SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Michael Anderson
David Beamish
S. Raj Rajagopal
Shang Yen See
Juan Velandia
Fundamentally overvalued



Positioning of business lines limits      SELL
        growth potential               BITSTREAM



      Operational concerns


                                                   2
‘08 Revenue Disclosures
Font Technology
Revenue: $6.1MM                                       Services
Gross Margin: 86%                      Software         21%
                                       Licenses
                                         79%
MyFonts
Revenue: $9.6MM
Gross Margin: 26%
                                       ‘09E Revenue Breakdown

PageFlex
                                     MyFonts            Pageflex
Revenue: $6.7MM
Gross Margin: 83%                     43%                 30%
                                                 Font Tech
BOLT Browser                                       27%
Revenue: $0.1MM
Gross Margin: 20-60%                                               BOLT
                       Source: Proprietary research
                                                                   <1%
                                                                          3
BITS stock price ‘08 to present                                                    High Volume Buying
                                                                          14
8
                                                                          12
7                                                                         10




                                                   Daily Volume (10000)
6
                                                                           8
                                                                           6
5
                                                                           4
4                                                                          2

3                                                                          0
Jan-08     Jul-08      Jan-09    Jul-09   Jan-10                               Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

                    BITS    Nasdaq
                                                                          2 year mean daily volume

                                                                               Source: Capital IQ
                                                                                                                 4
Weaknesses
                                                                  Employees per division
   Allocation of resources                     100

      R&D ramp up                              80

      Insufficient focus on                    60

       sales/marketing                          40

                                                20

   Conservative corporate culture               0
                                                        97   98   99   00    01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09

                                                                    R&D      Sales & Marketing    Admin
   Historic strategy has limited
    exposure to growing international
    markets

   Excess cash not deployed
        Showing lack of growth opportunities

                                                      Source: Bitstream website
                                                                                                                          5
Printers                   Industry Display Device Sales, 2008-2013 CAGR

   Minority duopolist with Monotype               North America             2.9%

        Less than 15% market share               Western Europe                 5.5%
        Highly dependent on one customer          Eastern Europe                    7.4%
                                                       Australasia                       9.2%
             Display Devices
                                                    Latin America                                  13.5%
   FreeType has over 80% share             Middle East and Africa                                    16.2%
        Free open-source software                     Asia Pacific                                        19.0%
        Comparable performance to BITS     Source: Euromoniter
        Google funding FreeType R&D        BITS Geographical Revenue Mix
                                            100%
   Inferior product offering to             80%
                                             60%
    Monotype in Asian markets                40%
                                             20%
                                              0%
   Not exposed to fastest growing e-
    reader products (e.g., Kindle, Nook
    and iPad)                                     North America               Europe          Rest of world
                                                Source: Company reports and proprietary research
                                                                                                                   6
   MyFonts operates in a highly                  $20.0                                                                                     2.5MM
                                                             Revenue per user
    competitive niche online market               $15.0                                                                                     2.MM
                                                                                                                                            1.5MM
   Management has historically only              $10.0
                                                                                                                                            1.MM
    revealed user growth numbers, not              $5.0     Users                                                                           .5MM
    revenue growth
                                                   $0.0                                                                                     -




                                                             2004



                                                                                   2007
                                                                    2005




                                                                                                 2009
                                                                           2006




                                                                                                                       2012
                                                                                          2008


                                                                                                        2010
                                                                                                               2011


                                                                                                                              2013
                                                                                                                                     2014
   Revenue per user has actually been
    falling due to:                                          Revenue growth rate flat
                                                   20%                                                                                      2.5MM
        Increased use by non professional
         casual users                              15%                                                                                      2.MM
                                                               Users
        The resale of lower margin third-party                                                                                             1.5MM
                                                   10%
         fonts have increased ahead of                                                                                                      1.MM
         proprietary fonts                          5%                                                                                      .5MM
                                                               Revenue growth rate
                                                    0%                                                                                      -




                                                                                                                                 2014
                                                                                          2011




                                                                                                                      2013
                                                               2009




                                                                                                        2012
                                                                            2010



                                                    Source: Company reports and proprietary research
                                                                                                                                                   7
   Pageflex operates in the highly                                        Pageflex Media Exposure
    fragmented data publishing market                                                           30%

   Revenue driven by advertising spend                                       70%
    in old and new media

   Limited growth opportunities                                     Old Media (e.g. Print)     New Media (e.g. Email)
        Historic connection to old media                             Old media exposure limits growth
                                                                   15%                                  New Media
   Product characteristics                                        10%
        Product is not the low cost solution   YoY Growth rates                                                        Pageflex
                                                                    5%
         nor user friendly                                          0%
                                                                   -5%
                                                                   -10%
                                                                   -15%                                    Old Media
                                                                          2009    2010     2011      2012        2013

                                                      Source: Mintel, Advertising Age and proprietary research
                                                                                                                             8
Advertising Revenue                                       BOLT User Growth Forecast

   User behavior in flux                                      50

        AdMob  Google, Quattro  Apple                       40




                                                    Millions
                                                               30
   Monetization doubtful
                                                               20
        Mobile advertising in infancy
                                                               10
   Highly competitive industry
                                                               0
        Opera, Mozilla Firefox
                                                                     2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E
               License Revenue                     Source: Proprietary research


   No bargaining power                                             BITS Revenue Mix Forecast 2013
        Wireless carriers control sales channel
        Handset makers control platform                            BOLT, 14%

   Better substitutes
        iPhone apps, Nokia Ovi, Google Android
                                                                                                Other
   No barrier to entry                                                                        Business
        BOLT based on free ‘WebKit’ open source                                              Lines, 86%

                                                   Source: Proprietary research
                                                                                                           9
Valuation Results by Methodology
                     8.5
                                                                Only 6% Upside
                     8.0                                                                             Current Price
Stock Price (US $)




                     7.5
                     7.0                                                                             (25%)
                     6.5
                     6.0                                                                             Target Price

                     5.5
                     5.0
                     4.5
                     4.0
                                 DCF               P/E            Residual           Take Out            Bullish
                           (8.4 - 13.4% WACC)    (15 – 20x)       Income             Analysis
                            (2 - 4% T. Growth)                (20 – 60% EPS CAGR)   (2 – 3x Sales)      Bearish

                                                                                                                    10
Risks            Probability                  Mitigants

Potential takeover            Low         Blackberry recently bought a mobile
                                           browser
                                          Adobe and Monotype have superior
                                           technology

Major deal with handset     Very Low      BITS lacks the infrastructure and
maker / wireless carrier                   organization
                                          No prior experience with global
                                           carriers




                                                                                 11
Fundamentally overvalued



Positioning of business lines limits      SELL
        growth potential               BITSTREAM



      Operational concerns


                                                   12

More Related Content

What's hot

Tele2 First quarter 2012
Tele2 First quarter 2012Tele2 First quarter 2012
Tele2 First quarter 2012
Tele2
 
Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1
Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1
Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1
Caneskid05
 
MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)
MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)
MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)
Elain Szu
 
Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012
Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012
Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012
Romain Fonnier
 
Ko 2020 Geographic Overview
Ko 2020 Geographic OverviewKo 2020 Geographic Overview
Ko 2020 Geographic Overview
Neil Kimberley
 
Marketing in uncertain times
Marketing in uncertain timesMarketing in uncertain times
Marketing in uncertain times
Kantar
 
Bear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer Conference
Bear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer ConferenceBear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer Conference
Bear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer Conference
finance7
 
Handling the boom in international commerce
Handling the boom in international commerceHandling the boom in international commerce
Handling the boom in international commerce
X.commerce
 
SHW_3Q_2008
SHW_3Q_2008SHW_3Q_2008
SHW_3Q_2008
finance21
 
Hemas investor presentation june 2011
Hemas investor presentation june 2011Hemas investor presentation june 2011
Hemas investor presentation june 2011
sivanoly
 
China Mvas Changing Environment 2007
China Mvas Changing Environment 2007China Mvas Changing Environment 2007
China Mvas Changing Environment 2007
Bruno Bensaid
 
2011 State of Wireless Industry
2011 State of Wireless Industry2011 State of Wireless Industry
2011 State of Wireless Industry
iQmetrixCorp
 
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 AugustIFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
Intact
 
OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...
OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...
OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...
Linda Gridley
 

What's hot (14)

Tele2 First quarter 2012
Tele2 First quarter 2012Tele2 First quarter 2012
Tele2 First quarter 2012
 
Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1
Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1
Atvi Buy Proposal 20 Jan10 V1
 
MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)
MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)
MoPub Mobile Advertising Marketplace Report (2012 Q3)
 
Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012
Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012
Mobile advertising marketplace report - Mopub - Q3 2012
 
Ko 2020 Geographic Overview
Ko 2020 Geographic OverviewKo 2020 Geographic Overview
Ko 2020 Geographic Overview
 
Marketing in uncertain times
Marketing in uncertain timesMarketing in uncertain times
Marketing in uncertain times
 
Bear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer Conference
Bear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer ConferenceBear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer Conference
Bear Stearns & Co. 13th Annual Retail, Restaurants and Consumer Conference
 
Handling the boom in international commerce
Handling the boom in international commerceHandling the boom in international commerce
Handling the boom in international commerce
 
SHW_3Q_2008
SHW_3Q_2008SHW_3Q_2008
SHW_3Q_2008
 
Hemas investor presentation june 2011
Hemas investor presentation june 2011Hemas investor presentation june 2011
Hemas investor presentation june 2011
 
China Mvas Changing Environment 2007
China Mvas Changing Environment 2007China Mvas Changing Environment 2007
China Mvas Changing Environment 2007
 
2011 State of Wireless Industry
2011 State of Wireless Industry2011 State of Wireless Industry
2011 State of Wireless Industry
 
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 AugustIFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
IFC Investor Presentation Q2 2011 August
 
OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...
OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...
OMMA Display 2011 -- Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can...
 

Viewers also liked

Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence EvaluationDwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
craftyboii
 
Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Thriller Opening Sequence EvaluationThriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
craftyboii
 
S
SS
Potential images for magazine cover
Potential images for magazine coverPotential images for magazine cover
Potential images for magazine cover
craftyboii
 
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller  Opening  Sequence EvaluationDwayne Rapley Thriller  Opening  Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
craftyboii
 
3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure
aidanbocci
 
3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure
aidanbocci
 
ES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- Xavi
ES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- XaviES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- Xavi
ES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- Xavi
Albert Merino
 
3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure
aidanbocci
 
SAP Table Logics
SAP Table LogicsSAP Table Logics
SAP Table Logics
guestf3438c
 
I Hate PowerPoint
I Hate PowerPointI Hate PowerPoint
I Hate PowerPoint
Meeting Boy
 
Event powerpoint
Event powerpointEvent powerpoint
Event powerpoint
kbixby1
 
ES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-Ainoa
ES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-AinoaES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-Ainoa
ES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-Ainoa
Albert Merino
 
ES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marc
ES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marcES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marc
ES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marc
Albert Merino
 
Tutorial Insurance hayat
Tutorial Insurance hayatTutorial Insurance hayat
Tutorial Insurance hayat
mohd safrie
 
Pedra de tartera
Pedra de tarteraPedra de tartera
Pedra de tarteragpamplo
 

Viewers also liked (16)

Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence EvaluationDwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
 
Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Thriller Opening Sequence EvaluationThriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
 
S
SS
S
 
Potential images for magazine cover
Potential images for magazine coverPotential images for magazine cover
Potential images for magazine cover
 
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller  Opening  Sequence EvaluationDwayne Rapley Thriller  Opening  Sequence Evaluation
Dwayne Rapley Thriller Opening Sequence Evaluation
 
3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Modern Trade Diagnostic Brochure
 
3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Brand Diagnostic Brochure
 
ES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- Xavi
ES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- XaviES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- Xavi
ES3B biomassa Sílvia-Joan F-Joan C- Xavi
 
3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure
3-D Traditional Trade Diagnostic Brochure
 
SAP Table Logics
SAP Table LogicsSAP Table Logics
SAP Table Logics
 
I Hate PowerPoint
I Hate PowerPointI Hate PowerPoint
I Hate PowerPoint
 
Event powerpoint
Event powerpointEvent powerpoint
Event powerpoint
 
ES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-Ainoa
ES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-AinoaES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-Ainoa
ES3B Energia hidrulica. Anna-Carla-Ainoa
 
ES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marc
ES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marcES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marc
ES3AEeòlica samantha josep-marc
 
Tutorial Insurance hayat
Tutorial Insurance hayatTutorial Insurance hayat
Tutorial Insurance hayat
 
Pedra de tartera
Pedra de tarteraPedra de tartera
Pedra de tartera
 

Similar to Bits (Sell Recommendation)

04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final
04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final
04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final
AMD
 
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business ConferenceFuture of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
Acquia
 
Cummins_I Q3 Pres
Cummins_I Q3 PresCummins_I Q3 Pres
Cummins_I Q3 Pres
finance21
 
CMIQ3Pres
CMIQ3PresCMIQ3Pres
CMIQ3Pres
finance21
 
cmi_070521
cmi_070521cmi_070521
cmi_070521
finance21
 
cmi_070521
cmi_070521cmi_070521
cmi_070521
finance21
 
Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012
Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012
Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012
Kris Tuttle
 
Vinati organics 27_sep_final
Vinati organics 27_sep_finalVinati organics 27_sep_final
Vinati organics 27_sep_final
Four-S
 
1 q08
1 q081 q08
1 q08
ideiasnet
 
Digital Media: A driver for economic growth
Digital Media: A driver for economic growthDigital Media: A driver for economic growth
Digital Media: A driver for economic growth
Delvinia
 
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsSebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
VC Experts, Inc.
 
HYPE Market Expansion Assignment
HYPE Market Expansion AssignmentHYPE Market Expansion Assignment
HYPE Market Expansion Assignment
Bolong Chew
 
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
fb18077
 
Clipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerce
Clipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerceClipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerce
Clipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerce
Clipperton Finance
 
Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]
Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]
Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]
interlinkONE
 
Irobot presentation
Irobot   presentationIrobot   presentation
Irobot presentation
Alin Dev
 
Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"
Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"
Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"
David Shore
 
SKS Microfinance
SKS MicrofinanceSKS Microfinance
SKS Microfinance
Angel Broking
 
Inspiring Tomorrow’s Innovations
Inspiring Tomorrow’s InnovationsInspiring Tomorrow’s Innovations
Inspiring Tomorrow’s Innovations
Zinnov
 
Fostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors The Itanium Solutions Alliance
Fostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors   The Itanium Solutions AllianceFostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors   The Itanium Solutions Alliance
Fostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors The Itanium Solutions Alliance
Andrew Masland
 

Similar to Bits (Sell Recommendation) (20)

04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final
04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final
04 amd fad2010 emilio_ghilardi_final
 
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business ConferenceFuture of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
Future of Open Source 2011 Survey, Open Source Business Conference
 
Cummins_I Q3 Pres
Cummins_I Q3 PresCummins_I Q3 Pres
Cummins_I Q3 Pres
 
CMIQ3Pres
CMIQ3PresCMIQ3Pres
CMIQ3Pres
 
cmi_070521
cmi_070521cmi_070521
cmi_070521
 
cmi_070521
cmi_070521cmi_070521
cmi_070521
 
Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012
Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012
Analyst call presentation on etsy workday quora july 18 2012
 
Vinati organics 27_sep_final
Vinati organics 27_sep_finalVinati organics 27_sep_final
Vinati organics 27_sep_final
 
1 q08
1 q081 q08
1 q08
 
Digital Media: A driver for economic growth
Digital Media: A driver for economic growthDigital Media: A driver for economic growth
Digital Media: A driver for economic growth
 
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & ValuationsSebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
Sebacia Inc.- Startup Company Venture Capital Financing Deal Terms & Valuations
 
HYPE Market Expansion Assignment
HYPE Market Expansion AssignmentHYPE Market Expansion Assignment
HYPE Market Expansion Assignment
 
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
SU Student Investment Fund - Fall 2010
 
Clipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerce
Clipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerceClipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerce
Clipperton finance Sectorial Newsletter: e-commerce
 
Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]
Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]
Wide Format Printers: A Hidden Profit Pool [Global Channel Partners Summit]
 
Irobot presentation
Irobot   presentationIrobot   presentation
Irobot presentation
 
Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"
Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"
Web 2.0 Weekly - June 22, 2010: "AOL Sells Bebo for Massive Loss"
 
SKS Microfinance
SKS MicrofinanceSKS Microfinance
SKS Microfinance
 
Inspiring Tomorrow’s Innovations
Inspiring Tomorrow’s InnovationsInspiring Tomorrow’s Innovations
Inspiring Tomorrow’s Innovations
 
Fostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors The Itanium Solutions Alliance
Fostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors   The Itanium Solutions AllianceFostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors   The Itanium Solutions Alliance
Fostering An Open Alliance Among Competitors The Itanium Solutions Alliance
 

Bits (Sell Recommendation)

  • 1. Michael Anderson David Beamish S. Raj Rajagopal Shang Yen See Juan Velandia
  • 2. Fundamentally overvalued Positioning of business lines limits SELL growth potential BITSTREAM Operational concerns 2
  • 3. ‘08 Revenue Disclosures Font Technology Revenue: $6.1MM Services Gross Margin: 86% Software 21% Licenses 79% MyFonts Revenue: $9.6MM Gross Margin: 26% ‘09E Revenue Breakdown PageFlex MyFonts Pageflex Revenue: $6.7MM Gross Margin: 83% 43% 30% Font Tech BOLT Browser 27% Revenue: $0.1MM Gross Margin: 20-60% BOLT Source: Proprietary research <1% 3
  • 4. BITS stock price ‘08 to present High Volume Buying 14 8 12 7 10 Daily Volume (10000) 6 8 6 5 4 4 2 3 0 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb BITS Nasdaq 2 year mean daily volume Source: Capital IQ 4
  • 5. Weaknesses Employees per division  Allocation of resources 100  R&D ramp up 80  Insufficient focus on 60 sales/marketing 40 20  Conservative corporate culture 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 R&D Sales & Marketing Admin  Historic strategy has limited exposure to growing international markets  Excess cash not deployed  Showing lack of growth opportunities Source: Bitstream website 5
  • 6. Printers Industry Display Device Sales, 2008-2013 CAGR  Minority duopolist with Monotype North America 2.9%  Less than 15% market share Western Europe 5.5%  Highly dependent on one customer Eastern Europe 7.4% Australasia 9.2% Display Devices Latin America 13.5%  FreeType has over 80% share Middle East and Africa 16.2%  Free open-source software Asia Pacific 19.0%  Comparable performance to BITS Source: Euromoniter  Google funding FreeType R&D BITS Geographical Revenue Mix 100%  Inferior product offering to 80% 60% Monotype in Asian markets 40% 20% 0%  Not exposed to fastest growing e- reader products (e.g., Kindle, Nook and iPad) North America Europe Rest of world Source: Company reports and proprietary research 6
  • 7. MyFonts operates in a highly $20.0 2.5MM Revenue per user competitive niche online market $15.0 2.MM 1.5MM  Management has historically only $10.0 1.MM revealed user growth numbers, not $5.0 Users .5MM revenue growth $0.0 - 2004 2007 2005 2009 2006 2012 2008 2010 2011 2013 2014  Revenue per user has actually been falling due to: Revenue growth rate flat 20% 2.5MM  Increased use by non professional casual users 15% 2.MM Users  The resale of lower margin third-party 1.5MM 10% fonts have increased ahead of 1.MM proprietary fonts 5% .5MM Revenue growth rate 0% - 2014 2011 2013 2009 2012 2010 Source: Company reports and proprietary research 7
  • 8. Pageflex operates in the highly Pageflex Media Exposure fragmented data publishing market 30%  Revenue driven by advertising spend 70% in old and new media  Limited growth opportunities Old Media (e.g. Print) New Media (e.g. Email)  Historic connection to old media Old media exposure limits growth 15% New Media  Product characteristics 10%  Product is not the low cost solution YoY Growth rates Pageflex 5% nor user friendly 0% -5% -10% -15% Old Media 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Mintel, Advertising Age and proprietary research 8
  • 9. Advertising Revenue BOLT User Growth Forecast  User behavior in flux 50  AdMob  Google, Quattro  Apple 40 Millions 30  Monetization doubtful 20  Mobile advertising in infancy 10  Highly competitive industry 0  Opera, Mozilla Firefox 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E License Revenue Source: Proprietary research  No bargaining power BITS Revenue Mix Forecast 2013  Wireless carriers control sales channel  Handset makers control platform BOLT, 14%  Better substitutes  iPhone apps, Nokia Ovi, Google Android Other  No barrier to entry Business  BOLT based on free ‘WebKit’ open source Lines, 86% Source: Proprietary research 9
  • 10. Valuation Results by Methodology 8.5 Only 6% Upside 8.0 Current Price Stock Price (US $) 7.5 7.0 (25%) 6.5 6.0 Target Price 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 DCF P/E Residual Take Out Bullish (8.4 - 13.4% WACC) (15 – 20x) Income Analysis (2 - 4% T. Growth) (20 – 60% EPS CAGR) (2 – 3x Sales) Bearish 10
  • 11. Risks Probability Mitigants Potential takeover Low  Blackberry recently bought a mobile browser  Adobe and Monotype have superior technology Major deal with handset Very Low  BITS lacks the infrastructure and maker / wireless carrier organization  No prior experience with global carriers 11
  • 12. Fundamentally overvalued Positioning of business lines limits SELL growth potential BITSTREAM Operational concerns 12