This document discusses Indonesia's economic outlook in 2022. It notes that while external risks remain from factors like rising US interest rates and China's property slowdown, Indonesia is well-positioned to withstand pressures due to its macroeconomic stability and buffers like large forex reserves. Business confidence and consumption are recovering as mobility increases, boosting sectors like property, infrastructure and commodities. However, risks loom from high SOE debt and weak finances, as well as the need to accelerate green energy transition amid climate change threats.

1. 1
Solidifying Indonesia’s
Post-Pandemic Future
Raden Pardede
Independent commissioner, PT Bank Central Asia tbk
BCA Trading Trends 2022
Jakarta, 14 January 2022

2. 2
2
What we know about the Omicron variant (so far)
3.2x
More likely to cause
infection compared
to the Delta variant
Source: Imperial College London
<20%
Effectiveness of
two-doses vaccines
Source: NHS, study of AstraZeneca,
Moderna, & Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine
55-85%*
Effectiveness after a
booster shot
Source: NHS, study of AstraZeneca,
Moderna, & Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine
42countries
currently imposes full or
partial travel restrictions
due to the Omicron variant
Omicron: What we know?
0.2%
Omicron case fatality ratio
Source: Our world in data
*Efficacy rate depends on layers of medical conditions

3. 3
3
Omicron’s spreading fast, but appears to be less lethal
365
0.78
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
12/2021
03/2020
Delta
0.035
0.404
Omicron
03/2020 12/2021
Delta
New Cases (per 1Mn) Confirmed Deaths (per 1Mn)
Hospitalisation rate for Omicron
cases in South Africa
26.6
% of fully-vaccinated South African
(Indonesia 41.2%)
<2%
Source: Our World in Data, last update 24/12/2021
Omicron: What we know?
Omicron
Indonesia
South Africa
Indonesia
South Africa

4. 4
4
Omicron: Different epicentre, Different impact
Zero-Covid Policy, early Omicron
detection could leads to abrupt
lockdown measures
Supply bottlenecks worsen 
add fuels to inflationary pressure
Pragmatic approach,
dramatic social distancing measures
are unlikely due to high political costs
to implement such policies
Gov’t could reintroduce stimulus 
Demand unlikely to falter
Omicron: What we know?
United States
China

5. 5
5
The Fed and PBOC: Diverging Trajectories?
World’s two leading economic powerhouses reveal contrasting signals regarding their policy outlook for 2022
Inflation-wary, tight policy
Targeted Easing Policy in
the midst of structural reform
3 (or 4?) Fed Rate hikes in 2022
LPR slashed to 3.8%
Global Macroeconomic Setting

6. 6
6
Commodity exporters could be in a disadvantageous position due
to spillover from the Fed’s hawkish policy…
121
71
96
163
890
531
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-00 Feb-03 Mar-06 Apr-09 May-12 Jun-15 Jul-18 Aug-21
DXY
SPGSCI
Source: Bloomberg, last update 23/12/2021
Global Macroeconomic Setting
Commodity prices tend to move inversely to the strength of the US Dollar
USD Index
S&P Commodity index

7. 7
7
‘Build back better’ camp Manchin III & the Republican
…while fiscal stimulus withdrawal could further
diminish US consumers demand
Sen. Joe Manchin III retract supports for President Biden’s build back better plan

8. 8
8
China’s property woes also spells trouble for commodity exporters…
Global Macroeconomic Setting
17.3
1.7
HKD
HKD
Evergrande stock price
movement
06 Jan 2021
06 Jan 2022
29%
Real estate contribution
to China’s GDP (Q3 2021)
197 Bn USD
Debt due in Jan 2022
19.8 Bn USD
Dollar-denominated
offshore debt due in
Q1 2022
Source: Bloomberg, Fitch
RD
Evergrande’s Fitch
rating since Dec 2022

9. 9
9
-12.7
17.5
31.7
0.9
5.9
7.1
0
4
8
12
16
20
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17 Oct-17 May-18 Dec-18 Jul-19 Feb-20 Sep-20 Apr-21 Nov-21
…as China dominates demand in the global commodity market
Commodity consumption by
China – Throughout Q3 2021
1st COVID
lockdown
Evergrande missed
debt payments
CPO
Nickel
Coal
Copper
73.9%
15.7%
46.3%
55.1%
Source: Bloomberg, last update Nov 2021
Source: UN-Comtrade
China Import index
Li Keqiang index
CNFRIMPMY CLKQINDX
Global Macroeconomic Setting

10. 10
10
Vietnam
India
Thailand
Russia
South
Africa
Malaysia
Turkey
Indonesia
Argentina
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 10 20 30 40
Robust macro
stability
Vulnerability to the
US monetary policy
Vulnerable Resilient
The Indonesian economy is far from vulnerable…
Macro stability and vulnerability to American monetary policy, Indonesia
compared to peers (index, 2021 or later)
Bigger bubble size reflects higher domestic financial
market volatility Source: The Economist, IIF, RaboBank
Quite stable
compared to
ASEAN peers
Ongoing Lira crisis
Our Economy in 2022

11. 11
11
…due to ample ammunitions to fend off external pressures
 Trade balance surplus US$ 29.3 Bn
 Robust fiscal posture (~98% tax realisation)
 Foreign Reserves: US$ 144.9 Bn
 China’s economic
slowdown(?)
Our Economy in 2022
 External debt/GDP 37.5%
 Stable inflation at 1.87% YoY
 CAD -0.8% GDP
 Tight monetary cycle
 Omicron uncertainty

12. 12
12
0.50
1.85
0.69
Q1-19
Q3-21
Businesses are getting more confident throughout 2021…
Corporate Indonesia* performs well in 2021…
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
8.9
-4.8
1.9
2.3
-1.2
3.0
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21
…which could increase demand for lending
to finance expansion projects
Source: OJK, last update Q3 2021
Our Economy in 2022
*600+ companies
listed in the IDX
Revenue
CAPEX Balance
sheet
Q2-20 (Z-score)
Q3-21 (Z-score)
Consumptive loan
Productive loan

13. 13
13
…thanks to higher mobility that boosts economic activity…
Our Economy in 2022
Source: BCA Big Data, Google. Last update 17/12/2021
-32%
29%
-21%
24%
-42%
7%
Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
Indeks Transaksi Belanja Indeks Transaksi Bisnis Google Mobility Index: Retail dan Rekreasi
Intrabiz n = 60512

14. 14
14
…which further translates to higher demand for big ticket items
4
109
5
100
62
114
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
Car sales
Motorcycle sales
Cement sales
Index, Jan 2020 = 100
Source: BPS. Gaikindo, AISI. Last update Nov 2021
5.9 mn tonnes
87.4
th. unit
463.6
th. unit

15. 15
15
Higher inflation could make a comeback as lending
growth expands money supply…
Source : BPS, BI, OJK, BCA Economist calculations. Last update Nov 2021
* Prices under government control, mainly energy but also cigarette excise, airline tariffs, etc.
Lower real
interest rate
Higher demand
for credit
Expanded
money supply
Higher
inflation rate
Lending is historically associated with an increase in core inflation
% YoY % YoY
Jan-2008 Nov-2021
Core inflation to
rise in 2022?
Core inflation (de-trended)
Loan growth (de-trended)
Core
inflation
Loan
growth
-20
-10
0
10
20
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Our Economy in 2022

16. 16
16
11.00
24.70
22.30
2.77
3.22
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
Mar-11 Sep-12 Mar-14 Sep-15 Mar-17 Sep-18 Mar-20 Sep-21
CKPN (Tn IDR)
Modal (Tn IDR)
LAR %
NPL %
…nonetheless, Banks remain resilient as LAR*
continue on its recovery path
LAR continue to normalise ahead of the scheduled credit relaxation policy withdrawal in March 2023
Our Economy in 2022
Source: OJK, last update Q3 2021
*LAR of 12 big Indonesian banks

17. 17
17
Some sectors could fuel economic recovery in 2022
Infra-
structure
F&B
CPO and
derivatives
Telecom
Mineral
Mining
Logistics
Petro-
chemical
Bigger bubble size reflects
higher sectoral GDP
Higher YoY
growth
Medical
tourism
Higher FDI due to SOEs
divestment
Digitalisation,
infrastructure
development
Biogas
Battery and EV production chain
Higher shipping
demand
Source: BPS
Healthcare
Our Economy in 2022

18. 18
18
9969
8660
7268
3757
6309
Global warming is the next major threat to our economy
As a tropical country, adverse impact of global warming to Indonesia could be more severe
2020 2050
Temperature hike
scenario by 2050:
<2OC
2OC
2.6OC
3.2OC
Indonesia per capita GDP projection
(constant 2015 USD)
US:
PDB -4.2%
Finland: PDB -2.7%
China:
PDB -11.5%
Indonesia*
PDB -39.5%
India
PDB -35.1% *Worst scenario in 2050
impact:
Indonesia
rank
𝟑𝟑
𝟒𝟖
𝟒𝟏
𝟒𝟖
𝟒𝟓
𝟒𝟖
𝟐𝟕
𝟒𝟖
𝟑𝟕
𝟒𝟖
Climate change and EBT transition
Source: Climate Action Tracker

19. 19
19
Decades of innovation have made energy transition more practical…
0.86
0.58
0.77
0.69
0.19
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
Fossil Fuel Financing
Green Financing
Fossil fuel financing decline in relative to green financing
USD Tn
Renewables’ prices have grown increasingly competitive
359
40
135
41
123
155
83
56
111 109
0
100
200
300
400
2009 2019
Levelised cost of
energy^ (USD/MW)
^Cost of building the power plant plus ongoing costs for fuel and power plant operations
Source: Data from Lazard, compiled by Our World in Data
* Data for 2021 only includes figures up till 14 May 2021
Source: Bloomberg
Dashed line: non-renewable energy
Climate change and EBT transition

20. 20
20
10%
68%
90%
99%
25%
8%
0% 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050
EBT Share
Coal Share
…although Indonesia would cling to coal a bit longer
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2011 2017 2023 2029
Coal,
59.4%
Gas,
15.4%
Oil, 0.4%
EBT,
24.8%
Paris Climate
Agreement
2020 Paris Agreement benchmark… …against PLN’s 2030 roadmap
Source: Climate Action Tracker Source: RUPTL 2021-2030
8% vs 59%
in 2030
Climate change and EBT transition

21. 21
21
2030
2040
2050
2021 2060
Steam power
plant projects
cancelled*
*Kecuali sudah financial closing
EBT 23%t,
Solar
LPG import
restrictions
EV sales
reach 2mn
cars, 13mn
motorcycles
Indonesia begins to implement a gradual
energy transition plan…
Diesel and steam
power plant phased
out (phase 1)
EBT 57%
(Solar, Hidro, Geotermal)
EBT 66%
(Solar, Hidro,
Biomass)
Non-EV
motorcycle
restrictions
Commercial operation
date for tide and nuclear
power plant
EBT 93%
(Solar, Hidro,
Bioenergy)
Non-EV car
restrictions
EBT ~100%
(Solar, Hidro,
Onshore wind)
Steam power
plant<1GW
Sumber: Kemen-ESDM, PLN
tTarget pada 2025
Climate change and EBT transition
Diesel and steam
power plant phased
out (phase 2)

22. 22
22
Which could be financed through several ways
APBN
PLN
Capital expenditure
Carbon Tax
Electricity and Fuel
subsidy reduction
Electricity tariff
increase
Sales of steam power
plant
Alternative sources:
 International institutions
 testing COP 26’s
financing commitment
 Green bonds
 Infrastructure REIT
 Cross subsidy (while
energy commodities price
remain high)
Climate change and EBT transition

23. 23
Thank You

24. 24
24
Appendices

25. 25
25
-173.1%
-10.4%
GIAA BUMN Karya (exc. PP, HK)
06/2016 06/2021
Negative EBITDA
Ponzi
Speculative
Hedge
BUMN high-profile tidak
mampu menanggung
beban bunga
EBIT per Cost of Debt and Capital Expenditures
(%)
Source: Bloomberg, BCA Economist
0
Risk of SOEs bankruptcy threaten banks’ performance in 2022

26. 26
26
06/2014 06/2021
Level of Financial Stability - Subsidised Level of Financial Stability - Non Subsidised
COVID-19
Energy SOEs’ finance also heavily dependent on
Government subsidy
EBIT per cost of debt and capital expenditure: PLN
Source: Bloomberg, BCA Economist

27. 27
27
SOEs’ financial performance is worrying to say the least
2.30
0.64
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay Tot Int Exp T12M
CAPEX EBITDA T12M
4.13
0.95
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay Tot Int Exp T12M CAPEX EBITDA T12M
20 BUMN tbk (Tn IDR) Infrastructure SOEs (excl. HK)
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021

28. 28
28
2.98
0.31
3.43
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay Tot Int Exp T12M CAPEX EBITDA T12M
EBIT compared to spending (Tn IDR) Z-score
Financial Profile: Petrochemical Industry
1.21
0.53
2.18
Q1-19
Q3-21
Revenue
CAPEX Balance
sheet
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021

29. 29
29
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-1.5
-0.8
0.0
0.8
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Petrochemical Industry (Z-score)
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021

30. 30
30
-0.07
0.76
1.09
Q1-19
Q3-21
Financial Profile: F&B Industry
F&B (Tn IDR)
0.25 0.27
0.78
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay
Tot Int Exp T12M
CAPEX
EBITDA T12M
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
Z-score
Revenue
CAPEX Balance
sheet

31. 31
31
F&B Industry (Z-score)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline

32. 32
32
Financial Profile: Mining Industry
Mining (Tn IDR)
0.92
0.31
1.16
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay
Tot Int Exp T12M
CAPEX
EBITDA T12M
Z-score
0.78
1.11
-0.11
Q1-19
Q3-21
CAPEX
Revenue
Balance
sheet
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021

33. 33
33
Mining Industry (Z-score)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-1.5
-0.8
0.0
0.8
1.5
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline

34. 34
34
Logistics (Tn IDR)
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.01
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
Z-score
Financial Profile: Logistics Industry
2.09
0.34
-0.07
Q1-19
Q3-21
CAPEX
Revenue
Balance
sheet

35. 35
35
Logistics Industry (Z-score)
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline

36. 36
36
Healthcare (Tn IDR)
0.05 0.06
0.27
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay
Tot Int Exp T12M
CAPEX
EBITDA T12M
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
Z-score
Financial Profile: Healthcare Industry
4.58
0.50
-0.34
Q1-19
Q3-21
CAPEX
Revenue
Balance
sheet

37. 37
37
Healthcare Industry (Z-score)
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline

38. 38
38
Infrastructure (Tn IDR)
0.43
0.44
0.14
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay
Tot Int Exp
T12M
CAPEX
Z-score
Financial Profile: Infrastructure Industry
-0.05
0.22
-0.09
Q1-19
Q3-21
CAPEX
Revenue
Balance
sheet
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021

39. 39
39
Infrastructure Industry (Z-score)
-3.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
Minat ekspansi usaha:
 Tumbuh kuat  Tumbuh lemah  Turun
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline

40. 40
40
CPO (Tn IDR)
0.57
0.33
1.41
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay
Tot Int Exp T12M
CAPEX
EBITDA T12M
Z-score
Financial Profile: CPO Industry
0.23
0.17
0.21
Q1-19
Q3-21
CAPEX
Revenue
Balance
sheet
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021

41. 41
41
CPO Industry (Z-score)
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
0.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline

42. 42
42
TELCO (Tn IDR)
4.33
8.70
Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q3 2021
LT Repay Tot Int Exp T12M CAPEX EBITDA T12M
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
Z-score
Financial Profile: Telecommunication Industry
-0.26
0.41
1.07
Q1-19
Q3-21
CAPEX
Revenue
Balance
sheet

43. 43
43
Telecommunication Industry (Z-score)
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Q1-14 Q3-14 Q1-15 Q3-15 Q1-16 Q3-16 Q1-17 Q3-17 Q1-18 Q3-18 Q1-19 Q3-19 Q1-20 Q3-20 Q1-21 Q3-21
z-score
Source: Bloomberg, last update Q3 2021
EBIT
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline
Balance Sheet
 Deleveraging
 Organic
Deleveraging
 Leveraging
CAPEX
 Solid growth
 Some growth
 Decline