a person is one part of the larger social system, one part of the status hierarchy
— — therefore loyalty to group, conformity to societal expections and respect for superiors are important
- it is important to be sensitive to the opinions and judgements of others; avoid public embarrassment, giving offence
— guilt / shame dichotomy
— — Asian cultures: emphasis on not bringing shame to the family / group from others (if someone goes against societal expectations, they are bringing shame onto their family / group)
— — — emphasis on proper behavior, conformity to convention and how others judge one, avoid embarressment (to self or to others), avoid personal confrontations
— — — overall desire to seek harmony
— — Western culture emphasizes individuals develop personal consciences and we need to avoid guilt (if someone goes against societal expectations, they are guilty of ... — Westerners guided by personal sense of guilt)
- generally (but not always) traditionally patriarchal
— in China foot binding was practiced for many generations
the above tendencies are more likely for individuals new to the US, but not as likely for individuals / families in the U.
CHAPTER 1 This list below indicated various audits, attestation,.docxzebadiahsummers
CHAPTER 1: This list below indicated various audits, attestation, and other engagements involving auditors.
1. A report on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as required by Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.
2. An auditor’s report on whether the financial statements are fairly presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards.
3. An engagement to help a company structure a merger transaction to minimize the taxes of the combined entities.
4. A report stating whether the company has complied with restrictive covenants related to officer compensation and payment of dividends contained in a bank loan agreement.
5. A report on the effectiveness of internal controls at a company that provides payroll processing for other companies.
6. An examination report stating whether a company’s statement of greenhouse gas emissions is presented in conformity with standards issued by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and the World Resources Institute.
7. Evaluating the voting process and certifying the outcome for Rolling Stones Magazine’s “Greatest Singer of All Time” poll.
8. A report indicating whether a governmental entity has compiled with certain government regulations.
9. A review report that provides limited assurance about whether financial statements are fairly stated in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
10. A report about management’s assertion on the effectiveness of controls over the availability, reliability, integrity, and maintainability of its accounting information system.
11. An evaluation of the effectiveness of key measures used to assess an entity’s success in achieving specific targets linked to an entity’s strategic plan and vision.
Required
a. Explain the relationships among audit services, attestation services, and other assurance and no assurance services provided by CPA’s.
b. For each of the services listed above, indicate the type of service from the list that follows.
(1) An audit of historical financial statements.
(2) An attestation service other than an audit service.
(3) An assurance or no assurance service that is not an attestation service.
1-21. Dave Czarnecki is the managing partner of Czarnecki and Hogan, a medium-sized local CPA firm located outside of Chicago. Over lunch, he is surprised when his friend James Foley asks, him, “Doesn’t it bother you that your clients don’t look forward to seeing their auditors each year?” Dave responds, “Well auditing is only one of several services we provide. Most of our work for clients does not involve financial statement audits, and our audit clients seem to like interacting with us.”
a. Identify ways in which a financial statement audit adds value for clients.
b. List other services other than audits that Czarnecki and Hogan likely provides.
c. Assume Czarnecki and Hogan has hired you as a consultant to identify ways in which they can expand their practice. Identify at least one additional service that .
Challenges and Resources for Nurses Participating in a Hurrica.docxzebadiahsummers
The document discusses a study exploring nurses' perspectives on challenges and resources during an evacuation of New York University Langone Medical Center due to Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Qualitative interviews with nurses found that their prior experience with Hurricane Irene led them to underestimate the severity of Hurricane Sandy. Most nurses had limited personal or hospital-based disaster training. The evacuation presented significant challenges due to lack of experience, training, and unclear policies. However, nurses drew on support from colleagues, leadership, and personal resourcefulness to respond effectively. The study aims to inform disaster preparedness education to better support nurses' roles.
Chamberlain College of NursingNR631 Nurse Executive Track—CGE I.docxzebadiahsummers
Chamberlain College of Nursing NR631 Nurse Executive Track—CGE I
Learning Agreement
Student name:
Student D#:
Student e-mail, phone:
Mentor name and credentials:
Mentor contact information (work phone, cell phone, e-mail and work address):
Directions:
For Week 1, complete the Learning Agreement with self-identified goals to meet Course Outcomes (COs) and initial plans to meet those self-identified goals; review the TIPS document to help you and discuss your goals and plans with your mentor. Your mentor must sign the Learning Agreement for your Week 1 submission.
The agreement should be revised each week to reflect completed goals, additional goals, and changes to the plan dictated by the actual experience or revisions suggested by faculty or the mentor. At the end of the practicum experience, evaluate success with your mentor and obtain the mentor’s signature at the bottom of agreement. Save this form as a Word document and enter required information directly onto it; submit the completed Learning Agreement, signed by your mentor, on the Saturday of Week 8. See the Learning Agreement Grading Rubric for grading details.
The Learning Agreement consists of three sections.
I. Student Learning Outcomes table (Week 1)
II. Signatures approving plan (Week 1)
III. Signatures and mentor verification (Week 8)
Due Dates:
1. Initial signed Learning Agreement is submitted by 11:59 p.m. MT, Sunday at the end of Week 1
2. Completed signed Learning Agreement is submitted by 11:59 p.m. MT, Saturday of Week 8
A minimum of 144 hours practicum experience is required by the end of NR632.
If the 144 hours are not completed by end of term, you will receive a grade of “I” and not be able to graduate until completed.
I. Student Learning Outcomes
Course Outcomes
Student Identified Practicum Goals to Meet COs
Plan to Meet Student Identified Practicum Goals
Narrative Description of Attainment of Student-Identified Goals Through the End of CGE 1
CO 1: Apply leadership skills concepts of project management as a nurse executive in an organizational setting to develop, implement and evaluate successful project plans. (POs 4 and 5)
CO 2: Using current knowledge, standards of practice, and research from evidence-based literature, synthesize a foundation for the nurse executive role. (POs 3 and 4)
CO 3: Exemplify professional values and scholarship that support the role of a student in a practicum setting. (PO 4)
CO 4: Contribute to the body of nursing leadership and management knowledge through research, planning, evaluation and dissemination of findings. (PO 4)
CO 5: Apply professional values characteristic of the competent and caring nurse executive that promote holistic care principles and an appreciation of cultural humility ( POs 1, 3, and 4)
CO 6: Apply evidence-based fiscal principles that contribute to the creation of a caring environment characterized by high quality, safe, patient-centered care (PO.
Chamberlain College of NursingNR449 Evidence-Based PracticeEvide.docxzebadiahsummers
Chamberlain College of Nursing NR449 Evidence-Based PracticeEvidence Matrix Table
Article
Reference
Purpose
Hypothesis
Study Question
Variables
Independent(I)
Dependent(D)
Study Design
Sample
Size and Selection
Data Collection
Methods
Major Findings
1
(sample not a real article)
Smith, Lewis (2013),
What should I eat? A focus for those living with diabetes. Journal of Nursing Education, 1 (4) 111-112.
How do educational support groups effect dietary modifications in patients with diabetes?
D-Dietary modifications
I-Education
Qualitative
N- 18
Convenience sample-selected from local support group in Pittsburgh, PA
Focus Groups
Support and education improved compliance with dietary modifications.
1
2
3
4
5
NR449 Evidence Matric Table.docx Revised10/20/14 ns/cs
1
.
Centralized System for Strategic ResourcesIntroductionAttentio.docxzebadiahsummers
Centralized System for Strategic Resources
Introduction
Attention: According to recent news reports, US states are competing with each other to shop for medical supplies such as masks, PPE (personal protective equipment), and ventilators. Sometimes, states are even battling with the federal government for bidding, which pushed the prices for such supplies even higher and caused a lot of chaos.
Reveal Topic: A centralized system for strategic resources means that the federal government would represent all individual states and make purchases globally as a single outward-facing entity. Then resources will be coordinated and allocated to individual states.
Credibility: New York State Governor Cuomo states that it is very problematic to keep the current chaotic and unorganized systems. It costs more for taxpayers and could be life-threatening.
Central Idea: US federal government should establish a centralized system for buying, coordinating, and allocating strategic resources such as medical supplies.
Preview: Today, I will talk about why the lack of a centralized system for strategic resources could be costly and even deadly and the benefits of a centralized system.
Transition: Now let's first have a look at the harmful impacts of the current unorganized situation.
Body
I. Main Point #1 (statement of the need for action): Since the unorganized bidding for medical supplies is causing chaos and uncertainty, there should be a way to organize the bidding efforts so that all states can be allocated sufficient supplies.
A. (Description of the problem) The demand for medical supplies is high across all states in the United States amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
1. (signs, symptoms, effects of problem) Due to an increase in coronavirus cases, the low supply of medical resources, and the existence of numerous bidders in the market, States are experiencing a surge in the need for medical supplies (Lara, Rand, and Bartley).
2. (example, narrative, or testimony) The current situation in the country has slowed down the capacity of states to procure PPEs and has also augmented the costs (Triggle).
B. (Importance of problem) There is no efficient way to facilitate the process as everyone is trying to purchase the same thing.
1. (extent of problem) In the past, states in the U.S have worked closely with regional officials when faced with emergencies such as hurricanes, but the current unprecedented situation has affected all states simultaneously and has made the process murkier.
a. (facts/statistics) There is a bidding war between the various states and local governments as all states in the U.S are desperate to find a solution to meet the needs of their healthcare professionals in their fight against the spread of COVID-19 (Lara, Rand, and Bartley).
b. (expert/narrative) According to Casey Tingle, deputy director of the Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, it is not clear whether the federal administration can p.
Challenge your thinking.10) After completing the WebQuest, has y.docxzebadiahsummers
Challenge your thinking.
10) After completing the WebQuest, has your opinion about the homeless individuals changed?
11) If so, how did it change? If not, provide rationale.
12) Suggest at least two community interventions relating to homelessness.
13) Are there examples of these interventions in our area? Identify and describe the services they offer.
FS 1513 Observation Project Details
Time Involved
Students enrolled in FS 1513 are expected to complete at least 15 hours of observations related to human development. This work will involve creating a journal entry for each of their observational sessions. There should be entries for at least 15 hours of observations by the end of the semester.
There should be 1 journal entry for each time you observe—whether it is for 1 hour or more—there should only be 1 entry. So, if you observed 3 times in 1 week for 1 hour each time then you would need 3 journal entries. Alternately, if you observed 1 time for 3 hours then you would need 1 journal entry. However, this means that there will be less information to assess your work (i.e., 1 mistake can cost more points).
Observations: Who and Where
Part of the purpose of this project is to observe differences in development across the life span. So, observations should involve people from different age ranges over the course of the semester. Some entries should focus on development observed during childhood (i.e., observing children from infancy through grade-school), others should involve observing development during adolescence (i.e., observing pubescent and adolescent children), and others should involve should involve observing development during adulthood (i.e., observing adults from early to later in life). The important point is that observations should be completed for at least three age groups for the entire semester.
Observations should take place in naturalistic settings. Naturalistic means that people should be observed in place where they would normally be present (i.e., not in a lab). Ideally, this would mean that they are able to behave as they normally would. The goal, however, is to have enough time to observe a person so that they can demonstrate what they have developed. This means that you will need to be able to watch them behaving naturally for the duration of your observation (i.e., at least 1 hour). Observations that are less than 1 hour will not be counted as complete.
Formatting
Journal entries using the appropriate templates should be completed for each observation session. The templates (available on the course website and below) should contain all of the identifying information. Journal entries that do not use the template will not be graded.
First, each journal entry must contain documentary information. This should cover (1) who did the observations and who was observed, (2) where and when did the observations happen, (3) what were the people being observed generally like, (4) what was the setting like, and (5) keep tr.
This document discusses an assignment for a class discussion on jingles in radio advertising. Students are instructed to identify a jingle they dislike and one they like, analyze why each jingle works or does not work, and present their critique to the class. They are also asked to provide thoughtful responses to at least two other student posts by going beyond simple agreement and adding something new to the discussion. A grading rubric is provided that evaluates submissions based on professionalism, thoroughness, and progression.
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering.pptxDenish Jangid
Chapter wise All Notes of First year Basic Civil Engineering
Syllabus
Chapter-1
Introduction to objective, scope and outcome the subject
Chapter 2
Introduction: Scope and Specialization of Civil Engineering, Role of civil Engineer in Society, Impact of infrastructural development on economy of country.
Chapter 3
Surveying: Object Principles & Types of Surveying; Site Plans, Plans & Maps; Scales & Unit of different Measurements.
Linear Measurements: Instruments used. Linear Measurement by Tape, Ranging out Survey Lines and overcoming Obstructions; Measurements on sloping ground; Tape corrections, conventional symbols. Angular Measurements: Instruments used; Introduction to Compass Surveying, Bearings and Longitude & Latitude of a Line, Introduction to total station.
Levelling: Instrument used Object of levelling, Methods of levelling in brief, and Contour maps.
Chapter 4
Buildings: Selection of site for Buildings, Layout of Building Plan, Types of buildings, Plinth area, carpet area, floor space index, Introduction to building byelaws, concept of sun light & ventilation. Components of Buildings & their functions, Basic concept of R.C.C., Introduction to types of foundation
Chapter 5
Transportation: Introduction to Transportation Engineering; Traffic and Road Safety: Types and Characteristics of Various Modes of Transportation; Various Road Traffic Signs, Causes of Accidents and Road Safety Measures.
Chapter 6
Environmental Engineering: Environmental Pollution, Environmental Acts and Regulations, Functional Concepts of Ecology, Basics of Species, Biodiversity, Ecosystem, Hydrological Cycle; Chemical Cycles: Carbon, Nitrogen & Phosphorus; Energy Flow in Ecosystems.
Water Pollution: Water Quality standards, Introduction to Treatment & Disposal of Waste Water. Reuse and Saving of Water, Rain Water Harvesting. Solid Waste Management: Classification of Solid Waste, Collection, Transportation and Disposal of Solid. Recycling of Solid Waste: Energy Recovery, Sanitary Landfill, On-Site Sanitation. Air & Noise Pollution: Primary and Secondary air pollutants, Harmful effects of Air Pollution, Control of Air Pollution. . Noise Pollution Harmful Effects of noise pollution, control of noise pollution, Global warming & Climate Change, Ozone depletion, Greenhouse effect
Text Books:
1. Palancharmy, Basic Civil Engineering, McGraw Hill publishers.
2. Satheesh Gopi, Basic Civil Engineering, Pearson Publishers.
3. Ketki Rangwala Dalal, Essentials of Civil Engineering, Charotar Publishing House.
4. BCP, Surveying volume 1
বাংলাদেশের অর্থনৈতিক সমীক্ষা ২০২৪ [Bangladesh Economic Review 2024 Bangla.pdf] কম্পিউটার , ট্যাব ও স্মার্ট ফোন ভার্সন সহ সম্পূর্ণ বাংলা ই-বুক বা pdf বই " সুচিপত্র ...বুকমার্ক মেনু 🔖 ও হাইপার লিংক মেনু 📝👆 যুক্ত ..
আমাদের সবার জন্য খুব খুব গুরুত্বপূর্ণ একটি বই ..বিসিএস, ব্যাংক, ইউনিভার্সিটি ভর্তি ও যে কোন প্রতিযোগিতা মূলক পরীক্ষার জন্য এর খুব ইম্পরট্যান্ট একটি বিষয় ...তাছাড়া বাংলাদেশের সাম্প্রতিক যে কোন ডাটা বা তথ্য এই বইতে পাবেন ...
তাই একজন নাগরিক হিসাবে এই তথ্য গুলো আপনার জানা প্রয়োজন ...।
বিসিএস ও ব্যাংক এর লিখিত পরীক্ষা ...+এছাড়া মাধ্যমিক ও উচ্চমাধ্যমিকের স্টুডেন্টদের জন্য অনেক কাজে আসবে ...
How to Setup Warehouse & Location in Odoo 17 InventoryCeline George
In this slide, we'll explore how to set up warehouses and locations in Odoo 17 Inventory. This will help us manage our stock effectively, track inventory levels, and streamline warehouse operations.
Leveraging Generative AI to Drive Nonprofit InnovationTechSoup
In this webinar, participants learned how to utilize Generative AI to streamline operations and elevate member engagement. Amazon Web Service experts provided a customer specific use cases and dived into low/no-code tools that are quick and easy to deploy through Amazon Web Service (AWS.)
Gender and Mental Health - Counselling and Family Therapy Applications and In...PsychoTech Services
A proprietary approach developed by bringing together the best of learning theories from Psychology, design principles from the world of visualization, and pedagogical methods from over a decade of training experience, that enables you to: Learn better, faster!
Beyond Degrees - Empowering the Workforce in the Context of Skills-First.pptxEduSkills OECD
Iván Bornacelly, Policy Analyst at the OECD Centre for Skills, OECD, presents at the webinar 'Tackling job market gaps with a skills-first approach' on 12 June 2024
it describes the bony anatomy including the femoral head , acetabulum, labrum . also discusses the capsule , ligaments . muscle that act on the hip joint and the range of motion are outlined. factors affecting hip joint stability and weight transmission through the joint are summarized.
Case Study about EthicalA woman was diagnosed with motor neuron.docx
1. Case Study about Ethical:
A woman was diagnosed with motor neuron disease 5 years ago.
This is a condition that destroys motor nerves, making control
of movement impossible, while the mind is virtually unaffected.
People with motor neuron disease normally die within 4 years of
diagnosis from suffocation due to the inability of the inspiratory
muscles to contract. The woman's condition has steadily
declined. She is not expected to live through the month and is
worried about the pain that she will face in her final hours. She
asks her doctor to give her diamorphine for pain if she begins to
suffocate or choke. This will lessen her pain, but it will also
hasten her death. About a week later, she falls very ill, and is
having trouble breathing.
Questions:
*Does she have a right to make this choice, especially in view
of the fact that she will be dead in a short while (say six hours)?
Please explain
*Is this choice an extension of her autonomy? Please explain
*Is the short amount of time she has to live ethically relevant?
Please explain
*Is there an ethical difference between her dying in 6 hours and
dying in a week? Please explain
*Is the right for a patient's self-determination powerful enough
to create obligations on the part of others to aid her so that she
can exercise her rights? Please explain
* She clearly cannot kill herself. She can't move, but should
someone be FORCED to help her, or to find someone to help
her? Please explain
*Should the money used to care for this woman be taken into
account when she is being helped? Please explain
*Do you think that legalizing euthanasia could create conflicts
of interest for the patient/ or the doctor? Please explain
*Will people feel that they need to end their lives earlier to save
money? Please explain
2. naked statistics
Stripping the Dread from the Data
CHARLES WHEELAN
Dedication
For Katrina
Contents
Cover
Title Page
Dedication
Introduction: Why I hated calculus but love statistics
1 What’s the Point?
2 Descriptive Statistics: Who was the best baseball player of all
time?
Appendix to Chapter 2
3. 3 Deceptive Description: “He’s got a great personality!” and
other true but
grossly misleading statements
4 Correlation: How does Netflix know what movies I like?
Appendix to Chapter 4
5 Basic Probability: Don’t buy the extended warranty on your
$99 printer
5½ The Monty Hall Problem
6 Problems with Probability: How overconfident math geeks
nearly
destroyed the global financial system
7 The Importance of Data: “Garbage in, garbage out”
8 The Central Limit Theorem: The Lebron James of statistics
9 Inference: Why my statistics professor thought I might have
cheated
kindle:embed:0003?mime=image/jpg
Appendix to Chapter 9
10 Polling: How we know that 64 percent of Americans support
the death
penalty (with a sampling error ± 3 percent)
Appendix to Chapter 10
11 Regression Analysis: The miracle elixir
4. Appendix to Chapter 11
12 Common Regression Mistakes: The mandatory warning label
13 Program Evaluation: Will going to Harvard change your life?
Conclusion: Five questions that statistics can help answer
Appendix: Statistical software
Notes
Acknowledgments
Index
More praise for Naked Statistics
Also by Charles Wheelan
Copyright
Introduction
Why I hated calculus but love statistics
I have always had an uncomfortable relationship with math. I
don’t like
numbers for the sake of numbers. I am not impressed by fancy
formulas
that have no real-world application. I particularly disliked high
school
calculus for the simple reason that no one ever bothered to tell
me why I
needed to learn it. What is the area beneath a parabola? Who
cares?
In fact, one of the great moments of my life occurred during my
senior
5. year of high school, at the end of the first semester of Advanced
Placement
Calculus. I was working away on the final exam, admittedly less
prepared
for the exam than I ought to have been. (I had been accepted to
my first-
choice college a few weeks earlier, which had drained away
what little
motivation I had for the course.) As I stared at the final exam
questions,
they looked completely unfamiliar. I don’t mean that I was
having trouble
answering the questions. I mean that I didn’t even recognize
what was
being asked. I was no stranger to being unprepared for exams,
but, to
paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, I usually knew what I didn’t
know. This
exam looked even more Greek than usual. I flipped through the
pages of the
exam for a while and then more or less surrendered. I walked to
the front of
the classroom, where my calculus teacher, whom we’ll call
Carol Smith,
was proctoring the exam. “Mrs. Smith,” I said, “I don’t
recognize a lot of
the stuff on the test.”
Suffice it to say that Mrs. Smith did not like me a whole lot
more than I
liked her. Yes, I can now admit that I sometimes used my
limited powers as
student association president to schedule all-school assemblies
just so that
Mrs. Smith’s calculus class would be canceled. Yes, my friends
and I did
6. have flowers delivered to Mrs. Smith during class from “a
secret admirer”
just so that we could chortle away in the back of the room as
she looked
around in embarrassment. And yes, I did stop doing any
homework at all
once I got in to college.
So when I walked up to Mrs. Smith in the middle of the exam
and said
that the material did not look familiar, she was, well,
unsympathetic.
“Charles,” she said loudly, ostensibly to me but facing the rows
of desks to
make certain that the whole class could hear, “if you had
studied, the
material would look a lot more familiar.” This was a compelling
point.
So I slunk back to my desk. After a few minutes, Brian
Arbetter, a far
better calculus student than I, walked to the front of the room
and
whispered a few things to Mrs. Smith. She whispered back and
then a truly
extraordinary thing happened. “Class, I need your attention,”
Mrs. Smith
announced. “It appears that I have given you the second
semester exam by
mistake.” We were far enough into the test period that the
whole exam had
to be aborted and rescheduled.
7. I cannot fully describe my euphoria. I would go on in life to
marry a
wonderful woman. We have three healthy children. I’ve
published books
and visited places like the Taj Mahal and Angkor Wat. Still, the
day that my
calculus teacher got her comeuppance is a top five life moment.
(The fact
that I nearly failed the makeup final exam did not significantly
diminish this
wonderful life experience.)
The calculus exam incident tells you much of what you need to
know
about my relationship with mathematics—but not everything.
Curiously, I
loved physics in high school, even though physics relies very
heavily on the
very same calculus that I refused to do in Mrs. Smith’s class.
Why? Because
physics has a clear purpose. I distinctly remember my high
school physics
teacher showing us during the World Series how we could use
the basic
formula for acceleration to estimate how far a home run had
been hit. That’s
cool—and the same formula has many more socially significant
applications.
Once I arrived in college, I thoroughly enjoyed probability,
again because
it offered insight into interesting real-life situations. In
hindsight, I now
recognize that it wasn’t the math that bothered me in calculus
class; it was
that no one ever saw fit to explain the point of it. If you’re not
8. fascinated by
the elegance of formulas alone—which I am most emphatically
not—then it
is just a lot of tedious and mechanistic formulas, at least the
way it was
taught to me.
That brings me to statistics (which, for the purposes of this
book,
includes probability). I love statistics. Statistics can be used to
explain
everything from DNA testing to the idiocy of playing the
lottery. Statistics
can help us identify the factors associated with diseases like
cancer and
heart disease; it can help us spot cheating on standardized tests.
Statistics
can even help you win on game shows. There was a famous
program during
my childhood called Let’s Make a Deal, with its equally famous
host,
Monty Hall. At the end of each day’s show, a successful player
would stand
with Monty facing three big doors: Door no. 1, Door no. 2, and
Door no. 3.
Monty Hall explained to the player that there was a highly
desirable prize
behind one of the doors—something like a new car—and a goat
behind the
other two. The idea was straightforward: the player chose one of
the doors
and would get the contents behind that door.
As each player stood facing the doors with Monty Hall, he or
9. she had a 1
in 3 chance of choosing the door that would be opened to reveal
the
valuable prize. But Let’s Make a Deal had a twist, which has
delighted
statisticians ever since (and perplexed everyone else). After the
player
chose a door, Monty Hall would open one of the two remaining
doors,
always revealing a goat. For the sake of example, assume that
the player has
chosen Door no. 1. Monty would then open Door no. 3; the live
goat would
be standing there on stage. Two doors would still be closed,
nos. 1 and 2. If
the valuable prize was behind no. 1, the contestant would win;
if it was
behind no. 2, he would lose. But then things got more
interesting: Monty
would turn to the player and ask whether he would like to
change his mind
and switch doors (from no. 1 to no. 2 in this case). Remember,
both doors
were still closed, and the only new information the contestant
had received
was that a goat showed up behind one of the doors that he didn’t
pick.
Should he switch?
The answer is yes. Why? That’s in Chapter 5½.
The paradox of statistics is that they are everywhere—from
batting
averages to presidential polls—but the discipline itself has a
reputation for
being uninteresting and inaccessible. Many statistics books and
10. classes are
overly laden with math and jargon. Believe me, the technical
details are
crucial (and interesting)—but it’s just Greek if you don’t
understand the
intuition. And you may not even care about the intuition if
you’re not
convinced that there is any reason to learn it. Every chapter in
this book
promises to answer the basic question that I asked (to no effect)
of my high
school calculus teacher: What is the point of this?
This book is about the intuition. It is short on math, equations,
and
graphs; when they are used, I promise that they will have a clear
and
enlightening purpose. Meanwhile, the book is long on examples
to convince
you that there are great reasons to learn this stuff. Statistics can
be really
interesting, and most of it isn’t that difficult.
The idea for this book was born not terribly long after my
unfortunate
experience in Mrs. Smith’s AP Calculus class. I went to
graduate school to
study economics and public policy. Before the program even
started, I was
assigned (not surprisingly) to “math camp” along with the bulk
of my
classmates to prepare us for the quantitative rigors that were to
follow. For
11. three weeks, we learned math all day in a windowless, basement
classroom
(really).
On one of those days, I had something very close to a career
epiphany.
Our instructor was trying to teach us the circumstances under
which the
sum of an infinite series converges to a finite number. Stay with
me here for
a minute because this concept will become clear. (Right now
you’re
probably feeling the way I did in that windowless classroom.)
An infinite
series is a pattern of numbers that goes on forever, such as 1 +
½ + ¼ + ⅛ .
. . The three dots means that the pattern continues to infinity.
This is the part we were having trouble wrapping our heads
around. Our
instructor was trying to convince us, using some proof I’ve long
since
forgotten, that a series of numbers can go on forever and yet
still add up
(roughly) to a finite number. One of my classmates, Will
Warshauer, would
have none of it, despite the impressive mathematical proof. (To
be honest, I
was a bit skeptical myself.) How can something that is infinite
add up to
something that is finite?
Then I got an inspiration, or more accurately, the intuition of
what the
instructor was trying to explain. I turned to Will and talked him
through
12. what I had just worked out in my head. Imagine that you have
positioned
yourself exactly 2 feet from a wall.
Now move half the distance to that wall (1 foot), so that you are
left
standing 1 foot away.
From 1 foot away, move half the distance to the wall once again
(6
inches, or ½ a foot). And from 6 inches away, do it again (move
3 inches,
or ¼ of a foot). Then do it again (move 1½ inches, or ⅛ of a
foot). And so
on.
You will gradually get pretty darn close to the wall. (For
example, when
you are 1/1024th of an inch from the wall, you will move half
the distance,
or another 1/2048th of an inch.) But you will never hit the wall,
because by
definition each move takes you only half the remaining
distance. In other
words, you will get infinitely close to the wall but never hit it.
If we
measure your moves in feet, the series can be described as 1 +
½ + ¼ + ⅛ .
. .
Therein lies the insight: Even though you will continue moving
forever
—with each move taking you half the remaining distance to the
wall—the
13. total distance you travel can never be more than 2 feet, which is
your
starting distance from the wall. For mathematical purposes, the
total
distance you travel can be approximated as 2 feet, which turns
out to be
very handy for computation purposes. A mathematician would
say that the
sum of this infinite series 1 ft + ½ ft + ¼ ft + ⅛ ft . . .
converges to 2 feet,
which is what our instructor was trying to teach us that day.
The point is that I convinced Will. I convinced myself. I can’t
remember
the math proving that the sum of an infinite series can converge
to a finite
number, but I can always look that up online. And when I do, it
will
probably make sense. In my experience, the intuition makes the
math and
other technical details more understandable—but not necessarily
the other
way around.
The point of this book is to make the most important statistical
concepts
more intuitive and more accessible, not just for those of us
forced to study
them in windowless classrooms but for anyone interested in the
extraordinary power of numbers and data.
Now, having just made the case that the core tools of statistics
are less
intuitive and accessible than they ought to be, I’m going to
make a
seemingly contradictory point: Statistics can be overly
14. accessible in the
sense that anyone with data and a computer can do sophisticated
statistical
procedures with a few keystrokes. The problem is that if the
data are poor,
or if the statistical techniques are used improperly, the
conclusions can be
wildly misleading and even potentially dangerous. Consider the
following
hypothetical Internet news flash: People Who Take Short Breaks
at Work
Are Far More Likely to Die of Cancer. Imagine that headline
popping up
while you are surfing the Web. According to a seemingly
impressive study
of 36,000 office workers (a huge data set!), those workers who
reported
leaving their offices to take regular ten-minute breaks during
the workday
were 41 percent more likely to develop cancer over the next five
years than
workers who don’t leave their offices during the workday.
Clearly we need
to act on this kind of finding—perhaps some kind of national
awareness
campaign to prevent short breaks on the job.
Or maybe we just need to think more clearly about what many
workers
are doing during that ten-minute break. My professional
experience
suggests that many of those workers who report leaving their
offices for
15. short breaks are huddled outside the entrance of the building
smoking
cigarettes (creating a haze of smoke through which the rest of
us have to
walk in order to get in or out). I would further infer that it’s
probably the
cigarettes, and not the short breaks from work, that are causing
the cancer.
I’ve made up this example just so that it would be particularly
absurd, but I
can assure you that many real-life statistical abominations are
nearly this
absurd once they are deconstructed.
Statistics is like a high-caliber weapon: helpful when used
correctly and
potentially disastrous in the wrong hands. This book will not
make you a
statistical expert; it will teach you enough care and respect for
the field that
you don’t do the statistical equivalent of blowing someone’s
head off.
This is not a textbook, which is liberating in terms of the topics
that have
to be covered and the ways in which they can be explained. The
book has
been designed to introduce the statistical concepts with the most
relevance
to everyday life. How do scientists conclude that something
causes cancer?
How does polling work (and what can go wrong)? Who “lies
with
statistics,” and how do they do it? How does your credit card
company use
data on what you are buying to predict if you are likely to miss
16. a payment?
(Seriously, they can do that.)
If you want to understand the numbers behind the news and to
appreciate
the extraordinary (and growing) power of data, this is the stuff
you need to
know. In the end, I hope to persuade you of the observation first
made by
Swedish mathematician and writer Andrejs Dunkels: It’s easy to
lie with
statistics, but it’s hard to tell the truth without them.
But I have even bolder aspirations than that. I think you might
actually
enjoy statistics. The underlying ideas are fabulously interesting
and
relevant. The key is to separate the important ideas from the
arcane
technical details that can get in the way. That is Naked
Statistics.
CHAPTER 1
What’s the Point?
I’ve noticed a curious phenomenon. Students will complain that
statistics is
confusing and irrelevant. Then the same students will leave the
classroom
and happily talk over lunch about batting averages (during the
17. summer) or
the windchill factor (during the winter) or grade point averages
(always).
They will recognize that the National Football League’s “passer
rating”—a
statistic that condenses a quarterback’s performance into a
single number—
is a somewhat flawed and arbitrary measure of a quarterback’s
game day
performance. The same data (completion rate, average yards per
pass
attempt, percentage of touchdown passes per pass attempt, and
interception
rate) could be combined in a different way, such as giving
greater or lesser
weight to any of those inputs, to generate a different but equally
credible
measure of performance. Yet anyone who has watched football
recognizes
that it’s handy to have a single number that can be used to
encapsulate a
quarterback’s performance.
Is the quarterback rating perfect? No. Statistics rarely offers a
single
“right” way of doing anything. Does it provide meaningful
information in
an easily accessible way? Absolutely. It’s a nice tool for making
a quick
comparison between the performances of two quarterbacks on a
given day. I
am a Chicago Bears fan. During the 2011 playoffs, the Bears
played the
Packers; the Packers won. There are a lot of ways I could
describe that
game, including pages and pages of analysis and raw data. But
18. here is a
more succinct analysis. Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler
had a passer
rating of 31.8. In contrast, Green Bay quarterback Aaron
Rodgers had a
passer rating of 55.4. Similarly, we can compare Jay Cutler’s
performance
to that in a game earlier in the season against Green Bay, when
he had a
passer rating of 85.6. That tells you a lot of what you need to
know in order
to understand why the Bears beat the Packers earlier in the
season but lost
to them in the playoffs.
That is a very helpful synopsis of what happened on the field.
Does it
simplify things? Yes, that is both the strength and the weakness
of any
descriptive statistic. One number tells you that Jay Cutler was
outgunned by
Aaron Rodgers in the Bears’ playoff loss. On the other hand,
that number
won’t tell you whether a quarterback had a bad break, such as
throwing a
perfect pass that was bobbled by the receiver and then
intercepted, or
whether he “stepped up” on certain key plays (since every
completion is
weighted the same, whether it is a crucial third down or a
meaningless play
at the end of the game), or whether the defense was terrible.
And so on.
19. The curious thing is that the same people who are perfectly
comfortable
discussing statistics in the context of sports or the weather or
grades will
seize up with anxiety when a researcher starts to explain
something like the
Gini index, which is a standard tool in economics for measuring
income
inequality. I’ll explain what the Gini index is in a moment, but
for now the
most important thing to recognize is that the Gini index is just
like the
passer rating. It’s a handy tool for collapsing complex
information into a
single number. As such, it has the strengths of most descriptive
statistics,
namely that it provides an easy way to compare the income
distribution in
two countries, or in a single country at different points in time.
The Gini index measures how evenly wealth (or income) is
shared within
a country on a scale from zero to one. The statistic can be
calculated for
wealth or for annual income, and it can be calculated at the
individual level
or at the household level. (All of these statistics will be highly
correlated
but not identical.) The Gini index, like the passer rating, has no
intrinsic
meaning; it’s a tool for comparison. A country in which every
household
had identical wealth would have a Gini index of zero. By
contrast, a country
in which a single household held the country’s entire wealth
would have a
20. Gini index of one. As you can probably surmise, the closer a
country is to
one, the more unequal its distribution of wealth. The United
States has a
Gini index of .45, according to the Central Intelligence Agency
(a great
collector of statistics, by the way).1 So what?
Once that number is put into context, it can tell us a lot. For
example,
Sweden has a Gini index of .23. Canada’s is .32. China’s is .42.
Brazil’s is
.54. South Africa’s is .65.* As we look across those numbers,
we get a sense
of where the United States falls relative to the rest of the world
when it
comes to income inequality. We can also compare different
points in time.
The Gini index for the United States was .41 in 1997 and grew
to .45 over
the next decade. (The most recent CIA data are for 2007.) This
tells us in an
objective way that while the United States grew richer over that
period of
time, the distribution of wealth grew more unequal. Again, we
can compare
the changes in the Gini index across countries over roughly the
same time
period. Inequality in Canada was basically unchanged over the
same
stretch. Sweden has had significant economic growth over the
past two
decades, but the Gini index in Sweden actually fell from .25 in
21. 1992 to .23
in 2005, meaning that Sweden grew richer and more equal over
that period.
Is the Gini index the perfect measure of inequality? Absolutely
not—just
as the passer rating is not a perfect measure of quarterback
performance.
But it certainly gives us some valuable information on a
socially significant
phenomenon in a convenient format.
We have also slowly backed our way into answering the
question posed
in the chapter title: What is the point? The point is that
statistics helps us
process data, which is really just a fancy name for information.
Sometimes
the data are trivial in the grand scheme of things, as with sports
statistics.
Sometimes they offer insight into the nature of human
existence, as with the
Gini index.
But, as any good infomercial would point out, That’s not all!
Hal Varian,
chief economist at Google, told the New York Times that being
a statistician
will be “the sexy job” over the next decade.2 I’ll be the first to
concede that
economists sometimes have a warped definition of “sexy.” Still,
consider
the following disparate questions:
How can we catch schools that are cheating on their
standardized tests?
22. How does Netflix know what kind of movies you like?
How can we figure out what substances or behaviors cause
cancer, given
that we cannot conduct cancer-causing experiments on humans?
Does praying for surgical patients improve their outcomes?
Is there really an economic benefit to getting a degree from a
highly
selective college or university?
What is causing the rising incidence of autism?
Statistics can help answer these questions (or, we hope, can
soon). The
world is producing more and more data, ever faster and faster.
Yet, as the
New York Times has noted, “Data is merely the raw material of
knowledge.”3* Statistics is the most powerful tool we have for
using
information to some meaningful end, whether that is identifying
underrated
baseball players or paying teachers more fairly. Here is a quick
tour of how
statistics can bring meaning to raw data.
Description and Comparison
A bowling score is a descriptive statistic. So is a batting
average. Most
American sports fans over the age of five are already conversant
in the field
of descriptive statistics. We use numbers, in sports and
everywhere else in
23. life, to summarize information. How good a baseball player was
Mickey
Mantle? He was a career .298 hitter. To a baseball fan, that is a
meaningful
statement, which is remarkable when you think about it, because
it
encapsulates an eighteen-season career.4 (There is, I suppose,
something
mildly depressing about having one’s lifework collapsed into a
single
number.) Of course, baseball fans have also come to recognize
that
descriptive statistics other than batting average may better
encapsulate a
player’s value on the field.
We evaluate the academic performance of high school and
college
students by means of a grade point average, or GPA. A letter
grade is
assigned a point value; typically an A is worth 4 points, a B is
worth 3, a C
is worth 2, and so on. By graduation, when high school students
are
applying to college and college students are looking for jobs,
the grade
point average is a handy tool for assessing their academic
potential.
Someone who has a 3.7 GPA is clearly a stronger student than
someone at
the same school with a 2.5 GPA. That makes it a nice
descriptive statistic.
It’s easy to calculate, it’s easy to understand, and it’s easy to
compare across
students.
24. But it’s not perfect. The GPA does not reflect the difficulty of
the courses
that different students may have taken. How can we compare a
student with
a 3.4 GPA in classes that appear to be relatively nonchallenging
and a
student with a 2.9 GPA who has taken calculus, physics, and
other tough
subjects? I went to a high school that attempted to solve this
problem by
giving extra weight to difficult classes, so that an A in an
“honors” class
was worth five points instead of the usual four. This caused its
own
problems. My mother was quick to recognize the distortion
caused by this
GPA “fix.” For a student taking a lot of honors classes (me),
any A in a
nonhonors course, such as gym or health education, would
actually pull my
GPA down, even though it is impossible to do better than an A
in those
classes. As a result, my parents forbade me to take driver’s
education in
high school, lest even a perfect performance diminish my
chances of getting
into a competitive college and going on to write popular books.
Instead,
they paid to send me to a private driving school, at nights over
the summer.
Was that insane? Yes. But one theme of this book will be that
an
25. overreliance on any descriptive statistic can lead to misleading
conclusions,
or cause undesirable behavior. My original draft of that
sentence used the
phrase “oversimplified descriptive statistic,” but I struck the
word
“oversimplified” because it’s redundant. Descriptive statistics
exist to
simplify, which always implies some loss of nuance or detail.
Anyone
working with numbers needs to recognize as much.
Inference
How many homeless people live on the streets of Chicago? How
often do
married people have sex? These may seem like wildly different
kinds of
questions; in fact, they both can be answered (not perfectly) by
the use of
basic statistical tools. One key function of statistics is to use
the data we
have to make informed conjectures about larger questions for
which we do
not have full information. In short, we can use data from the
“known world”
to make informed inferences about the “unknown world.”
Let’s begin with the homeless question. It is expensive and
logistically
difficult to count the homeless population in a large
metropolitan area. Yet it
is important to have a numerical estimate of this population for
purposes of
providing social services, earning eligibility for state and
federal revenues,
26. and gaining congressional representation. One important
statistical practice
is sampling, which is the process of gathering data for a small
area, say, a
handful of census tracts, and then using those data to make an
informed
judgment, or inference, about the homeless population for the
city as a
whole. Sampling requires far less resources than trying to count
an entire
population; done properly, it can be every bit as accurate.
A political poll is one form of sampling. A research
organization will
attempt to contact a sample of households that are broadly
representative of
the larger population and ask them their views about a
particular issue or
candidate. This is obviously much cheaper and faster than
trying to contact
every household in an entire state or country. The polling and
research firm
Gallup reckons that a methodologically sound poll of 1,000
households will
produce roughly the same results as a poll that attempted to
contact every
household in America.
That’s how we figured out how often Americans are having sex,
with
whom, and what kind. In the mid-1990s, the National Opinion
Research
Center at the University of Chicago carried out a remarkably
27. ambitious
study of American sexual behavior. The results were based on
detailed
surveys conducted in person with a large, representative sample
of
American adults. If you read on, Chapter 10 will tell you what
they learned.
How many other statistics books can promise you that?
Assessing Risk and Other Probability-Related Events
Casinos make money in the long run—always. That does not
mean that they
are making money at any given moment. When the bells and
whistles go
off, some high roller has just won thousands of dollars. The
whole gambling
industry is built on games of chance, meaning that the outcome
of any
particular roll of the dice or turn of the card is uncertain. At the
same time,
the underlying probabilities for the relevant events—drawing 21
at
blackjack or spinning red in roulette—are known. When the
underlying
probabilities favor the casinos (as they always …
Predictably irrational
revised
28. and expanded
edition
The Hidden Forces
That Shape Our Decisions
Dan Ariely
Dedication
To my mentors, colleagues, and students—
who make research exciting
Contents
DEDICATION
INTRODUCTION
How an Injury Led Me to Irrationality and to the
Research Described Here
CHAPTER 1 - The Truth about Relativity
Why Everything Is Relative—Even When It Shouldn’t Be
CHAPTER 2 - The Fallacy of Supply and Demand
Why the Price of Pearls—and Everything Else—Is Up in the Air
CHAPTER 3 - The Cost of Zero Cost
Why We Often Pay Too Much When We Pay Nothing
29. CHAPTER 4 - The Cost of Social Norms
Why We Are Happy to Do Things, but Not When We Are Paid
to Do
Them
CHAPTER 5 - The Power of a Free Cookie
CHAPTER 6 - The Influence of Arousal
Why Hot Is Much Hotter Than We Realize
CHAPTER 7 - The Problem of Procrastination and Self-Control
Why We Can’t Make Ourselves Do What We Want to Do
CHAPTER 8 - The High Price of Ownership
Why We Overvalue What We Have
CHAPTER 9 - Keeping Doors Open
Why Options Distract Us from Our Main Objective
CHAPTER 10 - The Effect of Expectations
Why the Mind Gets What It Expects
CHAPTER 11 - The Power of Price
Why a 50-Cent Aspirin Can Do What a Penny Aspirin Can’t
CHAPTER 12 - The Cycle of Distrust
CHAPTER 13 - The Context of Our Character, Part I
Why We Are Dishonest, and What We Can Do about It
CHAPTER 14 - The Context of Our Character, Part II
Why Dealing with Cash Makes Us More Honest
30. CHAPTER 15 - Beer and Free Lunches
What Is Behavioral Economics, and Where Are the Free
Lunches?
THANKS
LIST OF COLLABORATORS
NOTES
BIBLIOGRAPHY AND ADDITIONAL READINGS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
PRAISE FOR PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL
COPYRIGHT
ABOUT THE PUBLISHER
Introduction
How an Injury Led Me to Irrationality and
to the Research Described Here
I have been told by many people that I have an unusual way of
looking at
the world. Over the last 20 years or so of my research career,
it’s enabled
me to have a lot of fun figuring out what really influences our
decisions in
daily life (as opposed to what we think, often with great
confidence,
31. influences them).
Do you know why we so often promise ourselves to diet, only to
have
the thought vanish when the dessert cart rolls by?
Do you know why we sometimes find ourselves excitedly
buying
things we don’t really need?
Do you know why we still have a headache after taking a one-
cent
aspirin, but why that same headache vanishes when the aspirin
costs 50
cents?
Do you know why people who have been asked to recall the Ten
Commandments tend to be more honest (at least immediately
afterward)
than those who haven’t? Or why honor codes actually do reduce
dishonesty
in the workplace?
By the end of this book, you’ll know the answers to these and
many
other questions that have implications for your personal life, for
your
business life, and for the way you look at the world.
Understanding the
answer to the question about aspirin, for example, has
implications not only
for your choice of drugs, but for one of the biggest issues facing
our
society: the cost and effectiveness of health insurance.
Understanding the
impact of the Ten Commandments in curbing dishonesty might
32. help prevent
the next Enron-like fraud. And understanding the dynamics of
impulsive
eating has implications for every other impulsive decision in
our lives—
including why it’s so hard to save money for a rainy day.
My goal, by the end of this book, is to help you fundamentally
rethink what makes you and the people around you tick. I hope
to lead you
there by presenting a wide range of scientific experiments,
findings, and
anecdotes that are in many cases quite amusing. Once you see
how
systematic certain mistakes are—how we repeat them again and
again—I
think you will begin to learn how to avoid some of them.
But before I tell you about my curious, practical, entertaining
(and in
some cases even delicious) research on eating, shopping, love,
money,
procrastination, beer, honesty, and other areas of life, I feel it is
important
that I tell you about the origins of my somewhat unorthodox
worldview—
and therefore of this book. Tragically, my introduction to this
arena started
with an accident many years ago that was anything but amusing.
ON WHAT WOULD otherwise have been a normal Friday
afternoon in the
life of an eighteen-year-old Israeli, everything changed
33. irreversibly in a
matter of a few seconds. An explosion of a large magnesium
flare, the kind
used to illuminate battlefields at night, left 70 percent of my
body covered
with third-degree burns.
The next three years found me wrapped in bandages in a
hospital and
then emerging into public only occasionally, dressed in a tight
synthetic suit
and mask that made me look like a crooked version of Spider-
Man. Without
the ability to participate in the same daily activities as my
friends and
family, I felt partially separated from society and as a
consequence started
to observe the very activities that were once my daily routine as
if I were an
outsider. As if I had come from a different culture (or planet), I
started
reflecting on the goals of different behaviors, mine and those of
others. For
example, I started wondering why I loved one girl but not
another, why my
daily routine was designed to be comfortable for the physicians
but not for
me, why I loved going rock climbing but not studying history,
why I cared
so much about what other people thought of me, and mostly
what it is about
life that motivates people and causes us to behave as we do.
During the years in the hospital following my accident, I had
34. extensive experience with different types of pain and a great
deal of time
between treatments and operations to reflect on it. Initially, my
daily agony
was largely played out in the “bath,” a procedure in which I was
soaked in
disinfectant solution, the bandages were removed, and the dead
particles of
skin were scraped off. When the skin is intact, disinfectants
create a low-
level sting, and in general the bandages come off easily. But
when there is
little or no skin—as in my case because of my extensive
burns—the
disinfectant stings unbearably, the bandages stick to the flesh,
and removing
them (often tearing them) hurts like nothing else I can describe.
Early on in the burn department I started talking to the nurses
who
administered my daily bath, in order to understand their
approach to my
treatment. The nurses would routinely grab hold of a bandage
and rip it off
as fast as possible, creating a relatively short burst of pain; they
would
repeat this process for an hour or so until they had removed
every one of the
bandages. Once this process was over I was covered with
ointment and with
new bandages, in order to repeat the process again the next day.
The nurses, I quickly learned, had theorized that a vigorous tug
at the
bandages, which caused a sharp spike of pain, was preferable
(to the
35. patient) to a slow pulling of the wrappings, which might not
lead to such a
severe spike of pain but would extend the treatment, and
therefore be more
painful overall. The nurses had also concluded that there was no
difference
between two possible methods: starting at the most painful part
of the body
and working their way to the least painful part; or starting at the
least
painful part and advancing to the most excruciating areas.
As someone who had actually experienced the pain of the
bandage
removal process, I did not share their beliefs (which had never
been
scientifically tested). Moreover, their theories gave no
consideration to the
amount of fear that the patient felt anticipating the treatment; to
the
difficulties of dealing with fluctuations of pain over time; to the
unpredictability of not knowing when the pain will start and
ease off; or to
the benefits of being comforted with the possibility that the pain
would be
reduced over time. But, given my helpless position, I had little
influence
over the way I was treated.
As soon as I was able to leave the hospital for a prolonged
period (I
would still return for occasional operations and treatments for
another five
years), I began studying at Tel Aviv University. During my first
36. semester, I
took a class that profoundly changed my outlook on research
and largely
determined my future. This was a class on the physiology of the
brain,
taught by professor Hanan Frenk. In addition to the fascinating
material
Professor Frenk presented about the workings of the brain, what
struck me
most about this class was his attitude to questions and
alternative theories.
Many times, when I raised my hand in class or stopped by his
office to
suggest a different interpretation of some results he had
presented, he
replied that my theory was indeed a possibility (somewhat
unlikely, but a
possibility nevertheless)—and would then challenge me to
propose an
empirical test to distinguish it from the conventional theory.
Coming up with such tests was not easy, but the idea that
science is
an empirical endeavor in which all the participants, including a
new student
like myself, could come up with alternative theories, as long as
they found
empirical ways to test these theories, opened up a new world to
me. On one
of my visits to Professor Frenk’s office, I proposed a theory
explaining how
a certain stage of epilepsy developed, and included an idea for
how one
might test it in rats.
Professor Frenk liked the idea, and for the next three months I
37. operated on about 50 rats, implanting catheters in their spinal
cords and
giving them different substances to create and reduce their
epileptic
seizures. One of the practical problems with this approach was
that the
movements of my hands were very limited, because of my
injury, and as a
consequence it was very difficult for me to operate on the rats.
Luckily for
me, my best friend, Ron Weisberg (an avid vegetarian and
animal lover),
agreed to come with me to the lab for several weekends and
help me with
the procedures—a true test of friendship if ever there was one.
In the end, it turned out that my theory was wrong, but this did
not
diminish my enthusiasm. I was able to learn something about
my theory,
after all, and even though the theory was wrong, it was good to
know this
with high certainty. I always had many questions about how
things work
and how people behave, and my new understanding—that
science provides
the tools and opportunities to examine anything I found
interesting—lured
me into the study of how people behave.
With these new tools, I focused much of my initial efforts on
understanding how we experience pain. For obvious reasons I
was most
38. concerned with such situations as the bath treatment, in which
pain must be
delivered to a patient over a long period of time. Was it
possible to reduce
the overall agony of such pain? Over the next few years I was
able to carry
out a set of laboratory experiments on myself, my friends, and
volunteers—
using physical pain induced by heat, cold water, pressure, loud
sounds, and
even the psychological pain of losing money in the stock
market—to probe
for the answers.
By the time I had finished, I realized that the nurses in the burn
unit
were kind and generous individuals (well, there was one
exception) with a
lot of experience in soaking and removing bandages, but they
still didn’t
have the right theory about what would minimize their patients’
pain. How
could they be so wrong, I wondered, considering their vast
experience?
Since I knew these nurses personally, I knew that their behavior
was not
due to maliciousness, stupidity, or neglect. Rather, they were
most likely the
victims of inherent biases in their perceptions of their patients’
pain—biases
that apparently were not altered even by their vast experience.
For these reasons, I was particularly excited when I returned to
the
burn department one morning and presented my results, in the
hope of
39. influencing the bandage removal procedures for other patients.
It turns out, I
told the nurses and physicians, that people feel less pain if
treatments (such
as removing bandages in a bath) are carried out with lower
intensity and
longer duration than if the same goal is achieved through high
intensity and
a shorter duration. In other words, I would have suffered less if
they had
pulled the bandages off slowly rather than with their quick-pull
method.
The nurses were genuinely surprised by my conclusions, but I
was
equally surprised by what Etty, my favorite nurse, had to say.
She admitted
that their understanding had been lacking and that they should
change their
methods. But she also pointed out that a discussion of the pain
inflicted in
the bath treatment should also take into account the
psychological pain that
the nurses experienced when their patients screamed in agony.
Pulling the
bandages quickly might be more understandable, she explained,
if it were
indeed the nurses’ way of shortening their own torment (and
their faces
often did reveal that they were suffering). In the end, though,
we all agreed
that the procedures should be changed, and indeed, some of the
nurses
40. followed my recommendations.
My recommendations never changed the bandage removal
process on
a greater scale (as far as I know), but the episode left a special
impression
on me. If the nurses, with all their experience, misunderstood
what
constituted reality for the patients they cared so much about,
perhaps other
people similarly misunderstand the consequences of their
behaviors and, for
that reason, repeatedly make the wrong decisions. I decided to
expand my
scope of research, from pain to the examination of cases in
which
individuals make repeated mistakes—without being able to
learn much
from their experiences.
THIS JOURNEY INTO the many ways in which we are all
irrational, then, is
what this book is about. The discipline that allows me to play
with this
subject matter is called behavioral economics, or judgment and
decision
making (JDM).
Behavioral economics is a relatively new field, one that draws
on aspects
of both psychology and economics. It has led me to study
everything from
our reluctance to save for retirement to our inability to think
clearly during
sexual arousal. It’s not just the behavior that I have tried to
understand,
41. though, but also the decision-making processes behind such
behavior—
yours, mine, and everybody else’s. Before I go on, let me try to
explain,
briefly, what behavioral economics is all about and how it is
different from
standard economics. Let me start out with a bit of Shakespeare:
What a piece of work is a man! how noble in reason! how
infinite in
faculty! in form and moving how express and admirable! in
action
how like an angel! in apprehension how like a god! The beauty
of
the world, the paragon of animals. —from Act II, scene 2, of
Hamlet
The predominant view of human nature, largely shared by
economists,
policy makers, nonprofessionals, and everyday Joes, is the one
reflected in
this quotation. Of course, this view is largely correct. Our
minds and bodies
are capable of amazing acts. We can see a ball thrown from a
distance,
instantly calculate its trajectory and impact, and then move our
body and
hands in order to catch it. We can learn new languages with
ease,
particularly as young children. We can master chess. We can
recognize
thousands of faces without confusing them. We can produce
music,
42. literature, technology, and art—and the list goes on and on.
Shakespeare is not alone in his appreciation for the human
mind. In
fact, we all think of ourselves along the lines of Shakespeare’s
depiction
(although we do realize that our neighbors, spouses, and bosses
do not
always live up to this standard). Within the domain of science,
these
assumptions about our ability for perfect reasoning have found
their way
into economics. In economics, this very basic idea, called
rationality,
provides the foundation for economic theories, predictions, and
recommendations.
From this perspective, and to the extent that we all believe in
human
rationality, we are all economists. I don’t mean that each of us
can
intuitively develop complex game-theoretical models or
understand the
generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP); rather, I
mean that we
hold the basic beliefs about human nature on which economics
is built. In
this book, when I mention the rational economic model, I refer
to the basic
assumption that most economists and many of us hold about
human nature
—the simple and compelling idea that we are capable of making
the right
decisions for ourselves.
Although a feeling of awe at the capability of humans is clearly
43. justified, there is a large difference between a deep sense of
admiration and
the assumption that our reasoning abilities are perfect. In fact,
this book is
about human irrationality—about our distance from perfection. I
believe
that recognizing where we depart from the ideal is an important
part of the
quest to truly understand ourselves, and one that promises many
practical
benefits. Understanding irrationality is important for our
everyday actions
and decisions, and for understanding how we design our
environment and
the choices it presents to us.
My further observation is that we are not only irrational, but
predictably irrational—that our irrationality happens the same
way, again
and again. Whether we are acting as consumers, businesspeople,
or policy
makers, understanding how we are predictably irrational
provides a starting
point for improving our decision making and changing the way
we live for
the better.
This leads me to the real “rub” (as Shakespeare might have
called it)
between conventional economics and behavioral economics. In
conventional economics, the assumption that we are all rational
implies
that, in everyday life, we compute the value of all the options
44. we face and
then follow the best possible path of action. What if we make a
mistake and
do something irrational? Here, too, traditional economics has an
answer:
“market forces” will sweep down on us and swiftly set us back
on the path
of righteousness and rationality. On the basis of these
assumptions, in fact,
generations of economists since Adam Smith have been able to
develop far-
reaching conclusions about everything from taxation and health-
care
policies to the pricing of goods and services.
But, as you will see in this book, we are really far less rational
than
standard economic theory assumes. Moreover, these irrational
behaviors of
ours are neither random nor senseless. They are systematic, and
since we
repeat them again and again, predictable. So, wouldn’t it make
sense to
modify standard economics, to move it away from naive
psychology (which
often fails the tests of reason, introspection, and—most
important—
empirical scrutiny)? This is exactly what the emerging field of
behavioral
economics, and this book as a small part of that enterprise, is
trying to
accomplish.
AS YOU WILL see in the pages ahead, each of the chapters in
this book is
based on a few experiments I carried out over the years with
45. some terrific
colleagues (at the end of the book, I have included short
biographies of my
amazing collaborators). Why experiments? Life is complex,
with multiple
forces simultaneously exerting their influences on us, and this
complexity
makes it difficult to figure out exactly how each of these forces
shapes our
behavior. For social scientists, experiments are like microscopes
or strobe
lights. They help us slow human behavior to a frame-by-frame
narration of
events, isolate individual forces, and examine those forces
carefully and in
more detail. They let us test directly and unambiguously what
makes us
tick.
There is one other point I want to emphasize about experiments.
If
the lessons learned in any experiment were limited to the exact
environment
of the experiment, their value would be limited. Instead, I
would like you to
think about experiments as an illustration of a general principle,
providing
insight into how we think and how we make decisions—not only
in the
context of a particular experiment but, by extrapolation, in
many contexts of
life.
In each chapter, then, I have taken a step in extrapolating the
46. findings
from the experiments to other contexts, attempting to describe
some of their
possible implications for life, business, and public policy. The
implications
I have drawn are, of course, just a partial list.
To get real value from this, and from social science in general,
it is
important that you, the reader, spend some time thinking about
how the
principles of human behavior identified in the experiments
apply to your
life. My suggestion to you is to pause at the end of each chapter
and
consider whether the principles revealed in the experiments
might make
your life better or worse, and more importantly what you could
do
differently, given your new understanding of human nature.
This is where
the real adventure lies.
And now for the journey.
CHAPTER 1
The Truth about Relativity
Why Everything Is Relative—Even
When It Shouldn’t Be
One day while browsing the World Wide Web (obviously for
47. work—not
just wasting time), I stumbled on the following ad, on the Web
site of a
magazine, the Economist.
I read these offers one at a time. The first offer—the Internet
subscription for $59—seemed reasonable. The second option—
the $125
print subscription—seemed a bit expensive, but still reasonable.
But then I read the third option: a print and Internet
subscription for
$125. I read it twice before my eye ran back to the previous
options. Who
would want to buy the print option alone, I wondered, when
both the
Internet and the print subscriptions were offered for the same
price? Now,
the print-only option may have been a typographical error, but I
suspect that
the clever people at the Economist’s London offices (and they
are clever—
and quite mischievous in a British sort of way) were actually
manipulating
me. I am pretty certain that they wanted me to skip the Internet-
only option
(which they assumed would be my choice, since I was reading
the
advertisement on the Web) and jump to the more expensive
option: Internet
and print.
48. But how could they manipulate me? I suspect it’s because the
Economist’s marketing wizards (and I could just picture them in
their school
ties and blazers) knew something important about human
behavior: humans
rarely choose things in absolute terms. We don’t have an
internal value
meter that tells us how much things are worth. Rather, we focus
on the
relative advantage of one thing over another, and estimate value
accordingly.
(For instance, we don’t know how much a six-cylinder car is
worth, but we
can assume it’s more expensive than the four-cylinder model.)
In the case of the Economist, I may not have known whether the
Internet-only subscription at $59 was a better deal than the
print-only option
at $125. But I certainly knew that the print-and-Internet option
for $125 was
better than the print-only option at $125. In fact, you could
reasonably
deduce that in the combination package, the Internet
subscription is free!
“It’s a bloody steal—go for it, governor!” I could almost hear
them shout
from the riverbanks of the Thames. And I have to admit, if I had
been
inclined to subscribe I probably would have taken the package
deal myself.
(Later, when I tested the offer on a large number of participants,
the vast
majority preferred the Internet-and-print deal.)
So what was going on here? Let me start with a fundamental
49. observation: most people don’t know what they want unless
they see it in
context. We don’t know what kind of racing bike we want—
until we see a
champ in the Tour de France ratcheting the gears on a particular
model. We
don’t know what kind of speaker system we like—until we hear
a set of
speakers that sounds better than the previous one. We don’t
even know what
we want to do with our lives—until we find a relative or a
friend who is
doing just what we think we should be doing. Everything is
relative, and
that’s the point. Like an airplane pilot landing in the dark, we
want runway
lights on either side of us, guiding us to the place where we can
touch down
our wheels.
In the case of the Economist, the decision between the Internet-
only
and print-only options would take a bit of thinking. Thinking is
difficult and
sometimes unpleasant. So the Economist’s marketers offered us
a no-
brainer: relative to the print-only option, the print-and-Internet
option looks
clearly superior.
The geniuses at the Economist aren’t the only ones who
understand
the importance of relativity. Take Sam, the television salesman.
50. He plays the
same general type of trick on us when he decides which
televisions to put
together on display:
36-inch Panasonic for $690
42-inch Toshiba for $850
50-inch Philips for $1,480
Which one would you choose? In this case, Sam knows that
customers find it difficult to compute the value of different
options. (Who
really knows if the Panasonic at $690 is a better deal than the
Philips at
$1,480?) But Sam also knows that given three choices, most
people will
take the middle choice (as in landing your plane between the
runway lights).
So guess which television Sam prices as the middle option?
That’s right—
the one he wants to sell!
Of course, Sam is not alone in his cleverness. The New York
Times ran
a story recently about Gregg Rapp, a restaurant consultant, who
gets paid to
work out the pricing for menus. He knows, for instance, how
lamb sold this
year as opposed to last year; whether lamb did better paired
with squash or
with risotto; and whether orders decreased when the price of the
main
course was hiked from $39 to $41.
One thing Rapp has learned is that high-priced entrées on the
menu
51. boost revenue for the restaurant—even if no one buys them.
Why? Because
even though people generally won’t buy the most expensive
dish on the
menu, they will order the second most expensive dish. Thus, by
creating an
expensive dish, a restaurateur can lure customers into ordering
the second
most expensive choice (which can be cleverly engineered to
deliver a higher
profit margin).1
SO LET’S RUN through the Economist’s sleight of hand in slow
motion.
As you recall, the choices were:
1. Internet-only subscription for $59.
2. Print-only subscription for $125.
3. Print-and-Internet subscription for $125.
When I gave these options to 100 students at MIT’s Sloan
School of
Management, they opted as follows:
1. Internet-only subscription for $59—16 students
2. Print-only subscription for $125—zero students
3. Print-and-Internet subscription for $125—84 students
So far these Sloan MBAs are smart cookies. They all saw the
advantage in the print-and-Internet offer over the print-only
offer. But were
they influenced by the mere presence of the print-only option
(which I will
henceforth, and for good reason, call the “decoy”). In other
52. words, suppose
that I removed the decoy so that the choices would be the ones
seen in the
figure below:
Would the students respond as before (16 for the Internet only
and 84
for the combination)?
Certainly they would react the same way, wouldn’t they? After
all, the
option I took out was one that no one selected, so it should
make no
difference. Right?
Au contraire! This time, 68 of the students chose the Internet-
only
option for $59, up from 16 before. And only 32 chose the
combination
subscription for $125, down from 84 before.*
What could have possibly changed their minds? Nothing
rational, I
assure you. It was the mere presence of the decoy that sent 84
of them to the
print-and-Internet option (and 16 to the Internet-only option).
And the
absence of the decoy had them choosing differently, with 32 for
print-and-
Internet and 68 for Internet-only.
This is not only irrational but predictably irrational as well.
Why? I’m
glad you asked.
53. LET ME OFFER you this visual demonstration of relativity.
As you can see, the middle circle can’t seem to stay the same
size.
When placed among the larger circles, it gets smaller. When
placed among
the smaller circles, it grows bigger. The middle circle is the
same size in
both positions, of course, but it appears to change depending on
what we
place next to it.
This might be a mere curiosity, but for the fact that it mirrors
the way
the mind is wired: we are always looking at the things around us
in relation
to others. We can’t help it. This holds true not only for physical
things—
toasters, bicycles, puppies, restaurant entrées, and spouses—but
for
experiences such as vacations and educational options, and for
ephemeral
things as well: emotions, attitudes, and points of view.
We always compare jobs with jobs, vacations with vacations,
lovers
with lovers, and wines with wines. All this relativity reminds
me of a line
from the film Crocodile Dundee, when a street hoodlum pulls a
switchblade
against our hero, Paul Hogan. “You call that a knife?” says
Hogan
incredulously, withdrawing a bowie blade from the back of his
54. boot. “Now
this,” he says with a sly grin, “is a knife.”
RELATIVITY IS (RELATIVELY) easy to understand. But
there’s one aspect of
relativity that consistently trips us up. It’s this: we not only
tend to compare
things with one another …
ISS305: Reading Diary Questions
Module #4
4 Total Questions
Q1: Dishonesty and the Tragedy of the Commons [40 points]
Ariely’s findings about dishonesty support the philosophical
conundrum of the “tragedy of the
commons.” First, give us a quick rundown of the tragedy of the
commons (using your own words;
it would be ironic to get dinged for academic dishonesty here).
Now find and describe an
example of the tragedy of the commons that you have
experienced in your life, or that you see
happening in the world. (Note that we also have access to
Wikipedia and the other common
examples, so do spend some time here coming up with
something that is novel/interesting) How
was this tragedy of the commons dealt with? How did the
parties respond? Was the remedy for
this tragedy of the commons effective? How might you apply
Ariely’s findings about dishonesty to
this tragedy of the commons to make the remedy more
effective?
55. Q2: Behavior Explained [40 points]
Throughout Predictably Irrational, we are presented with
research that shows us that while we
think we are in the driver’s seat of our decisions, we are “pawns
in a game whose forces we
largely fail to comprehend.” For this question, we would like
you to become a behavioral
economist. You will describe a situation where you have seen
people behave in a manner that is
irrational. Then we would like you to design an experiment
which explains this irrationality.
How will you divide participants into a control and treatment
group? What potential issues
might your experiment face? How would you overcome those
issues? And finally, while you
obviously cannot perform your experiment, what answers might
you find that explain why your
subjects behaved so irrationally?
Q3: The Power and Perils of Statistics [30 points]
In your opinion, wherein lies the greatest potential benefit of
statistical inference? That is, are the
greatest advances and gains to be made within the field of
medicine, economics, or some other
field? Why this field? Name at least one specific benefit that
your chosen field might bring in the
near future with the help of statistics, and precisely how
statistics can help. Next, wherein lies the
greatest danger of the abuse of statistical inference? That is, in
what field would such abuse have
the worst consequences? (This may be either the same field
whose potential advances you've
already discussed, or a different field.) Again, why this field?
56. Name a specific possible abuse of
statistics that you think could lead the field's research astray in
such a way as to have such
consequences.
Q4: Programmatic Self-Evaluation [40 points]
Think about the kinds of program evaluations that would relate
to your life, the comparisons that
might be made between you as you are now and certain
counterfactuals in which one of your
characteristics is changed. For example, you are most likely
seeking a college degree, but how
would certain ‘dependent variables’ – like your life expectancy
or your likely wealth at age 65 –
be changed if you weren't? Wheelan touches on this example, so
come up with two different
characteristics of your own life (ideally, the outcomes of some
of the more important decisions
that you've made in the past, like the decision to seek a degree),
and imagine yourself without
each of these characteristics (one at a time, of course, so as to
isolate the effects of each). Don't
worry about how you would design a test of the effects of each
characteristic – each ‘treatment’ –
but think about what these effects might be. What might the
significant differences be between
yourself and each of your two counterfactuals, in terms of
things like long-term health, long-term
earnings, long-term happiness, etc.? For each of your two
comparisons, make two suggestions as
to what the ‘treatment effects’ of your two real-life