The Marshmallow Tests conducted by Stanford psychologist Walter Mischel, and his team were supposed to predict success in life. But do they really?

1. CAN
MARSHMALLOWS
PREDICT SUCCESS?

2. HAVE YOU HEARD OF
THE MARSHMALLOW
TEST?

3. Basically it goes like this….
1. Give a kid a marshmallow.
2. Tell them they can have TWO if
they WAIT 15 min to eat it.
3. Leave the room.

4. Being patient enough
to double the payout
supposedly indicates
willpower that predicts
success

5. Austrian psychologist
Walter Mischel & his
team developed this test
at Stanford in the 1960s.
They tracked kids for ~30
years & published results
in 1990.

6. As is often the case
with science that
confirms
preconceived notions,
Mischel’s experiment
& results became a
huge hit...

7. Can you
think
why?

8. CONFIRMATION BIAS

9. “The tendency to search for, interpret,
focus on & remember information
confirming one's preconceptions”

10. There’s just one
little problem...

11. Mishel’s sample
was just 90 kids.
From 1
kindergarten.
In Stanford.

12. Does that sound like solid
evidence to you ?

13. Millions of kids
around the
world have
been tortured
with candy
BECAUSE OF
FAULTY
SCIENCE

15. A new study published this year by Tyler
Watts, Greg Duncan & Hoanan Quan
restaged the experiment with 900 kids.
It found the conclusion of causation for
wait times & success to be MISGUIDED

16. The new study suggests waiting for a 2nd
marshmallow is largely shaped by the child’s
social & economic background,
which obviously also impacts their
long-term success.

17. There’s plenty of
research supporting
these new conclusions

18. Harvard economist Sendhil
Mullainathan & Princeton
behavioral scientist Eldar Shafir
dedicated their 2013 book
“Scarcity: Why Having Too Little
Means So Much” to the topic.
It explains how poverty leads
people to opt for short-term
rather than long-term rewards

19. Learn more?
Follow this link to find a
comprehensive list of Cognitive
Biases.
Can you find at least 3 that
affected Dr. Poopypants’
judgement?

20. THANK YOU!