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2010 2011
Revenue
Loans	and	Leases 225 197
Growth	% -12%
Securities 43 34
Growth	% -21%
Total	interest	income 268 232
Interest	expense
Deposits 50 33
Short-term	borrowing 2 1
Long-term	debt 10 7
Total	interest	expense 62 42
					Interest	Expense	Change -32%
Net	interest	income 207 190
						Margin
Noninterest	revenue
Commissions	and	fees 51 40
Lending	and	deposit-related	fees 17 15
Securities	gains	(losses) 2 2
Credit	card	income 10 12
Other	income -31 -11
Total	noninterest	revenue 49 58
					Noninterest	Revenue	Growth 18%
Total	net	revenue 256 248
Provisions	for	credit	losses 62 56
Noninterest	expenses
Compensation	and	benefits 85 85
Occupancy	expense 14 14
Tech,	communication	and	equipment 13 13
Professional	and	outside	services 4 5
Advertising	and	marketing
Amortization	of	intangibles 2 2
Other	special	charges 9 9
Other	expenses 44 49
Total	noninterest	expenses 171 177
4%
Income	(loss)	from	cont	ops	before	taxes 23 15
FIRST	COMMONWEALTH	FINANCIAL	CORP		(FCF)		INCOME	STATEMENT
Provision	(benefit)	for	taxes 0 0
					Effective	Tax	Rate 0% 0%
Net	income 23 15
9% 6%
Net	income	available	to	common	shareholders 23 15
Earnings	per	share
Diluted 0.25 0.15
					EPS	Growth -40%
Weighted	average	shares	outstanding
Diluted 93 105
Dividened	Discount	Model	
	Net	Income	per	share 0.25 0.15
Dividends	 0.05 0.12
%	Growth 130%
ROE 3.07% 1.98%
**Fiscal	year	ends	in	December.	USD	in	millions	except	per	share	data.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
187 176 171 175 182 189 198
-5% -6% -3% 2% 4% 4% 5%
32 30 29 30 30 31 32
-6% -6% -3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
219 206 202 204 212 220 230
21 16 12 7 15 26 35
1 1 2 5 4 4 3
8 5 4 3 3 2 1
30 22 19 16 22 32 39
-29% -27% -14% -18% 42% 44% 23%
189 185 184 188 190 189 191
40 42 42
15 16 16
0 -1 1
13 14 14
-4 -10 -12
65 60 61 61 65 70 73
12% -8% 2% 1% 6% 7% 4%
254 245 245 250 255 258 264
21 19 11 15 15 13 13
86 86 87 89
13 14 13 14
12 15 18 11
4 4 4 4
3 5
1 1 1 1
7 6 10
52 43 35 32
177 169 171 164 167 170 174
0% -5% 1% -4% 2% 2% 2%
56 57 62 71 73 75 77
15 15 18 21 22 22 23
27% 26% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30%
42 41 44 50 51 52 54
17% 17% 18% 20%
42 41 44 50 51 52 54
0.4 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63
167% 7% 12% 17% 6% 3% 3%
104 97 93 89 86 86 86
0.40 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63
0.18 0.23 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33 0.35
48% 24% 23% 0% 0% 17% 7%
5.63% 5.76% 6.15% 6.97% 6.13% 6.25% 6.37%
FIRST	COMMONWEALTH	FINANCIAL	CORP		 2010 2011 2012
DIVIDEND	DISCOUNT	MODEL
	Net	Income	per	share 0.25 0.15 0.4
%	Growth -40% 167%
Dividends	 0.05 0.12 0.18
%	Growth 130.3% 47.6%
Payout	Ratio 21.5% 82.5% 45.7%
PV	of	Dividends	
Terminal	Value
DDM	VALUATION
PV	of	dividends	 0.95
PV	of	Terminal	Value 6.96
Target	price	 7.92
Current	 8.92
Upside	 -11%
*	in	dollars	
Bear
Base
Bull
Weighted	average	shares	outstanding
Diluted 93 105 104
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63
7% 12% 17% 6% 3% 3%
0.23 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33 0.35
24.1% 23.3% 0.1% -0.3% 16.7% 7.1%
52.7% 58.2% 49.9% 47.1% 53.4% 55.8%
0.28 0.33 0.35
5.20
P/E	MULTIPLE	VALUTATION P/B	MULTIPLE	VALUTATION
TV	of	P/E 10.63 TV	of	P/B 1033.16
PV	of	TV 14.23 PV	of	TV 943.14
Sum	of	PV	of	Div. 0.95 Per	Share 10.97
Target	Price 15.18 Target	Price 11.92
Current	 8.92 Current	 8.92
Upside	 70% Upside	 34%
Implied	P/B	 Implied	P/E Price Upside
1 15 10 15%
1.2 16 11 25%
1.3 17 12 31%
97 93 89 86 86 86
ASSUMPTIONS
Cost	of	Equity 10.20%
Terminal	Dividend	Growth	Rate	 3.49%
Justified	P/B 1.3
Justified	P/E 17
FINAL
DDM	VAL 33%
P/B	VAL 33%
P/E	VAL 33%
Intrinsic	 12
Current	 8.92
Upside 31%
P/E P/B NMI
FCF 16.0 1.08 3.2%
HTLF 10.4 1.21 3.7%
WIBC 12.8 1.5 3.7%
LKFN 16.6 1.9 3.1%
HAFC 12.6 1.4 3.8%
CHCO 15.0 1.67 3.6%
STBA 12.4 1.11 3.7%
Industry 13.7 1.2 3%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
FCF HTLF WIBC LKFN HAFC
P/E P/B
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
HAFC CHCO STBA Industry
NMI
2010 2011
Assets
Cash	and	due	from	banks 70 75
Deposits	with	banks 0 4
Debt	securities 1017 1183
Loans 4218 4057
Allowance	for	loan	losses -71 -61
Net	loans 4147 3996
Premises	and	equipment 67 67
Goodwill 160 160
Other	intangible	assets 5 4
Other	assets 347 354
Total	assets 5813 5841
			%	Growth 0.5%
Liabilities	and	stockholders'	equity
Liabilities
Deposits 4618 4505
Short-term	borrowing 188 313
Long-term	debt 204 207
Other	liabilities 53 58
Total	liabilities 5063 5083
				%	Growth 0.4%
Stockholders'	equity
Common	stock 106 106
Additional	paid-in	capital 366 366
Retained	earnings 291 294
Treasury	stock -8 -7
Accumulated	other	comprehensive	income -2 2
Total	stockholders'	equity 750 759
					Shares	Outstanding 93 105
					Stockholders	Equity	Per	Share 8.06 7.23
Total	liabilities	and	stockholders'	equity 5813 5841
Tangible	Stockholders	Equity	(**no	prefered	stock) 585 595
%	Growth 2%
Tangible	SE	per	share	 6.29 5.67
**Fiscal	year	ends	in	December.	USD	in	millions	except	per	share	data.
FIRST	COMMONWEALTH	FINANCIAL	CORP		(FCF)	BALANCE	SHEET
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
99 74 72 67
4 3 2 3
1200 1354 1354 950
4205 4284 4460 4684
-67 -54 -52 -51
4138 4230 4408 4624
69 68 65
160 160 161 166
2 1 2
324 325 296 359
5995 6215 6360 6567 6729 6896 7067
2.6% 3.7% 2.3% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
4558 4604 4316 4196
356 627 1106 1511
280 217 162 81
55 56 61 59
5249 5503 5644 5847 6018 6195 6376
3.3% 4.8% 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
106 106 106
365 365 366
316 335 353
-42 -73 -104
1 -21 -4
746 712 716 720 746 771 795
104 97 93 89 86 86 86
7.17 7.34 7.70 8.05 8.68 8.96 9.24
5995 6215 6360 6567
584 551 553 554 746 771 795
-2% -6% 0% 0% 35% 3% 3%
5.62 5.68 5.95 6.20 8.68 8.96 9.24
2010 2011
Cash	Flows	From	Operating	Activities
Net	income 23 15
Provision	for	credit	losses 62 56
Depreciation	&	amortization 11 9
					Depreciation/Amortization	of	Overall	Revenue 3% 3%
Deferred	tax	(benefit)	expense -5 -1
Investments	(gains)	losses 9 10
Receivable 4 1
Prepaid	expenses 7 5
Payables 2 -5
Accrued	liabilities -1 -1
Interest	payable -1 -1
Income	taxes	payable 2 -5
Other	assets	and	liabilities 4 8
Other	operating	activities -5 -6
Net	cash	provided	by	operating	activities 111 84
Cash	Flows	From	Investing	Activities
Sales/maturity	of	investments 591 557
Purchases	of	investments -387 -724
Changes	in	loans,	net 335 62
Acquisitions	and	dispositions
Property,	and	equipments,	net -5 -8
Other	investing	activities 9 33
Net	cash	used	for	investing	activities 543 -80
Cash	Flows	From	Financing	Activities
Change	in	deposits 82 -113
Change	in	federal	funds	purchased -92 62
Change	in	short-term	borrowing -679 62
Long-term	debt	issued 50 30
Long-term	debt	repayment -117 -25
Common	stock	issued 88 0
Repurchases	of	treasury	stock 0 0
Cash	dividends	paid -5 -13
Other	financing	activities 0 0
Net	cash	provided	by	(used	for)	financing	activities -673 4
Net	change	in	cash -20 9
Cash	at	beginning	of	period 90 70
Cash	at	end	of	period 70 78
FIRST	COMMONWEALTH	FINANCIAL	CORP		(FCF)	Statement	of		CASH	FLOW
**Fiscal	year	ends	in	December.	USD	in	millions	except	per	share	data.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
42 41 44 50
21 19 11 15
8 11 14 8 14 16 18
3% 4% 5% 3% 5% 6% 6%
3 13 5
2 0 3
3 1 1
9
6 -1 2
-1 -1 0
-1 -1 0
6 -1 2
-11 2 -1
1 -8 1
79 86 82
577 359 376
-605 -540 -340
-162 -123 -192
-3
-10 -10 -11
29 5 6
-171 -307 -164
53 46 -288
-41 -18 -7
85 288 486
100 5
-25 -65 -60 -80 -389 -407 -426
1 0 0
-36 -33 -31
-19 -22 -26 -25 -24 -28 -30
0 0 0
117 196 79
25 -26 -3
78 103 77
103 77 75
2011 %	Total		
Commercial,	financial,	agricultural	and	other 996,739											 25%
Real	estate	construction 76,564													 2%
Residential	real	estate 1,137,059							 28%
Commerical	real	estate 1,267,432							 31%
Loans	to	individuals 565,849											 14%
Total	loans	&	leases	net	of	unearned	income 4,043,643							
Loans	and	Leases	Interest	Income 197,000
Average	Interest	Rate	 4.87%
2011
Total	Securities	 1,182,572
Total	Securities	Interest	Income 34,000
Average	Interest	Rate 2.88%
2011
Total	Interest	Bearing	Deposits 3,724,307
Total	Interest	Expense	on	Deposits 33,000
Average	Interest	Rate	 0.89%
Average	Interest	Earning	Assets 8,640
Interest-bearing	deposits	with	banks 0% 40,459
Tax-free	Investment	securities 1% 1,248,689
Taxable	Investment	Securities 21% 4,553,634
Loans,	net	of	unearned	income 78% 5,851,422
FIRST	COMMONWEALTH	FINANCIAL	CORP	LOAN	MIX
0%1%
21%
78%
Interest-
bearing
deposits with
banks
Tax-free
Investment
securities
securities
%	Growth 2012 %	Total	 %	Growth	 2013 %	Total
1,019,822							 24% 2% 1,021,056							 24%
87,438													 2% 14% 93,289													 2%
1,241,565							 30% 9% 1,262,718							 29%
1,273,661							 30% 0% 1,296,472							 30%
582,218											 14% 3% 610,298											 14%
4,204,704							 4% 4,283,833							
187,000 -5% 176,000
4.45% 4.11%
2012 2013
1,199,531 1.43% 1,353,809							
32,000 30,000
2.67% 2.22%
2012 2013
3,674,612 -1.33% 3,691,502
21,000 16,000
0.57% 0.43%
%	Growth 2014 %	Total %	Growth 2015 %	Total
0% 1,052,109							 24% 3% 1,150,906							 25%
7% 120,785											 3% 29% 220,736											 5%
2% 1,226,344							 28% -3% 1,224,465							 26%
2% 1,405,256							 32% 8% 1,479,000							 32%
5% 652,814											 15% 7% 608,643											 13%
2% 4,457,308							 4% 4,683,750							
-6% 171,000 -3% 175,000
3.84% 3.74%
2014 2015
12.86% 1,354,364 0.04% 1,333,836
29,000 30,000
2.14% 2.25%
2014 2015
0.46% 3,326,484							 -10% 3,079,205
12,000 7,000
0.36% 0.23%
C
R
R
C
L
%	Growth 2016 %	Total %Growth 2017
9% 1,199,062																										 25% 4% 1,265,474																							
83% 308,233																															 6% 40% 464,265																											
0% 1,219,036																												 25% 0% 1,204,907																							
5% 1,555,067																												 32% 5% 1,652,423																							
-7% 618,834																															 13% 2% 622,701																											
5% 4,855,670																												 4% 5,062,851																							
2% 193,563																															 10.61% 217,010																											
3.99% 4.29%
2016 2017
-1.5% 1,384,463																												 4% 1,437,012																							
34,600																																	 40,224																													
2.50% 2.80%
2016 2017
-7% 3,171,581																												 3% 3,330,160																							
15,139																																	 25,886																													
0.48% 0.78%
2015
Commercial,	financial,	agricultural	and	other25%
Real	estate	construction 5%
Residential	real	estate 26%
Commerical	real	estate 32%
Loans	to	individuals 13%
32%
%Total %Growth 2018 %	Total %	Growth
25% 6% 1,346,098																						 25% 6%
9% 51% 732,009																											 14% 58%
24% -1% 1,197,855																							 23% -1%
33% 6% 1,744,141																							 33% 6%
12% 1% 613,429																											 12% -1%
4% 5,282,537																							 4%
12.11% 239,633																											 10.42%
4.54%
2018
4% 1,491,555																							 4%
45,480																													
3.05%
2018
5% 3,596,573																							 8%
35,150																													
0.98%
24%
5%
13%
Commercial, financial,
agricultural and other
Real estate
construction
Residential real estate
26%
Commerical real estate
Loans to individuals
2011 2012 2013 2014
Charge-offs	as	a	%	of	total	loans 1.51% 0.35% 0.76% 0.31%
Income Statement Highlights2014 Q4 2015 Q4 % Change
Net Interest Margin 3.27% 3.28% 0.3%
ROA 0.71% 0.78% 10%
ROE 6.18% 6.98% 13%
Net Income 44,453 50,143 13%
Diluted Earnings per Share 0.48 0.56 17%
Key	Ratios 2011 2012 2013 2014
Return	on	average	assets 0.27 0.71 0.68 0.71
Return	on	average	equity 2 5.46 5.7 6.18
Net	loans	to	deposits	ratio 88.7 90.78 91.87 102.08
Dividends	per	share	as	a	%	of	new	income	per	share82.26 44.57 53.49 58.33
Average	equity	to	avergae	assets	ratio	 13.133 12.95 11.87 11.45
2015
0.36%
2015
0.78
6.98
110.42
50
11.23
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2015
Company First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (FCF) Analyst Name Carrie Fisher
FYE = 12/31 ($in millions) 3 Yr 5 Yr Common Sized
Income Statement Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Growth Growth 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Interest Income 293 268 232 219 206 202 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Interest Income Growth -8.5% -13.7% -5.4% -5.8% -2.0% -4.4% -7.2%
Total Interest Expense 87 62 42 30 22 19 29.6% 23.0% 18.0% 13.8% 10.5% 9.2%
Net Interest Income 207 207 190 189 185 184 70.4% 77.0% 82.0% 86.2% 89.5% 90.8%
Provision for Loan Losses 101 62 56 21 19 11 34.3% 22.9% 24.1% 9.4% 9.3% 5.5%
Net Interest Income After Provision 106 145 134 168 165 172 36.1% 54.1% 57.9% 76.9% 80.2% 85.3%
Net Interest Income Growth 37.1% -7.7% 25.6% -1.8% 4.3% 8.8% 10.2%
Non Interest Income 19 49 58 65 60 61 6.6% 18.3% 24.9% 29.9% 29.2% 30.1%
Non Interest Expense 171 171 177 177 169 171 58.4% 63.8% 76.3% 80.9% 81.8% 84.7%
Earnings Before Tax -46 23 15 57 57 62 -15.6% 8.7% 6.5% 25.8% 27.5% 30.7%
Pre-Tax Profit Growth -150.6% -35.0% 275.1% 0.3% 9.5% 60.3% -206.3%
Taxes -26 0 0 15 15 18 -8.8% 0.1% -0.2% 6.7% 7.4% 8.7%
Tax Rate 1% 26% 27% 28%
Net Income from Continuing Operations -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0%
Profit Growth -214.5% -32.7% 171.1% -1.1% 7.2% 42.2% -217.2%
Extraordinary Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net Income -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0%
Preferred Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Net Income Attributable to Common -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0%
Earnings Per Share (diluted) -0.24 0.25 0.15 0.40 0.43 0.48
EPS Growth -204.2% -40.0% 166.7% 7.5% 11.6% 47.4% -214.9% `
Dividend Per Share (diluted) 0.18 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.28
DPS Growth -66.7% 100.0% 50.0% 27.8% 21.7% 32.6% 9.2%
Dividend Payout -75.0% 24.0% 80.0% 45.0% 53.5% 58.3%
# diluted shares (in millions) 84.6 93.2 104.7 103.9 97.0 93.1
Balance Sheet Summary (Based on total assets)
Cash 89 70 75 99 74 72 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1%
Investment Securities 1,222 1,017 1,183 1,200 1,354 1,354 19.0% 17.5% 20.2% 20.0% 21.8% 21.3%
Loans Held For Sale 0 0 13 0 0 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loans-Commercial 1,208 914 997 1,020 1,021 1,052 18.7% 15.7% 17.1% 17.0% 16.4% 16.5%
Loans-Commercial Real Estate 387 1,354 1,267 1,274 1,296 1,405 6.0% 23.3% 21.7% 21.2% 20.9% 22.1%
Loans-Retail 557 561 566 582 610 653 8.6% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.8% 10.3%
Loans-Real Estate 1,209 1,127 1,137 1,242 1,263 1,226 18.8% 19.4% 19.5% 20.7% 20.3% 19.3%
Loans-Other 1,275 261 77 87 93 121 19.8% 4.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9%
Total Loans 4,637 4,218 4,044 4,205 4,284 4,457 71.9% 72.6% 69.2% 70.1% 68.9% 70.1%
Allowance for Loan Losses 82 71 61 67 54 52 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%
Net Loans 4,555 4,147 3,982 4,138 4,230 4,405 70.7% 71.3% 68.2% 69.0% 68.1% 69.3%
Loan Growth -9.0% -4.0% 3.9% 2.2% 4.2%
Allowance/Gross Loans 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2%
Fixed Assets 71 67 67 69 68 65 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0%
Intangibles 167 165 164 162 161 163 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%
Total Assets 6,446 5,813 5,841 5,995 6,215 6,360 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Deposits 4,536 4,618 4,505 4,558 4,604 4,316 70.4% 79.4% 77.1% 76.0% 74.1% 67.9%
Fed Funds Purchased 1,678 105 41 128 43 42 26.0% 1.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7%
Debt 1,233 392 520 636 843 1,268 19.1% 6.7% 8.9% 10.6% 13.6% 19.9%
Total Liabilities 5,807 5,063 5,083 5,249 5,503 5,644 90.1% 87.1% 87.0% 87.6% 88.5% 88.7%
Shareholders Equity 639 750 759 746 712 716 9.9% 12.9% 13.0% 12.4% 11.5% 11.3%
Total Liabilities and Equity 6,446 5,813 5,841 5,995 6,215 6,360 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Book Value per Share 7.55 8.04 7.24 7.18 7.34 7.69
Book Value Growth 6.5% -9.9% -0.9% 2.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.4%
Cash Flow Summary (Based on revenue)
Operating Cash Flow 57 111 84 79 86 82 -0.8% 7.5% 19.5% 41.3% 36.3% 35.9% 41.5% 40.6%
OCF Growth 93.7% -24.1% -6.4% 8.9% -4.2%
OCF/Net Income -2.9 4.8 5.4 1.9 2.1 1.8
Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Depreciation+Amortization 10 11 9 8 11 14 3.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 5.4% 6.8%
Acquisitions Purchased with Cash 0 0 0 0 0 3
Dividends 30 5 13 19 22 26 Debt
Stock Repurchase 0 0 0 36 33 31 Maturities $ %
Stock Issuance 0 88 0 1 0 0 2015 1,258.15 99%
Net Charge-Offs (see notes) 72 72 66 15 32 13 2015 0.56 0%
Non-Performing Loans (see notes) 149 117 112 108 59 55 2016 0.59 0%
Ratios 2017 0.61 0%
ROA -0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2018 0.63 0%
ROE -3.1% 3.1% 2.0% 5.6% 5.8% 6.2% After 6.931 1%
Profit Margin (NI/S) -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Total Debt 1,267.46 100.0%
Asset Turnover (S/A) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Leverage (A/E) 10.1 7.8 7.7 8.0 8.7 8.9
Debt to Equity 9.1 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.9
Times Interest Earned -1.4 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.0
Loan/Deposit 1.00 0.90 0.88 0.91 0.92 1.02
Charge-Off/Allowance 87.8% 101.0% 107.5% 21.7% 59.4% 25.7%
NPL/Allowance 182.0% 164.9% 183.2% 160.1% 109.5% 106.1%
Tangible Common Equity 471 584 595 584 550 553
Tier 1 Capital 365 397 400 421 440 459 Version 3 (1/15/2016)

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Carolyn Fisher, FCF DDM Model UPDATED

  • 1. 2010 2011 Revenue Loans and Leases 225 197 Growth % -12% Securities 43 34 Growth % -21% Total interest income 268 232 Interest expense Deposits 50 33 Short-term borrowing 2 1 Long-term debt 10 7 Total interest expense 62 42 Interest Expense Change -32% Net interest income 207 190 Margin Noninterest revenue Commissions and fees 51 40 Lending and deposit-related fees 17 15 Securities gains (losses) 2 2 Credit card income 10 12 Other income -31 -11 Total noninterest revenue 49 58 Noninterest Revenue Growth 18% Total net revenue 256 248 Provisions for credit losses 62 56 Noninterest expenses Compensation and benefits 85 85 Occupancy expense 14 14 Tech, communication and equipment 13 13 Professional and outside services 4 5 Advertising and marketing Amortization of intangibles 2 2 Other special charges 9 9 Other expenses 44 49 Total noninterest expenses 171 177 4% Income (loss) from cont ops before taxes 23 15 FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP (FCF) INCOME STATEMENT
  • 2. Provision (benefit) for taxes 0 0 Effective Tax Rate 0% 0% Net income 23 15 9% 6% Net income available to common shareholders 23 15 Earnings per share Diluted 0.25 0.15 EPS Growth -40% Weighted average shares outstanding Diluted 93 105 Dividened Discount Model Net Income per share 0.25 0.15 Dividends 0.05 0.12 % Growth 130% ROE 3.07% 1.98% **Fiscal year ends in December. USD in millions except per share data.
  • 3. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 187 176 171 175 182 189 198 -5% -6% -3% 2% 4% 4% 5% 32 30 29 30 30 31 32 -6% -6% -3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 219 206 202 204 212 220 230 21 16 12 7 15 26 35 1 1 2 5 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 3 2 1 30 22 19 16 22 32 39 -29% -27% -14% -18% 42% 44% 23% 189 185 184 188 190 189 191 40 42 42 15 16 16 0 -1 1 13 14 14 -4 -10 -12 65 60 61 61 65 70 73 12% -8% 2% 1% 6% 7% 4% 254 245 245 250 255 258 264 21 19 11 15 15 13 13 86 86 87 89 13 14 13 14 12 15 18 11 4 4 4 4 3 5 1 1 1 1 7 6 10 52 43 35 32 177 169 171 164 167 170 174 0% -5% 1% -4% 2% 2% 2% 56 57 62 71 73 75 77
  • 4. 15 15 18 21 22 22 23 27% 26% 29% 29% 30% 30% 30% 42 41 44 50 51 52 54 17% 17% 18% 20% 42 41 44 50 51 52 54 0.4 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63 167% 7% 12% 17% 6% 3% 3% 104 97 93 89 86 86 86 0.40 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63 0.18 0.23 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33 0.35 48% 24% 23% 0% 0% 17% 7% 5.63% 5.76% 6.15% 6.97% 6.13% 6.25% 6.37%
  • 5. FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP 2010 2011 2012 DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL Net Income per share 0.25 0.15 0.4 % Growth -40% 167% Dividends 0.05 0.12 0.18 % Growth 130.3% 47.6% Payout Ratio 21.5% 82.5% 45.7% PV of Dividends Terminal Value DDM VALUATION PV of dividends 0.95 PV of Terminal Value 6.96 Target price 7.92 Current 8.92 Upside -11% * in dollars Bear Base Bull Weighted average shares outstanding Diluted 93 105 104
  • 6. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.43 0.48 0.56 0.59 0.61 0.63 7% 12% 17% 6% 3% 3% 0.23 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.33 0.35 24.1% 23.3% 0.1% -0.3% 16.7% 7.1% 52.7% 58.2% 49.9% 47.1% 53.4% 55.8% 0.28 0.33 0.35 5.20 P/E MULTIPLE VALUTATION P/B MULTIPLE VALUTATION TV of P/E 10.63 TV of P/B 1033.16 PV of TV 14.23 PV of TV 943.14 Sum of PV of Div. 0.95 Per Share 10.97 Target Price 15.18 Target Price 11.92 Current 8.92 Current 8.92 Upside 70% Upside 34% Implied P/B Implied P/E Price Upside 1 15 10 15% 1.2 16 11 25% 1.3 17 12 31% 97 93 89 86 86 86
  • 7. ASSUMPTIONS Cost of Equity 10.20% Terminal Dividend Growth Rate 3.49% Justified P/B 1.3 Justified P/E 17 FINAL DDM VAL 33% P/B VAL 33% P/E VAL 33% Intrinsic 12 Current 8.92 Upside 31%
  • 8. P/E P/B NMI FCF 16.0 1.08 3.2% HTLF 10.4 1.21 3.7% WIBC 12.8 1.5 3.7% LKFN 16.6 1.9 3.1% HAFC 12.6 1.4 3.8% CHCO 15.0 1.67 3.6% STBA 12.4 1.11 3.7% Industry 13.7 1.2 3%
  • 11. 2010 2011 Assets Cash and due from banks 70 75 Deposits with banks 0 4 Debt securities 1017 1183 Loans 4218 4057 Allowance for loan losses -71 -61 Net loans 4147 3996 Premises and equipment 67 67 Goodwill 160 160 Other intangible assets 5 4 Other assets 347 354 Total assets 5813 5841 % Growth 0.5% Liabilities and stockholders' equity Liabilities Deposits 4618 4505 Short-term borrowing 188 313 Long-term debt 204 207 Other liabilities 53 58 Total liabilities 5063 5083 % Growth 0.4% Stockholders' equity Common stock 106 106 Additional paid-in capital 366 366 Retained earnings 291 294 Treasury stock -8 -7 Accumulated other comprehensive income -2 2 Total stockholders' equity 750 759 Shares Outstanding 93 105 Stockholders Equity Per Share 8.06 7.23 Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 5813 5841 Tangible Stockholders Equity (**no prefered stock) 585 595 % Growth 2% Tangible SE per share 6.29 5.67 **Fiscal year ends in December. USD in millions except per share data. FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP (FCF) BALANCE SHEET
  • 12. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 99 74 72 67 4 3 2 3 1200 1354 1354 950 4205 4284 4460 4684 -67 -54 -52 -51 4138 4230 4408 4624 69 68 65 160 160 161 166 2 1 2 324 325 296 359 5995 6215 6360 6567 6729 6896 7067 2.6% 3.7% 2.3% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 4558 4604 4316 4196 356 627 1106 1511 280 217 162 81 55 56 61 59 5249 5503 5644 5847 6018 6195 6376 3.3% 4.8% 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 106 106 106 365 365 366 316 335 353 -42 -73 -104 1 -21 -4 746 712 716 720 746 771 795 104 97 93 89 86 86 86 7.17 7.34 7.70 8.05 8.68 8.96 9.24 5995 6215 6360 6567 584 551 553 554 746 771 795 -2% -6% 0% 0% 35% 3% 3% 5.62 5.68 5.95 6.20 8.68 8.96 9.24
  • 13. 2010 2011 Cash Flows From Operating Activities Net income 23 15 Provision for credit losses 62 56 Depreciation & amortization 11 9 Depreciation/Amortization of Overall Revenue 3% 3% Deferred tax (benefit) expense -5 -1 Investments (gains) losses 9 10 Receivable 4 1 Prepaid expenses 7 5 Payables 2 -5 Accrued liabilities -1 -1 Interest payable -1 -1 Income taxes payable 2 -5 Other assets and liabilities 4 8 Other operating activities -5 -6 Net cash provided by operating activities 111 84 Cash Flows From Investing Activities Sales/maturity of investments 591 557 Purchases of investments -387 -724 Changes in loans, net 335 62 Acquisitions and dispositions Property, and equipments, net -5 -8 Other investing activities 9 33 Net cash used for investing activities 543 -80 Cash Flows From Financing Activities Change in deposits 82 -113 Change in federal funds purchased -92 62 Change in short-term borrowing -679 62 Long-term debt issued 50 30 Long-term debt repayment -117 -25 Common stock issued 88 0 Repurchases of treasury stock 0 0 Cash dividends paid -5 -13 Other financing activities 0 0 Net cash provided by (used for) financing activities -673 4 Net change in cash -20 9 Cash at beginning of period 90 70 Cash at end of period 70 78 FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP (FCF) Statement of CASH FLOW
  • 15. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 42 41 44 50 21 19 11 15 8 11 14 8 14 16 18 3% 4% 5% 3% 5% 6% 6% 3 13 5 2 0 3 3 1 1 9 6 -1 2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 6 -1 2 -11 2 -1 1 -8 1 79 86 82 577 359 376 -605 -540 -340 -162 -123 -192 -3 -10 -10 -11 29 5 6 -171 -307 -164 53 46 -288 -41 -18 -7 85 288 486 100 5 -25 -65 -60 -80 -389 -407 -426 1 0 0 -36 -33 -31 -19 -22 -26 -25 -24 -28 -30 0 0 0 117 196 79 25 -26 -3 78 103 77 103 77 75
  • 16.
  • 17. 2011 % Total Commercial, financial, agricultural and other 996,739 25% Real estate construction 76,564 2% Residential real estate 1,137,059 28% Commerical real estate 1,267,432 31% Loans to individuals 565,849 14% Total loans & leases net of unearned income 4,043,643 Loans and Leases Interest Income 197,000 Average Interest Rate 4.87% 2011 Total Securities 1,182,572 Total Securities Interest Income 34,000 Average Interest Rate 2.88% 2011 Total Interest Bearing Deposits 3,724,307 Total Interest Expense on Deposits 33,000 Average Interest Rate 0.89% Average Interest Earning Assets 8,640 Interest-bearing deposits with banks 0% 40,459 Tax-free Investment securities 1% 1,248,689 Taxable Investment Securities 21% 4,553,634 Loans, net of unearned income 78% 5,851,422 FIRST COMMONWEALTH FINANCIAL CORP LOAN MIX 0%1% 21% 78% Interest- bearing deposits with banks Tax-free Investment securities
  • 19. % Growth 2012 % Total % Growth 2013 % Total 1,019,822 24% 2% 1,021,056 24% 87,438 2% 14% 93,289 2% 1,241,565 30% 9% 1,262,718 29% 1,273,661 30% 0% 1,296,472 30% 582,218 14% 3% 610,298 14% 4,204,704 4% 4,283,833 187,000 -5% 176,000 4.45% 4.11% 2012 2013 1,199,531 1.43% 1,353,809 32,000 30,000 2.67% 2.22% 2012 2013 3,674,612 -1.33% 3,691,502 21,000 16,000 0.57% 0.43%
  • 20.
  • 21. % Growth 2014 % Total % Growth 2015 % Total 0% 1,052,109 24% 3% 1,150,906 25% 7% 120,785 3% 29% 220,736 5% 2% 1,226,344 28% -3% 1,224,465 26% 2% 1,405,256 32% 8% 1,479,000 32% 5% 652,814 15% 7% 608,643 13% 2% 4,457,308 4% 4,683,750 -6% 171,000 -3% 175,000 3.84% 3.74% 2014 2015 12.86% 1,354,364 0.04% 1,333,836 29,000 30,000 2.14% 2.25% 2014 2015 0.46% 3,326,484 -10% 3,079,205 12,000 7,000 0.36% 0.23% C R R C L
  • 22.
  • 23. % Growth 2016 % Total %Growth 2017 9% 1,199,062 25% 4% 1,265,474 83% 308,233 6% 40% 464,265 0% 1,219,036 25% 0% 1,204,907 5% 1,555,067 32% 5% 1,652,423 -7% 618,834 13% 2% 622,701 5% 4,855,670 4% 5,062,851 2% 193,563 10.61% 217,010 3.99% 4.29% 2016 2017 -1.5% 1,384,463 4% 1,437,012 34,600 40,224 2.50% 2.80% 2016 2017 -7% 3,171,581 3% 3,330,160 15,139 25,886 0.48% 0.78% 2015 Commercial, financial, agricultural and other25% Real estate construction 5% Residential real estate 26% Commerical real estate 32% Loans to individuals 13% 32%
  • 24.
  • 25. %Total %Growth 2018 % Total % Growth 25% 6% 1,346,098 25% 6% 9% 51% 732,009 14% 58% 24% -1% 1,197,855 23% -1% 33% 6% 1,744,141 33% 6% 12% 1% 613,429 12% -1% 4% 5,282,537 4% 12.11% 239,633 10.42% 4.54% 2018 4% 1,491,555 4% 45,480 3.05% 2018 5% 3,596,573 8% 35,150 0.98% 24% 5% 13% Commercial, financial, agricultural and other Real estate construction Residential real estate
  • 27. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Charge-offs as a % of total loans 1.51% 0.35% 0.76% 0.31% Income Statement Highlights2014 Q4 2015 Q4 % Change Net Interest Margin 3.27% 3.28% 0.3% ROA 0.71% 0.78% 10% ROE 6.18% 6.98% 13% Net Income 44,453 50,143 13% Diluted Earnings per Share 0.48 0.56 17% Key Ratios 2011 2012 2013 2014 Return on average assets 0.27 0.71 0.68 0.71 Return on average equity 2 5.46 5.7 6.18 Net loans to deposits ratio 88.7 90.78 91.87 102.08 Dividends per share as a % of new income per share82.26 44.57 53.49 58.33 Average equity to avergae assets ratio 13.133 12.95 11.87 11.45
  • 29. 2015
  • 30. Company First Commonwealth Financial Corp. (FCF) Analyst Name Carrie Fisher FYE = 12/31 ($in millions) 3 Yr 5 Yr Common Sized Income Statement Summary 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Growth Growth 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Interest Income 293 268 232 219 206 202 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Interest Income Growth -8.5% -13.7% -5.4% -5.8% -2.0% -4.4% -7.2% Total Interest Expense 87 62 42 30 22 19 29.6% 23.0% 18.0% 13.8% 10.5% 9.2% Net Interest Income 207 207 190 189 185 184 70.4% 77.0% 82.0% 86.2% 89.5% 90.8% Provision for Loan Losses 101 62 56 21 19 11 34.3% 22.9% 24.1% 9.4% 9.3% 5.5% Net Interest Income After Provision 106 145 134 168 165 172 36.1% 54.1% 57.9% 76.9% 80.2% 85.3% Net Interest Income Growth 37.1% -7.7% 25.6% -1.8% 4.3% 8.8% 10.2% Non Interest Income 19 49 58 65 60 61 6.6% 18.3% 24.9% 29.9% 29.2% 30.1% Non Interest Expense 171 171 177 177 169 171 58.4% 63.8% 76.3% 80.9% 81.8% 84.7% Earnings Before Tax -46 23 15 57 57 62 -15.6% 8.7% 6.5% 25.8% 27.5% 30.7% Pre-Tax Profit Growth -150.6% -35.0% 275.1% 0.3% 9.5% 60.3% -206.3% Taxes -26 0 0 15 15 18 -8.8% 0.1% -0.2% 6.7% 7.4% 8.7% Tax Rate 1% 26% 27% 28% Net Income from Continuing Operations -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Profit Growth -214.5% -32.7% 171.1% -1.1% 7.2% 42.2% -217.2% Extraordinary Income/(Expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Income -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Preferred Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net Income Attributable to Common -20 23 15 42 41 44 -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Earnings Per Share (diluted) -0.24 0.25 0.15 0.40 0.43 0.48 EPS Growth -204.2% -40.0% 166.7% 7.5% 11.6% 47.4% -214.9% ` Dividend Per Share (diluted) 0.18 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.28 DPS Growth -66.7% 100.0% 50.0% 27.8% 21.7% 32.6% 9.2% Dividend Payout -75.0% 24.0% 80.0% 45.0% 53.5% 58.3% # diluted shares (in millions) 84.6 93.2 104.7 103.9 97.0 93.1 Balance Sheet Summary (Based on total assets) Cash 89 70 75 99 74 72 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% Investment Securities 1,222 1,017 1,183 1,200 1,354 1,354 19.0% 17.5% 20.2% 20.0% 21.8% 21.3% Loans Held For Sale 0 0 13 0 0 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Loans-Commercial 1,208 914 997 1,020 1,021 1,052 18.7% 15.7% 17.1% 17.0% 16.4% 16.5% Loans-Commercial Real Estate 387 1,354 1,267 1,274 1,296 1,405 6.0% 23.3% 21.7% 21.2% 20.9% 22.1% Loans-Retail 557 561 566 582 610 653 8.6% 9.7% 9.7% 9.7% 9.8% 10.3% Loans-Real Estate 1,209 1,127 1,137 1,242 1,263 1,226 18.8% 19.4% 19.5% 20.7% 20.3% 19.3% Loans-Other 1,275 261 77 87 93 121 19.8% 4.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% Total Loans 4,637 4,218 4,044 4,205 4,284 4,457 71.9% 72.6% 69.2% 70.1% 68.9% 70.1% Allowance for Loan Losses 82 71 61 67 54 52 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% Net Loans 4,555 4,147 3,982 4,138 4,230 4,405 70.7% 71.3% 68.2% 69.0% 68.1% 69.3% Loan Growth -9.0% -4.0% 3.9% 2.2% 4.2% Allowance/Gross Loans 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% Fixed Assets 71 67 67 69 68 65 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% Intangibles 167 165 164 162 161 163 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% Total Assets 6,446 5,813 5,841 5,995 6,215 6,360 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Deposits 4,536 4,618 4,505 4,558 4,604 4,316 70.4% 79.4% 77.1% 76.0% 74.1% 67.9% Fed Funds Purchased 1,678 105 41 128 43 42 26.0% 1.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% Debt 1,233 392 520 636 843 1,268 19.1% 6.7% 8.9% 10.6% 13.6% 19.9% Total Liabilities 5,807 5,063 5,083 5,249 5,503 5,644 90.1% 87.1% 87.0% 87.6% 88.5% 88.7% Shareholders Equity 639 750 759 746 712 716 9.9% 12.9% 13.0% 12.4% 11.5% 11.3% Total Liabilities and Equity 6,446 5,813 5,841 5,995 6,215 6,360 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Book Value per Share 7.55 8.04 7.24 7.18 7.34 7.69 Book Value Growth 6.5% -9.9% -0.9% 2.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.4% Cash Flow Summary (Based on revenue) Operating Cash Flow 57 111 84 79 86 82 -0.8% 7.5% 19.5% 41.3% 36.3% 35.9% 41.5% 40.6% OCF Growth 93.7% -24.1% -6.4% 8.9% -4.2% OCF/Net Income -2.9 4.8 5.4 1.9 2.1 1.8 Amortization 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Depreciation+Amortization 10 11 9 8 11 14 3.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 5.4% 6.8% Acquisitions Purchased with Cash 0 0 0 0 0 3 Dividends 30 5 13 19 22 26 Debt Stock Repurchase 0 0 0 36 33 31 Maturities $ % Stock Issuance 0 88 0 1 0 0 2015 1,258.15 99% Net Charge-Offs (see notes) 72 72 66 15 32 13 2015 0.56 0% Non-Performing Loans (see notes) 149 117 112 108 59 55 2016 0.59 0% Ratios 2017 0.61 0% ROA -0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2018 0.63 0% ROE -3.1% 3.1% 2.0% 5.6% 5.8% 6.2% After 6.931 1% Profit Margin (NI/S) -6.8% 8.6% 6.7% 19.2% 20.1% 22.0% Total Debt 1,267.46 100.0% Asset Turnover (S/A) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Leverage (A/E) 10.1 7.8 7.7 8.0 8.7 8.9 Debt to Equity 9.1 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.7 7.9 Times Interest Earned -1.4 1.5 1.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 Loan/Deposit 1.00 0.90 0.88 0.91 0.92 1.02 Charge-Off/Allowance 87.8% 101.0% 107.5% 21.7% 59.4% 25.7% NPL/Allowance 182.0% 164.9% 183.2% 160.1% 109.5% 106.1% Tangible Common Equity 471 584 595 584 550 553 Tier 1 Capital 365 397 400 421 440 459 Version 3 (1/15/2016)