Calvert Home Mortgage provides a simplified breakdown of statistics and and information from the Calgary and Edmonton real estate markets and how they are affecting current home prices. You will also find the most recent statistics available for key Economic Fundamentals that influence the lending industry and real estate markets in Alberta.
Calvert Home Mortgage Economic Report for October 2015
1. Economic Region
Calgary Single Family
Calgary Apt. Condo
Calgary Attached
2015
Economic Region
Calgary Single Family
Calgary Apt. Condo
Calgary Attached
As of September, year to date, Apartment Condos and Attached homes show the largest increase in Active listings. The decrease in year over
year average sale price in September for Single Family and Apartment Condos were down nearly 10% year or year. The lower amount of
higher priced sales of Single Family homes has caused a dip in the Average Price and high supply has affected Apartment Condos.
The Average single family home sale price continued the downward trend dropping below $525,000 in September pulling the yearly average
down further. The decrease in sales of higher priced homes and especially those over $1 million is having a negative impact on the average
sale price.
-4.85%
3,830 -25.24% 6,854 -2.42% 55.97% -22.93% 1,327 53.81% 397,210$ -2.13%
2,791 -31.66% 5,904 -5.58% 48.06% -26.05% 1,354 37.20% 303,677$
-1.58%
AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
10,980 -23.40% 19,236 -8.64% 57.01% -15.88% 3,718 24.44% 542,621$ -2.92%
18,948 -25.12% 34,625 -10.18% 54.74% -16.13% 7,196 18.89% 470,991$
from January 1st , 2015 to the last day of September, 2015
TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
Real Estate and Economic Report
Sales New Listings
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Active Listings Average Price
-32.05% 3,790 -13.41% 47.55% -21.53%
1,059 -26.97% 2,107 -4.40% 50.26% -23.60%
TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
3,941 16.08% 524,276$ -9.56%
274 -39.38% 690 -3.36% 39.71% -37.27% 1,358 18.81% 292,086$
AVERAGE
7,550 -2.45% 460,611$ -3.80%1,802
-9.64%
from the 1st of September, 2015 to the last day of September, 2015
- Calgary Real Estate Market -
REPORTING PERIOD:
September saw an increase in the number of Active and New Listings in the market while at the same time sales dropped slightly. A
continuance of this trend will have a further negative impact on home prices.
744 -1.46% 43.95% -40.64% 1,432 43.06%327 -41.50%
Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
392,064$ -1.51%
YEAR TO DATE (2015):
$459,035 $465,202 $479,880
$517,333
$558,738 $542,621
$250,000
$350,000
$450,000
$550,000
$650,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Calgary)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Single Family Home Comparisons (Calgary)
Sales (Total) New Listings (Total) Active Listings (Avg.)
2. Total Residential
Single Family
Apartment Condo
Duplex Row House
2015
Total Residential
Single Family
Apartment Condo
Duplex/Row House
The spread between new listings and total sales continued to increase in Setpember. Duplex/Row Houses saw a 64% increase in new listings
for September year over year and 355 year to date. Yet, despite these trends, Duplex/Row Houses have managed to show the highest
increase in average sale price year over year to date.
1,146 3.43% 2,080 35.42% 55.22% -23.42% 357,620$ 4.12%
8,003 -11.37% 15,616 13.50% 50.33% -22.30% 437,841$ 1.49%
3,782 -14.88% 8,174 17.92% 45.78% -28.10% 252,902$ 1.52%
YEAR TO DATE (2015): from January 1st, 2015 to the last day of September, 2015
AVERAGE Y/Y%
13,178 -10.54% 26,501 15.83% 48.83% -23.96%
TOTAL Y/Y%
372,034$ 1.99%
TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y%
411 -15.43% 773 24.48% 53.00% -32.05% 252,953$ 0.58%
143 9.16% 272 63.86% 53.00% -32.91% 364,203$ 4.28%
-0.75%
873 -14.41% 1,660 24.34% 53.00% -30.26% 432,150$ 1.48%
1,462 -12.14% 2,777 26.75% 52.65% -30.68% 368,874$
TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE
REPORTING PERIOD: from the 1st of September, 2015 to the last day of September, 2015
Sales New Listings
Y/Y%
Sales to New
Listings Ratio
Average Price
- Edmonton Real Estate Market -
The days on market are managing to remain steady around 40 days on market for single family homes. Good properties priced appropriately
continue to sell quickly. Days on market are much higher in the SE(40), SW(38) compared to NW(36) & NE(31).
September saw a large drop in sales for property priced between $200,000 and $449,000. This is the second consecutive month we have
seen this. This is reflective of the large drop in year over year sales of Apartment Condominiums and Attached homes which tend to make up
the majority of this price range. Sales of homes over $1 million also dropped off significantly.
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Single Family Home Average Days on Market (Calgary)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
> $100 $100 -
$199
$200 -
$299
$300 -$
349
$350 -
$399
$400 -
$449
$450 -
$499
$500 -
$549
$550 -
$599
$600 -
$649
$650 -
$699
$700 -
$799
$800 -
$899
$900 -
$999
$1M +
Sept. 2014
Sept. 2015
Number of Sales by Price Range (Calgary Metro)
3. Following a drop in average days on market from 58 to 44 between January to March 2015 we have now seen a steady increase since then
with a slight dip in September to 53 from August's 54 average days on market.
Sales remained steady in September as New Listings dropped slightly. A welcome change from August and a similar trend of previous years
allowing the Average Sale Price to still be up a modest 1.99% over September of last year.
Since 2011 the average home price in Edmonton has increased an average of just over 4% per year since 2011 with a high of 5.4% between
2013 and 2014. Increases in 2015 have now flattened out compared to the more vigorous start to the year.
The Calgary Home Price index has been in mostly a downward trend since July 2014 where as the Edmonton home Price Index continued to
increase until its recent decline in July. The Calgary index has been fluctuating up and down since April 2015. Since 2005 the TSX100 only
increased 50% compared to the 110% for Calgary and the 80% for Edmonton showing that real estate continues to be a strong investment.
$383,226 $379,485
$392,446
$409,438
$431,812
$437,841
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000
$420,000
$440,000
$460,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Edmonton)
1,264
1,136
941
854
773
782
623
419
528
648
923
1,022
1,179
1,198
1,125
983
857
863
673
436
485
747
917
1,147
1,213
1,324
1,158
1,019
1,020
850
717
439
390
547
876
1,001
1,078
1,243
1,111
884
873
1,943
1,627
1,455
1,380
1,266
1,082
769
409
955
1,115
1,467
1,569
1,911
1,586
1,491
1,349
1,268
1,059
783
415
1,070
1,082
1,585
1,818
2,085
1,829
1,601
1,354
1,335
1,256
794
534
1,298
1,428
1,883
1,964
1,974
1,886
1,782
1,741
1,660
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Single Family Home Comparisons (Edmonton)
Sales (Total) New Listings (Total)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Average Days on Market (Edmonton Metro)
100
125
150
175
200
Calgary Home Price Index
Edmonton Home Price Index
Home Price Index Comparison
4. Alberta
Canada
Unemployment Rate
Jul-15
Retail Trade (mill. $'s)
Jul-15
Total Mortgages
Jun-15
The number of total
mortgages in Alberta
Weekly Earnings
Jul-15
0.8% (F Mar/15) - 0.7(F Oct/15)
0.50% 1.2%(F Sep/15)
Q2 Q4
TOTAL
$955.02
1.41%
0.69%
27.69%
11,472 1.83%
Jul-15
Net Migration to AB
36.95 -21.55%
2014
2014
ATB (F)Alberta 2015
Canada 2015 RBC (F)2.40%
4.40%
in Alberta
in Alberta 6.50%
Mortgages 90 day
Arrears July 15
in Canada
in Canada
571065
4668787
-3.68%in Alberta 6.392
in Canada 43.345
7.10% 11.27%
1.78%
Housing starts (000's)
Sep-15
-1.53%
in Canada
12,542 -4.62%
1.67%
1,541
$1,120.84
-11.18%in Alberta
in Alberta
in Canada
Real GDP Growth Annual Rate
Y/Y%
*the following information is based on current available data from: http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/, www.statcan.gc.ca/dai-quo/ and RBC Economic
Outlook,http://www.cba.ca/en/component/content/publication/69-statistics, http://www.atb.com/SiteCollectionDocuments
Real GDP Growth
TOTAL Y/Y%
- Alberta Economic Indicators -
The ratio of the total number of mortgages to 90 day arrears has decreased in Canada and flattened out in Alberta after a slight increase in
May 2015. The overall number of mortgages in Alberta and Canada continues to increase.
With the cutback of overtime hours in the energy sector as well as restructuring of salaries we are seeing the impact to the average weekly
earnings in Alberta, which is not far from where it was in 2013. Canada is still well below the Alberta average.
$990.98 $1,034.17 $1,070.47 $1,107.97 $1,149.18 $1,120.84
$868.07 $883.91 $908.37 $930.28 $948.40 $955.02
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
Average Weekly Earnings Alberta's Average Weekly Earnings Canada's Average Weekly Earnings
0.20%
0.23%
0.25%
0.28%
0.30%
0.33%
0.35%
0.38%
0.40%
2014-05
2014-06
2014-07
2014-08
2014-09
2014-10
2014-11
2014-12
2015-01
2015-02
2015-03
2015-04
2015-05
2015-06
2015-07
M
o
r
t
g
a
g
e
s
% of Arrears to Total Number of
Mortgages AB
% of Arrears to Total Number of
Mortgages CA
Mortgage Arrears Ratio; Canada vs Alberta