Edelman Canada shares highlights and analysis from the 2017 British Columbia provincial election. To learn more about Edelman Canada, please visit www.edelman.ca.
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Hon. James Moore
Special Advisor, Public Affairs, Edelman Canada
604.648.3401 | james.moore@edelman.com
BC ELECTION 2017 ANALYSIS
OUR PERSPECTIVE
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
Though the current numbers show the BC Liberals
with 43 seats, BC NDP with 41, BC Greens with three,
and 44 seats needed for a majority, the final tally will
take some time.
Christy Clark and the BC Liberals have won the
election. They have garnered the most votes and
seats, and thus remain in power. Complicating the
legislative arithmetic is the fact that of the 87 MLAs
that will sit in the legislature, one must also serve as
Speaker, making the Liberal-NDP-Green balance of
power dynamic even more tenuous on a vote by vote
basis going forward.
Over the next two weeks, vote counting will continue
as we await absentee numbers and possible recounts
in three ridings with hairpin victors; Courtenay-
Comox, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain and Maple
Ridge–Mission. It is still unclear whether BC will have
a minority government as it appears to today, but
the road ahead could prove to be as unstable as any
time in BC’s history.
The election was as close as any of memory, and,
as of now, has produced the first minority legislature
since 1952. The closest political parallel to this
election is that of P.E. Trudeau in 1972, who won
by two seats, and whose government lasted roughly
19 months with 3rd
party support from the NDP on a
vote by vote basis.
For BC voters, last night’s spectacle should come as
no surprise; this election has lived up to every bit of
hype it garnered. Though similarities are often drawn
between BC and California, we are now entering
Florida territory; all eyes will be on a few ballot boxes
for the foreseeable future.
The 2017 BC Election campaign may be over, but
the politics and drama are only just beginning.
THE NEW LANDSCAPE
The BC NDP campaigned strong in Metro Vancouver, championing relief for renters and families feeling the
squeeze on rampant housing unaffordability with promises of $10 a day childcare, the removal of tolls on the
Port Mann and Golden Ears bridges, and improvements to transit and transportation. Consequently, several
prominent BC Liberal Cabinet Ministers fell on Election Day, replaced by BC NDP candidates.
The risky political move away from known strongholds on Vancouver Island paid off for John Horgan’s team,
who picked up 24 seats total in the Lower Mainland.
The BC Liberals remained focused on jobs and the economy, holding on to traditionally strong Interior,
Northern, Fraser Valley and Lake Country seats.
The BC Greens surged on Vancouver Island, tripling their seat count and doubling their share of the popular vote.
Bob Richardson
Executive Vice-President & National Practice Lead
416.849.1913 | bob.richardson@edelman.com
Bridgitte Anderson
General Manager, Edelman Vancouver
604.648.3403 | bridgitte.anderson@edelman.com
Joel Thirsk
Account Manager, Public Affairs
604.648.3468 | joel.thirsk@edelman.com
Popular Vote: 40.84%
Elected: 43 Seats
Popular Vote: 39.86%
Elected: 41 Seats
Popular Vote: 16.75%
Elected: 3 Seats
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Voters in the Lower Mainland made their views on transportation and transit issues known. With a BC Liberal Minority
Government for the time being, the questions remain which promises will be delivered upon, in what capacity, and at
what cost?
Legislature math and uncounted votes aside, today, BC has another government led by Premier Christy Clark, and
voters will expect her to deliver on the following promises, majority government or not.
TRANSPORTATION
• Capping tolls on the Port Mann and Golden Ears
bridges at $500 annually
• $3.5 billion to build a 10-lane bridge replacing the
George Massey Tunnel
• $2.2 billion to match federal funding for Metro
Vancouver transit projects
• Completing four-lane expansion projects along Hwy 97
and TC1 from Kamloops to Alberta
TAXES
• Freeze personal income taxes
• Cut PST on electricity by 50% (to 3.5%)
• Freeze BC Carbon Tax at $30 per tonne until 2021
• Cut MSP premiums by 50%
• Cut small-business tax rate from 2.5% to 2%
• Maintain 15% Foreign Buyers Tax
HOUSING
• $700 million for the BC Home Owner Mortgage and
Equity Partnership program
• Raise the first-time homebuyers’ exemption threshold
to $500,000
RESOURCES
• Set target of 8 new mines by 2022
• Set target of 3 new LNG plants to be under
construction by 2020
• Complete Site C dam and promote electrification of oil
and gas fields
• Allocate $5 million annually to develop new markets
for BC lumber in India & China
SKILLS TRAINING
• Increasing STEM Graduates by 1,000 by 2022
• $2.6 billion in new capital spending on colleges
and universities
• Increase placement of BC Tech co-op programs by 50%
• $10 million for life sciences research chairs
KEY ISSUES
BC ELECTION 2017 ANALYSIS
WHAT WE SAW
THE ONES TO WATCH
When the dust settles and a clear electoral decision is made, British Columbia’s 41st
Parliament will resume,
and 87 candidates will be put to task. Here are a few to watch moving forward:
Andrew Weaver, MLA, Oak Bay-Gordon Head
This is Weaver’s second term as Green Party Leader
and MLA, who will come to Victoria with two BC Green
colleagues and a considerably higher profile and role in
BC’s future.
John Horgan, MLA, Langford-Juan de Fuca
NDP Leader John Horgan returns to the Legislature with
a number of unknowns for a party that picked up key
battleground ridings, including his future as party leader.
David Eby, MLA, Vancouver-Point Grey
Now in his second term representing Christy Clark’s
former riding, Eby emerged as a high-profile Opposition
MLA during his first term and will play a prominent role in
the Legislature.
Ellis Ross, MLA, Skeena
New MLA Ross was elected Chief Councillor of the Haisla
Nation in 2011 and was re-elected in 2013 by acclamation
to a four-year term.
Todd Stone, MLA, Kamloops-South Thompson
This is Todd Stone’s second term as MLA, having served
as Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure as well as
Deputy House Leader since 2013.
Mary Polak, MLA, Langley
Now in her fourth term as MLA for the South Fraser
community, she has served as Minister of the Environment
since 2013.
Jas Johal, MLA, Richmond-Queensborough
Johal is an award-winning journalist with over 23-years of
reporting experience, and was considered a star candidate
heading into the campaign.
Ravi Kahlon, MLA, Delta North
A newcomer to the Legislature and political realm, the
two time Olympian took the swing seat from BC Liberals
and will look to elevate his profile in the community and
in Victoria.
Conversation around the BC Election remained elevated in the period between the televised debate and the Election.
The BC Liberals maintained a narrow but consistent lead over the BC NDP in overall volume, which closely mirrored the
outcome of the election. The BC Greens continued to perform well on social media, and the volume of conversation
surrounding Andrew Weaver reflected the party’s share of the popular vote.