1. The Pecan Street Project
Austin, Texas
Connected and Sustainable Living CUD, Seoul May 2009
Carolyn Purcell
US State and Local Government, IBSG

2. The Principals
City of Austin
Austin Energy
University of Texas
Austin Technology Incubator
Environmental Defense Fund
Chamber of Commerce
Sematech
Corporate Partners participating: Cisco, Dell, Gridpoint,
Freescale, Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, GE, Applied
Materials, Intel

3. Description of Austin Energy
Unique qualities
Texas is its own grid
“Regulated” by City of Austin and ERCOT
It’s really hot in the summer
Liberal politically
Size of service district
400,000 customer
900,000 population
Portfolio
Wind, solar, coal, gas,
nuclear, other
EE program – 25+ yrs
Revenues
$1B US
$100M to the city

4. The Vision
The Future
Bio fuels
Plug-in
H2
Energy
Information
$’s
Fossil Nuclear
Fuels
Solar Wind
Distributed Utility Zero Energy Home

5. The Goals
Defer construction of 300 MW’s of power thru DG, DSM,
EE and renewables
Develop a viable business model for future AE
Increase renewables portfolio
Establish a research consortium for new technologies
Establish Austin as a haven for emerging energy
technologies and technology companies
Consider an infrastructure for electric vehicles
Ensure a sustainable quality of life in Austin
Maintain reliability

6. The Disruptive Assumptions
Solar parity is imminent – AE can’t control the portfolio
Back-up power – reliability – wind and solar are not as
reliable as prevailing sources – utilities will remain
responsible for back-up power
Price of energy from utilities will go up (carbon trading)
Business model conundrum – how do utilities recover
costs and make money in the new environment
The law of accelerating returns
Finally, the perfect application for AI – managing
resources and traffic on the smart grid
“Prosumerism” and aggregation – possibility of
microgrids selling into a utility’s territory and further
eroding utility’s customer base
Will electric vehicles cause peak demand to skyrocket?
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1

7. What’s next?
Evaluating the 200 or so proposals from various action
teams and melding them into one or two scenarios most
likely for AE
From that scenario, an action plan that will provide a
roadmap for the next 10-15 years
In some cases, there simply isn’t enough information to
call the shot – multiple options must be delineated with a
reference to potential “tipping point” events

9. Law of Accelerating Returns
y Ray Kurzweil
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential,
contrary to the common-sense quot;intuitive linearquot; view. So we won't experience 100 years
of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).
The quot;returns,quot; such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially.
There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades,
machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological
change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The
implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-
based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the
speed of light.