The document summarizes key concepts relating to current account balances and international investment positions. It defines current account balances and their components, and explains that a current account surplus means exports exceed imports while a deficit means the opposite. It then discusses factors that can cause a current account deficit, whether deficits are good or bad, and policies to reduce deficits. The document also defines international investment positions and their importance. It concludes by summarizing a case study on the deterioration of the US current account balance and its transition to becoming a net debtor nation.
Term paper written for graduate economics course covering the causes of the 2008 global financial crisis and outlining the September 2009 G-20 meeting as it related to addressing the issue.
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CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCESOF THE TRADE DEFICITAN OVERVIEW.docxcravennichole326
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
OF THE TRADE DEFICIT:
AN OVERVIEW
March 2000
In recent years, the U.S. trade deficit has grown very large by historical standards,
prompting concerns that it is damaging or may pose a threat to the economy. The
Senate Committee on Finance asked the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to carry
out a study of the trade deficit, its causes, and its effects on the economy. The
committee also asked CBO to examine the effects of various federal policies on the
trade deficit—especially those that might be considered to reduce or eliminate it.
This memorandum summarizes the results of that effort.
Bruce Arnold of CBO's Microeconomic and Financial Studies Division wrote
the memorandum under the direction of Roger Hitchner, Robert Dennis, and David
Moore. Helpful comments were received from Doug Hamilton, Juann Hung, Kim
Kowalewski, Preston Miller, John Peterson, John Sabelhaus and Tom Woodward,
within CBO, and from Paul Wonnacott of Middlebury College and Catherine Mann
of the Institute for International Economics. Jenny Au prepared the figures. Sherry
Snyder edited the memorandum, Leah Mazade proofread it, and Rae Wiseman
prepared it for publication. Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for CBO's
World Wide Web site (www.cbo.gov).
Questions about the analysis should be addressed to Bruce Arnold.
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1
WHAT IS THE CURRENT-ACCOUNT BALANCE? 5
WHAT CAUSES THE CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICIT? 6
A Long Decline in Domestic Saving 7
The Business Cycle 12
Growth of Investment in the 1990s 12
DO INFLOWS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL HARM THE ECONOMY? 14
Effects on GDP, GNP, and Wages 14
Effects on Different Sectors of the Economy 15
Concerns About Foreign Finance and Economic Stability 16
SHOULD ANYTHING BE DONE ABOUT THE
CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICIT? 19
CONCLUSION 24
TABLES
1. Effects of Various Trade-Related Policies on the
Current-Account Deficit 21
FIGURES
1. The U.S. Balance of Trade, 1970-1999 2
2. Saving, Investment, and the Current-Account Balance 8
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Since World War II, the United States has supported agreements among nations to
eliminate barriers to international trade and investment. Despite occasional
resistance, that support has generally reflected a public consensus about the benefits
to be gained from free trade. Since long before the war, the United States had run an
almost unbroken string of trade surpluses—that is, an excess of exports over
imports—and the war damaged or destroyed much of the most significant
international competition for U.S. industry. Consequently, before 1970, U.S.
industry seemed to have little to fear and much to gain from free trade.
After 1970, however, the almost unbroken string of trade surpluses turned into
one of trade deficits, and in the 1980s and 1990s, those deficits grew quite large (see
Figure 1). Opponents of freer U.S. trade point to the deficits as evidence of mistaken
U.S. and unfair foreign trad ...
Term paper written for graduate economics course covering the causes of the 2008 global financial crisis and outlining the September 2009 G-20 meeting as it related to addressing the issue.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCESOF THE TRADE DEFICITAN OVERVIEW.docxcravennichole326
CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
OF THE TRADE DEFICIT:
AN OVERVIEW
March 2000
In recent years, the U.S. trade deficit has grown very large by historical standards,
prompting concerns that it is damaging or may pose a threat to the economy. The
Senate Committee on Finance asked the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to carry
out a study of the trade deficit, its causes, and its effects on the economy. The
committee also asked CBO to examine the effects of various federal policies on the
trade deficit—especially those that might be considered to reduce or eliminate it.
This memorandum summarizes the results of that effort.
Bruce Arnold of CBO's Microeconomic and Financial Studies Division wrote
the memorandum under the direction of Roger Hitchner, Robert Dennis, and David
Moore. Helpful comments were received from Doug Hamilton, Juann Hung, Kim
Kowalewski, Preston Miller, John Peterson, John Sabelhaus and Tom Woodward,
within CBO, and from Paul Wonnacott of Middlebury College and Catherine Mann
of the Institute for International Economics. Jenny Au prepared the figures. Sherry
Snyder edited the memorandum, Leah Mazade proofread it, and Rae Wiseman
prepared it for publication. Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for CBO's
World Wide Web site (www.cbo.gov).
Questions about the analysis should be addressed to Bruce Arnold.
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1
WHAT IS THE CURRENT-ACCOUNT BALANCE? 5
WHAT CAUSES THE CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICIT? 6
A Long Decline in Domestic Saving 7
The Business Cycle 12
Growth of Investment in the 1990s 12
DO INFLOWS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL HARM THE ECONOMY? 14
Effects on GDP, GNP, and Wages 14
Effects on Different Sectors of the Economy 15
Concerns About Foreign Finance and Economic Stability 16
SHOULD ANYTHING BE DONE ABOUT THE
CURRENT-ACCOUNT DEFICIT? 19
CONCLUSION 24
TABLES
1. Effects of Various Trade-Related Policies on the
Current-Account Deficit 21
FIGURES
1. The U.S. Balance of Trade, 1970-1999 2
2. Saving, Investment, and the Current-Account Balance 8
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Since World War II, the United States has supported agreements among nations to
eliminate barriers to international trade and investment. Despite occasional
resistance, that support has generally reflected a public consensus about the benefits
to be gained from free trade. Since long before the war, the United States had run an
almost unbroken string of trade surpluses—that is, an excess of exports over
imports—and the war damaged or destroyed much of the most significant
international competition for U.S. industry. Consequently, before 1970, U.S.
industry seemed to have little to fear and much to gain from free trade.
After 1970, however, the almost unbroken string of trade surpluses turned into
one of trade deficits, and in the 1980s and 1990s, those deficits grew quite large (see
Figure 1). Opponents of freer U.S. trade point to the deficits as evidence of mistaken
U.S. and unfair foreign trad ...
Provides an overview of the reseach of Ghosh and Ramakrishnan on current account deficits: what they are, how they are measured and whether they matter.
Can the United States Continue to Run Current Account Deficits Ind.docxhumphrieskalyn
Can the United States Continue to Run Current Account Deficits Indefinitely?
The United States has benefitted from a surplus of saving over investment in many areas of the world, which has provided a supply of funds. This surplus of saving has been available to the United States because foreigners have remained willing to loan that saving to the United States in the form of acquiring U.S. assets, such as Treasury securities, which have accommodated the current account deficits. During the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s, for example, the United States experi- enced a decline in its rate of saving and an increase in the rate of domestic invest- ment. The large increase in the U.S. current account deficit would not have been possible without the accommodating inflows of foreign capital coming from nations with high saving rates, such as Japan, China, and Middle-Eastern nations, as seen in Table 10.5.
For example, China has been the fastest growing supplier of capital to the United States during 2001–2010. This is partly because of China’s exchange-rate pol- icy of keeping the value of its yuan low (cheap) so as to export goods to the United States and thus create jobs for its workers (see Chapter 15). In order to offset a rise in the value of the yuan against the dollar, the central bank of China has purchased dollars with yuan. Rather than hold dollars, which earn no interest, China’s central bank has converted much of its dollar holdings into U.S. securities that do pay inter- est. This situation has put the United States in a unique position to benefit from the willingness of China to finance its current-account deficit. Simply put, the
TABLE 10.5
FOREIGN HOLDERS OF U.S. SECURITIES AS OF 2007
United States can “print money” that the Chinese hold in order to finance its excess spending. The buildup of China’s dollar reserves helps to support the U.S. stock and bond markets and permits the U.S. government to incur expenditure increases and tax reductions without increases in domestic U.S. interest rates that would otherwise take place. However, some analysts are con- cerned that at some point Chinese investors may view the increasing level of U.S. foreign debt as unsustain- able or more risky and thus suddenly shift their capital elsewhere. They also express concern that the United States will become more politically reliant on China who might use its large holdings of U.S. securities as leverage against policies it opposes.
Can the United States run current account deficits indefinitely and thus rely on inflows of foreign capital? Since the current account deficit arises mainly because foreigners desire to purchase American assets, there is
Chapter 10 361
Billions of Country Dollars
Japan $1,197
Percent of World Total
12.2% 9.4 9.4 7.6 7.2 4.9 4.0
45.3
100.0%
China United Kingdom Cayman Islands Luxembourg Canada Belgium Other 4,418
World Total $9,772
922
921
740
703
475
396
Source: U.S. Treasury Department, Report on Foreign ...
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1. Principles of International Economics
Prof. Birgit Eitel
Georg‐Simon‐Ohm Hochschule of Applied Sciences
Ahmad Abo-Obid
6th June 2011
SS 2011
2. 1- Current account
Definition
Components
Cases
Factors Cause Deficit
Deficit is Good or Bad
Policies Reduce Deficit
Concept of Deterioration
2- International investment position
Definition
Important
3- Case Study 10-4
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 2
3. one of primary components of the balance of payments.
the sum of the
balance of trade (exports minus imports of goods and services)
net factor income (such as interest and dividends)
net transfer payments (such as foreign aid).
one of major measures of the nature of a country's foreign trade.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 3
4. Current account surplus and deficit
Current account surplus means exports of goods and services, investment
income and transfers exceed imports and outflows.
Current account deficit means imports of goods and services, and outflows
are greater than exports and inflows.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 4
5. Factors which cause a current account Deficit in the
balance of Payments
Fixed Exchange Rate
If the currency is overvalued, imports will be cheaper and therefore there will be a
higher Q of imports.
Economic Growth
If there is an increase in AD and National Income increases, people will have more
disposable income to consume goods. If domestic producers can not meet the
domestic AD, consumers will have to imports goods from abroad.
Decline in Competitiveness.
If exports become less competitive, due to lower productivity then demand for
exports fall. This is likely to explain a long term deficit.
E.g. the UK has lost comparative advantage for the manufacture of many
goods to Asian countries like China.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 5
6. Higher inflation
This makes exports less competitive and imports more competitive.
Recession in other countries.
If the UK’s main trading partners experience negative economic growth then they
will buy less of its exports, worsening the current account.
Borrowing money
If countries are borrowing money to invest.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 6
7. Current account deficit is good or bad?
It depends on whether the borrowed funds are used to pay for consumption
or investment.
a deficit is not necessarily a bad thing for an economy, especially for an
economy in the developing stages or under reform: an economy sometimes
has to spend money to make money.
However, a problematic deficit can result if a government has not planned
out a sound economic policy and used its debts for consumption purposes,
not future growth.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 7
8. Policies to reduce a balance of Payments Deficit
Devaluation.
This involves lowering the value of the currency against others.
Deflation
If government reduces AD by raising interest rates or increasing taxes then people
will have less money to spend so they reduce consumption of imports.
Supply Side Policies
These can improve the competitiveness of the economy and exporters, but this will
take time to have effect
Protectionism
Increased tariffs will reduce imports and improve the current account.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 8
9. Deterioration in the current account
means that the value of exports has increased at a slower rate than the
value of imports. Therefore there could have been an increase in the deficit
or the surplus could have changed into a deficit.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 9
10. Measures the total amount and the distribution of a nation’s assets abroad
and foreign assets in the nation at the end of year.
Summarizes one nation’s overall quantity of assets and liabilities against
the rest of the world.
Shows whether the nation is a net debtor or a net creditor.
Indicates sensitive items, such as short term debt held by foreigners which
could be liquidated quickly, straining finances.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 10
11. 3- Case Study 10-4: The Deterioration of U.S Current Account Balance &
Net International Investment Position
• From the table, we see that the U.S
net international position deteriorated
sharply from +$366 billion at the end
of 1980 to -$223 billion in 1990.
• The amount of U.S. assets abroad
increases but Foreign assets in the
U.S increased at double.
• Important points from Table 10.5. :
First, U.S become a net debtor nation.
Second, U.S assets abroad are
smaller than foreign assets in U.S .
Table 10.5. The U.S IIP, Selected Years: 1980-2000
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 11
12. 3- Case Study 10-4: The Deterioration of U.S Current Account Balance &
Net International Investment Position
Figure 10.2:
shows the sharp increase in the U.S.
current account deficit after 1997 and
its net international investment
position after 1999.
Shows that the U.S. net investment
position become negative (making the
U.S a net debtor nation) in 1986 and
increased so rapidly after 1999 as to
make the U.S the world’s most
indebted nation in 2006.
The U.S. had small CA surpluses only
in 1980, 1981, and 1991, and CA
deficits in all other years, and CA
deficits increased rapidly after1997.
The U.S. NIIP was positive until 1986
and negative thereafter, and it
Figure 10.2 U.S CAB & NIIP, 1980-2006(billion dollars) increased sharply after 1999.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 12
13. US consumer spending has been rising :
So the US has been increasing the value of imports bought into the economy.
Decline in competitiveness :
US manufactured goods have been losing comparative advantage to Asian economies.
Dollar Relatively High compared to current account deficit:
Dollar has not devalued as much as you would expect for an economy with a large
current account deficit. The US has remained an attractive location for Capital
investment.
Therefore the inflow of capital has financed the current account deficit and has
encouraged America to keep buying imports and the low interest rates from the
inflow of capital have encouraged consumer borrowing and spending.
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 13
14. Thank you for listening
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 14
15. [1] Herman E. Daly, Joshua Farley, Ecological Economics: Principles And Applications,
Island Press, 2003
[2] Carbaugh,Robert,“The Balance of Payments“, International Economics, 9th Edition,
South-Western, 2004, Chap. 11
[3]Salvatore, Dominick, “Balance of Payments”, Introduction to International Economics,
2th Edition, 2005. Chap. 10
[4] Heakal, Reem, “Understanding The Current Account In The Balance Of
Payments”,[Article published online: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/03/061803.asp].
[5] Heakal, Reem, “Current Account Deficits: Government Investment Or Irresponsibility? ”
[Article published online: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/012804.asp].
[6] Ghosh, Atish , „Do Current Account Deficits Matter? “Article published December 2006,
Volume 43, Number 4 online:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/12/basics.htm].
[7]Pettinger, Tejvan, „Factors which cause a current account Deficit in the balance of
Payments” [Article published online:
http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/bop/cause-of-deficit.html].
[8]Pettinger, Tejvan, „ Policies to reduce a balance of Payments Deficit“[Article published
online: http://www.economicshelp.org/macroeconomics/bop/policies-to-reduce-deficit.html]
[9]Pettinger, Tejvan, “What Causes the US Current Account Deficit.” “[Article published
online: http://econ.economicshelp.org/2007/03/what-causes-us-current-account-
deficit.html]
Current Account Balance &
International Investment Position 15