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© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Benchmarking Value in
the Age of AI
Dr Chris Yates
Vision Ventures
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Introduction
Dr Chris Yates
Director, Vision Ventures
Vision Ventures is a M&A advisory firm specializing in
corporate transactions and strategic consultancy in the
vision tech market.
2
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
AI has Become a Central Paradigm of Vision Tech
3
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
AI has Lowered the Barrier to Entry in Many Markets
AI deployments have been
accelerated by easily available
tool chains, processor
platforms, data sets, networks,
cloud compute
4
Example: Waste
& Recycling
Business
This has lowered the barrier for
many startup companies to
enter the market of vision tech
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
But how valuable is the AI component?
5
‘…leveraging a unique deep learning methodology…’
‘…partnership with NVIDIA
to assure using the best AI
techniques…’
…AI-powered visual
quality inspection goes
beyond the capabilities of
machine vision alone…
A problem for investors
and strategic acquirers can
be to understand how to
value the ‘AI’ component of
a business
AI technology is rapidly
developing and can be very
complex to understand for
non-experts; or appear all
similar
The cycle of innovation,
investment, growth,
acquisition is an important
mechanism in a free
market economy
‘…enhances the learning
capabilities of optimization
algorithms, particularly
neural networks, trained
according to stochastic
gradient-descent rules…’
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Breaking down the AI Impact
6
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Breaking down the AI Impact
7
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Breaking down the AI Impact
8
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Discussions on Value are Important Throughout Growth
9
Three major stages in a
company’s growth create
discussions on value
Each major group has
different key concerns
Accurately assessing
value at each stage
requires understanding
of different viewpoints
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Competitive Benchmarking & Technology Communication
10
Benchmarking References Communication
Three key ways for founders to promote the value of their AI solution:
Explain relative importance of
all components of AI to
business model
Avoid a focus on just one
aspect (e.g. inference)
General expectation is that the
technology works
Real-world deployment and
maintenance ‘stories’ are a
powerful approach to
explaining the solution, even if
only proof-of-concept
Meaningful benchmarking is
valuable, e.g. direct tests of
competitive solutions against
the same problem
Performance metrics are best
in context of customer KPIs –
e.g. parcels per hour
Competitive details are often
lacking in presentations
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Assessing Barriers to Scale
11
For investment diligence one of the most important aspects is the ability to scale – is this
helped or hindered by the AI approach in the business model?
Data and
training are
often areas
with most
impact to
scaling of
business
Data Training
Time/training to
assemble required data
Annotation and
metadata
Data security (e.g. do I
need to be on-site?)
How often is update
required?
How to add additional
parts/classes?
Size of model – training
time/cost?
*Several companies are addressing these issues by enabling the
customer to handle data and training through ease-of-use approaches
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
The Difference in Appetite for Risk
12
Founders, investors, and acquirers
have different levels of tolerance
to risk
Valuations are reduced by items
which are perceived as risky
We often assign higher risk to things
we do not understand or are
unfamiliar with
Reducing the perception of risk
benefits both sellers and buyers
during the valuation process
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Risk Reduction by Acquirers
13
Formal due diligence process is the primary
approach to risk reduction – areas for special
focus if AI is new a new focus area
Quantify where critical IP is located within company -
individuals, code, patents etc.
Understanding how the AI development will operate
after integration with existing processes
Acquired team culture and expertise and ability to
educate internally
Requirements on maintenance and support in the field
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Company Led Risk Reduction Before and During Acquisition
14
Forward synergies with the
acquirer business spread the
overall exposure to risk and so
can increase value
‘Package & Present’ AI
components for simple
integration – ‘How would X
easily fit into the acquirer
business?’
Decision makers are unlikely to
have time to understand all
technical details – different
detail levels can help structure
discussions
Synergy ‘Packaged’ AI Layered Information
Examples:
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Summary: Keys to Benchmarking AI Value
15
Understand each Perform expert
Stakeholder View Structured Analysis
Ensure clear
Communication
of AI in a business context
motivation and concerns to assess AI impact and risk
Thank You
Dr Chris Yates
yates@vision-ventures.eu
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Example: ‘Leader in AI Vision for Waste Recycling’
17
Company #1 Strategy: speed to market
and capturing market share
© 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG
Example: ‘Leader in AI Vision for Waste Recycling’
18
Company #2 Strategy: technology
development to create dedicated sector
expertise
Company #1 Strategy: speed to market
and capturing market share

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“Benchmarking Value in the Age of AI: Rational Decisions About Black Box Technology,” a Presentation from Vision Ventures

  • 1. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Benchmarking Value in the Age of AI Dr Chris Yates Vision Ventures
  • 2. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Introduction Dr Chris Yates Director, Vision Ventures Vision Ventures is a M&A advisory firm specializing in corporate transactions and strategic consultancy in the vision tech market. 2
  • 3. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG AI has Become a Central Paradigm of Vision Tech 3
  • 4. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG AI has Lowered the Barrier to Entry in Many Markets AI deployments have been accelerated by easily available tool chains, processor platforms, data sets, networks, cloud compute 4 Example: Waste & Recycling Business This has lowered the barrier for many startup companies to enter the market of vision tech
  • 5. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG But how valuable is the AI component? 5 ‘…leveraging a unique deep learning methodology…’ ‘…partnership with NVIDIA to assure using the best AI techniques…’ …AI-powered visual quality inspection goes beyond the capabilities of machine vision alone… A problem for investors and strategic acquirers can be to understand how to value the ‘AI’ component of a business AI technology is rapidly developing and can be very complex to understand for non-experts; or appear all similar The cycle of innovation, investment, growth, acquisition is an important mechanism in a free market economy ‘…enhances the learning capabilities of optimization algorithms, particularly neural networks, trained according to stochastic gradient-descent rules…’
  • 6. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Breaking down the AI Impact 6
  • 7. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Breaking down the AI Impact 7
  • 8. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Breaking down the AI Impact 8
  • 9. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Discussions on Value are Important Throughout Growth 9 Three major stages in a company’s growth create discussions on value Each major group has different key concerns Accurately assessing value at each stage requires understanding of different viewpoints
  • 10. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Competitive Benchmarking & Technology Communication 10 Benchmarking References Communication Three key ways for founders to promote the value of their AI solution: Explain relative importance of all components of AI to business model Avoid a focus on just one aspect (e.g. inference) General expectation is that the technology works Real-world deployment and maintenance ‘stories’ are a powerful approach to explaining the solution, even if only proof-of-concept Meaningful benchmarking is valuable, e.g. direct tests of competitive solutions against the same problem Performance metrics are best in context of customer KPIs – e.g. parcels per hour Competitive details are often lacking in presentations
  • 11. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Assessing Barriers to Scale 11 For investment diligence one of the most important aspects is the ability to scale – is this helped or hindered by the AI approach in the business model? Data and training are often areas with most impact to scaling of business Data Training Time/training to assemble required data Annotation and metadata Data security (e.g. do I need to be on-site?) How often is update required? How to add additional parts/classes? Size of model – training time/cost? *Several companies are addressing these issues by enabling the customer to handle data and training through ease-of-use approaches
  • 12. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG The Difference in Appetite for Risk 12 Founders, investors, and acquirers have different levels of tolerance to risk Valuations are reduced by items which are perceived as risky We often assign higher risk to things we do not understand or are unfamiliar with Reducing the perception of risk benefits both sellers and buyers during the valuation process
  • 13. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Risk Reduction by Acquirers 13 Formal due diligence process is the primary approach to risk reduction – areas for special focus if AI is new a new focus area Quantify where critical IP is located within company - individuals, code, patents etc. Understanding how the AI development will operate after integration with existing processes Acquired team culture and expertise and ability to educate internally Requirements on maintenance and support in the field
  • 14. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Company Led Risk Reduction Before and During Acquisition 14 Forward synergies with the acquirer business spread the overall exposure to risk and so can increase value ‘Package & Present’ AI components for simple integration – ‘How would X easily fit into the acquirer business?’ Decision makers are unlikely to have time to understand all technical details – different detail levels can help structure discussions Synergy ‘Packaged’ AI Layered Information Examples:
  • 15. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Summary: Keys to Benchmarking AI Value 15 Understand each Perform expert Stakeholder View Structured Analysis Ensure clear Communication of AI in a business context motivation and concerns to assess AI impact and risk
  • 16. Thank You Dr Chris Yates yates@vision-ventures.eu
  • 17. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Example: ‘Leader in AI Vision for Waste Recycling’ 17 Company #1 Strategy: speed to market and capturing market share
  • 18. © 2021 Vision Ventures Gmbh & Co KG Example: ‘Leader in AI Vision for Waste Recycling’ 18 Company #2 Strategy: technology development to create dedicated sector expertise Company #1 Strategy: speed to market and capturing market share