Bangladesh CASE STUDY draft for Bangladesh team review_Nizam

E3 Analytics and Evaluation Project: SERVIR Performance Evaluation – Case Study Bangladesh 1
CASE STUDY: BANGLADESH– JASON-2 FLOOD FORECASTING
SYSTEM
Executive Summary
ACRONYMS
Insertnewtable forBangladesh

INTRODUCTION
This case study on the JASON-2 flood forecasting and warning system for Bangladesh
developed by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) hub,
with support from SERVIR, is a part of a larger multi country/multi product case study of the
wider effects of SERVIR and its worldwide activities.
SERVIR PERFORMANCE EVALUATION & METHODOLOGY
This case study is part of a larger performance evaluation, which is being carried out in phases
over an approximately three-year period, and is intended to develop an empirical understanding
of the results produced by SERVIR activities. It also provides an opportunity to examine how
USAID, NASA and the partner hubs might address any immediateopportunities for the hubs to
better serve their target countries/communities. The evaluation will also provide USAID and
NASA with information and materials to inform the design and implementation of any future
regional hubs. This case study is intended to address the first and third of the following three
evaluation questions:
1. What are the impacts of SERVIR’s Science Application efforts? More specifically (a) how
are SERVIR products being used in decision-making contexts? and (b) what are the
measurable impacts of the use of SERVIR products and applications
2. What are the impacts of SERVIR’s capacity-building efforts on hubs to become stronger
regional service providers?1
3. What is the value calculated as benefits (e.g., cost savings, losses averted in economic
and human terms) of SERVIR’s capacity building, science applications, data-sharing
efforts (categories listed above), and global network?
These findings in this report describe the results of evaluation data collection that took place in
May-June of 2015. Because there is limited knowledge on how SERVIR products are being used
once they are developed and disseminated, the bulk of the evaluation design is based on a non-
experimental case study approach.
The evaluation design employs a mix of methods, some of which focus on quantitative data
while others focus on qualitative data that might be obtained about the adoption and utilization
of SERVIR science applications. There is no study bias towards one of these types of data, but
overall the approach favors gathering data from multiple sources on all questions and foster
strangulations using varying types of data to enhance the quality and ensure the reliability of
answers the team provides to USAID’s evaluation questions. Thus, for Question 1.a, pre-test data
1 Because of its broader multi-regional focus,question two is being pursued usinga separate methodology, and is
not included in the findings for this casestudy.

were expected to be more qualitative in nature and for Question 3, data were expected to be
more quantitative and involve the monetization of benefit data where possible, and for
Question1.b in particular, pre-test plans anticipated the collection of both quantitative and
qualitative data. Ultimately, due to the extremely narrow and limited degree of product usage,
the majority of the information used to address the evaluation questions was qualitative in
nature.
BACKGROUND
Country Context
With an area of less than 150,000 sq. km. and a growing population of over 160 million,
Bangladesh has one of the highest population densities in the world. Geographically, most of
the country is only a meter above sea level and crisscrossed with more than 230 waterways,
creating the “world’s most dynamic hydrological [system] and the biggest active delta
system2
.”Each year snow melt water from the Himalayas, monsoon rains from Nepal and India,
and rains falling on Bangladesh cause the rivers to swell and bring vital nutrient-rich sediment
across the low-lying agricultural and ‘char’3
lands. This yearly revitalization of the soil has
created one of the most fertile regions of the world and is the basis of Bangladesh’s dynamic
agricultural sector4
, However, due to these abundant floods and waterways Bangladesh is
ranked number one in the world risk index5
for floods, and extreme flood events regularly wreak
havoc on the economy, creating obstacles to development, food security, and poverty
alleviation.
Around 30% of the country regularly experiences annual flooding during the monsoon season,
while extreme flood events can affect as much as double that, with floods that spread over 60%
or more of the country drastically affecting the economy and human security, exacerbating food
security, poverty and development goals across every sector. Direct losses from flooding
include direct fatalities, damaged infrastructure, damage to livelihood through losses to
agriculture, livestock and industrial products, while indirect losses from suspended economic
activities intensify the impact of these losses.
For this reason, Bangladesh takes extensive structural and non-structural measures to counter or
mitigate the effects of flooding. One of the principle non-structural measures is the flood
forecasting and warning6
.
State of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh
2 Citation
3 Islandsformed with sediment created lands within the river systems
4 TEERR_Bangladesh_Background_Report_DFID2013
5http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk
6A full review ofthecurrent stateof Flood Forecasting andWarningcan befoundin the “Annual FloodReport2014” fromthe Flood
ForecastingandWarningCentre and the Bangladesh Water DevelopmentBoard: http://www.ffwc.gov.bd/images/annual14.pdf

The product under review in this case study is SERVIR’s JASON-2 flood forecasting system; the
newest in a long series of steady improvements to Bangladesh’s forecasting capacity.
Government flood forecasting for the purposes of issuing warnings and mitigating impacts from
flood events has been conducted in Bangladesh since the establishment of the Flood
Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) in 1972. For this reason, the relevance and utility of the
JASON 2 product cannot be fully understood without a general understanding of Bangladesh’s
existing flood forecasting and warning network.
Initially, when the FFWC was first established, it was only able to provide a few hours of advance
warning in a limited number of key locations, but over the past four decades their capabilities
have been steadily improving. At this time, they are able to accurately predict stream flow levels
for 54 flood vulnerable locations in Bangladesh up to five days ahead of time. The five-day
forecasting capabilities that are currently in place were granted official status in 2012 after a
four-year testing period as part of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Program, an
ambitious disaster response capacity building program by UNDP. The In addition to improving
the flood prediction capabilities in Bangladesh, CDMP has also provided support for mobile
phone based alert systems and several non-flood disaster activities.
At this time, the JASON-2 flood forecasting product has only been partially integrated into
Bangladesh’s flood prediction in response system, as the product is still considered to be in the
experimental phase. The JASON-2 product has seen some limited dissemination to decision-
makers, but it cannot be utilized more broadly until its testing and calibration phase is
completed and its scope is expanded. Despite its limited range of usage, the JASON-2 product
represents a major milestone for the FFWC and its parent organization the Bangladesh water
development Board – this is the first time that geospatial data has been used for hydrological
monitoring in the Bangladeshi government. Until now, all flood monitoring and forecasting
activity has utilized stream gauge data collected throughout the country, shared stream flow
information from upstream water sources in India, and meteorological information.
Because almost all of the major waterways in Bangladesh either originate in or pass through
India7
before emptying out into the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh is highly dependent on water
flow data from India for its flood forecasting information. Through a bilateral agreement
between Bangladesh and India, Bangladesh receives data from 7 water flow stations from major
waterways in India. Additionally, the Bangladesh Water Development Board collects data
domestically, maintaining 54 of its own stream gauge points on29 main waterways, which
provide much more extensive information on the current state of hydrology and Bangladesh
and assist in validating the authenticity of the data from India. Those data sets, in conjunction
with carefully monitored rainfall data, has enabled Bangladesh’s Flood Forecasting and Warning
Center (FFWC) to generate and continually maintain five days of advance stream flow and flood
predictive data.
7 One major river enters Bangladesh from China.

Figure 1: FFWC Water level classifications
During the rainy/flood season that stretches from June to October, these stream flow and flood
predictions are updated 2-3 times a day, and are used to generate region-specific risk warnings
that are tied to current stream heights relative to historic flood levels (see figure 1).
Dissemination of Bangladesh’s Flood Warning System
The flood forecasting warning center (FFWC) of Bangladesh is the point of origin for a
substantial range of hydrological and meteorological information. Within the context of
conventional floods (as opposed to coastal storm surges and flash floods) their formal
prediction and analysis dissemination revolves around three products:
 Continuously updated inundation status maps
 Five-day prediction tables
 Daily “Rainfall and River Situation Summary” bulletins
Inundation and stream flow
status maps
The front page of the FFWC
website presents a map of
Bangladesh featuring color-coded
markers indicating the status of
flood likelihoodin 54 different
locations around the country
(Figure 2). Additionally, a
continuously scrolling ticker along
the upper edge of the page
displays the current stream flow
heights of various waterways
throughout the country
Figure 2: Detail of color-coded inundation map from July 27, 2015

accompanied by the height at which that point would be considered to be in a flood state, and
an arrow indicating whether those waters are rising and falling. The webpage also features links
to a variety of other flood related information on other pages of the website. For Internet users,
this website serves as a convenient and straightforward way of rapidly assessing the state of
Bangladesh’s current flood status.
Bangladeshi government officials working in the flood and disaster response sector at the
national, district, and sub-district level, were all aware of this webpage, and checke it on a
regular basis during flood season.
Five-day prediction tables
The five day forecast is an essential part of the FFWC’s flood prediction capacity. (insert line from
report) Prior to 2012 the extent of the FFWC predictive window had been three days. The
additional capability was only recently developed as part of the CDMP-II program, done through
the support of the UNDP and other donor agencies working in Bangladesh. An example of the
five-day prediction tables can be found in annex zz
Daily “Rainfall and River Situation Summary” bulletins
Each day, based on the same data that drives their five-day forecasting, the FFWC produces
flood bulletins that are disseminated directly via email, fax, and hardcopy, or can be downloaded
from a link on their website. As seen in figure3, these bulletins present the most important flood
related situations for any given day8
. Information from the bulletins is also sent through a
number of other media channels, including radio, television, SMS, and IVM. Although the eight
day forecasts from the JASON-2 product are not regularly incorporated into these bulletins, the
FFWC does have the authority to use their professional discretion on including whatever
additional information they regard as important in the interests of managing flood
preparedness and response in Bangladesh.
8 The FFWC makes their decisions regardingdaily bulletin contentbased on current and historic flood activity,
informed by their own technical knowledge and experience.

Figure 3: Highlights of the 5-day forecast are included under the “Outlook” heading.
Dissemination
The daily “Rainfall and River Situation Summary” is the principal document for the dissemination
of flood forecasts and warnings is the Rainfall and River Situation Summary. The primary
recipient is the Ministry of Disaster Management and Response(MDMR), but other institutions
also receive this bulletin directly or indirectly from the FFWC, including the PM’s Office,
President’s office, Bangladesh Army, all layers of local administration, the news & electronic
media, and several relevant NGOs and INGOs. Additionally, the most pressing and essential
pieces of information from these bulletins are also shared through mobile phone channels, via
the FFWC’s SMS alerts, an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) phone number service, and a Voice
Message Broadcast (VMB) system. Additionally, anyone who cares to visit the website and
download the bulletins. Bulletins and information from those notices can, of course, also be
shared directly between individuals through word-of-mouth communication as well.
The JASON-2 ‘s 8-day forecasts are also included in this dissemination process, though not to
the same degree as the 5-day forecast, due to their experimental status. The numbers of people
who directly receive the 8-day forecasts are limited to higher level staff at the MDMR and select
other individuals who are aware of the product’s limitations and experimental status.

Figure 4: Comparative dissemination flows for
data from the5-day and 8-day forecasts.
Dissemination beyond this could not be
confirmed. Although the FFWC does include the
JASON-2 data in the daily reports that it sends
to a select group of high-level stakeholders,
none of the individuals at those institutions who participated in the interviews were aware of
receiving JASON-2 data or any other 8-day forecasting, and the only interviewees outside of the
IWM and the FFWC who were aware of the JASON-2 predictive capabilities were researchers
from private companies or academic institutions.
Product Overview

The JASON-2 flood forecasting system uses radar-based altimetry to calculate stream height,
and gets its name from the JASON-2 satellite9
, which measures water levels or water elevation
and provides the data relatively promptly (“near-real time,” i.e. within 24 hours).In this case, the
observation of river levels upstream of Bangladesh, cross-referenced with river level forecast
data from the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC), produces a hydrological model that can be
used to forecast flood inundation in Bangladesh by as much as 8 days in advance.
During Bangladesh’s flood season (June to October) the JASON 2 data is used to generate an
eight-day forecast each morning. That forecast, as seen in figure 4, shows the observed data
from the previous eight days and the projected data for the upcoming eight days as a linear
time series that indicates the rise or fall of river levels at nine location points on the Ganges and
Brahmaputra rivers. These nine location points correspond to nine of the 54 location points that
are covered by the conventional five day forecast as well (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: A sample 8-day forecast table taken from the JASON-2 forecast on August 17, 2015
The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) became interested in the application of
JASON-2 data for the purposes of flood predication after interacting with geospatial data
specialists connected to ICIMOD and the SERVIR program in 2013. With formal approval from
ministerial authorities at the Ministry of Water Resources , FFWC collaborated with SERVIR,
ICIMOD, and the Institute for Water Modeling (IWM) through a development process, which
included technical support, and staff training from ICIMOD. The FFWC began making the
JASON-2 data available on their website at the beginning of the 2014 flood season10
. Although
there were initial problems with the accuracy of the product’s outputs, the longer the product
9
The JASON-2 satellite was originally put in place to observe ocean circulation, sea level rise, and wave
heights using radar altimetry. Although stream height monitoring was not its initial purpose, the
incorporation of the satellite name into the product’s name enables easy distinction between the radar -
based altimetry approach and other forms of geospatial approaches to hydrological measurement
10
The official five-day warning is presented on the front page of the website, while the JASON-2 forecasts
must be accessed by selecting the product from a pull down tab on that page.

was used and calibratedthe more accurate it became. By the conclusion of the 2014 season the
product’s future accuracy and utility were established, and the FFWC opted to keep the product
available on their website. In 2015, data from a French-Indian altimetry-measuring satellite
called AltiKa (SARAL) was added to the system to supplement the data from JASON-2, providing
more complete upstream data and improving the accuracy of flood forecasting.
Figure 6: The large red and yellow dots indicate the locations of the nine JASON-2 Forecast Stations
on the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers
As mentioned previously, the JASON 2 forecasts are published daily on the FFWC website, as
well as being shared with a limited number of government professionals working in the

hydrology and flood sector. Additionally, information from the eight-day forecast can
theoretically be included in the more widely distributed daily “Rainfall and River Situation
Summary” bulletins if needed11
, although today this is only happened one time.
The observed instance of usage took place in August of the 2014 trial run during an ongoing
flood situation where JASON2 data on river levels in Indian region of Brahmaputra detected two
unexpected flood peaks flowing downstream into Bangladesh into the Northwestern Region of
Rangpur/Kurigram. The 5-day forecast at that time suggested that the floodwaters were
receding, but the advanced information from JASON-2 indicated that the flooding was not yet
concluded, helping FFWC accurately revise and update the regional synopsis on flood
inundation and recession time inside Bangladesh. In essence, JASON2 data provided FFWC an
advance notice that was then available institutionally in various levels of decision making.
Individuals from the FFWC, and the primary creator/designer of the JASON 2 products cited this
incident consistently in separate interviews, but no other interviewees had any specific
recollection of that particular piece of flood data or what was done in response to it12
.
Product Performance
As mentioned previously, flood level forecastingin Bangladesh requires a high level of accuracy
due to the generally flat nature of terrain and high population density in the floodplain.
Warnings are expected to be accurate down to 25 cm accuracy at the longest lead time to be of
decision making value to stakeholders. This level of accuracy is not yet available over the eight-
day JASON-2 window13
, but the system is expected to continue to improve as time progresses.
Despite not yet reaching the 25 cm level of desired predictive accuracy that the FFWC requires
for official FFWC predictions, warnings and alerts, the JASON-2 forecasts are still provided on
the FFWC website along with other flood related forecasts. Additionally, the FFWC monitors the
product’s outputs closely, and are authorized to inform the appropriate individuals at the
Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MDMR) and other relevant Bangladeshi
government offices in situations where the extended forecast data indicates a significant
positive or negative change from the projected flood outlook14
.
Although the JASON-2 product is still in an experimental phase at this time, and the director of
the FFWC stated that the 8-day prediction can be reclassified as an official component of the
Bangladesh flood warning and dissemination practices if:
11 “Need” in this case is determined based on the professional discretion of the FFWC.
12
The absence of outside confirmation for this incident should not be regarded as surprising. The event in
question was a single piece of data on a single daily bulletin; the FFWC sends out a new bulletin every
day, seven days a week for the entire six month flood season. Coming as this one did, four months into
the flood season in the middle of what was ultimately a 21-day period of flooding, the chances of
someone remembering that particular item and how it affected response activity is extremely low.
13
JASON-2 modeling accuracy currently ranges from 30-80 cm.
14
This is done based on the professional judgement of the FFWC staff.

 Four full years of testing demonstrates that the JASON-2 outputs are consistent
and reliable. The 5-year prediction model underwent a similar four year testing phase,
and given that only two years of testing have been instituted (counting the current flood
season) a minimum of two more years are still in store.
 The product expands to cover more sites. At this time the JASON 2 forecasts cover
less than 17% of what is included in the official five day predictions. Although the
locations covered are priority sites in highly flood vulnerable regions, a successful
expansion of that coverage will be necessary to justify the additional work that the
JASON-2 products usage entails.
These expectations are based on the standards set out by the FFWC, and if they are met, then
the JASON 2 product can be fully adopted without any need for approval from other
government institutions.
Question 1A: Is the JASON-2 flood forecasting data being used in
decision-making contexts?
To answer this question, the E3 analytics and evaluation team met with a wide range of existing
and likely product users. In this case, product users includes both the individuals work directly
with the JASON-2 modeling data (e.g. hydrologists in both the academic and public sectors), as
well as people working in the flood and disaster response sector, as well as individuals from
flood vulnerable communities. The priority for the research team was to understand not just
how the SERVIR product was used, but how the information generated by the SERVIR product
was used/disseminated, and under what circumstances.
Based on these interviews, focus groups, and a review of organizational literature, the research
team was only able to identify a very narrow and limited range of JASON-2 product usage at this
time, though this is expected to change.
To understand the current and potential future state of product usage and product data usage it
is important to review the existing and potential users and understand how they are already
using the official 5-day prediction data.
National government
As the name indicates, the Ministry of Disaster Management (MDMR) and Relief is the primary
national government institution responsible for disaster management, response and recovery,
and the rehabilitation of disaster affected people. This mandate does not extend to flood
analysis, modeling and forecasting, but instead they are reliant on the information given to them
by the FFWC and other entities within the Water Resources Ministry. Based on conversations
with MDMR staff and local and regional partners, the primary active role for the MDMR comes
during the post-flood recovery stage. Regional and local government institutions are better
positioned to manage the situation as it is taking place, so during that period the MDMR is
primarily focused on monitoring the situation, disseminating forecasting and warning messages

to the public, sharing information with District-level officials, and communicating with other key
national-level institutions within the Bangladeshi government.
“The government does not have preparedness activity. During the flood the assistance is
less than the necessity. They are interested in after the flood activities for example, relief
distribution. But NGOs work before, during and after the flood.” (Local NGO rep in
Kurigam)
The bureaucratic delays have traditionally affectedthe speed of decision making by the national
government, but according to an interviewees at the FFWC and the MDMR, better data and a
broader range of information are getting to decision makers more quickly. According to a
hydrology engineer working for the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) in the flood-
prone region of Gaibandha, the extension of the predictive window to five days has been driving
faster and more effective decision making and delegation of authority to officials at the District
and Upazilla15
level. This has resulted in quicker disaster responses, which were credited with
significant reductions in loss of property and life from disaster events.
Regional and local government
Due to challenges of geographic inaccessibility, the bulk of the government’s on-the-ground
response during flood events is handled at the District and Upazilla (Sub-district) level; national
government activity is primarily concentrated in the post-disaster relief and reconstruction
phase.
“We followFFWCwebsitethat display thestatusof whole Bangladesh.”(GaibandhaDRRO)
District and Upazilla level government officials receive regular stream flow and rainfall status
report updates each day from the MDMR during emergency events, and maintain regular
communication with local-level representatives and civil society members of the areas by using
cell phones, office telephones, and personal contacts. This allows them to pass messages to
some of the more accessible stakeholders almost immediately. However, the people of remote
islands remain out of reach due to lack of communication and scarcity of human resources
within the local level government offices. District and Upazilla-level officials use information
from the FFWC and the MDMR to take decisions on:
 Monitoring of response activities
 Suspension of staff leave
 Around the clock staffing of the district control room for updating and dissemination of
water level information to Upazilla and Union Parishads16
, and smaller communities
 Transmission of flood-status updates to Bangladesh Army units in nearby Cantonments,
Journalists, District Commissioner Offices, and any appropriatenational institutions.
15 An Upazilla isa sub-district
16 Union Parishad’s are the smallest rural administrative unit of local government in Bangladesh, usually
consisting of approximately nine villages.

 Transmission of government-recommendedand mandated evacuation orders to Upazilla
and Union Parishads
Based on local knowledge, flood severity, and regular review of FFWC/MDMR flooddata from
the FFWC and district and national offices, Union Parishids make decisions to contact potential
flood victims if there is a need to seek shelter or evacuate, and they are also responsible for the
decision to deploy Gram Police (Village Police) and Local Ansar-VDP to guard the villages and
protect local assets from bandits and looters in the event of floods/evacuations.
“Sometimes, we assume water will be going down next day, but suddenly within the
night, we see our house is going under water. We elevate cot up to water level and live
over there with children and other belongings. We cook, had meal, and sleep over there.
It is dreadful experience. We have safe place to move children and elderly, but suddenly
water come up and do not get time to move to safer place because not all of us have
boat. The current are so strong that we cannot dare to cross the river by boat. The char
(Island) is scattered, separated by rivers, and distant from the mainland. There is any
facility to buy food or necessary goods; therefore, we suffer from lack of food, medicine,
water. People having no such experience could not even imagine frightfulness of flood.”
Char Bosra focus group participants.”
In these cases, having a clearer idea of the severity and length of the flooding can inform the
decision to evacuate or not evacuate. The addition of three days to that decision-making
process can assist with that decision, reducing the likelihood of evacuation in the case of a less
serious flood. Decision making related to home evacuation can also exhibit a range of variability,
as evacuated households are often at risk for theft and banditry during times of crisis. Even
when the government issues orders for forced evacuation, the affected communities may refuse
to leave their homes unless they can be convinced of the severity of the upcoming flood events.
In these cases a longer predictive window can be used by local government responders to
persuade locals of the need for evacuation when they might otherwise be inclined to try and
wait out what is likely to be a severe and sustained flooding event.
NGOs
Based on interviews with local government officials and NGOs working in flood vulnerable areas,
NGOs have access to a broader range of information sources (e.g., NGO network, donors, and
international bodies) and are better positioned to respond quickly to flood disasters17
. NGO
decision-making and flood-response activities related to floodalert information include:
 Administrative response preparedness
 Preparation of risk assessment and situation analysis reports for donors
 Review of past information for preparation of evacuation strategy
17This level of awareness is well known, andwas mentioned by a focus group of NGO staff who stated that
government officialswill often turn to NGOs for situation analysis reports duringflood events.

 Initiation of funding request process prior to flood events to ensure effectiveness of their
actions
 Preparation of emergency response and rehabilitation budget for submission to donors to
seek financial supports
 Preparation of response plan (in consultation with government officials) and division of
responsibilities with other organizations working in same area
 Community mobilization and awareness of threatened areas.
In particular, the recent increase to5-days of forecasting lead-time was credited with increased
effectiveness in four specific areas:
o Purchasing of relief materials at competitive prices
o Reduction of staff deployment cost (e.g. through prepositioning in strategic areas)
o Early mobilization of local volunteers and distribution of responsibilities among them
o Early deployment enables coverage of wider areas to assist more victims
NGO focus group participants felt that the addition of three more days’ notice would have
similarly beneficial results, but they were not able to speculate as to the degree.
Flood vulnerable communities
Local flood vulnerable communities facea complex mixof decision-making options when faced
with warnings and alerts prior to flood events. During flood season, and particularly during the
monsoon season (June-July) the villagers remain at a higher state of alertness. Men who do
seasonal labor in other parts of the country will often return home during flood season to assist
in the event of disasters, and increased attention is given to the radio and television news. Less
isolated communities, and those with active local NGO programs appear to be better connected
to FFWC-generated flood forecasting information, and are more likely to receive alerts from
various sources, e.g., TV, radio, local government representatives, neighbors, relatives, and the
local mosques/mandirs. In more isolated areas, particularly those without electricity, male
members make an effort to take more trips to market to watch TV at tea stalls and socialize, in
the interests of increased access to flood-warning messages.
Recently, forecasting message dissemination has taken a positive turn as national and private TV
channels have become more consistent in their provision of flood forecast warning messages
prior to possible floods. This information is based on the FFWC bulletins, and includes the
names of vulnerable districts, probablewater levels, suggested preparations to for local
populations, and evacuation notices. TV channels have also recently begun providing coverage
of response actions, a practice that was absent earlier.
As the people get flood warning information from their various sources the following village-
level activities take place:

 Village committees are formed to divide responsibility among people of the village
to protect assets from bandits
 Food is distributed to poor and unprepared households
 People who have houses on raised platforms give shelter to flood victims.
 Community people collectively assist those at the greatest risk for getting washed
away by shifting households materials to safer places prior to the arrival of the floods
 People take steps towards flood preparedness by storing food, fuel, firebox, dry
spices, etc.
 People decide whether or not to liquidate livestock and poultry to avoid capital loss
from floodwaters, theft, and potential fodder scarcity
 Pregnant mothers and children are relocated to relatives’ houses in safer locations
 Money is set aside for emergencies
 Bamboo platforms are built to protect poultry, livestock and other materials from
floodwaters18
The decision to liquidate or not liquidate assets is one where flood length and severity is
particularly crucial. As one focus group participant stated:
“People are predicting that there will be massive flood this year, so that some people are
selling their cows, goats and other livestock before the flood. During flood, the sell
pressure increases so that they do not get price of their livestock. Before flood, if they
get message before 5 days that their districts and union will be flooded, they can save 80
percent of their daily wages, food, crops, vegetable, livestock and other household
assets.”
Many other community-level and household decision making options are also dependent on
the types of flood events. For example, floods in the early part of the flood season can be
handled through adjustments to planting schedules (e.g. delaying or replanting crops affected
by the inundation), while early harvests can be conducted in anticipation of late-season floods
may enable the salvaging of some percentage of crops. Notice of upcoming flood events can
also prompt farmers to delay fertilizingof crops until after floodwaters recede to avoid it being
washed away and wasted. Knowing length and severity of the flooding events can also be useful,
as market prices and supply chains are regularly affected along with higher likelihood of
livestock and crops store losses.
Even nonfood crops are significantly affected by predictions related to flooding, notably jute, a
fibrous plant that is grown for its use in rope and cord making, can be stored under water, and
in fact soaking is a component of its preparation for processing, but if stored or soaked for too
long and water, it begins to rot, becoming useless. As jute is one of the primary cash crops in
many of the flood prone regions, growers must execute a mental calculus when assessing when
18 Interestingly, this was described as a relatively new practice in the visited areas.

and if they can soak their jute harvests and still recover them in time for them to remain market
ready and sellable.
A precise enumeration of all the various proactive steps that are enabled or expanded by 5 or 8-
day warning windows cannot be established without a much more extensive and ambitious
round of data collection. In all of the examples listed above, extra days provide more
opportunities for cooperative afford, strategic relocation, and economic decision-making.
Factors Affecting Adoption, Use, and
Usability
Experimental Status
The primary factor affecting adoption and use of the
JASON-2 products and its warnings is the fact that it
is still in the experimental stage. It only covers a
limited number of locations and it has not been
formally incorporated into the official government
warnings that are disseminated throughout the
flood vulnerable regions. Until the eight-day
warning becomes the norm, it is unrealistic to
expect the level of usage to change significantly.
That said, the product has established itself enough
that the FFWC is monitoring its outputs carefully,
and is willing to disseminate the eight-day warnings
to key actors, despite the products unofficial status.
Awareness
The issue of awareness is one that can be expected
to change as the JASON-2 product transitions from
the experimental phase to a formally utilized
predictive approach. That said, there are still
challenges related to the Bangladeshi governments
flood forecast and warning dissemination approach, particularly those related to the apparent
limits to flood warning data among the most isolated (and potentially flood vulnerable
communities.
Out of 22 interviewed institutions, six had some level of knowledge regarding the existence of
the JASON-2 product, while the others were entirely unaware of it. Out of the six who were
aware of it, only four organizations had directly interacted with the JASON-2 products/data and
Figure 7: A farmer stands by a river gauge
station on the Brahmaputra River

only two of those, the FFWC and the IWM, are direct users engaged in flood forecasting19
. This
lack of awareness, however, does not necessarily mean that the product’s information is not
being used as most users will not know the specific sources for the data and analysis that
informed those warnings. Not all flood activity requires the transmission of warnings or alerts to
potentially affected communities. Under normal circumstances, water levels change gradually,
rising or falling based on prior upstream water activity (rainfall, snowmelt, and the opening
closing of sluice gates of dams (inside or outside of Bangladesh ).
The problem of product awareness, though less than ideal, should not be a matter for concern
within the context of flood forecastingand alert dissemination. As long as people have access to
the FFWC’s warnings, their ignorance as to the source data driving those warnings does not
preclude their ability to act accordingly.
People don’t know what types of data/information available at which office. The owner or
custodians of information are conservative and reluctant to share the information. The excuses
are ready to them for not sharing reports or data/information.
For example, the Ministry of Environment and Forestry generates lots of data on environmental
status, forest coverage, vegetation coverage, etc., but nobody knows what data they already
have. The ministry implement 2 to 3 projects on Climate Change, despite they still cannot tell
you what data they have.(POBA)
The area where lack of awareness becomes problematic is among potential academic and
technical audiences. As with any new technical approach to prediction and modeling, the more
people are aware of the products existence, the greater the likelihood that it’s broader potential
can be realized in the other areas.
There is still a need to raise awareness at the local level on DRR policies, as these have not been
well communicated to all stakeholders. The roll out of the Disaster Management Act 2012 and
Standing Orders on Disaster 2010 from the national to local level has faced some challenges.
Bangladesh must develop a communication policy to promote public awareness, with a greater
focus on gender and inclusion issues in DRR. Local level Disaster Management Committees need
to be well equipped and have adequate capacity to implement DRR actions. Mr. Mohammad
Abdul Quyyum, NPD of the CDMP-II & Additional Secretary of the GOB was quite clear on this
point:
“Information dissemination system of flood forecasting is developednew, but
Bangladesh is facing challenges to dissemination at the grassroots level. There is no
direct information dissemination system developedat the community level. Information
generally being disseminatedthrough website, hotline, and email but rural people have
limited access to this information.”
19
The other two organizations that interacted with the JASON-2 product directly, (name orgs), considered
using it for research, but concluded that it did not meet their specific for their current products at this
time.

Capacity
In the case of the FFWC, capacity is a significant challenge in terms of expanding potential usage
of the product and its dissemination. The incorporation of the IWM into the data processing and
management phase of the JASON-2 product has been critical to the ability of the FFWC to use
the product, and the training in product usage that was provided to the FFWC through ICIMOD
and SERVIR have enabled the use of the product at its current levels, but any expansion beyond
that is not possible with their current staffing levels. In reference to the core delivery team at the
FFWC, the creator of the JASON 2 products said, “…they are four person doing the work of 40
workforce.”
Capacity challenges were observed at other levels as well. The scale of available resources is not
always sufficient to support all the necessary community and local government initiatives on
DRR. An exploration of potential public-private partnerships for DRR may yield opportunities to
increase resource availability with results that are helpful to both public and private sector
interests, through both corporate social responsibility funds and public /private investment to
protect drivers of growth from disaster risks.
Institutional credibility
One of the most important factors affecting products adoption is one of credibility. In particular,
one of the greatest challenges implicit to this project’s desired success, and even the larger
success of the FFWC is that of local attitudes towards the efficacy and reliability of flood
prediction warnings altogether. Field researchers described an attitude that combined aspects of
skepticism and divine fatalism among some community members who had little reason to trust
second or third hand assurances of technological reliability. “Only God can predict a flood”, said
one local resident.
This attitude, however, shows positive signs of adjustment. According to one local informant, the
attitudes towards flood prediction have become significantly more favorable over the past five
years as the warnings have grown more accurate. This was also reflected in the noted trend of
locals traveling to the market more often during flood season to have greater access to said
flood warnings. If this trend continues, the current five day warning forecast will continue to
grow in its audience responsiveness, laying the groundwork for broader acceptance of and
attentiveness to eight-day forecasts as well.
On the other hand, people’s awareness about warning by siren, loudspeakers announcements
etc. brought frustration among people as false warning frustrated community people earlier so
that they do not believe in warning message from the government officials but it is gradually
changing owing to accurate forecasting for last the last couple of years. At the same time,
people uphold traditional knowledge and belief which may play a role for not believing the
forecasted message. SERVIR need to disseminate available information to the people. Economic,
social, agricultural and human losses have been reduced from the early warning system.

Question 1B: What are the measurable impacts, both intended and
unintended,of SERVIR’s productsand applications on the relevant
societal benefit areas?
Among all the interviewee at the community level to whom the field team met with, use of
satellite data was nearly nonexistent. The attribution of JASON2 products on impact and
measurement of extend of impact in economic term was complex task. The absence of clearly
identified JASON2 product usage has in turn resulted in an absence of identifiable impacts from
these products.
Increased chance of encountering a warning
When discussing issues of predictive time frames, and the capacity to take advantage of
advance warnings, it is easy to be drawn into a narrow discussion about the comparative value
of a three day versus a five day versus an eight-day warning window. This discussion, however,
neglects the on the ground reality faced by flood vulnerable communities: just because bulletins
are being sent out on a daily basis does not mean that those bulletins are being received on a
daily basis. The riverine communities in places like Gaibandha and Kurigram are somewhat
isolated, and not well connected to communications infrastructures. Although electrical access is
common in many parts of rural Bangladesh, that is not always the case.
In particular, the families and communities that are settled on the “chars,” sediment-rich fertile
islands in the middle of the great upper reaches of the Ganges and the Brahmaputra may only
come in contact with flood warnings when they travel into town to visit the market. Similarly,
during certain times of the year fishermen and farmers have little time to spare, and work long
days with little human contact beyond their own immediate families. In these cases, the
extension of the predictive window from a five day to an eight-day forecast may not mean the
difference between having half a week or a full week to prepare, but instead it may simply mean
the difference between hearing a warning and not hearing a warning.
Table 1: Absolute Risk of Missing a Warning
Absolute Risk of Missing a Warning (assuming a consistent schedule)
DaysofAdvancedWarning
Contact Days Per Week
Once a week Every 6 days Every 5 days Every 4 days Every 3 days Every 2 days
Every
day
1 86% 83% 80% 75% 67% 50% 0%
2 71% 67% 60% 50% 33% 0% 0%
3 57% 50% 40% 25% 0% 0% 0%
4 43% 33% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
5 29% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

6 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
8 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
An individual who only travels to market one day a week has a 29% chance of missing a flood
warning based on the five day forecast, depending on which day the warning comes in which
day goes to market. (See table 1) by extending the forecast to a full eight days, this ensures that
even if he can only visit the market once a week, he can always be assured of at least one or two
days warning before a major flood event takes place.
An important aspect of flood warning dissemination is the issue of frequency of access among
recipients. The potential utility of a five day or eight-day warning is entirely contingent on the
recipients’ access to those warnings on daily basis. In cases where recipients are only in contact
with elements of the dissemination network on an intermittent basis, the extension of a five day
forecast to an eight-day forecast may not necessarily provide them with eight days of warning,
but rather it increases the likelihood that they will receive warnings about flood events farther in
advance.
Table 2: Average Number of Preparation Days after Warning
Average Number of Preparation Days after Warning (assuming a consistent schedule)
DaysofAdvancedWarning
Contact Days Per Week
Once a week Every 6 days Every 5 days Every 4 days Every 3 days Every 2 days
Every
day
1 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.25 0.33 0.50 1.00
2 0.43 0.5 0.6 0.75 1 1.5 2
3 0.86 1 1.2 1.5 2 2.5 3
4 1.43 1.7 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
5 2.14 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
6 3.00 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
7 4.00 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
8 5.00 5.6 6 6.5 7 7.5 8
For example, a person whose primary exposure to messages from the FFWC only takes place
once a week during his Friday evening visit to the mosque has a (29% chance?) likelihood of
missing a warning for a flood event that is five days away. An eight-day warning, however,
would ensure that at least one or two days of advance notice was available to that individual,
providing them with at least limited notification. Additionally, given that word-of-mouth
communication channels are an essential component of how individuals in isolated communities
receive their information; the extended warning also increases the opportunities for those
disseminated warnings to reach vulnerable communities despite their isolation or remoteness.

Not only does the eight day warning ensure that the recipient is able to receive it in spite of his
weekly schedule, it also dramatically affects the actual number of days available for response
activities. As seen in table 2 a person who only visits the market once a week will still have, on
average, five days of warning in which to respond
Changing attitudes towards prediction
The communities in flood-vulnerable regions of Bangladesh have lived with and adapted to the
annual floods for literally thousands of years. Locals spoke of being able to recognize specific
environmental clues that warned them when on impending flood was likely – the behavior of
insects, the flight patterns of specific birds, and even distinctive wave patterns that are seen
moving down the river all provided clues to an impending flood event. Although floods can be
disastrous in their household impact, they are also accepted as part of a yearly cycle and an
extension of the “Will of God.”
However, as flood forecasting has become significantly more accurate people’s perception
towards it has gradually changing. According to interviewees working in flood vulnerable
communities this is a recent phenomenon. Even five years ago people were skeptical towards
flood forecasts on the TV and the radio, while now most people appear to trust the warnings
and take appropriate measures when possible. This was directly remarked on by a local
hydrologic engineer for the BWDB in Kurigam:
“The perception of [most] people about flood has changed. Huge human, livestock, and
properties loss was common phenomena because evacuation was merely impossible
before the flood for experience of false forecasting and traditional belief. People did not
believe or trust on flood early warning message.”
Usage Outside of the Decision-Making Context
Notably, an additional aspect of usage and impact was identifiedfor the JASON-2 product,
albeit outside of the decision-making context. The product was seen as having clear utility for
strengthening the overall quality of stream flow data quality monitoring in three specific ways.
1. Independent Monitoring of Hydrological Conditions in India: Prior to the
introduction of the JASON-2 product, the FFWC and their parent organization the
Bangladesh water development Board were beholden to the government of India for
access to information on hydrological data for all of the water sources flowing into
Bangladesh across the India/Bangladesh border. Although the information sharing
relationship was a positive one, it was also an uneven one, which left Bangladesh
with no data alternatives in the event that the daily stream flow updates from India
were interrupted for any reason. Now that the JASON-2 program is in place, the
Bangladeshi government has its own consistent and reliable means of monitoring
stream flow from India and assessing the precision of the stream flow data that India
shares with them.

2. Data quality validation and triangulation: although the Bangladesh water
development Board has access to both their own collected data and data from India,
the JASON-2 products provides a third source for stream flow data, and one that is
collected in an entirely different fashion by a third-party apparatus. This enables the
cross comparison of multiple data streams, a process that facilitates opportunities for
calibration, and increase confidence in data outputs. According to the Water Resources
Planning organization (WARPO) and IWM representatives, this has added value to existing
data collection methods.
3. Quality control and oversight: the daily information from the 54 gauge stations
around the country is collected by individuals who are tasked with the job of the
visiting those stations every day of the year at the same time each morning to record
that data. Although the task is a simple one, the circumstances are such that a gauge
reader facing other obligations or diversions could very easily record the stream
height at some other point during the day, or even simply provide a reasonable
guess that is consistent with recent past performance in lieu of actually visiting the
gauge station. The process of identifying and addressing this sort of reporting and
accuracy is extremely cost prohibitive, but according to the Executive Engineer of the
Water Development Board of Gaibandha District,“ satellitedata madegauge readers more
accountable to take accurate reading of water level since they know there is check and
balance system at hand.” The knowledge that there exists a satellite collecting the
same information as the human gauge readers has motivated those gauge readers
to be more disciplined and consistent in their gauge monitoring activities.”
Question 3: What is the value calculated as benefits of SERVIR’s
capacity building, Science Applications, data sharing efforts and global
network?
Every year, flood damages incur losses of human lives, crops, livestock, houses, and household
assets. A precise estimation of losses from the 2014 flood is not available at this time, but some
general facts are known. The flooding in 2014, affected more than810,000 people in 10 districts,
displacing more than
50,000 and leaving 9
people dead. Food
insecurity, waterborne
diseases, and limited
access to public health
care services produced a
number of subsequent
health hazards as well.
Lack of privacy and

inadequate toilet facilities also left women vulnerable in the flood shelters. Tube-wells became
contaminated by flood waters, and flood protection embankments, schools, houses, roads, and
bridges were all damaged.
Many people did not leave their houses before or during flood caused by fear of stealing
household assets. Dacoits usually attack and mugs livestock and other assets during a flood.
During flood, the prices of
moveable assets tumbled
drastically that caused
huge economic loss. The
price of livestock asset went down for up to 10% to 40%. The early flood forecasting message
helped char dwellers to take decision on sale of livestock and assets before flood to reduce
capital losses.
From the beginning of May, people start taking initiatives as a part of coping strategies during
the flood; the strategies for saving lives, properties, crops, and household assets including
livestock. When the flood water persists for 4 to 5 days it leads to the destruction of growing
seedlings in the submerged land, and the destruction of crops may increase if the water persists
for an extended period
“Last year we planted rice three times, but consecutive flooding damaged all the three
times after we transplanted it. People harvested jute, stock for rotting but high-speed
current during flood washed away, many were stolen. If we knew earlier that the flood is
coming then we would have tie them in a safe place and we would not have to lose
them. Again, we thought the water will go away soon but it stayed more than we
expected, so the drowned jute rotted completely. It was huge economic loss for
farmers20
.”
-Community leader from the village of Char Bozra
Destruction of houses made from straw, bamboo, and mud led to decreased security, increasing
incidents of theft. In some districts districts, the Union Parishad Chairman and members
arranged for Gram (local)Police,
volunteers, and villagers to guard
the village and protect its people’s
households and assets against
thieves and bandits, but a lack of
security persists in the villages
situated in the remote and
isolated areas.
Farmers, who did not receive
flood-forecasting message ahead
20Tk. 45,000 loss per hectare in case of jute, and three plantings of rice require Tk. 15000 per hectare
including seedlings.
Figure 9: A farmer in Kurigam char area carries a sack of green grass
for livestock during the flood.
Figure 10: Table of average household savings per sector from
the CDMP study.

of time, said that they could have delayed new planting and tied theirharvested jute in a safe
place that would have limited at least some of theirlosses.
According to villagers, “if we knew, at least five days before that the flood is coming then we
could easily well prepare ourselves and flood can do nothing to us. We would less care about
the intensity of damages from the flood that we have been suffering now due to less time for
preparedness.”
Although the projected estimates cannot be confirmed with wider surveying at this time,
projected savings from proactive measures informed by early warning were quite high,
according to interviewees in Char Bozra.“If we knew flood alert before 5 days, we could have
saved 70 percent of our crop, vegetable, livestock, and other household assets that we lost. Only
crops that are not harvestable could have been damaged.”
Other research in this area also points to significant savings from early response systems. An
evaluation of the CDMP early warning system21
surveyed recipients of 5-day warnings from SMS
and VDM and found that the average savings per household in two union parishads was around
USD $472, thanks to actions taken in response to the warnings.22
Due to the limited identification
of usage, the variance between benefits of a 5 to an 8-day forecast and warning system cannot
be directly measured at this time.
Conclusionsaboutthe Product23
Although the JASON-2 product is fully functional, by the standards of the FFWC it is still in a
testing phase. For this reason, only limited conclusions can be drawn regarding several aspects
of the product. Some tentative conclusions are proposed here, but additional time is required
before any concrete long-term assessments can be rendered. Additionally, several aspects of the
products utility are conditional on internal policies and practices within the Bangladeshi
government, and until the product becomes fully active and those policies adjust accordingly,
no firm conclusions can be rendered on those issues.
Relevance
Based on the positive usage uptake of the CDMP, 5-day flood predictions, the relevance of the
JASON 2 8 day flood prediction is well-established. That said, the limited number of
measurement sites limits its geographic relevance to nine specific locations. For those nine
locations, the additional three days of data that are generated have a high degree of relevance,
21http://www.partnersvoorwater.nl/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Deltares-Mobile-Services-for-Early-Warning-in-
Bangladesh-Final-Report_web.pdf
22 There are approximately ninevillages arein a union parishad.
23
Conclusions about products are based on empirical findings described in the preceding sections for each case.
They are structured around five perspectives outline in the OECD/DAC evaluation criteria plus one additional factor
that focuses on implementation, i.e., what the intended users of a SERVIR science application product have to do to
apply/use the product, including whether users have the capacity needed to make the product work for them. For
information on the scope of the other five factors under which team conclusions based on findings about products
are clustered, see: http://www.oecd.org/development/evaluation/daccriteriaforevaluatingdevelopmentassistance.htm

given that those nine sites are regarded as highly flood vulnerable, and are subject to
hydrological factors that are difficult to precisely track without the assistance of upstream data
from waterways originating on the other side of the India border.
Implementation
Technically, because the product is still in its testing phase, the success and effectiveness of its
implementation cannot be fully assessed until the product concludes with all four years of
testing. At this time, the product’s first year successes are evident in the FFWC’s decision to
continue with the testing phase, but no additional conclusions can be drawn.
The existing provision of regular rotation of staff especially technical staff within the Bangladesh
government can be made difficult to establish between ICIMOD and the potential government
recipients best situated to use the JASON2 products. Implementation at the central level is
going on while the field level (especially district, Upazilla and union Parishad level) needed
efforts especially for dissemination of information to end-user level. The capacity of
implementing agency is factor to disseminate message. Under the JASON2 product there were
training conducted but were inadequate. The quality of data also issues for implementation.
Although the generation of JASON2 products within ICIMOD takes place in a timely fashion, the
JASON2 recipients may need further training to effectively apply the information contained
therein.
Effectiveness
From a technical standpoint, the JASON-2 product can be regarded as effective in its ability to
accurately predict stream flow levels at the nine designated points up to eight days in advance.
However, without successful dissemination of the product generated information, that
effectiveness is limited to products outputs, rather than product impacts. In this case, although
the information generated by the product is user-friendly and understandable, the product’s
effectiveness at mitigating the consequences of flood events in Bangladesh is conditional on the
successful dissemination of that information to the appropriateparties, a matter that is entirely
outside of the control of the SERVIR program. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the product
outputs is also limited by the flood readiness and flood response capabilities of a variety of
actors within Bangladesh’s disaster response community.
Use of geospatial data on floodforecasting in developing countries with limitedcapacity is an
ongoing challenge for the flood response community. Many of the institutions used in the
research were found to be quite optimistic about the potential of Earth observation satellite
data, and GIS, but institutionally we are still in the early stages of using these methods
effectively.
Efficiency
Product efficiency is evident in three aspects. First of all, the fact that the product is reliant on
data that is obtained at no cost reflects favorably on its cost effectiveness. Also, the real-time
nature of the JASON 2 data stream ensures that the outputs can be generated quickly and

consistently on a daily basis. Additionally, comparedto the human labor costs required to
monitor each of the 54gauge stations around the country, the product, involves far less actual
person-hours of work to generate each days analysis.
Impact
Thanks to the products reliability it is contributing to a growing culture of data-driven decision-
making within the Bangladesh disaster response community. Coming, as it does, on the heels of
the CDMP, disaster response capacity expansion that demonstrated the reliability of five day
advance warnings for flood management response, this product demonstrates the utility of
geospatial satellite data for that same purpose. Additionally, the product has helped to
strengthen the FFWC’s data confidence by providing alternate information streams with which
to compare and calibrate their other flood monitoring methods.
Sustainability
The Jason 2 products that are now available are being implemented in a limited service delivery
mode. Sustainability of JASON 2 can only be gained by means of institutionalization at different
levels, and although it is too soon to make final proclamations regarding sustainability of this
product, the data that drives it is likely to remain free for the anticipated future. Because
dissemination capacity in Bangladesh is being driven by the existing CDMP program, this
product benefits significantly from the way in which it piggybacks on top of that capacity.
Additionally, in light of the fact that the product accuracy improves the longer the product is in
place, its utility can be expected to not only persist, but to increase. Similarly, the longer the 8-
day flood forecasts are available, the better their recipients will be able to make use of them.

EXHIBIT A: DISSEMINATION OF FLOOD PREDICTIONS

EXHIBIT B: METHODOLOGY
Performance field evaluation/research around flood forecasting & warning system and
dissemination of related information to the end users in Bangladesh was being conducted by a
team of 3 Bangladeshi evaluators during the month of May-June 2015. The field works in
Bangladesh in adapting data collection instruments presented in the MSI+ dTS Evaluation
Design Proposal24
to the case study examined of SERVIR's JASON-2 Flood Forecasting System
and also contributed to the field trip report for this case study.”25
Summary of team members
timeline of events of the performance evaluation have been given in Annexure-B26
. The
evaluation team conducted 27 Key Informants Interviews and 6 FGD in Dhaka, Kurigram and
Gaibahdha Districts ( Details, Plese See Annex-C)
EXHIBIT C: INTERVIEWS CONDUCTED IN BANGLADESH
Interviewee Name Title Organization
Mohammad Abdul
Quyyum
Additional Secretary,
andNational Project
Director, Comprehensive
Disaster Managment
Programme
Ministry of Disaster Management
and Relief, GOB
M. Khalid Mahmood Joint Secretary, Director,
Department of Disaster
Management
Ministry of Disaster Management
and Relief, Mohakhali, Dhaka
Sardar Shah Newaz Director, Director, Irrigation
Management Division,
Institute of Water Modelling
(IWM);
Amirul Hossain, Executive Engineer Flood Forecasting and Warning
Centre(FFWC)
24E3 analyticsandevaluation project:design proposalservirperformanceevaluation,2014
25 Adopted fromSenior Researchers’ SOW andagreement deliveredto SR by dTS, May,2015
26 Copied from“ Fieldworkplan “drawn by Joshep

Arifuzzaman Bhuiyan Sub-Divisional Engineer Flood Forecasting and Warning
Centre(FFWC), BWDB
Miizan R Khan, PhD Director, External Affairs,
NSU & Profession,
Department of
Environmental Science and
Management (DESM)
Department of Environmental
Science and Management
(DESM), North South University,
Dhaka
Md. Jakariya, PhD Associate Professor & Chair,
Department of
Environmental Science and
Management (DESM)
Department of Environmental
(DESM), North South University
Md. Sabbir Hasan GIS Analyst, Department of Environmental
(DESM), North South University
Engr. Md. Abdus Sobhan Executive General
Secretary,
PoribeshBachaoAndolon(POBA)
Dr. Md. Rafiqual Islam
Mondol
Director General, Bangladesh Agricultural Research
Institute
 Dr. Engr. Md. Abdur
Razzaque Akanda
 Dr. Engr. Sujit Kumar
Biswas
 Dr. Khokan Kumer Sarker
 Chief Scientific Officer &
Head,
 Water Management
Specialist,
 Senior Scientific Officer,
 Scientific Officer
Irrigation and Water
Management Division,
Bangladesh Agricultural
Research Institute,
Joydevpur, Gazipur-1701,
Bangladesh
Mr. Bidyuth K. Mahalder, Deputy Country
Coordinator, and Senior
International Rice Research
Institute (IRRI)

Manager-operations and
administration, CSISA-BD
Dr. Mahabuba Nasreen Director, and Professor Institute of Disaster management
and Vulnerability Studies ,
University of Dhaka
Md. Shahidul Islam GIS Specialist USAID’s Agricultural Value Chains
(AVC) Project, Development
Alternative Inc.
Engr. Md. Waji Ullah Executive Director, CEGIS,
Dhaka Bangladesh
Center for Environmental and
Geographic information Services
Md. Shahidul Islam Senior, Remote Sensing
Specialist,Director, Remote
Sensing Division,
Center for Environmental and
Geographic information Services
Dr. Abdul Hamid Director (P&E) Krishi Gobeshona Foundation
(KGF)
Md. Nazmul Hassan Principal Scientific Officer
(Head of Central Laboratory)
Soil Resources Development
Institute, Ministry of Agriculture
Md. Abu Syed Ph.D Fellow Bangladesh Center for Advanced
Studies
Md. Rafiqul Islam, Ph. D Professor, Department of
Agronomy
BSMRAU,
Hasan Md. Abdullah Assistant Professor,
Department of Agronomy,
BSMRAU,
Mr. Lal Executive Director, Solidarity
5 NGO Representatives Working areas Kurigram
“JIbika”
Solidarity, SKS, BDSC, & KUUS
Abdul Mottalib Mollah District Relief and
Rehabilitation Officer,
DC Office, Kurigram

Engn. Mohammad Mijanur
Rahman
Sub-Divisional Engineer, Water Development Board
FGD With Women groups
in Bojra village in Kurigram
Village Bojra, Union Bojra,
Upazila, Unipur, Kurigram
Kowsar Parven District Women Affair officer,
Kurigram, Bangladesh
Engr. Mohammad Abdul
Awwal Miah
Executive Engineer,
Gaibandha O & M Division
Bangladesh Water Development
Board (BWDB),
Mr. Habibur Rahman District Relief and Rehabilitation
Officer
6 participants Uria Village
Rasel Ahmed Liton Chief Executive SKS Foundation
7 participants Fulchari, Gaibandha
Prof. Dr. Sujit Kumar Bala Institute of Water and Flood
Management, BUET
Engr. Saiful Alam Director(tech) Water ResourcesPlanning
Organization(WRPO),Ministryof
Water Resources
www.warpo.gov.bd
Syed Matiur Ahsan
Senior Manager, DRR &CCA,House CWN(A)35,
Road # 43, Gulshan-2, Dhaka
1212 Bangladesh
Khurshis Alam Assistant Country
Representative
UNDP Bangladesh , IDB, Bhaban,
Agargaon, Dhaka

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