The document discusses Barack Obama's presidency from 2008 to 2012. It summarizes Obama's campaign in 2008, his domestic policy agenda including healthcare reform and economic stimulus, and his mixed record on foreign policy issues. It then analyzes Obama's reelection campaign in 2012 and expectations for his second term, including continued focus on economic recovery through investment and fiscal discipline. The document concludes by arguing Obama will win reelection and has been one of the best post-FDR presidents, suggesting a model for center-left parties in Europe.

1. Whatever happened to
that Barack Obama?
Anthony Painter
Oxford University Labour
Club
25th October 2012
@anthonypainter

2. Looking back at 2008
• Favourable context: foreign policies failures (notwithstanding surge),
Lehman, Palin but...
• The campaign: Dean '04, Move On, community organising and civil
rights movements, the new organisers ----> a new civic corps.
• Structural change in US society- from an emerging Republican majority
(Kevin Phillips) to an emerging Democratic Majority (Teixeira/Judis).
Ideopolises, Hispanics, millennials, also some geographical shift
towards working class expresses an economic rather than cultural
interest - Macomb County, Michigan (Kerry lost by 16k, OB wins 36k).

3. Some people got
carried away

4. The hope and (moderate) changey thing
– post election
• Ditches the movement for change- OFA. Civic corps vision dead.
• Gets on with governance. The shock of prose after poetry.
• Agenda clear but hidden behind visionary veneer.

5. President Obama -
the record
• A constitution built for Obama's populated by McConnells
• On the domestic front - significant reform:
• ARRA - stimulus (Detroit bail out, green tech, science, R+D,
CCs/schools/Pell Grants/AOTC, infrastructure), race to the top, Lilly
Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, D-F reforms, Affordable Care Act.
• Social rights- Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell repeal, fair pay, support for single-sex
marriage, contraception coverage in ACA.
• Failure on immigration, climate change with exception of higher fuel
efficiency standards and long-term fiscal rebalancing (Simpson-Bowles)
but....those pesky Republicans.
• Nation-building!

6. And overseas....
• Mixed....
• Better and healthier bilateral relations, the dismemberment of AQ
Central, troops out of Iraq, withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia (what
can we agree on?), Libya, slow start on Arab Spring but then support,
building support in Asia Pacific.
• BUT.....
• Middle East, Iran, predators, Guantanamo Bay, predators drones- long
term cost and moral, legal, political questions?, AQ affiliates - Yemen,
Algeria, Mali, Somalia, New regimes in Arab countries.
• A clear strategy, steady and, careful judgment, pursues all alternatives,
but....the world's a complicated place.

7. Candidate 2012
• A strong President in trying times.
• The normalisation of Barack Obama.
• Ohio 08 v Ohio 12 – movement v machine, inspiration v narrow-
casting/micro-targeting, professionalisation v amateur enthusiasm.
• '08 campaign lives on here and there, eg. Nevada, but no more than that.
• The Republicans- the desperate Romney living in his father's shadow.
• Emerging Democratic majority still in Obama’s favour....

8. 2012 change - demographic
undercurrents
• Minority electorate up 3%, non-college white down 3%, college white up
0.2%
• Ohio +1 ethic minority vote (EM), -3% non-college whites (NCW); Co +2
EM, -4% NCW; NV +4% EM, -5% NCW.
• Romney leading Obama amongst white men- 60-34 (McCain was +16%),
Obama 70% amongst Latinos.
• And Rust Belt lean Obama post-bailout....?

9. The battleground

10. Obama can still win without Ohio….

11. The second term
• The clue is in Budget 2012...nation rebuilding....literally
• Mix of tax increases for the wealthy and spending cuts across the board
on a ratio of 1:2.5.
• Many of the cuts come in healthcare expenditure reductions.
• Despite this, it contains ambitious plans for job creation in the short term,
investment in schools and community colleges, a major increase in
spending on science, innovation and tax credits for manufacturing, green
tech, half a trillion dollars’ worth of investment in surface transportation,
and a National Infrastructure Bank as well.
• ‘Buffett rule’ named after corporate investor Warren Buffett who has
argued that those earning over $1m should pay at least 30 per cent of
their income in tax.
• It eliminates tax breaks for oil, gas and coal companies and imposes a
financial responsibility fee on Wall Street banks.

12. And overseas...
• Iran, Israel, Syria
• Pakistan
• Afghanistan withdrawal
• AQ and its affiliates
• Managing relations with China
• If anything MORE challenging second ter m .

13. Lessons for the centre-left
• Invest despite austerity. Build institutions of economic progress cf US
and UK.
• Fiscal discipline a must.
• Funded social programmes (ACA/Pell Reform) - childcare, social care -
rather than large-scale redistribution.
• Fair contributions from the top.
• Pragmatic internationalism.
• Oh, and the movement for change thing....that’s important.

14. Final thoughts
• Obama will win.
• He'll deserve to as he has been one of the best post-FDR Presidents.
• His original movement and his governance agenda suggest a new model
for the left in Europe.
• Nation-building left.
• Oh, and a prediction.....