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ROCKETING
RETAIL PROFITS......................................................
PRAKASH MENON ANDREW CAVANAGH
&
With Excellence in Merchandise Planning
........................................................................................................................
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLE 2
ASSORTMENT AND RANGE PLANNING 16
THE MERCHANDISE FINANCIAL PLAN 46
Part 1. The Buying and Merchandising Seasonal Cycle 3
Part 2. The Role of the Merchandise Planner 7
Workshop Activity 1 (Individual) 11
Part 3. Financial Control and the Assortment Plan 12
Part 1. Before the Plan 17
Part 2. The Business Structure 19
Workshop Activity 2 (Individual) 22
Part 3. The Assortment Plan 23
Part 4. Creating a Location Plan 26
Part 5. Create a Merchandise Mix Plan 29
Part 6. Determine Width vs Depth Strategy 30
Part 7. The Range Plan 33
Workshop Activity 3 (Groups) 39
Part 8. Product Life Cycles 41
Workshop Activity 4 (Individual) 44
Part 1. Financial Plans 47
Part 2. Setting the Sales Budget: Bottom-up Planning 50
Part 3. Setting Stock Levels 52
Part 4. Setting Levels of Markdowns 55
Part 5. Establishing Open-To-Buy 58
Workshop Activity 5 (Individual) 61
................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS
QUANTIFICATION 64
INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 82
MERCHANDISE ANALYSIS 96
Part 1. Forecasting 65
Workshop Activity 6 (Groups) 69
Part 2. Ordering 72
Part 3. Allocation 74
Workshop Activity 7 (Groups) 78
Part 1. The Need to Manage Inventory 83
Part 2. Taking Action 87
Workshop Activity 8 (Groups) 91
Part 3. Identifying Markdown Opportunities 93
Workshop Activity 9 (Individual) 94
Part 1. What is Analysis? 97
Workshop Activity 10 (Groups) 97
Workshop Activity 11 (Groups) 100
Part 2. Directional analysis 102
Workshop Activity 12 (Groups) 105
Part 3. Trend Analysis 107
Workshop Activity 13 (Groups) 107
Part 4. Tracking Analysis 109
Workshop Activity 14 (Groups) 111
Workshop Activity 15 (Individual) 112
Part 5. Quantitative Analysis 113
Part 6. Qualitative Analysis 115
Part 7. Post Seasonal Analysis 117
Part 8. Contextualising the Data 126
Workshop Activity 16 (Individual) 128
Workshop Activity 1
Workshop Activity 2
Workshop Activity 3
Workshop Activity 4
Workshop Activity 5
Workshop Activity 6
Workshop Activity 7
Workshop Activity 8
Workshop Activity 9
Workshop Activity 10
Workshop Activity 11
Workshop Activity 12
Workshop Activity 13
Workshop Activity 14
Workshop Activity 15
Workshop Activity 16
APPENDICES
(Individual)
(Individual).
(Groups)
(Individual)
(Individual)
(Groups)
(Groups)
(Groups)
(Individual)
(Groups).
(Groups)
(Groups)
(Groups).
(Groups)
(Individual)
(Individual)
+.............. ...................... .................................
INTRODUCTION
If you were to ask several retailers to defne ‘merchandise planning’,
chances are you would get many different responses. Because of
this ambiguity, the role of merchandise planner in the buying cycle
is often undervalued. Buyers on the other hand have always
enjoyed the spotlight. They are very good at developing ranges,
negotiating the purchase terms and setting retail prices, all
important aspects of the Buying Cycle. But history tells us this is
often done without the beneft of insightful analysis based on last
season’s performance and industry trends (the Merchandise
Planner’s forte).
Together, the Buyer and the Merchandise Planner make the perfect
team. Much like the relationship between the navigator and driver
in a car rally, the Buyer ‘drives’ the range development and ft to the
customers’ needs while the Planner monitors the ‘road’, advising
the Buyer when to turn left or right, to slow down, speed up or
STOP!
At the end of the day, as retailers we’re all here to make money.
This book is a practical guide to optimising inventory and retail
profts through the merchandise planning function. It includes a
series of workshop activities (with solutions at the back), making it
more than just an easy to read book, but also an effective learning
and consolidation tool that could easily be shared with the team.
+
......................................................
INTRODUCTION
TO THE
PLANNER ROLE
3 4
Part. 1+
The activities of a Merchandise Planner are linked to the Buying and
Merchandising Seasonal Cycle.
Planners have input at various stages of the Cycle, particularly when it comes to
formulating the financial plan for their area. This financial plan is also known as a
Merchandise Plan.
The Merchandise Plan is influenced by:
The business model and financial objectives of the Brand
The market position of the Brand
The departmental assortment strategy in supporting that position
The Brand and departmental business plans
Financial KPI's
Product life cycles within the assortment mix
wSupply Chain dynamics
Brand policies relating to risk management and markdowns
w
w
w
w
w
w
w
................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
THE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLE
INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLEINTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLE
THE BUYING CYCLE
Retail Strategy and
Range Development
?wCorporate Strategy
?wBusiness Model
& Objectives
?wDepartment Strategy
Developing the
Seasonal Range Plan
wDevelop Range Framework
wBuild Range
wReview Range
Implementing the
Seasonal Range Plan
wProgress Range
wPreparation for
On-Sale
Managing the
Range In-Season
?wMerchandise Analysis
?wTaking action
?wPost-Seasonal Analysis
Merchandise Planning
Retail Metrics
Supply Chain
Loss Prevention
Supplier Management
THE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLE
5 6
................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLEINTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLE
THE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLETHE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLE
1. RETAIL STRATEGY AND RANGE DEVELOPMENT
2. DEVELOPING THE SEASONAL RANGE PLAN
Corporate Strategy
Financial objectives
Marketing objectives
Business position and
competitive situation
Core customer
segments
Develop the Range
Framework
Family tree (hierarchy
and breaks)
Price map
Brand map
Detailed sales, proft,
markdown and stock
targets
Business Model and
Objectives
Sales, proft and
expenses
Detailed customer
profles
Manageable blocks of
2 days a month
Build Range
Breadth and depth
Fashion level
Item detail
Negotiate costs
Develop intake and exit
plan
Liaise with supply chain
Department Strategy
Customer groups
Competitive situation
within department
Product mix guidelines
Review Range
Review against sales
and proft budgets
Review against
customer profles
3. IMPLEMENTING THE SEASONAL RANGE PLAN
4. MANAGING THE RANGE IN-SEASON
Progress Range
Sign-off product
specifcations
Analyse Sales
Monitor sales and proft
Check new line
performance
Identify trends
Place Orders
Monitor and action
critical-path dates
React to Sales
Take markdowns
Adjust Open-to-Buy
Replan merchandise
Negotiate with
suppliers for contribu-
tions to markdowns
and cancellations
Preparation for
On-sale
Produce lay-out
guidelines
Follow-up suppliers
Brief stores on
product range features
and benefts
Product Clearance
Implement markdowns
Monitor sales response
to markdowns
Document implications
for next season and
same season next year
Conduct review of
season
PLAIN SHIRTS
Budget STD sales are the same for lines 1 and 2, which implies that they were
meant to arrive at the same time and didn't. Line 1's sales for last week, last
month and season are all the same, indicating it has only just arrived. The arrival
of the line 1 stock has also lifted sales for the week of line 2, which implies that
line 2 may have been starting to get fragmented. Line 3 is clearly underperforming
and needs to be marked down in order to be cleared. Line 4 is over-performing
and, if lead-times were suitable, it would be wise to reorder and perhaps range to
all 160 stores. If reordering is not viable, a size analysis will need to be done and, if
it is a reasonable size mix, the product will need to be consolidated into a smaller
number of stores. If the size range consists of oddments only, then mark it down
and clear it in all stores.
STRIPED SHIRTS
Line 8 is the only one of the striped shirts that has performed above expectations.
Why that has happened needs to be investigated. The other 3 lines are all sub-
standard and need to be marked down.
PRINT SHIRTS
All are tracking at planned levels or above. The question that needs to be
addressed is “Why were so many of the print shirts only ranged to a limited
number of stores?” Again if lead times were suitable, it would be wise to reorder to
a wider distribution of stores. If not, then stock will need to be consolidated and/or
cleared out.
................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Work through the following Alderman Books mini-case study and answer the
questions below:
* What are your recommendations?
* Should the catalogue format be adopted for future promotions?
Background
In early 2005 the retail book sector in Australia was going through major
transformation. The arrival of international book retailer Borders, the growth of on-
line seller Amazon (amongst others) and rationalisation in both the publishing and
retailing side of the business set the scene for change. Two authors were
dominating the market at the time. J.K. Rowling and her 'Harry Potter' series of
books had ignited the interest of an entire generation to start reading again. As a
result, new releases were assured of fast sell through of massive volumes of
stock amidst worldwide hype regarding the plot.And Dan Brown rocketed to
notoriety with the release of his somewhat controversial book 'The Da Vinci Code',
meaning subsequent releases and re-releases were also assured of success.
To complicate the market at the time, one of eastern Australia's largest book
chains had fallen into some liquidity issues and publishers were refusing to supply
them with new books until they had paid for the stock already received. As a
result, they did not release a Mother's Day Catalogue in 2005. Failure to go to
market with a strong current offering further exacerbated their problems, as
Mother's Day is traditionally the second largest sale period in books for the entire
year.
Franchise chain, Alderman Books, had been performing strongly over this time and
was trending up on both a 'like for like' stores and total sales basis. They were also
opening new stores on a regular basis. In fact 10 new stores had been opened in
the last 12 months bringing the total number of stores to 50.
ALDERMAN BOOKS – MINI CASE STUDY
Part. 16+
WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL)
165 166APPENDICESAPPENDICES
WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL)
The Scenario
The Mother's Day catalogue for Alderman in 2005 was an outstanding success
with sales of catalogue lines up by over 30% on the previous year. The new Harry
Potter and Dan Brown titles both worked exceptionally well as 'hero' lines within
the catalogue. The Marketing department was understandably delighted and
wanted to adopt the format used as a template for future promotions.
1. What factors should be considered before doing this?
Sales results have been distorted by the following factors:
i. The two blockbuster books, which would have sold regardless of if they
had catalogue exposure or not. There is no guarantee that books with
similar 'pulling power' will be available for future catalogues. They should
therefore be classified as data noise.
ii. The absence from the competitive landscape of a competitor from the
eastern states has created a distorted market share for this event. At the
time of review, there was no indication of whether or not that retailer
would survive. As a result, eastern state sales were distorted by this
situation. Western Australian results would not have been impacted, as
the retailer in question did not have a presence there.
iii. Like for like' sales were trending up. It can therefore be safely assumed
that catalogue results would have been similarly trending up, regardless
of the catalogue.
iv. More stores were involved in the catalogue this year. There are now 50
stores compared with 40 stores earlier. Nominally you would expect
around a 25% increase in sales as a result of there now being 25% more
stores (assuming that no 'sales cannibalisation' between existing and
new stores had taken place).
v. Increased competition from Amazon and Borders is not really relevant in
this case, as the overall trending figures will take that into account.
SOLUTION
................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
vi. You must also look at a longer data line rather than just compare the
results with last year. This year's results may look good simply because
last year's results were bad. If last year was 20% down on the year
before, this year's 30% increase may only be correcting an aberration
from the previous year.
2. What can be done to eliminate any data 'noise' from the analysis?
i. Sales results can be calculated EXCLUDING the two blockbusters.
ii. Results could be compared with just the Western Australian stores.
iii. The results can be de-trended to strip out the impact of general growth.
Remember, the point of this analysis is to see if the format works for the
catalogues.
iv. Only examine results in stores that have been open for 12 months or
more.
If the longer data line shows that this year was not a correction, then this much
smaller data sample will give you a more accurate picture than examining the total
result.
When all of these factors are taken into consideration, it appears that the new
catalogue format was at best neutral and at worst led to a decreased result once
all the data noise was removed.
Decision – Do not adopt the new format as a template for future promotional
activity.
167 168APPENDICESAPPENDICES
WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL) WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL)
PRAKASH ‘PK’ MENON
ANDREW CAVANAGH
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES
Prakash ‘PK’ Menon is a globally renowned Retail,
Supply Chain & Logistics & Leadership authority. A
regular contributor to several UAE and international
retail publications, PK is also the author of three other
books - Driven - accelerate your career with smart
transitioning; Supply Chain is Sexy - Harnessing the
Retail Revolution; and Fail Smart - The Undeniable
Link Between Failure and Success. As Executive
Director of Thought Leaders Middle East, PK’s passion
and expertise is to help retailers transform their
organisations into global powerhouses and add
signifcant dollars to their proft lines.
Andrew Cavanagh brings more than 20 year’s retail
buying, merchandise planning and IT experience with
Myer and Coles Myer and more than 6 year’s national
and international teaching experience at the
Australian Centre for Retail Studies to the table. Today
he focuses on his true passion, which is to develop the
skills and competencies of Buyers and Planners
around the world as an international facilitator.
MORE BOOKS IN THE RETAIL MASTERY SERIES:
OTHER BOOKS BY PK MENON:
Fail Smart (TM)
PK's book on Failure
Intelligence. About the
undeniable link between
Failure and Success.
Supply Chain is Sexy
Transform your supply
chain fromweak link to
core strength with PK
Menon
Driven...whatever it takes!
A memoir highlighting PK
Menon's journey - an
inspiring combination of
humble beginnings to an
even more humble yet
awe-inspiring present.
PUMP UP YOUR ROI
From Good to Great Buying in Retail
A guide to managing your retail business by measuring what matters.
GOOD BUYER GREAT NEGOTIATOR
Fact-Based Negotiation in Retail
A guide to the art and skills of negotiating for retailers.
POWER UP YOUR RETAIL
Powerful Financial Excellence for Retail Store Managers
A guide to driving outstanding retail store profits in the 21st century.
CHECKMATE IN RETAIL
Dynamic Strategy for Retailers in a Volatile Retail Environment
A retail buyer's guide to driving outstanding profitability using effective
merchandise strategy.
WINNING FORMULAS IN RETAIL
108 Retail Formulas for Retail Mastery
108 formulae that every Retail Manager needs to know.
www.thoughtleadersme.com
www.pkmenon.com
Copyright © 2014 Thought Leaders Middle East
All Rights Reserved

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Black Belt In Retail

  • 2. ........................................................................................................................ TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLE 2 ASSORTMENT AND RANGE PLANNING 16 THE MERCHANDISE FINANCIAL PLAN 46 Part 1. The Buying and Merchandising Seasonal Cycle 3 Part 2. The Role of the Merchandise Planner 7 Workshop Activity 1 (Individual) 11 Part 3. Financial Control and the Assortment Plan 12 Part 1. Before the Plan 17 Part 2. The Business Structure 19 Workshop Activity 2 (Individual) 22 Part 3. The Assortment Plan 23 Part 4. Creating a Location Plan 26 Part 5. Create a Merchandise Mix Plan 29 Part 6. Determine Width vs Depth Strategy 30 Part 7. The Range Plan 33 Workshop Activity 3 (Groups) 39 Part 8. Product Life Cycles 41 Workshop Activity 4 (Individual) 44 Part 1. Financial Plans 47 Part 2. Setting the Sales Budget: Bottom-up Planning 50 Part 3. Setting Stock Levels 52 Part 4. Setting Levels of Markdowns 55 Part 5. Establishing Open-To-Buy 58 Workshop Activity 5 (Individual) 61
  • 3. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS QUANTIFICATION 64 INVENTORY MANAGEMENT 82 MERCHANDISE ANALYSIS 96 Part 1. Forecasting 65 Workshop Activity 6 (Groups) 69 Part 2. Ordering 72 Part 3. Allocation 74 Workshop Activity 7 (Groups) 78 Part 1. The Need to Manage Inventory 83 Part 2. Taking Action 87 Workshop Activity 8 (Groups) 91 Part 3. Identifying Markdown Opportunities 93 Workshop Activity 9 (Individual) 94 Part 1. What is Analysis? 97 Workshop Activity 10 (Groups) 97 Workshop Activity 11 (Groups) 100 Part 2. Directional analysis 102 Workshop Activity 12 (Groups) 105 Part 3. Trend Analysis 107 Workshop Activity 13 (Groups) 107 Part 4. Tracking Analysis 109 Workshop Activity 14 (Groups) 111 Workshop Activity 15 (Individual) 112 Part 5. Quantitative Analysis 113 Part 6. Qualitative Analysis 115 Part 7. Post Seasonal Analysis 117 Part 8. Contextualising the Data 126 Workshop Activity 16 (Individual) 128 Workshop Activity 1 Workshop Activity 2 Workshop Activity 3 Workshop Activity 4 Workshop Activity 5 Workshop Activity 6 Workshop Activity 7 Workshop Activity 8 Workshop Activity 9 Workshop Activity 10 Workshop Activity 11 Workshop Activity 12 Workshop Activity 13 Workshop Activity 14 Workshop Activity 15 Workshop Activity 16 APPENDICES (Individual) (Individual). (Groups) (Individual) (Individual) (Groups) (Groups) (Groups) (Individual) (Groups). (Groups) (Groups) (Groups). (Groups) (Individual) (Individual)
  • 4. +.............. ...................... ................................. INTRODUCTION If you were to ask several retailers to defne ‘merchandise planning’, chances are you would get many different responses. Because of this ambiguity, the role of merchandise planner in the buying cycle is often undervalued. Buyers on the other hand have always enjoyed the spotlight. They are very good at developing ranges, negotiating the purchase terms and setting retail prices, all important aspects of the Buying Cycle. But history tells us this is often done without the beneft of insightful analysis based on last season’s performance and industry trends (the Merchandise Planner’s forte). Together, the Buyer and the Merchandise Planner make the perfect team. Much like the relationship between the navigator and driver in a car rally, the Buyer ‘drives’ the range development and ft to the customers’ needs while the Planner monitors the ‘road’, advising the Buyer when to turn left or right, to slow down, speed up or STOP! At the end of the day, as retailers we’re all here to make money. This book is a practical guide to optimising inventory and retail profts through the merchandise planning function. It includes a series of workshop activities (with solutions at the back), making it more than just an easy to read book, but also an effective learning and consolidation tool that could easily be shared with the team.
  • 6. 3 4 Part. 1+ The activities of a Merchandise Planner are linked to the Buying and Merchandising Seasonal Cycle. Planners have input at various stages of the Cycle, particularly when it comes to formulating the financial plan for their area. This financial plan is also known as a Merchandise Plan. The Merchandise Plan is influenced by: The business model and financial objectives of the Brand The market position of the Brand The departmental assortment strategy in supporting that position The Brand and departmental business plans Financial KPI's Product life cycles within the assortment mix wSupply Chain dynamics Brand policies relating to risk management and markdowns w w w w w w w ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ THE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLE INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLEINTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLE THE BUYING CYCLE Retail Strategy and Range Development ?wCorporate Strategy ?wBusiness Model & Objectives ?wDepartment Strategy Developing the Seasonal Range Plan wDevelop Range Framework wBuild Range wReview Range Implementing the Seasonal Range Plan wProgress Range wPreparation for On-Sale Managing the Range In-Season ?wMerchandise Analysis ?wTaking action ?wPost-Seasonal Analysis Merchandise Planning Retail Metrics Supply Chain Loss Prevention Supplier Management THE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLE
  • 7. 5 6 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ INTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLEINTRODUCTION TO THE PLANNER ROLE THE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLETHE BUYING AND MERCHANDISING SEASONAL CYCLE 1. RETAIL STRATEGY AND RANGE DEVELOPMENT 2. DEVELOPING THE SEASONAL RANGE PLAN Corporate Strategy Financial objectives Marketing objectives Business position and competitive situation Core customer segments Develop the Range Framework Family tree (hierarchy and breaks) Price map Brand map Detailed sales, proft, markdown and stock targets Business Model and Objectives Sales, proft and expenses Detailed customer profles Manageable blocks of 2 days a month Build Range Breadth and depth Fashion level Item detail Negotiate costs Develop intake and exit plan Liaise with supply chain Department Strategy Customer groups Competitive situation within department Product mix guidelines Review Range Review against sales and proft budgets Review against customer profles 3. IMPLEMENTING THE SEASONAL RANGE PLAN 4. MANAGING THE RANGE IN-SEASON Progress Range Sign-off product specifcations Analyse Sales Monitor sales and proft Check new line performance Identify trends Place Orders Monitor and action critical-path dates React to Sales Take markdowns Adjust Open-to-Buy Replan merchandise Negotiate with suppliers for contribu- tions to markdowns and cancellations Preparation for On-sale Produce lay-out guidelines Follow-up suppliers Brief stores on product range features and benefts Product Clearance Implement markdowns Monitor sales response to markdowns Document implications for next season and same season next year Conduct review of season
  • 8. PLAIN SHIRTS Budget STD sales are the same for lines 1 and 2, which implies that they were meant to arrive at the same time and didn't. Line 1's sales for last week, last month and season are all the same, indicating it has only just arrived. The arrival of the line 1 stock has also lifted sales for the week of line 2, which implies that line 2 may have been starting to get fragmented. Line 3 is clearly underperforming and needs to be marked down in order to be cleared. Line 4 is over-performing and, if lead-times were suitable, it would be wise to reorder and perhaps range to all 160 stores. If reordering is not viable, a size analysis will need to be done and, if it is a reasonable size mix, the product will need to be consolidated into a smaller number of stores. If the size range consists of oddments only, then mark it down and clear it in all stores. STRIPED SHIRTS Line 8 is the only one of the striped shirts that has performed above expectations. Why that has happened needs to be investigated. The other 3 lines are all sub- standard and need to be marked down. PRINT SHIRTS All are tracking at planned levels or above. The question that needs to be addressed is “Why were so many of the print shirts only ranged to a limited number of stores?” Again if lead times were suitable, it would be wise to reorder to a wider distribution of stores. If not, then stock will need to be consolidated and/or cleared out. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ Work through the following Alderman Books mini-case study and answer the questions below: * What are your recommendations? * Should the catalogue format be adopted for future promotions? Background In early 2005 the retail book sector in Australia was going through major transformation. The arrival of international book retailer Borders, the growth of on- line seller Amazon (amongst others) and rationalisation in both the publishing and retailing side of the business set the scene for change. Two authors were dominating the market at the time. J.K. Rowling and her 'Harry Potter' series of books had ignited the interest of an entire generation to start reading again. As a result, new releases were assured of fast sell through of massive volumes of stock amidst worldwide hype regarding the plot.And Dan Brown rocketed to notoriety with the release of his somewhat controversial book 'The Da Vinci Code', meaning subsequent releases and re-releases were also assured of success. To complicate the market at the time, one of eastern Australia's largest book chains had fallen into some liquidity issues and publishers were refusing to supply them with new books until they had paid for the stock already received. As a result, they did not release a Mother's Day Catalogue in 2005. Failure to go to market with a strong current offering further exacerbated their problems, as Mother's Day is traditionally the second largest sale period in books for the entire year. Franchise chain, Alderman Books, had been performing strongly over this time and was trending up on both a 'like for like' stores and total sales basis. They were also opening new stores on a regular basis. In fact 10 new stores had been opened in the last 12 months bringing the total number of stores to 50. ALDERMAN BOOKS – MINI CASE STUDY Part. 16+ WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL) 165 166APPENDICESAPPENDICES WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL)
  • 9. The Scenario The Mother's Day catalogue for Alderman in 2005 was an outstanding success with sales of catalogue lines up by over 30% on the previous year. The new Harry Potter and Dan Brown titles both worked exceptionally well as 'hero' lines within the catalogue. The Marketing department was understandably delighted and wanted to adopt the format used as a template for future promotions. 1. What factors should be considered before doing this? Sales results have been distorted by the following factors: i. The two blockbuster books, which would have sold regardless of if they had catalogue exposure or not. There is no guarantee that books with similar 'pulling power' will be available for future catalogues. They should therefore be classified as data noise. ii. The absence from the competitive landscape of a competitor from the eastern states has created a distorted market share for this event. At the time of review, there was no indication of whether or not that retailer would survive. As a result, eastern state sales were distorted by this situation. Western Australian results would not have been impacted, as the retailer in question did not have a presence there. iii. Like for like' sales were trending up. It can therefore be safely assumed that catalogue results would have been similarly trending up, regardless of the catalogue. iv. More stores were involved in the catalogue this year. There are now 50 stores compared with 40 stores earlier. Nominally you would expect around a 25% increase in sales as a result of there now being 25% more stores (assuming that no 'sales cannibalisation' between existing and new stores had taken place). v. Increased competition from Amazon and Borders is not really relevant in this case, as the overall trending figures will take that into account. SOLUTION ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ vi. You must also look at a longer data line rather than just compare the results with last year. This year's results may look good simply because last year's results were bad. If last year was 20% down on the year before, this year's 30% increase may only be correcting an aberration from the previous year. 2. What can be done to eliminate any data 'noise' from the analysis? i. Sales results can be calculated EXCLUDING the two blockbusters. ii. Results could be compared with just the Western Australian stores. iii. The results can be de-trended to strip out the impact of general growth. Remember, the point of this analysis is to see if the format works for the catalogues. iv. Only examine results in stores that have been open for 12 months or more. If the longer data line shows that this year was not a correction, then this much smaller data sample will give you a more accurate picture than examining the total result. When all of these factors are taken into consideration, it appears that the new catalogue format was at best neutral and at worst led to a decreased result once all the data noise was removed. Decision – Do not adopt the new format as a template for future promotional activity. 167 168APPENDICESAPPENDICES WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL) WORKSHOP ACTIVITY 16(INDIVIDUAL)
  • 10. PRAKASH ‘PK’ MENON ANDREW CAVANAGH AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES Prakash ‘PK’ Menon is a globally renowned Retail, Supply Chain & Logistics & Leadership authority. A regular contributor to several UAE and international retail publications, PK is also the author of three other books - Driven - accelerate your career with smart transitioning; Supply Chain is Sexy - Harnessing the Retail Revolution; and Fail Smart - The Undeniable Link Between Failure and Success. As Executive Director of Thought Leaders Middle East, PK’s passion and expertise is to help retailers transform their organisations into global powerhouses and add signifcant dollars to their proft lines. Andrew Cavanagh brings more than 20 year’s retail buying, merchandise planning and IT experience with Myer and Coles Myer and more than 6 year’s national and international teaching experience at the Australian Centre for Retail Studies to the table. Today he focuses on his true passion, which is to develop the skills and competencies of Buyers and Planners around the world as an international facilitator. MORE BOOKS IN THE RETAIL MASTERY SERIES: OTHER BOOKS BY PK MENON: Fail Smart (TM) PK's book on Failure Intelligence. About the undeniable link between Failure and Success. Supply Chain is Sexy Transform your supply chain fromweak link to core strength with PK Menon Driven...whatever it takes! A memoir highlighting PK Menon's journey - an inspiring combination of humble beginnings to an even more humble yet awe-inspiring present. PUMP UP YOUR ROI From Good to Great Buying in Retail A guide to managing your retail business by measuring what matters. GOOD BUYER GREAT NEGOTIATOR Fact-Based Negotiation in Retail A guide to the art and skills of negotiating for retailers. POWER UP YOUR RETAIL Powerful Financial Excellence for Retail Store Managers A guide to driving outstanding retail store profits in the 21st century. CHECKMATE IN RETAIL Dynamic Strategy for Retailers in a Volatile Retail Environment A retail buyer's guide to driving outstanding profitability using effective merchandise strategy. WINNING FORMULAS IN RETAIL 108 Retail Formulas for Retail Mastery 108 formulae that every Retail Manager needs to know.
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