Please view our monthly report which highlights real estate activity in Alberta's two major markets as well as general economic indicators related to Alberta's economy.
At Calvert we utilize this information to assist in making prudent real estate lending decisions.
Calvert Home Mortgage's Real Estate and Economic Report for Sept 2015
1. Economic Region
Calgary Single Family
Calgary Apt. Condo
Calgary Attached
2015
Economic Region
Calgary Single Family
Calgary Apt. Condo
Calgary Attached
As of August, year to date, Apartment Condo's and Attached homes show the largest increase in Active listings, as well as the largest decrease
in year over year sales year to date. The biggest decrease in average price year over year for August is in apartment condos is 9.57%. The lack
of higher priced sales of single family homes has caused a dip in the average price.
Average single family home sale price continued the downward trend dropping below $545,000 in August. The decrease in sales
of higher priced homes over $650,000 was offset by a sharp drop in sales of property under $450,000 allowing the average price
to remain stable during August.
-4.25%
3,503 -23.25% 6,110 -2.54% 57.47% -20.66% 1,313 55.41% 397,853$ -2.20%
2,517 -30.70% 5,214 -5.87% 49.10% -24.69% 1,353 39.92% 305,126$
-1.30%
AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
9,924 -22.97% 17,129 -9.14% 57.87% -14.91% 3,690 25.65% 544,914$ -2.05%
17,146 -24.31% 30,835 -9.77% 55.64% -15.51% 7,152 22.42% 472,289$
388,198$ -6.88%
YEAR TO DATE (2015): from January 1st , 2015 to the last day of August, 2015
TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
Real Estate and Economic Report
Sales New Listings
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Active Listings Average Price
Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
7,178 -10.14% 461,814$ -2.19%2,066
-9.57%
434 -24.13%
from the 1st of August, 2015 to the last day of August, 2015
-24.85% 3,464 -20.26% 59.64% -5.75%
1,179 -20.93% 1,992 -6.35% 59.19% -15.57%
- Calgary Real Estate Market -
REPORTING PERIOD:
A slowing of new listings to the market, compared to last year, is assiting with supporting the average prices from further declines,
particularly in the detached single family home segment.
3,709 5.43% 538,016$ -3.46%
292 -40.53% 543 -20.61% 53.78% -25.09% 1,292 13.63% 291,394$
MONTH END
663 -14.01% 65.46% -11.77% 1,317 28.49%
$459,035 $465,202 $479,880
$517,333
$558,738 $544,914
$250,000
$350,000
$450,000
$550,000
$650,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Calgary)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Single Family Home Comparisons (Calgary)
Sales (Total) New Listings (Total) Active Listings (Avg.)
2. Total Residential
Single Family
Apartment Condo
Duplex Row House
2015
Total Residential
Single Family
Apartment Condo
Duplex/Row House
The spread between new listings and total sales continued to increase in August. Duplex/Row Houses continue to see the largest
percentage increase in new listings for August year over year and year to date followed by apartment condominiums. Duplex/Row
Houses have managed to show the highest increase in average sale price year over year to date.
1,003 2.66% 1,808 31.97% 55.50% -22.11% 356,798$ 4.10%
7,130 -10.99% 13,956 12.33% 50.00% -21.10% 438,553$ 1.81%
3,371 -14.81% 7,401 17.27% 44.88% -27.47% 252,896$ 1.64%
YEAR TO DATE (2015): from January 1st, 2015 to the last day of August, 2015
AVERAGE Y/Y%
11,716 -10.33% 23,724 14.68% 48.36% -22.94%
TOTAL Y/Y%
372,429$ 2.34%
TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
433 -13.40% 897 23.55% 48.00% -30.43% 254,672$ -2.79%
122 -7.58% 221 55.63% 55.00% -40.86% 354,409$ 1.32%
1.03%
884 -13.25% 1,741 28.58% 51.00% -32.00% 439,829$ 1.82%
1,465 -13.72% 2,926 26.89% 50.07% -32.00% 372,256$
TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE
REPORTING PERIOD: from the 1st of August, 2015 to the last day of August, 2015
Sales New Listings
Y/Y%
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Average Price
- Edmonton Real Estate Market -
The days on market are managing to remain steady around 42 days on market for single family homes. Good properties priced
appropriately continue to sell quickly. Days on market are much higher in the SW(41), SE(40) compared to NW(36) & NE(31).
August saw a large drop in sales for property priced between $200,000 and $400,000. Previously from January to July this price
range had not seen this large of a drop in sales. This is reflective of the large drop in year over year sales of Apartment
Condominiums and Attached homes which tend to make up the majority of this price range.
0
10
20
30
40
50
Single Family Home Average Days on Market (Calgary)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
> $100 $100 -
$199
$200 -
$299
$300 -$
349
$350 -
$399
$400 -
$449
$450 -
$499
$500 -
$549
$550 -
$599
$600 -
$649
$650 -
$699
$700 -
$799
$800 -
$899
$900 -
$999
$1M +
Aug. 2014
Aug. 2015
Number of Sales by Price Range (Calgary Metro)
3. Following a drop in average days on market from 58 to 44 between January to March 2015 we have now seen a steady increase
since then to 54 average days on market. Apartment condos are the highest at 56 average days on market.
The Calgary Home Price index has been in mostly a downward trend since July 2014 where as the Edmonton home Price Index
continued to increase until its recent decline in July. Since 2005 the TSX100 only increased 50% compared to the 110% for
Calgary and the 80% for Edmonton showing that real estate continues to be a strong investment.
The sharp drop in sales for August was not matched with a similar drop in new listings. A break from the trend of previous years.
If the new listings continue to stay on the same trend into the fall expect that the average price will begin to decrease.
Since 2011 the average home price in Edmonton has increased an average of just over 4% per year since 2011 with a high of
5.4% between 2013 and 2014. The current YTD increase over 2014 is 1.58%.
$383,226 $379,485
$392,446
$409,438
$431,741
$438,553
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000
$420,000
$440,000
$460,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Edmonton)
1,084
1,264
1,136
941
854
773
782
623
419
528
648
923
1,022
1,179
1,198
1,125
983
857
863
673
436
485
747
917
1,147
1,213
1,324
1,158
1,019
967
850
717
439
390
547
876
1,001
1,078
1,243
1,111
884
1,663
1,943
1,627
1,455
1,380
1,266
1,082
769
409
955
1,115
1,467
1,569
1,911
1,586
1,491
1,349
1,268
1,059
783
415
1,070
1,082
1,585
1,818
2,085
1,829
1,601
1,354
1,337
1,256
794
534
1,298
1,428
1,883
1,964
1,974
1,886
1,782
1,741
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Single Family Home Comparisons (Edmonton)
Sales (Total) New Listings (Total)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Average Days on Market (Edmonton Metro)
100
125
150
175
200
Calgary Home Price Index
Edmonton Home Price Index
Home Price Index Comparison
4. Alberta
Canada
Unemployment Rate
Jul-15
Retail Trade
Jun-15
Total Mortgages
Jun-15
The number of total
mortgages in Alberta
The number of total mortgages in Alberta has continued to increase, however, number and ratio of mortgage arrears in 2015 has
been lower on average than the previous 4 years even with a slight increase in May and June.
Employees have continued to earn more than they did at this time last year, however average weekly earnings are down since they
peaked in February and March this year. Reduced overtime hours in the energy sector and cutbacks are a key factor.
2.40%
4.40%
Weekly Earnings
Jun-15
2.0% (F Jan/15) 0.8% (F Mar/15)
-0.80% -0.50%
Q1 Q2
TOTAL
2014
2014
ATB (F)Alberta 2015
Canada 2015
in Alberta
in Alberta 6.00%
Mortgages 90 day
Arrears June 15
in Canada
in Canada
571,065
4,668,787
-3.73%in Alberta 0.34%
in Canada -0.13%
7.00% 10.00%
1.71%
Housing starts (000's)
Aug-15
0.19%
in Canada 956.48$
12,656 -4.58%
1.91%
1,535
1,153.35$
-14.63%in Alberta
in Alberta
in Canada
1.41%
0.69%
21.67%
Real GDP Growth Annual Rate
Y/Y%
*the following information is based on current available data from: http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/, www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/ and RBC Economic
Outlook,http://www.cba.ca/en/component/content/publication/69-statistics, http://www.atb.com/SiteCollectionDocuments
Real GDP Growth
TOTAL Y/Y%
7,723 2.17%
Apr-15
Net Migration to AB
35.61 -19.22%
- Alberta Economic Indicators -
$990.98
$1,034.17
$1,070.47
$1,107.97
$1,149.18 $1,145.90
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Alberta's Average Weekly Earnings
0.20%
0.23%
0.25%
0.28%
0.30%
0.33%
0.35%
0.38%
0.40%
M
o
r
t
g
a
g
e
s
% of Arrears to Total Number of
Mortgages AB
% of Arrears to Total Number of
Mortgages CA
Mortgage Arrears Ratio; Canada vs Alberta
5. Notes:
- On 15 July, the Bank lowered the overnight rate target to 1/2 per cent.
- Total CPI inflation in Canada has been around 1 per cent; core inflation has been close to 2 per cent.
- The Bank expects real GDP growth of just over 1 per cent in 2015 and about 2 1/2 per cent in 2016 and 2017.
Resources
http://www.rbc.com/e
http://www.bankofcan
http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/
http://www.creb.com/
http://www.ereb.com/REALTORSAssociationOfEdmonton.html
http://www.capp.ca/Pages/default.aspx
http://homepriceindex.ca/hpi_tool_en.html
http://www.cba.ca/en/component/content/publication/69-statistics
http://www.finance.alberta.ca/aboutalberta/
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx?langue=EN
CND resale of homes has picked up in Toronto and Vancouver while they have declined in Calgary and Edmonton.
The price gap between WCS and WTI reached its lowest point in July. This is a big benefit to the majority of Alberta producers as
WCS is what is mostly produced in Alberta and shipped out at the US dollar rate and then converted to Canadian Dollars.
Producers are still cutting jobs or coming up with creative cutbacks to trim costs to their companies.
Bank of Canada Released its Monetary Policy report for July 2015. The key Highlights are:
- Global growth faltered in early 2015. It is expected to strengthen over the second half of 2015, averaging about 3 per cent for the
- The projection for growth in Canada in 2015 has been marked down, with real GDP estimated to have contracted modestly in
the first half of the year. Growth in Canada is projected to resume in the third quarter and begin to exceed potential again in the
fourth quarter
- The Bank anticipates that the economy will return to full capacity and inflation to 2 per cent on a sustained basis in the first half of
$-
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
WCS OIL PRICES
WTI OIL PRICES
WTI-WCS Price Differential
WTI and WCS Pricing and Price Differential (US$)