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Broadband Internet
The “Railroad” of Our Era
Trevor Textor
Rural IT & Telecom Consultant
Principal, Textor Corp.
-- Fostering “it just works” rural data communications systems
that enable clients to focus on their core business --
www.textor.ca
ca.linkedin.com/in/trevortextor
Agenda
• The new themes of the internet: Sharing & Contribution
• What is Broadband?
• Broadband’s Impacts (Economic, Social)
• Broadband Growth & Drivers
• Role of Wireless (mobile) in Broadband
• Understanding wireless
• The components of Broadband Costs
• Sharing & an Open Access Network business model
• Canada’s status for sharing (cell plan comparison)
• Roles of the regulators (CRTC, IC)
• Ideas for promoting Broadband growth
Broadband is the “glue” for:
• Convergence
– Internet Protocol; consolidation of
multiple cables to a single cable
• Increasing Resource Utilization
– Move of compute to data centres
(Cloud services)
– Virtual Machines
– Big Data Analytics
– Sharing Economy (AirBnb, Car2Go, etc.)
The Sharing Revolution
~Pre-2010 “Couch Potato” Internet worked fine
– Example Asymmetric Service:
20 Mbps 1 Mbps
New Reality “I have a voice”
– Less Asymmetric OK
20Mbps 5 Mbps
– Ideally Symmetric
20Mpbs 20 Mbps
Contribution
• Basic level of service target in bandwidth
(Mbps)
• Definitions of “Basic service” from:
– Akamai: 4 Mbps @ <35ms uncongested last
mile
– FCC (US):
25 Mbps 3 Mbps
– Industry Canada:
5 Mbps 1 Mbps
Broadband Internet
Broadband Impact (Benefits)
Economic Innovation
Productivity
Social Access to services
Healthcare
Environmental Efficient energy consumption
Broadband’s Economic Impact
• Doubling broadband speeds for an economy
can add 0.3 % to GDP growth
Canada = +$5.5 Billion/year
Federal Funding for
Broadband Development = $350M
Broadband’s Social Impact
(Democracy)
• Social Media catalyzes pro-democracy
movements - Twitter Revolutions
• Requires Mobile Broadband Internet
• United Nations Broadband Commission cites
broadband
“stimulate[s]
democracy”
Broadband is Critical Infrastructure
• “… broadband service … must carry the same
obligations as so many of the other vital
services do.” President Obama
• “… a foundation stone of modern society….”
(United Nations)
• “a basic human right” (popular opinion)
• All developed countries now have a
broadband plan and committed government
dollars.
Broadband – This era’s “railroad”
Video Killed the Internet (Star?)
• Broadband internet usage is doubling every
1.5 years.
• “Cable TV Replacement”
– 52% of internet traffic (37% Netflix)
• Per Session Stream Requirements:
– HD (1080p) 2 Mbps
– UltraHD (4K) 12 Mbps
Telepresence (The Future)
• Immersive Video – like you’re there
– Telemedicine (“house calls”)
– Business Meetings
• Per Session Stream Requirements:
– HD (1080p) 20 Mbps
– UltraHD (4K) 120 Mbps
• Why the world needs to endlessly build more
broadband (fiber, towers)
Telepresence (The Future)
• Per Session Stream Requirements:
– HD (1080p) 20 Mbps
– UltraHD (4K) 120 Mbps
• Why the world needs to endlessly build more
broadband (fiber, towers)
• Bandwidth demand outstripped supply
Not naming any names… (cough) Netflix
• Valid technical
reasons for priority
• Bob Kahn, co-inventor
of IP calls Net
Neutrality a “slogan”
• Best solution is to have abundant bandwidth
Net Neutrality
Wireless
• Majority (60%) of Internet Access is mobile
(wireless)
• Cooper’s Law is the world’s longest running
growth S-curve (120 years):
The ability to transmit different
radio communications at one time
and in the same place has
doubled every 30 months since
1895
What is Wireless?
• Wave of energy
• Transmission of a minimum level of energy
dictates packet error rate and ultimately
bandwidth
• Choice of frequency
dictates:
– Range
– Bandwidth
Need more wireless infrastructure!
Services
Voice Video
Web Browsing Email
Active Components 15-30%
Economic Life: 5 - 7 years
(radios, routers, switches)
Passive Components 70-85%
Economic Life: 15 – 25 years
(Spectrum, Civil engineering works;
towers, trenches, laying duct/cable)
Cost of Broadband
Critical Passive Components for:
• Wireless = Towers / Spectrum
– Bandwidth bounded by
Tower Weight Support
Capacity
• Wired = Fiber / Conduit
(trenching)
Cost of Broadband
Spectrum Licensing
Beginning to Not Make Sense
Open Access Network Model (OAN)
Leveling the playing field
• Model for sharing costs
• Company that owns passive component not
allowed to own active component
• Maximizes sharing/utilization of components
• Encourages competition at the service level!
Open Access Network Model (OAN)
Savings Estimates By Level of Sharing
Sharing Level Savings Estimates (total as
sharing as increased)
Site Sharing (tower/room) 10%
Infrastructure Sharing
(electricity, A/C, etc)
16-20%
Telco Equipment Sharing 25%
National Roaming 30%
Full Sharing (Includes
sharing a core
transmission network)
40%
IncreasedSharing
Canada’s Sharing Status
Canada India
Cell Plan (~4GB data) $75 CAD $20 CAD
Less than 5% wireless infrastructure sharing.
Less than 10% wired infrastructure sharing.
Comparison to India (66% wireless sharing) :
• Telecom Act only applies to Big
Telecom
• Complicated Regulatory regime:
CRTC and Industry Canada
• Focus on wired passive
infrastructure sharing, not mobile
passive infrastructure sharing
(towers / roaming)
Canada’s Towers By
Ownership
Telcom
Other
Industries
Ideas For Change
Promoting Broadband Growth:
• Focus on infrastructure sharing
• Raise visibility via statistics
• Create a marketplace
(rentfaster.ca / eBay)
• Improve regulator effectiveness
Promoting Contribution
• Educate consumers
• Demand higher upload rates
Questions / Thank You
Trevor Textor
Rural IT & Telecom Consultant
Principal, Textor Corp.

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Broadband Internet - The “Railroad” of Our Era

  • 1. Broadband Internet The “Railroad” of Our Era Trevor Textor Rural IT & Telecom Consultant Principal, Textor Corp. -- Fostering “it just works” rural data communications systems that enable clients to focus on their core business -- www.textor.ca ca.linkedin.com/in/trevortextor
  • 2.
  • 3. Agenda • The new themes of the internet: Sharing & Contribution • What is Broadband? • Broadband’s Impacts (Economic, Social) • Broadband Growth & Drivers • Role of Wireless (mobile) in Broadband • Understanding wireless • The components of Broadband Costs • Sharing & an Open Access Network business model • Canada’s status for sharing (cell plan comparison) • Roles of the regulators (CRTC, IC) • Ideas for promoting Broadband growth
  • 4. Broadband is the “glue” for: • Convergence – Internet Protocol; consolidation of multiple cables to a single cable • Increasing Resource Utilization – Move of compute to data centres (Cloud services) – Virtual Machines – Big Data Analytics – Sharing Economy (AirBnb, Car2Go, etc.) The Sharing Revolution
  • 5. ~Pre-2010 “Couch Potato” Internet worked fine – Example Asymmetric Service: 20 Mbps 1 Mbps New Reality “I have a voice” – Less Asymmetric OK 20Mbps 5 Mbps – Ideally Symmetric 20Mpbs 20 Mbps Contribution
  • 6. • Basic level of service target in bandwidth (Mbps) • Definitions of “Basic service” from: – Akamai: 4 Mbps @ <35ms uncongested last mile – FCC (US): 25 Mbps 3 Mbps – Industry Canada: 5 Mbps 1 Mbps Broadband Internet
  • 7. Broadband Impact (Benefits) Economic Innovation Productivity Social Access to services Healthcare Environmental Efficient energy consumption
  • 8. Broadband’s Economic Impact • Doubling broadband speeds for an economy can add 0.3 % to GDP growth Canada = +$5.5 Billion/year Federal Funding for Broadband Development = $350M
  • 9. Broadband’s Social Impact (Democracy) • Social Media catalyzes pro-democracy movements - Twitter Revolutions • Requires Mobile Broadband Internet • United Nations Broadband Commission cites broadband “stimulate[s] democracy”
  • 10. Broadband is Critical Infrastructure • “… broadband service … must carry the same obligations as so many of the other vital services do.” President Obama • “… a foundation stone of modern society….” (United Nations) • “a basic human right” (popular opinion) • All developed countries now have a broadband plan and committed government dollars.
  • 11. Broadband – This era’s “railroad”
  • 12. Video Killed the Internet (Star?) • Broadband internet usage is doubling every 1.5 years. • “Cable TV Replacement” – 52% of internet traffic (37% Netflix) • Per Session Stream Requirements: – HD (1080p) 2 Mbps – UltraHD (4K) 12 Mbps
  • 13. Telepresence (The Future) • Immersive Video – like you’re there – Telemedicine (“house calls”) – Business Meetings • Per Session Stream Requirements: – HD (1080p) 20 Mbps – UltraHD (4K) 120 Mbps • Why the world needs to endlessly build more broadband (fiber, towers)
  • 14. Telepresence (The Future) • Per Session Stream Requirements: – HD (1080p) 20 Mbps – UltraHD (4K) 120 Mbps • Why the world needs to endlessly build more broadband (fiber, towers)
  • 15. • Bandwidth demand outstripped supply Not naming any names… (cough) Netflix • Valid technical reasons for priority • Bob Kahn, co-inventor of IP calls Net Neutrality a “slogan” • Best solution is to have abundant bandwidth Net Neutrality
  • 16. Wireless • Majority (60%) of Internet Access is mobile (wireless) • Cooper’s Law is the world’s longest running growth S-curve (120 years): The ability to transmit different radio communications at one time and in the same place has doubled every 30 months since 1895
  • 17. What is Wireless? • Wave of energy • Transmission of a minimum level of energy dictates packet error rate and ultimately bandwidth • Choice of frequency dictates: – Range – Bandwidth Need more wireless infrastructure!
  • 18. Services Voice Video Web Browsing Email Active Components 15-30% Economic Life: 5 - 7 years (radios, routers, switches) Passive Components 70-85% Economic Life: 15 – 25 years (Spectrum, Civil engineering works; towers, trenches, laying duct/cable) Cost of Broadband
  • 19. Critical Passive Components for: • Wireless = Towers / Spectrum – Bandwidth bounded by Tower Weight Support Capacity • Wired = Fiber / Conduit (trenching) Cost of Broadband
  • 21. Open Access Network Model (OAN) Leveling the playing field
  • 22. • Model for sharing costs • Company that owns passive component not allowed to own active component • Maximizes sharing/utilization of components • Encourages competition at the service level! Open Access Network Model (OAN)
  • 23. Savings Estimates By Level of Sharing Sharing Level Savings Estimates (total as sharing as increased) Site Sharing (tower/room) 10% Infrastructure Sharing (electricity, A/C, etc) 16-20% Telco Equipment Sharing 25% National Roaming 30% Full Sharing (Includes sharing a core transmission network) 40% IncreasedSharing
  • 24. Canada’s Sharing Status Canada India Cell Plan (~4GB data) $75 CAD $20 CAD Less than 5% wireless infrastructure sharing. Less than 10% wired infrastructure sharing. Comparison to India (66% wireless sharing) :
  • 25. • Telecom Act only applies to Big Telecom • Complicated Regulatory regime: CRTC and Industry Canada • Focus on wired passive infrastructure sharing, not mobile passive infrastructure sharing (towers / roaming) Canada’s Towers By Ownership Telcom Other Industries
  • 26. Ideas For Change Promoting Broadband Growth: • Focus on infrastructure sharing • Raise visibility via statistics • Create a marketplace (rentfaster.ca / eBay) • Improve regulator effectiveness Promoting Contribution • Educate consumers • Demand higher upload rates
  • 27. Questions / Thank You Trevor Textor Rural IT & Telecom Consultant Principal, Textor Corp.

Editor's Notes

  1. Last Updated: October 21, 2015 (notes edits) U of C Alumni Association, CPSC Chapter, Oct 22, 2015 http://alumni.cpsc.ucalgary.ca/ Image Source: Lia Rogers
  2. Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/53/Mackenzie_River_ice_road_-e.jpg
  3. Image Source: http://www.istockphoto.com/
  4. Image Source: http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/File:Couch-potato.gif http://www.istockphoto.com/ (bullhorn)
  5. Note, you can’t effectively work from home with 1Mbps upload. With cloud services such as google, screen sharing, teleconferencing & video conferencing, I recommend at least 2 Mbps. Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broadband_universal_service Akamai State of the Internet Report, Q2 2015 https://www.stateoftheinternet.com/ Canada’s Broadband Target speed 5Mbps down, 1Mbps up: http://www.crtc.gc.ca/eng/info_sht/i1.htm Akamai Broadband adoption (connections >4 Mbps): http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/soti-visualizations.html#stoi-map Uncongested last mile delay (or latency) of less than 35ms. http://www.pexx.net/pdfs/whitepapers/adtran/DefiningBroadbandNtwk.pdf USA’s FCC defines Broadband as 25Mbps down, 3Mbps up: http://ca.ign.com/articles/2015/01/09/fcc-may-redefine-broadband-as-25mbps-download-and-3mbps-upload Image Source: http://www.freestockphotos.biz/stockphoto/17470
  6. Source: Arthur D. Little, Chalmers University of Technology and Ericsson co-authored a report on the Socioeconomic Effects of Broadband Speed http://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2013/ericsson-broadband-final-071013.pdf
  7. For Canada, a 0.3% GDP growth impact results in an additional $5.5 Billion per year in GDP growth. The Canadian Government has invested $350M in its “Connecting Canadians, Digital Canada 150” federal funding initiative to shore up slow broadband speeds, the majority of which is in rural areas. The target Internet speeds are 3-5 Mbps for extremely rural areas. Source: Arthur D. Little, Chalmers University of Technology and Ericsson co-authored a report on the Socioeconomic Effects of Broadband Speed http://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2013/ericsson-broadband-final-071013.pdf Connecting Canadians, Digital Canada 150 http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/028.nsf/eng/50009.html Image Source: http://www.istockphoto.com/
  8. Twitter Revolution – there has been a large impact from social media in Iran and Egypt in supporting pro-democracy movements. Sources: “Stimulate democracy” quote “The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all” by the UN Broadband Commission, pg 51. http://www.broadbandcommission.org/resources/Pages/default.aspx Twitter Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_Revolution Image Source: http://scrippsmediaethics.blogspot.ca/2013/09/technology-will-set-journalists-free.html
  9. Sources: ~80% of ~40K people agree that access to the Internet is a basic or fundamental right. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_Internet_access “…broadband service is of the same importance and must carry the same obligations as so many of the other vital services do.” President Obama http://www.fastcompany.com/3038301/president-obama-the-fcc-should-classify-the-internet-as-a-utility “… [A]ffordable broadband connectivity to the Internet is a foundation stone of modern society…Broadband does not just comprise infrastructure; today, widespread broadband connectivity offers the prospects of new services and an information revolution to change – and challenge – our very approach to development.” (United Nations) UN "The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all" http://www.broadbandcommission.org/resources/Pages/default.aspx Digital Canada 150 “[Canada’s] Digital Canada 150 [strategy] represents a comprehensive approach to ensuring Canada can take full advantage of the opportunities of the digital age. It envisions a country of connected citizens armed with the skills they need to succeed.” (Government of Canada) http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/028.nsf/eng/h_00587.html
  10. Image Source: http://www.gogagas.com/steam-train-wallpaper-games/
  11. Sources: Once video is introduced, bandwidth usage expands at 50% CAGR (Doubles every 1.5 years). Clearcable networks www.clearcable.ca Netflix comprises 37% of all internet traffic. More than runners up of YouTube, Amazon & Hulu combined. http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/netflix-bandwidth-usage-internet-traffic-1201507187/
  12. Telepresence spoils yourself from regular video calls. VCUs have not made a measurable impact on travel for business meetings but telepresence certainly will. It translates the “body language” often missing from regular video calls. Sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telepresence Image Source: The Big Bang Theory, Season 4 Episode 2, “The Cruciferous Vegetable Amplification”
  13. Sources: “Bob Kahn, co-inventor of the Internet Protocol, has called the term "net neutrality" a "slogan" and states that he opposes establishing it…. Opponents of net neutrality regulation also argue that the best solution to discrimination by broadband providers is to encourage greater competition among such providers, which is currently limited in many areas.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_neutrality Image Source: https://www.linkedin.com/company/baseride-technologies
  14. Source: The majority of internet access in developed countries is wirelessly via mobile, with nearly 87% of the people having access to mobile broadband whereas only 29% have access to fixed broadband. “ITU ICT Facts and Figures – The world in 2015” http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/facts/default.aspx 60 Percent of Online Traffic Now Comes From Mobile http://smallbiztrends.com/2014/07/online-traffic-report-mobile.html Image Source: http://www.techtimes.com/articles/18701/20141025/legal-hiccups-prompt-fcc-to-postpone-spectrum-auction-till-2016.htm
  15. Image Source: http://www.istockphoto.com/
  16. The ratio of passive components is even higher in rural areas – 80-95% is passive component costs. With it costing so much, it seems like a stretch to cover rural Canada. You probably have experienced dead zones on highways. But what most people don’t notice is that there are towers everywhere and they are empty.
  17. Image Source: http://blog.aviatnetworks.com/2013/05/17/what-does-it-take-to-get-the-most-out-of-your-wireless-backhaul/
  18. Sources: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/technology/mobile-carriers-warn-of-spectrum-crisis-others-see-hyperbole.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Broadband_Plan_(United_States)#Spectrum_reallocation Image Source: Industry Canada
  19. Image Source: http://www.onfieldsofgreen.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/sloping_field1.jpg
  20. Sources: Canada actually has some OAN in that it has unbundled cable (local loop unbundling) however, this does not have much to do sharing towers / cellular where much of the data demand is from mobile. Further, in terms of selling internet service, this has only resulted in non-incumbent ISP resale service of 7% of residential internet & 31% of business internet in 2011. Unbundling: Broadband Networks And Open Access, 2013, OECD, Pg. 11-12, Canada local loop unbundling use. http://oecdinsights.org/2013/03/05/stimulating-competition-through-open-access-networks/ Tower sharing illustration from “Financing Rural Communications Infrastructure: The Parkland Utility Model” pg. 5 www.fcm.ca/Documents/presentations/2012/SCC2012/Financing_rural_communications_infrastructure_the_parkland_utility_model_EN.pdf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecom_infrastructure_sharing “…[T]he information communications and technology (ICT) industry, which delivers Internet, video, voice and other cloud services, produces … about 2 percent of global CO2 emissions — the same proportion as the aviation industry produces.” The majority of these emissions are from wireless towers, specifically those generating electricity using fossil fuels. http://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/pressroom/presspacs/2013/acs-presspac-january-23-2013/toward-reducing-the-greenhouse-gas-emissions-of-the-internet-and-telecommunications.html Image Source: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/research-councils-green-open-access-policy-will-not-be-enforced/2001275.article
  21. Source: “The State of Broadband 2014: Broadband for all” by the UN Broadband Commission. Table 5: Capex and Opex Savings for Different Network Deployment Models. Pg. 77 http://www.broadbandcommission.org/publications/pages/sob-2014.aspx
  22. Sources: India 4GB mobile data anywhere from 500-1000 Rs. ~$20 CAD (high) Global Tower Overview (3 million towers) (Trevor note: Unfortunately we do not know how many towers there are in Canada since Industry Canada does not track this.) http://www.towerxchange.com/global-telecom-tower-market-overview/ “Lessons learned at the TowerXchange Meetup Asia 2014”, pg 2 India TowerCo penetration. Unbundling: Broadband Networks And Open Access, 2013, OECD, Pg. 11-12, Canada local loop unbundling use. http://oecdinsights.org/2013/03/05/stimulating-competition-through-open-access-networks/ TowerCos: Based on estimate from Loxcel based on their cell tower map (2012): https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/xz028/hey_canada_ever_wonder_how_many_cell_towers_are/ TowerCo penetration in Canada estimated from SBA Canada database & known small providers. SBA Canada 750 towers (2015), others, easily less than 250; these are towers purchased from the non-Telecom tower portfolio. Therefore, estimate that towers have increased from their 2012 number and that private towers would double that number, say total of 30,000 towers in Canada (does not include bolt together towers). 30,000/1000 = 3.3% Podcast “The FCC: Promoting Fast, Fair & Open Broadband” August 7, 2015, cjspeaks http://www.blogtalkradio.com/gigabitnation/2015/08/07/the-fcc-promoting-fast-fair-open-broadband Gigi Sohn, Counselor to FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler, discusses net neutrality and infrastructure sharing. Specifically she discusses how sharing of infrastructure (getting access to) is the key barrier FCC is trying to break down. Specific info starts at 28 minutes until the end.
  23. Sources: Private tower ownership is indirectly estimated by accessing the Industry Canada spectrum database. The database lists tower size and location for a radio license. Ownership is inferred based on radio licenses on the tower. Canada does not have a database of tower locations and corresponding ownership like the USA does. USA Antenna Structure Registration System: http://wireless2.fcc.gov/UlsApp/AsrSearch/asrRegistrationSearch.jsp Industry Canada Radio Frequency search: http://sd.ic.gc.ca/pls/engdoc_anon/web_search.geographical_input CCPA Monitor: The CRTC and the future of high-speed Internet access https://openmedia.ca/blog/ccpa-monitor-crtc-and-future-high-speed-internet-access CRTC 2013-551 is not reviewing wireless wholesale services (e.g. tower sharing, wireless roaming) as per item #21. http://crtc.gc.ca/eng/archive/2013/2013-551.htm Digital Canada 150: The digital strategy without a strategy http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/04/04/digital_canada_150_the_digital_strategy_without_a_strategy.html
  24. Image Source: http://www.istockphoto.com/
  25. Image Source: Lia Rogers