Campaign Project_Arkansas Senate Race 2014

ARIZONA CHRISTIAN UNIVERSITY
CAMPAIGN PROJECT:
ARKANSAS SENATORIAL RACE 2014
SUBMITTED TO PROFESSOR WILL MUNSIL
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF
POL 440: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
BY
KATI MCCARTHY
NOVEMBER 17, 2014

POL 440: McCarthy 2
CAMPAIGN PROJECT: ARKANSAS SENATORIAL RACE 2014
PART I: THE CANDIDATES AND THE POLITICAL LANSCAPE OF ARKANSAS
The 2014 Arkansas Senate race between Democratic incumbent, Mark Pryor, and
Republican representative, Tom Cotton, is one of the closest senatorial races of the mid-term
elections. Senator Pryor has held the seat since 2002. Before holding this position, he served as
an Arkansas State House Representative from 1991 to 1994, as well as, the Arkansas State
Attorney General from 1999 to 20021
. Pryor is the only remaining democrat in the Arkansas
congressional delegation after winning an uncontested re-election in 20082
. Tom Cotton,
however, is new to the senatorial political sphere. He was elected to the House of
Representatives in 2013 with no prior political background3
. Due to the continuing change in
voter trends in Arkansas, as well as, the battle for control over the Senate, the race between Pryor
and Cotton is sure to be a closely contested one for the duration of the campaigning process.
Demographics and Voter Trends
The demographics and voting trends in Arkansas are bound to have an impact on the
outcome of the race. The population of the state of Arkansas is comprised of 2,949,131 people
1
http://votersedge.org/united-states/2014/may/arkansas/candidates/senator-district-ar/272-mark-
pryor?gclid=CIeB6O2m2sACFdGCfgods74ASg&jurisdictions=28.282.28-upper-ar.28.28-upper-AR.282.28-upper-
ar#.VBIvkzgtDIU
2
http://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections_in_Arkansas,_2014#Race_background
3
http://votersedge.org/united-states/2014/may/arkansas/candidates/senator-district-ar/644-tom-
cotton?gclid=CIeB6O2m2sACFdGCfgods74ASg&jurisdictions=28.282.28-upper-ar#.VBIuqzgtDIU

POL 440: McCarthy 3
which consist of seventy-eight percent Caucasian, fifteen percent African American, and six
percent Hispanic4
. Since the 2002 election, when Mark Pryor first gained the Senate seat, the
voting trends in Arkansas have predominantly shifted in favor of Republicans5
. During that
election, demographic polling has showed that Caucasian and Hispanic voters were almost
evenly split between Republican and Democrat while African American voters were
predominantly Democrat6
. Since 2002, out of Arkansas’ twenty-three counties, fourteen of them
have been known to vote Republican while the other nine have voted Democrat7
. The fourteen
Republican counties have seen large population growth (+ 143,000 people) while the nine
Democratic counties have had minimal population growth (+ 421 people)8
. These changes in
voter trends could possibly cost the incumbent, Pryor, his Senate seat.
Arkansas has produced big names in the political world on both sides of the aisle. These
names include Bill and Hillary Clinton as well as Mike Huckabee. Bill Clinton, an Arkansas
native, first entered political office as the Attorney General of Arkansas in 1976, and two years
later became the governor of the state.9
Hillary Clinton never held office in Arkansas, but is
known there for her marriage to Bill Clinton. Mike Huckabee was the forty-fourth governor of
4
http://www.politico.com/2014-election/results/arkansas/#.VBIxKzgtDIU
5
6
http://www.arkansasonline.com/votingtrends/
7
8
9
http://www.encyclopediaofarkansas.net/encyclopedia/entry-detail.aspx?entryID=95

POL 440: McCarthy 4
Arkansas after Bill Clinton was elected as President.10
As the years have progressed, Arkansas
has begun to lean more republican.
Local and National Issues Influencing the Race
There are several issues important to the Arkansas senatorial race such as the candidates’
position on the Affordable Care Act, the ruling of Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, and foreign policy
stance on Iraq and ISIS. Mark Pryor did vote in favor of the Affordable Care Act during his
current term as senator11
. Pryor does, however, state that there are small problems with the law,
but as a whole is the best option available. Tom Cotton, on the other hand, advocates for the
repeal of the Affordable Care Act12
. He made his stance on the issue quite clear:
“Millions of American’s policies were cancelled because of ObamaCare, and those same
Americans were then forced to pay MORE for health insurance! However, ObamaCare is
hurting more than just our health care system, its forcing businesses to cut back on the
number of employees they hire and the number of hours those employees work”13
.
In a state with an eight percent unemployment rate14
(two percent higher than the national
average), prompting job cuts and the limiting of employee hours can cause a candidate to quickly
become unpopular with the constituency.
10
11
12
13
14

POL 440: McCarthy 5
With regards to Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, the two candidates used the case to attack the
other’s stance on religious freedoms and the role of religion in the political sphere. Cotton issued
a statement after the Supreme Court ruling:
“It's another example of how Obamacare infringes on the liberties of all Arkansans.
Barack Obama and Mark Pryor think that faith is something that only happens at 11:00
on Sunday mornings. That's when we worship but faith is what we live every single day.
And the government shouldn't infringe on the rights of religious liberty. So I'm pleased
with the Supreme Court's ruling but it's just another example of why Obamacare is bad
for Arkansas”15
.
Pryor issued a response to his opponent stating:
“I’m disappointed in Congressman Cotton’s deeply personal attack on me. He and I may
disagree on issues, but for him to question my faith is out of bounds. From a young age I
have never shied away from talking about the importance of God in my life, and it’s my
Christian faith that gives me comfort and guidance to be a steady voice for Arkansas in
the Senate”16
.
In regards to foreign policy stances on Iraq and ISIS, the two candidates have taken
reasonably different positions. Pryor wishes to continue humanitarian aid and is wary of the risks
that may arise from airstrikes17
. Cotton believes that the rise of ISIS is a result of Obama’s
premature troop withdrawal in 2011, and that military strength and intervention is the proper
course of action18
. The candidates’ stances on these as well as many other issues will
undoubtedly play a role in the outcome of the election.
A senatorial debate occurred on October 13, 2014, at the University of Central Arkansas,
Conway. The debate not only included Tom Cotton, Republican candidate, and Mark Pryor,
15
16
17
18

POL 440: McCarthy 6
Democratic candidate, but also a Green Party candidates, Mark Swaney, and Libertarian
candidate, Nathan LaFrance. The main issues discussed tended to be much more vague and
separated from that of the average Senate races this year. These issues included Mark Pryor’s
relationship to Obama, Cotton’s relationship with billionaire investors, and the Farm Bill which
includes issues such as food stamps. Cotton slammed Pryor for his costly alliance with the
Obama administration, and how he has voted for legislation that is detrimental to Arkansas.
Pryor attacked Cotton for his relationship with investors and basically accused him of attempting
to buy the senate seat. The Farm Bill issue rested mostly on the point of food stamps. The Farm
Bill included funding for the food stamps program. Pryor stated that he was for the bill because
the average farmer in Arkansas needs the assistance. He demonized Cotton for voting against it;
stating that Cotton’s opposition to the bill proved that he did not care about the wellbeing of the
people of Arkansas. Cotton clarified his reasoning for voting against the Farm Bill by stating that
the food stamp funding needed to be in its own separate bill. The funding of food stamps in this
bill was rarely going directly to the people of Arkansas, and Cotton argue that separating and
reforming the food stamps program outside of the Farm Bill was better for Arkansas’ citizens.
The candidates spent most of their time attacking each other rather than explaining their views
and stances on issues to the people of Arkansas.
Polling and the Current Status of the Race
The race between Mark Pryor and Tom Cotton has been a close one from the beginning.
The polls have showed the two candidates constantly trading places as the top dog but never too
comfortably ahead of the other. The race is in a deadlock, but the recent polls seemed to show
Cotton gaining a consistent lead:

POL 440: McCarthy 7
Poll 19
Date Sample MoE Cotton (R) Pryor (D) Spread
RCP Average 8/1 - 9/4 -- -- 44.6 42.2 Cotton +2.4
NBC News/Marist* 9/2 - 9/4 639 LV 3.9 45 40 Cotton +5
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28 - 9/2 523 LV 4.5 49 47 Cotton +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18 - 9/2 1572 LV 3.0 43 39 Cotton +4
Rasmussen Reports 8/25 - 8/26 750 LV 4.0 43 44 Pryor +1
PPP (D) 8/1 - 8/3 1066 RV 3.0 43 41 Cotton +2
The latest polls conducted by Gravis Marketing (9/8 – 9/11) show Tom Cotton with a four point
lead over Pryor20
. By simply relying on the polls, Tom Cotton appears to be the front runner.
However, this closely contested race is far from over.
Candidate Backgrounds, Mark Pryor
The Democratic incumbent, Mark Pryor, has a far more extensive political background
than his opponent. He began his political career in the Arkansas State House of Representatives
in 199121
. From there, Pryor became the State Attorney General in 1999, and three years later he
was elected to the US Senate22
. During his political career, Pryor has been a moderate democrat
and tends to vote middle of the road23
. Pryor earned his BA in history from the University of
19
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_cotton_vs_pryor-
4049.html#polls
20
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-arkansas-senate-cotton-vs-pryor
21
ar#.VBIvkzgtDIU
22
ar#.VBIvkzgtDIU
23

POL 440: McCarthy 8
Arkansas in 1985; then went onto receive his JD from the University of Arkansas in 198824
.
Prior to his political career, Mark Pryor practiced law with a private practice25
. He is a native to
Arkansas, and takes great pride in his home state.
Candidate Background, Tom Cotton
Tom Cotton is new to the political sphere. He had his political debut when he was elected
to the US House of Representatives as a Republican Arkansas Representative in 201326
. Cotton
received an AB degree from Harvard University in1998 as well as his JD from Harvard
University in 200227
. He practiced law at Gibson Dunn and Crutcher as well as with Cooper and
Kirk from 2003 to 200428
. He served as a clerk for the US Court of Appeals during this time as
well29
. From 2004 to 2009, Cotton served in the United States Army30
. He performed tours of
duty in both Iraq and Afghanistan31
. Tom Cotton received several awards during his service
24
ar#.VBIvkzgtDIU
25
ar#.VBIvkzgtDIU
26
27
28
29
30
31

POL 440: McCarthy 9
including the Bronze Star, the Combat Infantry Badge and the Ranger Tab32
. After his service in
the army, Cotton went to work as a management consultant for McKinsey & Company until he
decided to run for public office33
.
PART II: PREDICTION
The Arkansas Senatorial race between Democratic incumbent, Mark Pryor, and
Republican challenger, Tom Cotton, has become one of the most hotly contested races of the
2014 elections. The race has been close between the two since shortly after the primaries. What
was a dead-locked race looks as if Tom Cotton will take the win in Tuesday’s election. The Real
Clear Politics average places Cotton up 7.1 points over Pryor.34
This average is consistent with
other recent polls that have been released in the preceding weeks. The Rasmussen Reports has
found that fifty-one percent of voters in the district are dedicated to Cotton, while only forty-four
percent are for Pryor, leaving two percent undecided.35
Early projection data has Tom Cotton
winning by a seven percent margin.36
The following chart shows the compilation of the bulk of
the polling data on the race since May of 2013.37
Pryor had a generous lead throughout the
beginning of the race until about December of last year. The two candidates exchanged positions
32
33
34
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_cotton_vs_pryor-4049.html
35
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/arkansas/election_201
4_arkansas_senate
36
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/arkansas-senate-election.php
37

POL 440: McCarthy 10
as the lead candidate until around June of this year. Since that time, Cotton has held a slight yet
consistent lead. In the past two months, Cotton has gained a more substantial lead over Pryor.
Although the race is still considered highly contested, I predict Tom Cotton defeating
incumbent, Mark Pryor, and winning the senate seat for Arkansas.
PART III: EVALUTAION OF PREDICTION
Tom Cotton defeated Democratic incumbent, Mark Pryor, in Tuesday’s election. After a
closely contested race, Tom Cotton has been elected to his first term as a United States Senator
representing the state of Arkansas. The final results of the election ended with Cotton seventeen

points over Mark Pryor.38
This is a much higher win percentage than originally projected. This
will be the first time in over one-hundred years that Arkansas is represented by two republican
senators.39
Only three republicans have held this position for the state since the end of the Civil
War: Tim Hutchinson (1996-2002), John Boozman (2010-present), and now Tom Cotton.40
At
thirty-seven years old, Tom Cotton is now the youngest member in the Senate.41
Although
Cotton is young, he is quickly rising to national prominence. After only one term in the Arkansas
state legislature, Cotton is gaining national recognition for his many achievements. Politico
branded Cotton “most likely to succeed”.42
He has vowed to stand against pro-amnesty plans for
immigration reform that are quickly developing in the form of executive order.43
Cotton is also
said to be an opponent for any legislator looking to reform surveillance such as that done by the
NSA. He opposed the 2013 Amash Amendment which attempted to defund NSA surveillance
programs.44
Cotton had this to say about the previous amendment:
“This program has stopped dozens of terrorist attacks, that means it’s saved untold
American lives. This amendment is not simple. It does not limit the program. It does not
modify it. It does not constrain the program. It ends the program. It blows it up. Why do
you need it? Verizon, AT&T, and other companies will not keep this data for the years
necessary. And secondly, you need it quickly. When I was in Iraq, as platoon leader with
the 101st Airborne, if we rolled up a bad guy and we found a cell phone or we found a
thumb drive, we would immediately upload that data so intelligence professionals could
search it so they could go roll up another bad guy because you only have a few hours to
38
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_cotton_vs_pryor-4049.html
39
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-05/arkansas-senate-cotton-unseats-pryor
40
41
42
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/11/04/who-is-tom-cotton/
43
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/11/special-to-power-line-jeff-sessions-writes-tom-cotton-
will-fight-for-you.php
44
http://dissenter.firedoglake.com/2014/11/04/will-tom-cotton-be-the-new-face-of-surveillance-reform-
opposition-in-the-senate/

stop a terrorist once you catch another terrorist. Folks, we are at war. You may not like
that truth, I wish it weren’t the truth, but it is the truth. We are at war. Do not take away
this tool from our warriors on the front lines.”45
Tom Cotton, with his military background as well as his Harvard law degree, is in a key place to
assume a large amount of responsibility in the Senate. He has the opportunity to become a great
politician and voice for the average people. It is what he will do with this opportunity that will
decide whether Tom Cotton becomes a household name or just another forgotten Senator from
Arkansas.
45
http://dissenter.firedoglake.com/2014/11/04/will-tom-cotton-be-the-new-face-of-surveillance-reform-
opposition-in-the-senate/

Works Cited
cotton?gclid=CIeB6O2m2sACFdGCfgods74ASg&jurisdictions=28.282.28-upper-
ar#.VBIuqzgtDIU
pryor?gclid=CIeB6O2m2sACFdGCfgods74ASg&jurisdictions=28.282.28-upper-ar.28.28-upper-
AR.282.28-upper-ar#.VBIvkzgtDIU
http://www.arkansasonline.com/votingtrends/
4049.html#polls
4049.html
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/arkansas/elect
ion_2014_arkansas_senate
http://www.electionprojection.com/2014-elections/arkansas-senate-election.php

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/11/04/who-is-tom-cotton/
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/11/special-to-power-line-jeff-sessions-writes-tom-
cotton-will-fight-for-you.php
http://dissenter.firedoglake.com/2014/11/04/will-tom-cotton-be-the-new-face-of-surveillance-
reform-opposition-in-the-senate/

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