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Predictive Analytics for Retail Businesses 
Cenacle Research India Private Limited
What customers want? 
•Few reasons customers come to your shop: 
•The shop has what they are looking for available in stock 
•The shop is accessible to them near by 
•The shop has optimal price structure 
•The shop has attractive promotional campaigns 
•The shop is receptive to the needs of customers and reacts in timely manner 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 2
What business owners want? 
•Gain new customers 
•Retain old customers and make them come back (again and again) 
•Edge out the competition 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 3
What business owners want? 
•Gain new customers 
•Retain old customers and make them come back (again and again) 
•Edge out the competition 
•The Million Dollar Question: How? 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 4
What business owners want? 
•Gain new customers 
•Retain old customers and make them come back (again and again) 
•Edge out the competition 
•The Million Dollar Question: How? 
•Enter Big Data Analytics. 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 5
The Key to Success 
•Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 6
The Key to Success 
•Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it 
•Biggest Challenge: 
•Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements 
•Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve 
•Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 7
The Key to Success 
•Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it 
•Biggest Challenge: 
•Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements 
•Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve 
•Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high 
•Solution? 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 8
The Key to Success 
•Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it 
•Biggest Challenge: 
•Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements 
•Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve 
•Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high 
•Solution: Profile your customers 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 9
The Key to Success 
•Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it 
•Biggest Challenge: 
•Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements 
•Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve 
•Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high 
•Solution: Profile your customers 
•Big Data Analytics can help you understand and serve each of your customer’s need uniquely 
•At the same time it also helps you optimize your business operations and reduce cost 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 10
Big Data Analytics 
Empowering the Retail Businesses make Right Decisions at the right time
Big Data Analytics: A Match in the Darkness 
•Gain Insight 
•Take Proactive action 
•Reduce waste 
•Plan better strategy 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 12
Big Data Analytics –Gain Insight 
•Gain insight into 
•Customer purchasing behaviour 
•Business dynamics 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 13
Big Data Analytics –Gain Insight 
•Gain insight into 
•Customer purchasing behaviour 
•What are my customers buying today? 
•What will they need tomorrow? 
•What has been this particular customer’s needs in the recent past? 
•When are my customers more likely to ask for this particular item again? 
•Business dynamics 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 14
Big Data Analytics –Gain Insight 
•Gain insight into 
•Customer purchasing behaviour 
•What are my customers buying today? 
•What will they need tomorrow? 
•What has been this particular customer’s needs in the recent past? 
•When are my customers more likely to ask for this particular item again? 
•Business dynamics 
•How are my sales today? 
•What are items that need restocking? 
•What is the item that is getting more demand lately? 
•Which of my promotional campaigns is driving more traffic to my shop? 
•How would my sales get affected if I increase this item’s cost by x%? 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 15
Big Data Analytics –Act Proactively 
•Custom retention 
•Act in-time before loosing a customer 
•Churn analysis 
•Understand what went wrong for those already left customers 
•Effective marketing campaigns 
•Target the right audience 
•Invest in the right promotional medium 
•Our Recommendation Engineshelp your business run smooth in selling the right products for the right customers at the right time 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 16
Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction 
•Waste Elimination 
•Optimal work-laborcosts 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 17
Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction 
•Waste Elimination 
•Stock right levels to match the consumption 
•Optimal work-laborcosts 
•Right laborschedules that match the demand 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 18
Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction 
•Waste Elimination 
•Stock right levels to match the consumption 
•Optimal work-laborcosts 
•Right laborschedules that match the demand 
•Observation: We can eliminate waste if we know the consumption/demand before hand 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 19
Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction 
•Waste Elimination 
•Stock right levels to match the consumption 
•Optimal work-laborcosts 
•Right laborschedules that match the demand 
•Observation: We can eliminate waste if we know the consumption/demand before hand 
•Challenge: How can one know the consumption / demand before hand? 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 20
Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction 
•Waste Elimination 
•Stock right levels to match the consumption 
•Optimal work-laborcosts 
•Right laborschedules that match the demand 
•Observation: We can eliminate waste if we know the consumption/demand before hand 
•Challenge: How can one know the consumption / demand before hand? 
•Solution: Our Order Prediction System 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 21
Big Data Analytics –Plan Better 
•What-if Analysis for better business strategy 
•Social media sentiment analysis for better reach 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 22
Big Data Analytics –Plan Better 
•What-if Analysis for better business strategy 
•Simulate alternate business models without disrupting the operations 
•Design optimal price modelling strategies 
•Social media sentiment analysis 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 23
Big Data Analytics –Plan Better 
•What-if Analysis for better business strategy 
•Simulate alternate business models without disrupting the operations 
•How would my incoming orders vary if I stop selling an item in my shop? 
•How would my salesget affected if I introduce new promotional offer ? 
•What happens if I replace one sourcing partnerwith another? 
•Design optimal price modelling strategies 
•E.g.: Dynamic pricing models that vary with volume, loyalty and season … 
•Explore new/alternate subscription offerings and price point opportunities 
•Social media sentiment analysis 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 24
Big Data Analytics –Plan Better 
•What-if Analysis for better business strategy 
•Social media sentiment analysis 
•Retain your loyal customers and top-performing assets 
•Evaluate your services/products against your competitors’ 
•Gain new customers and identify potential sale leads 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 25
Big Data Analytics –Plan Better 
•What-if Analysis for better business strategy 
•Social media sentiment analysis 
•Retain your loyal customers and top-performing assets 
•Know what is it that your customers like (and dislike) most about your service 
•What is making them leave (or stay with) your service 
•Evaluate your services/products against your competitors’ 
•Know how your new product list might be received (before hand) 
•Identify cross-sale and up-sale opportunities 
•Gain new customers and identify potential sale leads 
•Capture the Buy intents 
•Convert casual interests into buy intents 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 26
Big Data Analytics –End Result 
•Big Data is a match in the darkness 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 27
Big Data Analytics –End Result 
•Big Data is a match in the darkness 
•Once lit, it provides you 
Actionable Insights that let you make Informed Decisions 
http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 28
CUSTOMER ORDER PREDICTION SYSTEM 
Cenacle Research India Private Limited
Agenda 
•Model Demonstration 
•Order Prediction 
•Association Rules 
•Features: 
•Single-line command interface 
•CSV I/O –ready for any pipeline integration 
•Robust forecasting algorithms 
•Analysis on multiple levels 
•Forecast results from multiple models 
•Vast output of auxiliary data (useful for further analysis) 
•Discussion for adjustments in I/O 
•Future Model possibilities 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 30
Model 
•Order Prediction 
•How many orders expected in the next 7 days? 
•Results from multiple prediction algorithms 
•Association Rules 
•Which items are being frequently ordered together? 
•Can lead to better pricing strategy 
•Note: 
•Input data format: 
•Dates to be in ‘YYYY-MM-DD’ format 
•CSV files to be clean 
•Input Order data 
•Reasonable order quantity to get accurate predictions 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 31
Features 
•Item-wise sale predictions 
•Cost-cutting 
•Drop the low sale items from menu for specific days 
•Inventory management 
•Right levels of stock reduces waste, improves quality 
•Labor schedules 
•Improves customer satisfaction, increases work-life balance for employees 
•Customer churn analysis 
•Who are the customers most likely to stay, who would deflect? 
•Design custom loyalty programs to increase sales 
•When is the next customer visit most likely? 
•Price analytics: what would be the effect of price increase on each? 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 32
Features 
•Exploratory Analysis 
•What are the top-3 drivers for my sales during Holiday Season? 
•Which section needs more laborand during which period? 
•What are the effects of Weather on my business? 
•If I drop an item from my product list, how would it affect other item sales? 
•Social Network Sentiment Analysis 
•What are people talking about my brand? 
•How many people are feeling positive about my products? 
•How are my competitor’s products faring against my products? 
•What is the most (dis)liked feature about my product/service? 
•If I release new product, how many people are likely to buy it? 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 33
Big Data + Predictive Analytics 
•At Cenacle Research we build Analytics Engines for 
•Automotive 
•E.g.: Predictive Maintenance (CBM) systems 
•Healthcare 
•E.g.: Personalized Medicine Regimes and Decision Support Systems 
•Retail 
•E.g.: Real-time Recommendation Engines 
•Energy 
•E.g.: Demand Planning using Smart Metering Systems 
•BFSI 
•E.g.: Usage-based Insurance Systems 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 34
Big Data + Predictive Analytics 
•At Cenacle Research we build Analytics Engines for 
•Automotive 
•E.g.: Predictive Maintenance (CBM) systems 
•Healthcare 
•E.g.: Personalized Medicine Regimes and Decision Support Systems 
•Retail 
•E.g.: Real-time Recommendation Engines 
•Energy 
•E.g.: Demand Planning using Smart Metering Systems 
•BFSI 
•E.g.: Usage-based Insurance Systems 
•These Engines crunch millions of data points in Real-time 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 35
Big Data + Predictive Analytics 
•At Cenacle Research we build Analytics Engines for 
•Automotive 
•E.g.: Predictive Maintenance (CBM) systems 
•Healthcare 
•E.g.: Personalized Medicine Regimes and Decision Support Systems 
•Retail 
•E.g.: Real-time Recommendation Engines 
•Energy 
•E.g.: Demand Planning using Smart Metering Systems 
•BFSI 
•E.g.: Usage-based Insurance Systems 
•These Engines crunch millions of data points in Real-time 
•Big-data is what powers these engines 
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 36
Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 37 
It Lets you do More … 
Big Data
Cenacle Research 
Do More.

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Big Data Predictive Analytics for Retail businesses

  • 1. Predictive Analytics for Retail Businesses Cenacle Research India Private Limited
  • 2. What customers want? •Few reasons customers come to your shop: •The shop has what they are looking for available in stock •The shop is accessible to them near by •The shop has optimal price structure •The shop has attractive promotional campaigns •The shop is receptive to the needs of customers and reacts in timely manner http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 2
  • 3. What business owners want? •Gain new customers •Retain old customers and make them come back (again and again) •Edge out the competition http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 3
  • 4. What business owners want? •Gain new customers •Retain old customers and make them come back (again and again) •Edge out the competition •The Million Dollar Question: How? http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 4
  • 5. What business owners want? •Gain new customers •Retain old customers and make them come back (again and again) •Edge out the competition •The Million Dollar Question: How? •Enter Big Data Analytics. http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 5
  • 6. The Key to Success •Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 6
  • 7. The Key to Success •Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it •Biggest Challenge: •Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements •Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve •Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 7
  • 8. The Key to Success •Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it •Biggest Challenge: •Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements •Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve •Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high •Solution? http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 8
  • 9. The Key to Success •Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it •Biggest Challenge: •Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements •Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve •Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high •Solution: Profile your customers http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 9
  • 10. The Key to Success •Basic principle: Understand your customers and give them what they want, when they want it, how they want it and where they want it •Biggest Challenge: •Not all customers are equal, nor are their requirements •Nor a given customer’s requirements stay the same always -they evolve •Customers are not living in isolation –influence of external factors is too high •Solution: Profile your customers •Big Data Analytics can help you understand and serve each of your customer’s need uniquely •At the same time it also helps you optimize your business operations and reduce cost http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 10
  • 11. Big Data Analytics Empowering the Retail Businesses make Right Decisions at the right time
  • 12. Big Data Analytics: A Match in the Darkness •Gain Insight •Take Proactive action •Reduce waste •Plan better strategy http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 12
  • 13. Big Data Analytics –Gain Insight •Gain insight into •Customer purchasing behaviour •Business dynamics http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 13
  • 14. Big Data Analytics –Gain Insight •Gain insight into •Customer purchasing behaviour •What are my customers buying today? •What will they need tomorrow? •What has been this particular customer’s needs in the recent past? •When are my customers more likely to ask for this particular item again? •Business dynamics http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 14
  • 15. Big Data Analytics –Gain Insight •Gain insight into •Customer purchasing behaviour •What are my customers buying today? •What will they need tomorrow? •What has been this particular customer’s needs in the recent past? •When are my customers more likely to ask for this particular item again? •Business dynamics •How are my sales today? •What are items that need restocking? •What is the item that is getting more demand lately? •Which of my promotional campaigns is driving more traffic to my shop? •How would my sales get affected if I increase this item’s cost by x%? http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 15
  • 16. Big Data Analytics –Act Proactively •Custom retention •Act in-time before loosing a customer •Churn analysis •Understand what went wrong for those already left customers •Effective marketing campaigns •Target the right audience •Invest in the right promotional medium •Our Recommendation Engineshelp your business run smooth in selling the right products for the right customers at the right time http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 16
  • 17. Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction •Waste Elimination •Optimal work-laborcosts http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 17
  • 18. Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction •Waste Elimination •Stock right levels to match the consumption •Optimal work-laborcosts •Right laborschedules that match the demand http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 18
  • 19. Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction •Waste Elimination •Stock right levels to match the consumption •Optimal work-laborcosts •Right laborschedules that match the demand •Observation: We can eliminate waste if we know the consumption/demand before hand http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 19
  • 20. Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction •Waste Elimination •Stock right levels to match the consumption •Optimal work-laborcosts •Right laborschedules that match the demand •Observation: We can eliminate waste if we know the consumption/demand before hand •Challenge: How can one know the consumption / demand before hand? http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 20
  • 21. Big Data Analytics –Cost Reduction •Waste Elimination •Stock right levels to match the consumption •Optimal work-laborcosts •Right laborschedules that match the demand •Observation: We can eliminate waste if we know the consumption/demand before hand •Challenge: How can one know the consumption / demand before hand? •Solution: Our Order Prediction System http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 21
  • 22. Big Data Analytics –Plan Better •What-if Analysis for better business strategy •Social media sentiment analysis for better reach http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 22
  • 23. Big Data Analytics –Plan Better •What-if Analysis for better business strategy •Simulate alternate business models without disrupting the operations •Design optimal price modelling strategies •Social media sentiment analysis http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 23
  • 24. Big Data Analytics –Plan Better •What-if Analysis for better business strategy •Simulate alternate business models without disrupting the operations •How would my incoming orders vary if I stop selling an item in my shop? •How would my salesget affected if I introduce new promotional offer ? •What happens if I replace one sourcing partnerwith another? •Design optimal price modelling strategies •E.g.: Dynamic pricing models that vary with volume, loyalty and season … •Explore new/alternate subscription offerings and price point opportunities •Social media sentiment analysis http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 24
  • 25. Big Data Analytics –Plan Better •What-if Analysis for better business strategy •Social media sentiment analysis •Retain your loyal customers and top-performing assets •Evaluate your services/products against your competitors’ •Gain new customers and identify potential sale leads http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 25
  • 26. Big Data Analytics –Plan Better •What-if Analysis for better business strategy •Social media sentiment analysis •Retain your loyal customers and top-performing assets •Know what is it that your customers like (and dislike) most about your service •What is making them leave (or stay with) your service •Evaluate your services/products against your competitors’ •Know how your new product list might be received (before hand) •Identify cross-sale and up-sale opportunities •Gain new customers and identify potential sale leads •Capture the Buy intents •Convert casual interests into buy intents http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 26
  • 27. Big Data Analytics –End Result •Big Data is a match in the darkness http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 27
  • 28. Big Data Analytics –End Result •Big Data is a match in the darkness •Once lit, it provides you Actionable Insights that let you make Informed Decisions http://cenacle.co.in/ Cenacle Research India Private Limited 28
  • 29. CUSTOMER ORDER PREDICTION SYSTEM Cenacle Research India Private Limited
  • 30. Agenda •Model Demonstration •Order Prediction •Association Rules •Features: •Single-line command interface •CSV I/O –ready for any pipeline integration •Robust forecasting algorithms •Analysis on multiple levels •Forecast results from multiple models •Vast output of auxiliary data (useful for further analysis) •Discussion for adjustments in I/O •Future Model possibilities Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 30
  • 31. Model •Order Prediction •How many orders expected in the next 7 days? •Results from multiple prediction algorithms •Association Rules •Which items are being frequently ordered together? •Can lead to better pricing strategy •Note: •Input data format: •Dates to be in ‘YYYY-MM-DD’ format •CSV files to be clean •Input Order data •Reasonable order quantity to get accurate predictions Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 31
  • 32. Features •Item-wise sale predictions •Cost-cutting •Drop the low sale items from menu for specific days •Inventory management •Right levels of stock reduces waste, improves quality •Labor schedules •Improves customer satisfaction, increases work-life balance for employees •Customer churn analysis •Who are the customers most likely to stay, who would deflect? •Design custom loyalty programs to increase sales •When is the next customer visit most likely? •Price analytics: what would be the effect of price increase on each? Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 32
  • 33. Features •Exploratory Analysis •What are the top-3 drivers for my sales during Holiday Season? •Which section needs more laborand during which period? •What are the effects of Weather on my business? •If I drop an item from my product list, how would it affect other item sales? •Social Network Sentiment Analysis •What are people talking about my brand? •How many people are feeling positive about my products? •How are my competitor’s products faring against my products? •What is the most (dis)liked feature about my product/service? •If I release new product, how many people are likely to buy it? Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 33
  • 34. Big Data + Predictive Analytics •At Cenacle Research we build Analytics Engines for •Automotive •E.g.: Predictive Maintenance (CBM) systems •Healthcare •E.g.: Personalized Medicine Regimes and Decision Support Systems •Retail •E.g.: Real-time Recommendation Engines •Energy •E.g.: Demand Planning using Smart Metering Systems •BFSI •E.g.: Usage-based Insurance Systems Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 34
  • 35. Big Data + Predictive Analytics •At Cenacle Research we build Analytics Engines for •Automotive •E.g.: Predictive Maintenance (CBM) systems •Healthcare •E.g.: Personalized Medicine Regimes and Decision Support Systems •Retail •E.g.: Real-time Recommendation Engines •Energy •E.g.: Demand Planning using Smart Metering Systems •BFSI •E.g.: Usage-based Insurance Systems •These Engines crunch millions of data points in Real-time Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 35
  • 36. Big Data + Predictive Analytics •At Cenacle Research we build Analytics Engines for •Automotive •E.g.: Predictive Maintenance (CBM) systems •Healthcare •E.g.: Personalized Medicine Regimes and Decision Support Systems •Retail •E.g.: Real-time Recommendation Engines •Energy •E.g.: Demand Planning using Smart Metering Systems •BFSI •E.g.: Usage-based Insurance Systems •These Engines crunch millions of data points in Real-time •Big-data is what powers these engines Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 36
  • 37. Cenacle Research http://cenacle.co.in/ India Private Limited 37 It Lets you do More … Big Data