The document discusses the 2012 market outlook and focuses on the Eurozone debt crisis. It notes that the Eurozone sovereign debt problems originated in Greece, Ireland and Portugal in 2009 and have since spread to Italy. It analyzes the large debt refinancing needs of the PIIGS countries in the next few years and the rising bond yields in Italy and Spain, posing significant risks. The debt issues in these European countries could seriously impact global banks, financial institutions and markets.
Whether it involves performance, expansion or operations, the European hotel industry is experiencing big changes. Here are six trends sweeping the continent.
The European hotel industry has experienced 62 consecutive months of RevPAR growth, according to data from STR Global.
The weak euro has international travelers flocking to Europe, where transportation to reach hotels is plentiful.
The lease business model remains strong, but donât expect rate parity to be around in Europe for much longer.
The Irish economy became overly dependent on property development starting in the 2000s, with construction accounting for 20% of GDP by 2006 and banks heavily exposed to building and commercial property loans. The collapse of the property bubble has led to cumulative falls in GDP of over 25% and unemployment rising above 15% by the end of 2009. In order to recover, wages in Ireland need to fall substantially to regain competitiveness in international markets. The document analyzes how Ireland's property bubble formed from the 1990s onward and its dire economic consequences.
Global assets increased to $280.289 trillion in 2017, while global debt also increased to $233.453 trillion. Total debt has risen dramatically from $50 trillion in 1997 to over $233 trillion currently. Meanwhile, the wealth of the richest people has risen greatly as well - in 2016 just 62 people had as much wealth as the poorest 3.6 billion people combined. The United States has the highest total debt at $19.947 trillion, representing 31.8% of global debt, while also having the most billionaires of any country. While debt levels have increased significantly worldwide, the number of billionaires has also risen sharply over the same time period, suggesting a link between higher indebtedness and greater wealth accumulation
Andrew Pipe - UKBAA Summit presentationJenny Redman
Â
The document discusses the economic outlook and uncertainties following the UK's vote to leave the EU. It notes that global growth forecasts have historically been overly optimistic and that demographic changes will likely keep growth lower than pre-crisis levels. China's high debt also poses risks to global stability. The UK economy has so far weathered Brexit uncertainty, but consumers and businesses face pressures in the short-term from inflation and weaker investment. Longer-term impacts could include structural economic changes as some sectors become more threatened by EU tariffs while others see opportunities.
Presentation of a talk given at University of Luxembourg.
The Cyprus crisis is one of the most complex in the Eurozone, although in absolute terms the problem is insignificant. Inflows of foreign deposits in excess of 700% the islandâs GDP allowed a ÂŤperfect crisisÂť to form and contagion from Greece destroyed overnight 23.6% of the GDP. Rescue efforts were (mis)guided by a confluence of European and local politics, conflicting analyses of the problems, and forbearance from the supervisors. Bank depositors were bailed-in, making international headlines. We will argue that the bail-in is a viable solution to banking crises but with potential significant adverse effects.
http://wwwen.uni.lu/universite/actualites/evenements/grande_conference_how_to_sink_an_island_mixing_politics_and_economics_in_the_cyprus_crisis
The document shows trends in CGIAR funding from 2011-2012. It includes two charts - one showing the executed budget trends for unrestricted, restricted, and fund disbursements from 2000-2010, with totals fluctuating between $200-800 million. The second chart shows CGIAR fund receipts grew 33% from 2011-2012, with window 1 (W1) decreasing 34% and window 2 (W2) increasing 175% between the two years. Total receipts were $384 million in 2011 and $514 million in 2012.
Private equity assets under management have increased fivefold over the last 12 years, reaching nearly $4.2 trillion in 2015. Private equity has demonstrated resilience during economic downturns, with lower default rates for PE-backed companies compared to speculative grade companies during the 2008 recession. Major university endowments, such as Harvard and Yale, have significant target allocations to private equity, between 18-31%, and have achieved strong long-term returns from their PE investments, averaging between 14-24% annually over 10-20 year periods. While private equity has seen tremendous growth, it also faces challenges from increasing regulatory scrutiny and constructing optimal asset allocations.
The document discusses the 2012 market outlook and focuses on the Eurozone debt crisis. It notes that the Eurozone sovereign debt problems originated in Greece, Ireland and Portugal in 2009 and have since spread to Italy. It analyzes the large debt refinancing needs of the PIIGS countries in the next few years and the rising bond yields in Italy and Spain, posing significant risks. The debt issues in these European countries could seriously impact global banks, financial institutions and markets.
Whether it involves performance, expansion or operations, the European hotel industry is experiencing big changes. Here are six trends sweeping the continent.
The European hotel industry has experienced 62 consecutive months of RevPAR growth, according to data from STR Global.
The weak euro has international travelers flocking to Europe, where transportation to reach hotels is plentiful.
The lease business model remains strong, but donât expect rate parity to be around in Europe for much longer.
The Irish economy became overly dependent on property development starting in the 2000s, with construction accounting for 20% of GDP by 2006 and banks heavily exposed to building and commercial property loans. The collapse of the property bubble has led to cumulative falls in GDP of over 25% and unemployment rising above 15% by the end of 2009. In order to recover, wages in Ireland need to fall substantially to regain competitiveness in international markets. The document analyzes how Ireland's property bubble formed from the 1990s onward and its dire economic consequences.
Global assets increased to $280.289 trillion in 2017, while global debt also increased to $233.453 trillion. Total debt has risen dramatically from $50 trillion in 1997 to over $233 trillion currently. Meanwhile, the wealth of the richest people has risen greatly as well - in 2016 just 62 people had as much wealth as the poorest 3.6 billion people combined. The United States has the highest total debt at $19.947 trillion, representing 31.8% of global debt, while also having the most billionaires of any country. While debt levels have increased significantly worldwide, the number of billionaires has also risen sharply over the same time period, suggesting a link between higher indebtedness and greater wealth accumulation
Andrew Pipe - UKBAA Summit presentationJenny Redman
Â
The document discusses the economic outlook and uncertainties following the UK's vote to leave the EU. It notes that global growth forecasts have historically been overly optimistic and that demographic changes will likely keep growth lower than pre-crisis levels. China's high debt also poses risks to global stability. The UK economy has so far weathered Brexit uncertainty, but consumers and businesses face pressures in the short-term from inflation and weaker investment. Longer-term impacts could include structural economic changes as some sectors become more threatened by EU tariffs while others see opportunities.
Presentation of a talk given at University of Luxembourg.
The Cyprus crisis is one of the most complex in the Eurozone, although in absolute terms the problem is insignificant. Inflows of foreign deposits in excess of 700% the islandâs GDP allowed a ÂŤperfect crisisÂť to form and contagion from Greece destroyed overnight 23.6% of the GDP. Rescue efforts were (mis)guided by a confluence of European and local politics, conflicting analyses of the problems, and forbearance from the supervisors. Bank depositors were bailed-in, making international headlines. We will argue that the bail-in is a viable solution to banking crises but with potential significant adverse effects.
http://wwwen.uni.lu/universite/actualites/evenements/grande_conference_how_to_sink_an_island_mixing_politics_and_economics_in_the_cyprus_crisis
The document shows trends in CGIAR funding from 2011-2012. It includes two charts - one showing the executed budget trends for unrestricted, restricted, and fund disbursements from 2000-2010, with totals fluctuating between $200-800 million. The second chart shows CGIAR fund receipts grew 33% from 2011-2012, with window 1 (W1) decreasing 34% and window 2 (W2) increasing 175% between the two years. Total receipts were $384 million in 2011 and $514 million in 2012.
Private equity assets under management have increased fivefold over the last 12 years, reaching nearly $4.2 trillion in 2015. Private equity has demonstrated resilience during economic downturns, with lower default rates for PE-backed companies compared to speculative grade companies during the 2008 recession. Major university endowments, such as Harvard and Yale, have significant target allocations to private equity, between 18-31%, and have achieved strong long-term returns from their PE investments, averaging between 14-24% annually over 10-20 year periods. While private equity has seen tremendous growth, it also faces challenges from increasing regulatory scrutiny and constructing optimal asset allocations.
1) Professor Morgan Kelly warned in several Irish Times articles between 2006-2011 that Ireland's public debt crisis could result in national bankruptcy as property prices collapsed, unemployment rose, and bank losses mounted.
2) Kelly estimated that Ireland's total government debt could reach âŹ250 billion by 2014 due to annual deficits, bank bailouts, and promissory note interest. Others argued Kelly's estimate was too high by âŹ50-60 billion.
3) Breaking down potential debt sources, the author estimates Ireland's government debt could realistically reach âŹ210 billion by 2014, with bank-related debt accounting for 25% of the total and annual deficits contributing âŹ100 billion overall.
- Ireland and Spain experienced housing bubbles fueled by excessive credit growth as interest rates fell under EMU, crowding out their tradable sectors.
- The mismanagement of housing markets had significant macroeconomic costs as the bubbles burst, including large falls in economic demand and activity.
- Governments must better manage their housing markets through fiscal policy, financial regulation, and ensuring balanced growth to prevent unsustainable imbalances from developing.
The document discusses the economic crisis that occurred in Ireland in 2008. It examines the causes of the crisis, including the property bubble fueled by increased bank lending, low interest rates after joining the euro, and lax fiscal policy. The crisis had severe consequences for Ireland, including a deep recession, loss of economic sovereignty after an EU-IMF bailout, and high unemployment. The government responses including expanding deposit guarantees and eventually guaranteeing all bank debts, which increased public debt substantially.
Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business Renzil D'cruz
Â
: Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business
⢠financial crisis of 2007â2008
⢠Greek government-debt crisis
⢠Causes for deteriorated economic
⢠Tax evasion and corruption
⢠Unsustainable and accelerating debt-to-GDP ratios
⢠Impact of the Greece Economic Crisis on India
Indiaâs Crisis Responses and Challenges
Martin Wolf on 'The Shifts and the Shocks: What we've learned â and still hav...IPPR
Â
This document summarizes the key events and causes of the global financial crisis according to Martin Wolf. It discusses the large declines in output compared to pre-crisis trends in the US, Eurozone, and UK. It analyzes factors such as global imbalances with excess savings in countries like China and oil exporters, private sector debt growth and leverage, low interest rates set by central banks, and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The document examines how these shifts and shocks led major economies into recession and prolonged periods of weak demand and managed depressions.
The document discusses the consequences of rising global debt levels and the need for debt adjustment, noting that debt has sharply increased as a percentage of GDP in many countries since the 2008 financial crisis. It examines factors that have contributed to rising debt like monetary policy asymmetry and the search for yield, and suggests this debt build-up has increased vulnerabilities and could slow economic growth if not addressed through the appropriate policy responses and investment strategies.
An attempt to cover different facets of ESD Crisis . Following ppt enumerate how it all got started and draws out rationale behind the formation of EU.
The document discusses the connections between the US financial crisis and the euro crisis in Europe. It argues that Germany's export-led growth model, which relied on wage restraint and trade surpluses, contributed to imbalances within Europe. German banks invested heavily in the debt of peripheral European countries like Greece, Spain, and Italy. When the US housing bubble burst, it exposed vulnerabilities in the global financial system and ultimately led to Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
This document summarizes the Euro zone crisis. It establishes that the Euro zone is an economic and monetary union of 17 European countries that have adopted the euro as their currency. Problems arose as many governments ran budget deficits and lacked central fiscal control. The 2008 global financial crisis severely impacted smaller Euro zone countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, known as the PIIGS, giving them too much debt to repay. Key factors that led to the crisis included violations of EU rules, banking sector problems, rising interest rates and huge debt levels. The crisis impacted investors, economies, unemployment and global growth. Present situations still see struggles in the most affected PIIGS countries to reduce debt and unemployment.
The Great Recession had significant negative economic and social impacts on Ireland. GDP declined sharply and unemployment rose dramatically. However, the arts and creativity flourished during this difficult time. While austerity measures were necessary and helped reduce the debt burden, they increased poverty and inequality. The future remains uncertain, with Ireland's growth prospects dependent on recovery in key export markets in the EU and US. Further reforms are still needed to address legacy issues and strengthen the economy.
The document discusses Ireland's growing public debt crisis. It estimates that Ireland's general government debt will reach approximately âŹ250 billion by 2014, up drastically from âŹ47 billion in 2007. This growth is primarily due to large budget deficits from 2008-2011, billions borrowed to recapitalize banks, and promissory notes issued to distressed financial institutions. While some assets may offset this debt, sustainability concerns remain due to risks of further bank losses, deficit overruns, and debt interest costs totaling billions annually. The outlook remains uncertain depending on maintaining deficit reduction and economic recovery.
The document discusses the Eurozone crisis. It provides background on the formation of the eurozone and explains how countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain (PIIGS) accumulated large debts and deficits after joining the euro. The crisis emerged as investors lost confidence in sovereign debt from these peripheral economies. Several factors contributed to the crisis, including low interest rates fueling overspending, unsustainable growth models, and banking losses. The EU and ECB have taken steps to address the crisis through monetary easing, bailout funds, and austerity policies.
The document provides historical context on the evolution of the European Union and Eurozone, including key treaties and agreements that advanced economic and monetary integration among EU member states over time. It then discusses the sovereign debt crisis that emerged in Europe in 2010, with several Eurozone countries like Greece, Ireland, and Portugal facing insolvency and requiring bailouts after accumulating high levels of debt. The causes of Ireland's economic crisis are explained in more detail, including the bursting of a real estate bubble and the government guaranteeing bank losses that swelled the national deficit.
The document provides details on promissory notes issued by the Irish government to cover debts of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society after they became insolvent during the 2008 financial crisis. The notes, totaling âŹ30.6 billion, are being paid back over 20 years through 2031. Making the note payments costs the Irish state an estimated âŹ85 billion due to interest and requires substantial annual fiscal consolidation that hinders economic growth. The document discusses risks cited in changing the repayment terms and argues the risks are overblown and flexibility could help Ireland's economic recovery.
The document provides details on promissory notes issued by the Irish government to cover debts of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society after they became insolvent during the 2008 financial crisis. The notes, totaling âŹ30.6 billion, are being paid back over 20 years through 2031. Making the note payments costs the Irish state an estimated âŹ85 billion due to interest and requires substantial annual fiscal consolidation that hinders economic growth. The document discusses risks cited in changing the repayment terms and argues the risks are overstated and flexibility could help Ireland's economic recovery.
The Irish economy experienced a dramatic crisis from 2008-2010. It had seen strong growth during the Celtic Tiger period from the 1990s-2000s, fueled by foreign investment and a construction boom. However, the government relied heavily on tax revenue from the overheated property sector. When a global financial crisis hit and the housing bubble burst, Ireland's economy collapsed as the banking sector failed and the government deficit ballooned. An EU-IMF bailout program was implemented to restructure the banks and implement fiscal austerity. While Ireland recovered slowly, it provides lessons about risks of over-reliance on property markets and the need for macroprudential regulation and oversight of the eurozone.
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Professor of Political Economy, Trinity College Dublin at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Falling unemployment, declining inflation and stronger growth â a better picture for the UK in 2014? But can it last?
After several years of weak expansion, the UK economy is enjoying a relatively strong cyclical recovery
Can the UK continued to experience a recovery in output, jobs and investment?
Will the recovery be balanced and sustainable?
How resilient is the UK? What are some of the major threats to growth in 2014 and beyond?
Objective Capital's Africa Resources Investment Congress 2011
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
14-15 June 2011
Day 2: Focus on Zimbabwe
Speaker: Ritesh Anand, Invictus asset management
The document summarizes several financial crises:
- The Eurozone crisis began in 2009 when Greece revealed large budget deficits over 3% of GDP allowed. Private debt was transferred to sovereign debt in countries like Greece and Ireland.
- Mexico experienced crises in the 1980s ("Lost Decade") and 1994 ("Tequila Effect") due to large deficits, government borrowing, and peso devaluations. Both crises were resolved through IMF loans.
- The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis began in Thailand and spread due to fixed exchange rates and credit bubbles fueled by foreign capital inflows. Countries faced bankruptcies and withdrawals of credit after devaluations. Thailand was rescued by IMF loans.
This document discusses universal health insurance (UHI) in Ireland and outlines some key issues. It distinguishes between universality, meaning health benefits for everyone funded through compulsory contributions, and insurance, which involves personal contracts, choice of insurers, and separate organizations for payors and providers. Two main problems are identified: fees limiting primary care access and two-tier hospital access. Implementing UHI will involve merging public funding streams with private insurance money flows and clarifying issues around payments, benefits, and the roles of providers, insurers, and the public.
National Association of GPs Presentation 20 July 2013Oliver O'Connor
Â
A presentation I gave at the EGM of Ireland's National Association of General Practitioners. Shows progress in some areas of health; payments to GPs since 2002; and argues that general practice should embrace measures which show its value and contribution to healthcare.
1) Professor Morgan Kelly warned in several Irish Times articles between 2006-2011 that Ireland's public debt crisis could result in national bankruptcy as property prices collapsed, unemployment rose, and bank losses mounted.
2) Kelly estimated that Ireland's total government debt could reach âŹ250 billion by 2014 due to annual deficits, bank bailouts, and promissory note interest. Others argued Kelly's estimate was too high by âŹ50-60 billion.
3) Breaking down potential debt sources, the author estimates Ireland's government debt could realistically reach âŹ210 billion by 2014, with bank-related debt accounting for 25% of the total and annual deficits contributing âŹ100 billion overall.
- Ireland and Spain experienced housing bubbles fueled by excessive credit growth as interest rates fell under EMU, crowding out their tradable sectors.
- The mismanagement of housing markets had significant macroeconomic costs as the bubbles burst, including large falls in economic demand and activity.
- Governments must better manage their housing markets through fiscal policy, financial regulation, and ensuring balanced growth to prevent unsustainable imbalances from developing.
The document discusses the economic crisis that occurred in Ireland in 2008. It examines the causes of the crisis, including the property bubble fueled by increased bank lending, low interest rates after joining the euro, and lax fiscal policy. The crisis had severe consequences for Ireland, including a deep recession, loss of economic sovereignty after an EU-IMF bailout, and high unemployment. The government responses including expanding deposit guarantees and eventually guaranteeing all bank debts, which increased public debt substantially.
Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business Renzil D'cruz
Â
: Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business
⢠financial crisis of 2007â2008
⢠Greek government-debt crisis
⢠Causes for deteriorated economic
⢠Tax evasion and corruption
⢠Unsustainable and accelerating debt-to-GDP ratios
⢠Impact of the Greece Economic Crisis on India
Indiaâs Crisis Responses and Challenges
Martin Wolf on 'The Shifts and the Shocks: What we've learned â and still hav...IPPR
Â
This document summarizes the key events and causes of the global financial crisis according to Martin Wolf. It discusses the large declines in output compared to pre-crisis trends in the US, Eurozone, and UK. It analyzes factors such as global imbalances with excess savings in countries like China and oil exporters, private sector debt growth and leverage, low interest rates set by central banks, and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. The document examines how these shifts and shocks led major economies into recession and prolonged periods of weak demand and managed depressions.
The document discusses the consequences of rising global debt levels and the need for debt adjustment, noting that debt has sharply increased as a percentage of GDP in many countries since the 2008 financial crisis. It examines factors that have contributed to rising debt like monetary policy asymmetry and the search for yield, and suggests this debt build-up has increased vulnerabilities and could slow economic growth if not addressed through the appropriate policy responses and investment strategies.
An attempt to cover different facets of ESD Crisis . Following ppt enumerate how it all got started and draws out rationale behind the formation of EU.
The document discusses the connections between the US financial crisis and the euro crisis in Europe. It argues that Germany's export-led growth model, which relied on wage restraint and trade surpluses, contributed to imbalances within Europe. German banks invested heavily in the debt of peripheral European countries like Greece, Spain, and Italy. When the US housing bubble burst, it exposed vulnerabilities in the global financial system and ultimately led to Europe's sovereign debt crisis.
This document summarizes the Euro zone crisis. It establishes that the Euro zone is an economic and monetary union of 17 European countries that have adopted the euro as their currency. Problems arose as many governments ran budget deficits and lacked central fiscal control. The 2008 global financial crisis severely impacted smaller Euro zone countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain, known as the PIIGS, giving them too much debt to repay. Key factors that led to the crisis included violations of EU rules, banking sector problems, rising interest rates and huge debt levels. The crisis impacted investors, economies, unemployment and global growth. Present situations still see struggles in the most affected PIIGS countries to reduce debt and unemployment.
The Great Recession had significant negative economic and social impacts on Ireland. GDP declined sharply and unemployment rose dramatically. However, the arts and creativity flourished during this difficult time. While austerity measures were necessary and helped reduce the debt burden, they increased poverty and inequality. The future remains uncertain, with Ireland's growth prospects dependent on recovery in key export markets in the EU and US. Further reforms are still needed to address legacy issues and strengthen the economy.
The document discusses Ireland's growing public debt crisis. It estimates that Ireland's general government debt will reach approximately âŹ250 billion by 2014, up drastically from âŹ47 billion in 2007. This growth is primarily due to large budget deficits from 2008-2011, billions borrowed to recapitalize banks, and promissory notes issued to distressed financial institutions. While some assets may offset this debt, sustainability concerns remain due to risks of further bank losses, deficit overruns, and debt interest costs totaling billions annually. The outlook remains uncertain depending on maintaining deficit reduction and economic recovery.
The document discusses the Eurozone crisis. It provides background on the formation of the eurozone and explains how countries like Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain (PIIGS) accumulated large debts and deficits after joining the euro. The crisis emerged as investors lost confidence in sovereign debt from these peripheral economies. Several factors contributed to the crisis, including low interest rates fueling overspending, unsustainable growth models, and banking losses. The EU and ECB have taken steps to address the crisis through monetary easing, bailout funds, and austerity policies.
The document provides historical context on the evolution of the European Union and Eurozone, including key treaties and agreements that advanced economic and monetary integration among EU member states over time. It then discusses the sovereign debt crisis that emerged in Europe in 2010, with several Eurozone countries like Greece, Ireland, and Portugal facing insolvency and requiring bailouts after accumulating high levels of debt. The causes of Ireland's economic crisis are explained in more detail, including the bursting of a real estate bubble and the government guaranteeing bank losses that swelled the national deficit.
The document provides details on promissory notes issued by the Irish government to cover debts of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society after they became insolvent during the 2008 financial crisis. The notes, totaling âŹ30.6 billion, are being paid back over 20 years through 2031. Making the note payments costs the Irish state an estimated âŹ85 billion due to interest and requires substantial annual fiscal consolidation that hinders economic growth. The document discusses risks cited in changing the repayment terms and argues the risks are overblown and flexibility could help Ireland's economic recovery.
The document provides details on promissory notes issued by the Irish government to cover debts of Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide Building Society after they became insolvent during the 2008 financial crisis. The notes, totaling âŹ30.6 billion, are being paid back over 20 years through 2031. Making the note payments costs the Irish state an estimated âŹ85 billion due to interest and requires substantial annual fiscal consolidation that hinders economic growth. The document discusses risks cited in changing the repayment terms and argues the risks are overstated and flexibility could help Ireland's economic recovery.
The Irish economy experienced a dramatic crisis from 2008-2010. It had seen strong growth during the Celtic Tiger period from the 1990s-2000s, fueled by foreign investment and a construction boom. However, the government relied heavily on tax revenue from the overheated property sector. When a global financial crisis hit and the housing bubble burst, Ireland's economy collapsed as the banking sector failed and the government deficit ballooned. An EU-IMF bailout program was implemented to restructure the banks and implement fiscal austerity. While Ireland recovered slowly, it provides lessons about risks of over-reliance on property markets and the need for macroprudential regulation and oversight of the eurozone.
Presentation by Philip R. Lane, Professor of Political Economy, Trinity College Dublin at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Falling unemployment, declining inflation and stronger growth â a better picture for the UK in 2014? But can it last?
After several years of weak expansion, the UK economy is enjoying a relatively strong cyclical recovery
Can the UK continued to experience a recovery in output, jobs and investment?
Will the recovery be balanced and sustainable?
How resilient is the UK? What are some of the major threats to growth in 2014 and beyond?
Objective Capital's Africa Resources Investment Congress 2011
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
14-15 June 2011
Day 2: Focus on Zimbabwe
Speaker: Ritesh Anand, Invictus asset management
The document summarizes several financial crises:
- The Eurozone crisis began in 2009 when Greece revealed large budget deficits over 3% of GDP allowed. Private debt was transferred to sovereign debt in countries like Greece and Ireland.
- Mexico experienced crises in the 1980s ("Lost Decade") and 1994 ("Tequila Effect") due to large deficits, government borrowing, and peso devaluations. Both crises were resolved through IMF loans.
- The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis began in Thailand and spread due to fixed exchange rates and credit bubbles fueled by foreign capital inflows. Countries faced bankruptcies and withdrawals of credit after devaluations. Thailand was rescued by IMF loans.
This document discusses universal health insurance (UHI) in Ireland and outlines some key issues. It distinguishes between universality, meaning health benefits for everyone funded through compulsory contributions, and insurance, which involves personal contracts, choice of insurers, and separate organizations for payors and providers. Two main problems are identified: fees limiting primary care access and two-tier hospital access. Implementing UHI will involve merging public funding streams with private insurance money flows and clarifying issues around payments, benefits, and the roles of providers, insurers, and the public.
National Association of GPs Presentation 20 July 2013Oliver O'Connor
Â
A presentation I gave at the EGM of Ireland's National Association of General Practitioners. Shows progress in some areas of health; payments to GPs since 2002; and argues that general practice should embrace measures which show its value and contribution to healthcare.
The document discusses health spending trends and sustainability. It finds that while spending is growing, it is not unsustainable and growth is not out of control. Age-related cost increases can be managed through anticipation. However, the application of resources may not be efficient. Reforms aimed at improving efficiency, such as reducing staffing and supply costs, could achieve annual savings of up to 5% of GDP.
Ceohealth matters paper 4 sept12 forum jb oocOliver O'Connor
Â
This document discusses how the introduction of a Money Follows the Patient (MFtP) payment system in Ireland could be influenced by European law and the Single Market. It notes that MFtP is envisioned as a step towards establishing universal health insurance in Ireland. The document outlines some key questions around how MFtP might work in practice, such as whether private providers could bid for publicly funded services, and how MFtP might interact with a future system of competing health insurers commissioning care. It also briefly discusses the potential relevance of the Fair Deal nursing home scheme, which already uses a form of money following the patient.
The document summarizes the key economic and political factors surrounding Ireland's "Celtic Tiger" boom and subsequent banking crisis from the late 1980s to 2010. It discusses how Ireland experienced rapid economic growth until the 2008 global financial crisis, which then led to a massive banking and property crash in Ireland. Loose fiscal policy, easy access to credit, and overreliance on construction contributed to an unsustainable boom. The crash forced Ireland to accept an EU-IMF bailout and has left lasting economic and political impacts.
1 armstrong presentation on price and tariff setting v2Oliver O'Connor
Â
Presentation at a forum I organised on Money Follows the Patient hospital payment systems 4 September 2012
John Armstrong is actuary with Aviva in Ireland
The document discusses the challenges facing Ireland's goal of introducing universal health insurance by 2016. It will be an immense undertaking requiring extensive economic, legal and administrative changes across the entire healthcare system. Many crucial details about benefits, costs, and rules still need clarification for patients, providers and insurers. Creating such vast reforms to a functioning healthcare system within just six years will be an ambitious challenge.
Application of EU Single Market rules to providers of healthcare in Ireland anticipating move to Universal Health Insurance - legal and practical arguments
Submission to Dilnot Commission on Social Care UKOliver O'Connor
Â
The document discusses Ireland's reform of financing long-term residential care. It introduced a new scheme in 2009 that shares costs between individuals and the state based on means testing, without requiring individuals to sell their homes to pay for care. The reform aimed to establish a coherent system with protections for users and choice among public and private homes meeting quality standards. Significant political commitment was needed to overcome initial opposition during the multi-year design and implementation process.
Tariff setting in Dutch Healthcare system, Johan van ManenOliver O'Connor
Â
This document discusses health care reform and tariff setting in the Netherlands. It outlines two models used to calculate tariffs. Model I calculates average costs per diagnostic treatment combination (DBC) procedure based on a sample of hospitals, while Model II calculates total costs per DBC for each hospital. The document also describes how the proportion of regulated versus negotiable hospital costs and physician fees has changed over time as the system transitioned from centralized regulation to more market-based negotiations between insurers and providers.
The document discusses plans for implementing a universal health insurance (UHI) system in Ireland. It outlines that UHI will provide equal access to healthcare for all through compulsory health insurance paid through income-based premiums. However, implementing UHI will be an immensely complex process requiring changes to healthcare funding, providers, doctors' contracts, and legal frameworks. The timeline implied for transitioning to UHI by 2016 is optimistic given capacity constraints and lack of progress on necessary precursors like reforming payment systems and hospital governance.
Initial Analysis of Universal Health Insurance 24 March 2011Oliver O'Connor
Â
This document discusses issues surrounding the implementation of universal health insurance (UHI) in Ireland. It notes that UHI would involve many stakeholders, including government officials, healthcare providers, insurers, taxpayers, and the public. It also identifies challenges such as balancing costs and services, determining funding mechanisms, ensuring fair competition between public and private insurers/providers, and providing clarity around benefits and responsibilities. The document emphasizes that successfully implementing UHI will require navigating many complex tradeoffs and choosing a model tailored to Ireland's unique circumstances.
Cost dynamics in Irish Health Care Society of Actuaries presentation Oct 2012Oliver O'Connor
Â
The document discusses rising health care costs as a threat to economies and sustainability. It notes that while aging populations contribute somewhat to increased costs, other factors like new technologies and income growth are larger drivers. International data shows health spending as a percentage of GDP has risen significantly over 40 years. While most countries see continued increases projected, Ireland is estimated to have relatively low excess cost growth. The document advocates for policies like budget caps, more competition, and supply-side reforms to manage costs over the long run.
Cost dynamics in Irish Health Care Society of Actuaries presentation Oct 2012
Â
Cambridge history presentation
1. The Celtic Tiger and the biggest
banking-property crash in world:
Politics and Economics in Ireland
Oliver OâConnor
12 March 2012
2. Irish Economy â Profile
⢠GDP
â âŹ156bn 2010; GNP, âŹ128bn
â GDP (nominal) lost âŹ33bn since 2006, huge -17%
â Bottomed out: growth now 1% - 3% by 2015?
â Ireland is relatively wealthy, even after the crash
â GDP per capita âŹ34.6bn, GNP per capita âŹ28.4bn
â Compares well internationally
4. GDP per capita PPP 2010
Assumed Irish GNP per capita 20% less than GDP per capita at 102 EU 27 = 100
5. Population Long Term Trend Up
6000
Population of Ireland 1950-2030
5000
4000
000s 3000
Actual
Forecast
2000
1000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: OECD
6. What went wrong? A play in Five Parts
⢠1987-93 â new economics, new politics, slow
improvement
⢠Arrival of âCeltic Tigerâ 1994-2000/01
⢠2001-04: slowdown, dot com crash
⢠2004-08: âBoom becomes boomierâ;
loadsamoney
⢠2008-10: Masssive crash, international crisis and
EU-IMF bailout
7. Some sources
Patrick Honohan â pre-Governor papers
http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/staff/phonohan/
European Commission
National Competitiveness Council
www.ncc.ie
National Treasury Management Agency
Post crash reports:
Governor Honohan
Regling Watson
Nyberg
On-going
Irisheconomy.ie
Karl Whelan; Kevin OâRourke; Philip Lane; Colm McCarthy
14. Banks boom â aided from abroad
Domestic loans up by 147% in four years; reaching 210% of GNP
Domestic deposits up 70%
Shortfall of âŹ176bn, financed externally in euro
16. Explosive growth
⢠âThe domestic banking sectorâmade up of
those banks that had a majority exposure to
the domestic economyâ
had, nevertheless, quadrupled its size in the
six years from 2003 to 2009, having grown
from âŹ200 billion to âŹ800 billionâ
Gary OâCallaghan, Dubrovnik International University
17. Or put another wayâŚ
⢠âBy early 2008, net foreign borrowing by Irish banks
had jumped to over 60 per cent of GDP from 10 per
cent in 2003.
⢠âUp to 2003, the property boom was financed without
significant recourse to foreign borrowing, but after
then the banks started to borrow heavily from abroad.
⢠âThis was an effortless undertaking thanks to the
removal of currency risk and went essentially
unnoticed by analysts, the focus of policy attention
having shifted away entirely from balance of payments
concerns. â
â Honohan, 2009
19. Government Money: Irish 10 Yr Bond
Spread over German Bund 1991-2010
Irish 10-Year Bond Spread over Germany since 1991
450
400
EMU
EMU
350
300
250
Basis Points
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Source: NTMA
20. Cheap moneyâŚ
⢠âreal interest rates 1998-2007 averaged minus
1 per cent, compared with over 7 per cent in
the ERM period (even excluding the crisis of
1992-3) and 3ž in the floating rate period
between the two. The fall in nominal interest
rates was even steeper. â
â Honohan 2009
21. But not so cheap after allâŚ.
With nearly
two-thirds of
that cost for
Ireland
coming from
one bank
alone, Anglo
Irish
Sourced by NCB Stockbrokers
30. Questions to discuss
⢠âWhy didnât someone see this coming?â
⢠Did euro membership cause the crash?
⢠Did Irish politics cause it?
⢠Did Irish public administration fail?
⢠What would have prevented it?
⢠Has euro membership made solving it harder?
⢠After the crash, whatâs the economic future?
⢠Whatâs the political future?