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Digital	
  Media:	
  What’s	
  coming	
  
and	
  what	
  to	
  do	
  about	
  it	
  
Geoff	
  Reiss	
  
Berlin	
  
3	
  November	
  2010	
  
Market	
  AssumpEons	
  
l  AdverEsing	
  revenue	
  is	
  poised	
  to	
  grow	
  dramaEcally.	
  Piper	
  Jaffrey	
  has	
  
spending	
  growing	
  from	
  $8B	
  in	
  2009	
  to	
  nearly	
  $15B	
  in	
  2014	
  
l  Available	
  inventory	
  will	
  sEll	
  grow	
  at	
  a	
  faster	
  rate	
  than	
  new	
  dollars	
  enter	
  the	
  
market	
  place	
  as	
  the	
  full	
  effect	
  of	
  social	
  media	
  plaPorms	
  are	
  felt.	
  
l  The	
  definiEon	
  of	
  what	
  consEtutes	
  mass	
  is	
  going	
  way	
  up.	
  
	
  
Market	
  AssumpEons	
  
l  The	
  buying	
  process	
  will	
  change	
  radically.	
  
l  Buys	
  will	
  be	
  increasingly	
  shiS	
  from	
  being	
  subjecEve	
  to	
  objecEve	
  and	
  will	
  
target	
  key	
  audience	
  and	
  behavioral	
  characterisEcs	
  and	
  not	
  purely	
  on	
  the	
  
basis	
  of	
  site	
  virtues.	
  
l  The	
  inventory	
  mix	
  will	
  change	
  –	
  straight	
  display	
  will	
  lose	
  a	
  third	
  of	
  its	
  share	
  
while	
  video	
  may	
  triple	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  5	
  years	
  
l  Big	
  split	
  in	
  CPM’s	
  coming	
  
Publisher	
  AssumpEons	
  
l  Expense	
  and	
  investment	
  faEgue	
  is	
  seYng	
  in	
  
l  Rapid	
  emergence	
  of	
  mulEple	
  plaPorms	
  is	
  scary	
  
l  Publishers	
  are	
  sEll	
  oriented	
  to	
  quanEtaEve	
  goals	
  that	
  may	
  no	
  longer	
  be	
  as	
  
relevant	
  as	
  they	
  once	
  were	
  
What’s	
  a	
  Publisher	
  to	
  do?	
  
l  Declare	
  what	
  arena	
  you’re	
  playing	
  in	
  
l  There	
  will	
  be	
  two	
  predominant	
  approaches	
  available	
  to	
  publishers:	
  
l  	
  The	
  numbers	
  game	
  
l  PosiEon	
  as	
  a	
  premium	
  verEcal	
  brand	
  
Publisher	
  Strategies	
  
l  The	
  numbers	
  game	
  works	
  one	
  of	
  two	
  ways	
  
l  Go	
  mass	
  	
  
l  Go	
  cheap	
  
The	
  most	
  disrupEve	
  brands	
  do	
  both	
  
Mass	
  strategies	
  
l  The	
  emergence	
  of	
  Twi]er	
  and	
  FaceBook	
  will	
  raise	
  the	
  bar	
  as	
  to	
  what	
  levels	
  
of	
  traffic	
  consEtute	
  real	
  mass	
  leaving	
  <10	
  players	
  who	
  can	
  play	
  the	
  mass	
  
game	
  
l  Cheap	
  content/traffic	
  producEon	
  offers	
  some	
  refuge	
  but	
  is	
  difficult	
  to	
  scale	
  
for	
  all	
  but	
  a	
  few	
  players.	
  	
  
Publisher	
  Strategies	
  
l  The	
  Premium/VerEcal	
  path	
  
l  Two	
  approaches	
  
l  Ad	
  driven	
  
l  Consumer	
  driven	
  
l  There	
  are	
  some	
  qualifiers	
  	
  
l  Need	
  a	
  leadership	
  posiEon	
  in	
  a	
  well	
  defined	
  category.	
  	
  
l  Need	
  to	
  be	
  either	
  essenEal	
  or	
  loved	
  –	
  or	
  both	
  
Achieving	
  Premium	
  Status	
  
l  Established	
  paths	
  thus	
  far	
  include	
  plaPorm	
  diversificaEon	
  and	
  premium	
  Eers	
  
l  On	
  the	
  sales	
  side	
  premium	
  relaEonships	
  can	
  be	
  achieved	
  by	
  	
  
l  DemonstraEng	
  superlaEve	
  demos	
  
l  Offering	
  adverEsers	
  highly	
  differenEated	
  products	
  
l  Offering	
  deep	
  levels	
  of	
  integraEon	
  that	
  go	
  beyond	
  pure	
  display	
  and	
  include	
  
relaEonship	
  markeEng	
  
What’s	
  a	
  publisher	
  to	
  do?	
  
l  Most	
  of	
  all	
  publishers	
  need	
  to	
  think	
  very	
  differently	
  
l  Become	
  audience	
  and	
  outcome	
  driven	
  
l  New	
  core	
  competencies	
  must	
  be	
  developed	
  
l  Build	
  and	
  re-­‐invest	
  in	
  taxonomy	
  
l  Build	
  pages	
  users	
  want	
  
l  IdenEfy	
  means	
  of	
  creaEng	
  differenEaEon	
  and	
  value	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
AnalyEcs	
  –	
  the	
  Key	
  to	
  Understanding	
  Value	
  
l  You	
  can’t	
  create	
  value	
  if	
  you	
  don’t	
  understand	
  how	
  it’s	
  created	
  
l  Integrate	
  analyEcs	
  into	
  daily	
  workflows	
  and	
  publishing	
  scheme	
  
Build	
  a	
  Great	
  Technical	
  PlaPorm	
  
l  A]ack	
  costs	
  
l  Impact	
  on	
  hosEng	
  
l  Impact	
  on	
  cost	
  of	
  iteraEons	
  
l  Ability	
  to	
  make	
  traffic	
  contribuEon	
  
l  Connect	
  users	
  with	
  content	
  
	
  
Where	
  does	
  this	
  leave	
  us?	
  
l  Changes	
  in	
  the	
  ad	
  market	
  will	
  leave	
  many	
  publishers	
  in	
  an	
  untenable	
  
“middle	
  posiEon”	
  forces	
  publishers	
  to	
  be	
  customer	
  driven	
  
l  Increased	
  pressure	
  on	
  expense	
  management	
  
l  Publishers	
  must	
  become	
  customer	
  driven	
  in	
  response	
  
l  ConEnued	
  opportunity	
  for	
  brands	
  who	
  are	
  category	
  leaders	
  

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2011 and Beyond - 5 Strategies for Survival in the Digital Media World

  • 1. Digital  Media:  What’s  coming   and  what  to  do  about  it   Geoff  Reiss   Berlin   3  November  2010  
  • 2. Market  AssumpEons   l  AdverEsing  revenue  is  poised  to  grow  dramaEcally.  Piper  Jaffrey  has   spending  growing  from  $8B  in  2009  to  nearly  $15B  in  2014   l  Available  inventory  will  sEll  grow  at  a  faster  rate  than  new  dollars  enter  the   market  place  as  the  full  effect  of  social  media  plaPorms  are  felt.   l  The  definiEon  of  what  consEtutes  mass  is  going  way  up.    
  • 3. Market  AssumpEons   l  The  buying  process  will  change  radically.   l  Buys  will  be  increasingly  shiS  from  being  subjecEve  to  objecEve  and  will   target  key  audience  and  behavioral  characterisEcs  and  not  purely  on  the   basis  of  site  virtues.   l  The  inventory  mix  will  change  –  straight  display  will  lose  a  third  of  its  share   while  video  may  triple  in  the  next  5  years   l  Big  split  in  CPM’s  coming  
  • 4. Publisher  AssumpEons   l  Expense  and  investment  faEgue  is  seYng  in   l  Rapid  emergence  of  mulEple  plaPorms  is  scary   l  Publishers  are  sEll  oriented  to  quanEtaEve  goals  that  may  no  longer  be  as   relevant  as  they  once  were  
  • 5. What’s  a  Publisher  to  do?   l  Declare  what  arena  you’re  playing  in   l  There  will  be  two  predominant  approaches  available  to  publishers:   l   The  numbers  game   l  PosiEon  as  a  premium  verEcal  brand  
  • 6. Publisher  Strategies   l  The  numbers  game  works  one  of  two  ways   l  Go  mass     l  Go  cheap   The  most  disrupEve  brands  do  both  
  • 7. Mass  strategies   l  The  emergence  of  Twi]er  and  FaceBook  will  raise  the  bar  as  to  what  levels   of  traffic  consEtute  real  mass  leaving  <10  players  who  can  play  the  mass   game   l  Cheap  content/traffic  producEon  offers  some  refuge  but  is  difficult  to  scale   for  all  but  a  few  players.    
  • 8. Publisher  Strategies   l  The  Premium/VerEcal  path   l  Two  approaches   l  Ad  driven   l  Consumer  driven   l  There  are  some  qualifiers     l  Need  a  leadership  posiEon  in  a  well  defined  category.     l  Need  to  be  either  essenEal  or  loved  –  or  both  
  • 9. Achieving  Premium  Status   l  Established  paths  thus  far  include  plaPorm  diversificaEon  and  premium  Eers   l  On  the  sales  side  premium  relaEonships  can  be  achieved  by     l  DemonstraEng  superlaEve  demos   l  Offering  adverEsers  highly  differenEated  products   l  Offering  deep  levels  of  integraEon  that  go  beyond  pure  display  and  include   relaEonship  markeEng  
  • 10. What’s  a  publisher  to  do?   l  Most  of  all  publishers  need  to  think  very  differently   l  Become  audience  and  outcome  driven   l  New  core  competencies  must  be  developed   l  Build  and  re-­‐invest  in  taxonomy   l  Build  pages  users  want   l  IdenEfy  means  of  creaEng  differenEaEon  and  value        
  • 11. AnalyEcs  –  the  Key  to  Understanding  Value   l  You  can’t  create  value  if  you  don’t  understand  how  it’s  created   l  Integrate  analyEcs  into  daily  workflows  and  publishing  scheme  
  • 12. Build  a  Great  Technical  PlaPorm   l  A]ack  costs   l  Impact  on  hosEng   l  Impact  on  cost  of  iteraEons   l  Ability  to  make  traffic  contribuEon   l  Connect  users  with  content    
  • 13. Where  does  this  leave  us?   l  Changes  in  the  ad  market  will  leave  many  publishers  in  an  untenable   “middle  posiEon”  forces  publishers  to  be  customer  driven   l  Increased  pressure  on  expense  management   l  Publishers  must  become  customer  driven  in  response   l  ConEnued  opportunity  for  brands  who  are  category  leaders