Ashua Handa (UNC) presented long-term evidence of the impact of cash transfers in Zambia at Oxford’s Center for the Study of African Economies Conference in March 2019.
The Impact Social Cash Transfers in ZambiaMichelle Mills
This document summarizes the results of randomized controlled trials evaluating the impact of two social cash transfer programs in Zambia: the Child Grant Program (CGP) and the Multiple Category Targeted Program (MCTG). The studies found that the cash transfers significantly increased food consumption and security, total consumption, livestock ownership, and economic activity without increasing fertility. However, impacts on child health and nutrition were limited by lack of access to quality health and social services. While the cash did not create dependency, the transfer amount of K70 may not be enough to permanently lift households out of poverty on its own. Overall, the cash transfers had multiplier effects and improved living standards without changing behaviors but could be enhanced by improving access to other services
More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor: Improving access to critical an...ILRI
This document summarizes discussions from a planning meeting for the CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish. The program aims to improve access to animal-source foods like meat, milk and fish for poor populations. Key points discussed include:
- Defining intermediate development outcomes and targets for improving income, productivity and equitable benefits for small-scale producers, especially women.
- Taking a value chain approach to address the whole system from inputs to consumers and design large-scale interventions with partners.
- Recognizing challenges in forming integrated teams across centers but also the opportunities for more meaningful, long-term research partnerships and impact.
- The need to focus efforts on a limited number of target value chains and
This document summarizes the results of social protection programs in Africa that aim to reduce poverty through cash transfers. It finds that:
1) Government-run non-contributory cash transfer programs in Africa have tripled over the last 15 years, though overall coverage of social protection remains low.
2) Evaluations of cash transfer programs in 10 African countries find they significantly reduce poverty, improve food security and nutrition, increase spending on education and healthcare, and boost asset accumulation.
3) Cash transfers are found to have multiplier effects, stimulating broader economic activity at household and community levels without increasing inflation.
The Impact Social Cash Transfers in ZambiaMichelle Mills
This document summarizes the results of randomized controlled trials evaluating the impact of two social cash transfer programs in Zambia: the Child Grant Program (CGP) and the Multiple Category Targeted Program (MCTG). The studies found that the cash transfers significantly increased food consumption and security, total consumption, livestock ownership, and economic activity without increasing fertility. However, impacts on child health and nutrition were limited by lack of access to quality health and social services. While the cash did not create dependency, the transfer amount of K70 may not be enough to permanently lift households out of poverty on its own. Overall, the cash transfers had multiplier effects and improved living standards without changing behaviors but could be enhanced by improving access to other services
More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor: Improving access to critical an...ILRI
This document summarizes discussions from a planning meeting for the CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish. The program aims to improve access to animal-source foods like meat, milk and fish for poor populations. Key points discussed include:
- Defining intermediate development outcomes and targets for improving income, productivity and equitable benefits for small-scale producers, especially women.
- Taking a value chain approach to address the whole system from inputs to consumers and design large-scale interventions with partners.
- Recognizing challenges in forming integrated teams across centers but also the opportunities for more meaningful, long-term research partnerships and impact.
- The need to focus efforts on a limited number of target value chains and
This document summarizes the results of social protection programs in Africa that aim to reduce poverty through cash transfers. It finds that:
1) Government-run non-contributory cash transfer programs in Africa have tripled over the last 15 years, though overall coverage of social protection remains low.
2) Evaluations of cash transfer programs in 10 African countries find they significantly reduce poverty, improve food security and nutrition, increase spending on education and healthcare, and boost asset accumulation.
3) Cash transfers are found to have multiplier effects, stimulating broader economic activity at household and community levels without increasing inflation.
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The document provides findings from a study on livelihood profiles and graduation pathways of households participating in Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). Key findings include:
1) Access to PSNP and timely transfers vary between regions, with improvements seen in Tigray but declines in Oromia.
2) Graduation outcomes are mixed, with some households graduating without readiness. Appeal systems are underutilized due to lack of confidence.
3) Constraints to graduation include low wages, delayed payments, insufficient credit access. Market challenges like price fluctuations also hinder livelihood improvement.
4) Recommendations focus on ensuring full family coverage, timely payments, addressing constraints through coordinated interventions,
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Community Health Financing: Lessons from EthiopiaHFG Project
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Can unconditional cash transfers lead to sustainable poverty reduction?Michelle Mills
This document summarizes evidence from evaluations of two unconditional cash transfer programs in Zambia called the Child Grant Program (CGP) and the Multiple Category Targeting Program (MCP). The evaluations found:
1) Both programs led to increases in consumption, food security, asset ownership, income, and reductions in poverty and debt.
2) Impacts were found across various domains of well-being and were sustained over time, suggesting cash transfers can reduce poverty in a sustainable way.
3) The effects were similar for different types of households, showing the programs' benefits extended broadly.
The document is an investor presentation for Five Star Senior Living from January 2017. It highlights Five Star as one of the largest senior living operators in the US, with a focus on private pay revenues. It also notes several growth opportunities through both internal initiatives and external expansion. Overall, the presentation provides an overview of Five Star's business and a positive outlook as an investment opportunity.
Margarita beneke conditional cash transfers and rural development in latin am...UNDP Policy Centre
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Can Labour-constrained Households Graduate? Evidence from Two Studies in MalawiThe Transfer Project
Two studies in Malawi examined the long-term impacts of a Social Cash Transfer Program (SCTP). A 2013-2021 follow-up of early-entry and late-entry households found that while the early-entry households initially benefited more, the groups converged over time as the late-entry households caught up. A new 2022 baseline included households that exited the program, continuing beneficiaries, and new beneficiaries. While exited households had higher scores on measures like housing quality, they were still supporting orphans and elderly. Comparing exiting and continuing households found similar levels of non-farm enterprise engagement despite differences in screening scores. In sum, exiting the program may not truly reflect graduation from ultra-poverty.
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1) An agenda for speakers to discuss Cashpor's investor perspective and a presentation by the Cashpor MD.
2) Background on Cashpor, including its vision, mission, clients served, locations, and social services provided like health education.
3) Cashpor's methods for tracking social impact, including client surveys, measuring movement out of poverty, and evaluating the usefulness of their health education programs. Issues like sampling methodology and data disaggregation are also discussed.
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Highlights from Phase Three include:
Low income Londoners are becoming less financially resilient. The proportion of Londoners with low financial resilience has grown by 20% in the last two years, and will continue to grow through to 2020
Employment helps build financial resilience. Employment is the main driver of people improving their financial resilience; for people affected, welfare reforms are a driver of lower resilience, but they don’t tell the full story
Living standards fluctuate. Over two years a quarter of low income households in work lost their job at least once; improving job stability can help build resilience
The future isn’t bright. Londoners on low incomes face a bleak future with an average drop in their disposable income of £100 p/w if rents and other livings costs continue to rise as expected.
For more information visit www.policyinpractice.co.uk/low-income-Londoners, email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk or call 0330 088 9242.
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Learning is a critical part of the HRITF RBF portfolio, with all programs benefiting from an embedded impact evaluation and in some cases, complemented by qualitative research components such as process evaluation studies. The presentation discusses the following topics:
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The document discusses a study on the effects of unconditional cash transfers on labor supply in Zambia. It finds that cash transfers led to a reduction in wage labor but an increase in own farm labor, with the effects being significant at relatively lower/higher transfer levels. Instrumental variable estimates using time to collect transfers and average community transfer size yielded similar results. The study concludes that cash transfers can have incentive effects on labor supply but disincentives are only seen at transfer levels well above actual amounts received.
Ashu Handa's (UNC) presentation at the Centre of Excellence for Development Impact and Learning's (CEDIL) project design clinic held in Oxford (UK) on 26 February 2020.
AACO's Annual Client Services Unit, Housing, and Quality Management PresentationOffice of HIV Planning
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Using Evidence to Inform Program Reform in the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Pr...The Transfer Project
The document discusses policy options for strengthening the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Program's approach to addressing lifecycle vulnerabilities. It summarizes that:
1) While the program indirectly reaches vulnerable groups like the elderly, disabled, and female-headed households, children under 5 are not directly supported.
2) Two recent impact studies suggest the program could be more effective in addressing school retention and lifecycle vulnerabilities.
3) Policy options presented include directly targeting vulnerable categories through a categorical approach or providing additional support for children under 5 and young mothers within beneficiary households.
The document discusses policy options for strengthening the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Program's approach to addressing lifecycle vulnerabilities. It summarizes that:
1) While the program indirectly reaches vulnerable groups like the elderly, disabled, and female-headed households, children under 5 are not directly supported.
2) Two recent impact studies suggest the program could be more effective in addressing school retention and lifecycle vulnerabilities.
3) Policy options presented include directly targeting vulnerable categories through a categorical approach or providing additional support for children under 5 and young mothers within beneficiary households.
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Researching the client.pptxsxssssssssssssssssssssss
Can unconditional cash transfers graduate households out of poverty?
1. In search of the holy grail: Can
unconditional cash transfers graduate
households out of poverty?
Sudhanshu Handa & Gustavo Angeles - UNC
Gelson Tembo – UNZA and Palm Associates
Luisa Natali - UNICEF Office of Research
2. Exploit reform of cash transfer system to see what
happened to households who were removed
• From 2004-2014 Zambian government experimented with different
cash transfer models
• Two new models introduced in 2010 and 2011, accompanied by RCTs
• Child Grant Program (CGP): evaluation period 2010-2014
• Multiple Category Grant: evaluation period 2011-2014
• In 2014 policy decision to merge all programs into one social cash
transfer program (SCT), scale-up began in 2015, case load now 550k
• What happened to those not eligible for the new program?
3. An exciting period in Zambia for cash transfers
GoZ budget contribution went from $5m to $35m in 2014 and $45m in 2015
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Households Reached by Cash Transfers in Zambia
CGP MCP
follow-ups
CGP MCP
baselines
CGP MCP
follow-ups
GoZ take over
Election
5. 2,519 households
February 2011
Treatment arm Control arm
1,153 households 1,145 households
1,221 households 1,179 households
1,221 households 1,238 households
1,197 households 1,226 households
1051 households 1087 households
September-October 2014 48-month follow-up
September-October 2017 84-month follow-up
October-November 2010: Baseline survey
First transfer in treatment communities
October-November 2012: 24-month follow-up
June-July 2013: 30-month follow-up
October-November 2013: 36-month follow-up
797 out
(75%)
841 out
(77%)
CGP Impact Evaluation
6. 6
Total consumption pc [24m]
[36m]
Food security scale (HFIAS) [24m]
[36m]
Overall asset index [24m]
[36m]
Relative poverty index [24m]
[36m]
Incomes & Revenues index (SD) [24m]
[36m]
Finance & Debt index (SD) [24m]
[36m]
Material needs index (5-17)[24m]
[36m]
Schooling index (11-17) [24m]
[36m]
Anthropometric index (11-17) [24m]
[36m]
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Effect size in SDs of the control group
Endlines 1&2 (24&36-months) at a glance
Intent-to-Treat effects (CGP) - indices
Large effects at 36m on
productive and protective
Domains
Big implied multiplier
JDE Vol. 133 (2018)
7. Follow-up study details
• Went back to CGP households in 2017 (Kalabo, Shangombo, Kaputa)
•
• Kaputa: Retargeting implemented in 2015 in study sites
• Shangombo & Kalabo: implemented in 2017 in study sites
• But households were also being graduated due to age of child!
• Mean months of exposure is 45 (Jan 2011 – Sep 2014)
• Control households who were ineligible for SCT received ZM500
8. -Mean exposure 45 months
-Last group were paid in Q1
of 2017
-Survey done Q4 2017
10. Research questions
• What happened to households who stopped receiving cash?
• Compare original CGP households who were ineligible vs original control
households who were also ineligible
• What happened to original controls who became eligible?
• Compare them to original treatment households who remained eligible
• How does this inform broader ‘graduation from poverty’ debate?
• Are initial impacts sustained by everyone? Are there high fliers who can help
us understand graduation from poverty?
11. 11
Total consumption pc
Food security scale
Overall asset index
Relative poverty index
Incomes & Revenues index (SD)
Finance & Debt index (SD)
Material needs index (5-17)
Schooling index (11-17)
-.2 0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Effect size in SDs of the control group
At 36- and 84-months
Intent-to-Treat effects (CGP Ineligibles)36m
84m
What happened to households who
were no longer eligible?
Differences no longer significant
These are the purple effect sizes and
Cis, all include 0
12. What happened to those who were removed from
the CGP? Consumption, food security
13. What happened to those who were removed from
the CGP? Subjective well-being
14. What happened to those who were removed from
the CGP? Productive and economic indicators
15. Conclusions on what happened to those who
were removed from the cash transfer?
• Gradual convergence on protective outcomes, not a steep drop
• Slight decline in original T, and slight increase in C
• Remember C also received ZM500 lump-sum, which could explain their
gradual increase
• Convergence slower for productive indicators
• Assets, agricultural input spending, area cultivated
• Results not sensitive when accounting for length of exposure
• Length of exposure and separating out Kaputa
16. How about new recipients—did they catch-up
immediately? Yes! All 84m effects include 0
17. Comparing new SCT recipients with eligible CGP households:
Complete catch-up
19. Search for the Holy Grail…
• Are there some households that maintained their consumption after
leaving the program? HIGH FLYERS
• Who are they? What did they do? What secrets do they hold about
‘graduating’ out of poverty?
• How do we define a HIGH FLYER? (Work in progress)
• Two examples
20. Among Original T ineligibles, identify consumption
trajectory suggesting ‘high flyer’
22. Any individual features that distinguish high flyers?
High Fliers Others
Household size 5.7 5.7
# of able-bodied members 1.93 1.90
Highest grade of CGP recipient 6 4
Individual FISP receipt 2.50 1.75
Distance to nearest market (km) 2.3 2.7
Impatient (never wait for future money) (%) 11 16
Life will be better in 3 years (%) 72 62
24. Any community level factors to explain the high fliers?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FISP Seed Support Ag Extension Microfinance Skills Training Kalabo
Community features (%)
High Flyer Other
25. Another definition of HIGH FLYER: Top quartile of
consumption distribution at 36m and 84m (~10% of
households fall in this category)
High Fliers Others
Household size 4.9 5.8
# of able-bodied members 1.8 1.9
Highest grade of CGP recipient 6 4
Individual FISP receipt 2.2 2.0
Distance to nearest market (km) 2.4 2.4
Impatient (never wait for future money) (%) 16 16
Life will be better in 3 years (%) 68 62
27. Any community level factors to explain the high fliers?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FISP Seed Support Ag Extension Microfinance Skills Training Kalabo
Community features (%)
High Flyer Other
29. Preliminary conclusions and next steps
• What happens to those who left program?
• Gradual convergence with original C group, slower for assets/productive
• New entrants to SCT converge quickly to long-time recipients
• Households are ultra-poor, transfer size is ~15% of consumption
• Search for the Holy Grail
• Use machine learning, group-based trajectory model, other definitions
• See if patterns emerge on who they are, what they did, context
• High flyers in the original control group too!?!
Editor's Notes
Gradual convergence, none of the differences are statistically significant at 84.
Clear convergence, slight decline or stability in original T group, catch-up among original C group
Here the original T do remain above C, but again, none of the differences are statistically significant. Convergence seems slower for productive indicators.
Now look at the eligible. Did the new beneficiaries catch-up immediately? Did those who were on the CGP and now SCT continue to stay ahead? Again, despite what the graphs show, none of these differences are statistically significant. So the new beneficiaries have caught up.
GELSON: FOR ARUSHA, WE NEED TO FOCUS ON HIGH FLIERS AND GRADUATION. SO THIS PART CAN BE IGNORED. I AM CUTTING THE HIGH FLIERS IN DIFFERENT WAYS AND WILL ADD RESULTS FROM ONE OTHER APPROACH
None of these differences are statistically significant, though trend lines are negative for land cultivated
These are ‘mixture models’ , or group-based trajectory models. The data identified four groups, group 1 is the outlier, where consumption is rising, 6% of the sample
Are these households different in any way? Not really, they live a bit closer to market, and have slightly more schooling (complete primary)
How about where they live, the CWACs? These variables are CWAC level indicators, there is some indication that CWACs where high fliers live have more complementary activities. Also note that these high fliers are more likely to come from Kalabo! Is this the famous road?
Are these households different in any way? Not really, they live a bit closer to market, and have slightly more schooling (complete primary)
How about where they live, the CWACs? These variables are CWAC level indicators, there is some indication that CWACs where high fliers live have more complementary activities. Also note that these high fliers are more likely to come from Kalabo! Is this the famous road?