Contributing to indicator-based management of transboundary aquatic systems


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  • Prior to 2007,The GEF’s Technical Advisory Group for strategy development in IW focal area identified the need for a periodic global transboundary waters assessment programme in early 2007.
  • Methods for indicator-based assessment of transboundary aquifers, lakes, river basins, large marine ecosystems and for the thematic assessment of the open ocean, as well as the partnerships for methods development and assessment implementation were produced during the TWAP Medium Size Project from 2009- 2010.
  • A central theme of TWAP is the vulnerability of ecosystems and human communities to natural and anthropogenic stressors, and impairment of ecosystem services and consequences for humans. Conceptual framework merges the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, indicator science, focus on ecosystem services, and cumulative impact modeling, all with a strong focus on governance and socio-economics
  • The interaction between humans and natural ecosystems is captured in a conceptual framework that is based on the idea of 'causal chains'. The framework is centred on the vulnerability of both natural systems to external pressures and consequences for the sustainable production of ecosystem services, and of humans to ecological changes. In brief, human activities have associated stressors that in turn impact natural systems and this in turn affects the delivery (and value) of ecosystem services to people (starting in box 1 below and going clockwise).
  • Indicators selected based on importance of issues in LMEs and availability of global datasets for comparative assessment
  • Examples of indicator results. Presented as time series (updating of existing time series) and maps.
  • This index may be a reference in determining spatial patterns of economic activity at subnational scales globally for 2010. LME scale NLDI determined by weighting the country NLDI with the area contribution of the coastal zone of each country surrounding the LME
  • OO component along with LMEs is also executed by the IOC
  • Exclusive Economic Zones (top) and LMEs (below). About 50 per cent of the surface of the Earth is areas beyond national jurisdiction. For purposes of TWAP- this is open ocean
  • Open Ocean uses the same conceptual framework as the LMEs component- showing interaction between the natural and human systems. But different approach- not a comparative assessment, focus on themes…..2-pronged approach- indicators/mapping and expert assessment
  • 4 biophysical themes, plus socio-economics and governance (cross-cutting)
  • Reefs at risk (WRI)
  • DegreeHeatingMonth, for IPCC scenario RCP 8.5 (business as usual), computed for Lauretta Burke (CoralReefs): youseehere the projection of level-2 stress (temperature 2 degreesabove the referencetemperature, accumulated on 4 months), frequency: how manyyears show thisevent in the decade. The more, the worse. CMIP5 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 - provide projections of future climate change on two time scales, near term (out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and beyond (among others)
  • GEOWOW- Global Earth Observation System of Systems Interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water
  • Assessment products similar to LMEs component
  • Contributing to indicator-based management of transboundary aquatic systems

    1. 1. GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme: Contributing to Indicator-Based Management of Transboundary Aquatic Systems Liana Talaue McManus
    2. 2. GEF International Waters (IW) Focal Area: Before 2007
    3. 3. TWAP Medium-Sized Project Proposal (2007) A Periodic Global Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme:
    4. 4. TWAP Medium-Sized Project (2009-10)
    5. 5. TWAP Medium-Sized Project (2009-10) Correspondence Groups (CG) for Crosscutting Issues Open Ocean Aquifers SOCIOECONOMICS CG  Common input data  Objective scaling  Classification of vulnerable human populations Governance CG  Assessing existence of governance architecture  Assessing functionality of governance architecture among linked systems Data & IM CG LMEs Lakes Rivers  Common data portal  Data access policies  Metadata standards  Linking five WG databases  Web apps
    6. 6. TWAP Full Sized Project (2013-15): Global Indicator-Based Assessment  Long-term goal: Promote financing of indicator (results) based management and development of transboundary water systems  Global environment objective: (1) Apply agreed assessment methods ; (2) Formalize partnerships & institutional arrangements for periodically conducting global assessments  Project objective: (1) Conduct first global assessment to assist GEF and other donors to improve the setting of funding priorities; (2) Formalize partnerships with key institutions aimed at incorporating transboundary considerations into regular assessment programs, & resulting in periodic assessments of transboundary water systems
    7. 7. Brief history and project goals Comparative within a water system Spatial coverage, 2010, 2030, 2050 166 aquifers 43 groundwater systems in SIDS 200 lakes/ reservoirs 276 river basins 66 LMEs, of which 55 are transboundary Global Open Ocean Water demand by economic sector GDP Fisheries GDP Tourism Access to water Access to sanitation Deaths due to climate related natural disasters Vulnerability to sea level rise Biophysical indicators Socioeconomic Indicators (e.g.) Governance architecture/ arrangement (e.g.) Data & Information Management For Water Quantity For Water Distribution For Habitat Destruction (next slide) For Fisheries For Biodiversity
    8. 8. Global Indicator-based Transboundary Waters Assessment Program Indicator-Based Assessment Data & Product Delivery System Water system indicator data download Aquifers database LME & Open Ocean database Governance indicators Web app SocioEconomic indicators Lakes Biophysical indicators TWAP Website database Water system infosheet Rivers database User Feedback & Learning Refine Assessment Methods & Targets
    9. 9. Expected Results from TWAP  Five independent assessments  Consideration of linkages between the systems and cross-cutting elements (socioeconomic and governance)  Institutional partnerships to sustain regular indicator (results)-based global assessments and monitoring of transboundary water systems
    10. 10. Contact Information Project Website: TWAP Project Coordination Unit: Liana Talaue McManus, Kaisa Uusimaa, Joana Akrofi, Hartwig Kremer Cross-cutting component coordinators: Robin Mahon (Governance), Jaap van Woerden (Data & Information Management), Liana McManus (Socioeconomics) Mailing address: Division of Early Warning & Assessment (DEWA) United Nations Environment Programme P.O. Box 30552-00100 Nairobi, Kenya
    11. 11. UNESCO-IHP International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO Holger Treidel © Oxfam East Africa Aquifers
    12. 12. Assessment of Transboundary Aquifers and SIDS l Hydrogeological Aspects l l l l l l Delineation and description Static data and time-variable Classification, diagnostic analysis and zoning Data harmonisation and information management Environmental issues Socio-economic aspects Geological Cross Section-6 SE NW (m ASL) Section-1 9 2376 1400 8 2641 1300 Section-2 Hoachanas 396 6646 514 Sw J-9( K 1288 la) tzivil Mar 658 105 A-2 DW M art 2 3227 110 B 1200 Section-3 Stampriet r) odde Gochas Auob R. J-5( 1310 328 392 995) (7 5-N JO 528 R P.E. 1100 l l Institutional settings Legal framework Aquifers Tweeriver Auob R. as ch Goa 452 K B Section-4 P-29 AC 555 P-30 AC -1 GR A ) er eeriv A J-8( R 1000 2931 6 1275 Tw K R N P.E. R M K A R A 900 Do R K B Do R A M N P.E. 800 700 Kalahari Beds Kalkland Basalt Karoo Dolerite Rietmond Member Auob Member Mukorob Member Nossob Member Pre-Ecca Group M A N P.E. M N P.E. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 (Km)
    13. 13. Indicators 1. Time-independent parameters  description/characterization of TBAs 2. Time-dependant parameters 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Defining or constraining the value of aquifers and their potential functions Role and importance of groundwater for humans & environment Changes in groundwater state Drivers of change and pressures Enabling environment for TBA/SIDS resource 10 indicators for TWAP management level 1 assessment Implementation of groundwater resources 20 Indicators for level 1 management measures in-depth assessment Aquifers
    14. 14. Data collection - Questionnaires Aquifers
    15. 15. Data base and Information Management System Geo-referenced data: •Core Indicators •Main parameters •Additional parameters •Documents •Images •Predictions One aggregated value per TBA or SIDS Aquifers Water GAP •Georeferenced Images
    16. 16. Project Outputs • Information briefs per Transboundary Aquifer and SIDS (available through IMS) • Data set of parameters and indicators of major world TBAs and SIDS • Interactive Information Management System New knowledge will be generated in the framework of TWAP TBAs Aquifers
    17. 17. Partners 1. Core Group 2. Regional Coordinators and Expert Networks 3. Key providers of expertise and data Aquifers
    18. 18. ILEC International Lake Environment Committee Walter Rast Lake & Reservoir Basins
    19. 19. Transboundary Lake & Reservoir Basins • International Lake Environment Committee (ILEC), in cooperation with Meadows Center for Water and Environment, Texas State Univ. (USA) and Research Center for Sustainability and Environment , Shiga Univ. (Japan); ILEC Scientific Committee (regional representation); • 206 transboundary lakes/reservoirs:  GEF-eligible lakes = 159  Non-GEF-eligible lakes = 47
    20. 20. Partners & Scientific Committee • National Hydrologic Research Institute (Malaysia) • Corazón de la Tierra (Mexico) • Ritsumeikan University (Japan) • Indian Association of Aquatic Biologists (India) • Meadows Center for Water and the Environment (USA) • East Africa Great Lakes Observatory (Kenya) • University of Guanajuato (Mexico) • International Environmental Management Services (USA) • ILEC Scientific Committee (Regional/Global)
    21. 21. Global Distribution 206 Transboundary Lakes • Asia/Pacific region : 51 • Europe/Russia border: 71 • Africa: 33 • South/Central America: 31 • North America (USA/Canada): 20 • ‘Cluster’ Lakes:  Himalayan Mountain lakes;  East African Rift Valley lakes;  Western Africa coastal lakes;  Mediterranean coastal lakes;  Andean Mountain lakes.
    22. 22. Transboundary Lake Basins • Little organized information on lake drainage basins; • Global-scale satellite/remote sensing data (NASA; USGS) + GIS-based spatial analysis + DEM  Transboundary Lake Basin Delineations
    23. 23. Linked Transboundary Water Systems
    24. 24. Indicators/Criteria Primary Forcing/Stress Criteria • • • • Water stress Land use/alteration Nutrient loading Others Configurational Criteria • Lake area; Lenticity (lake area:basin area); Hydrological position & linkages Characterizational Criteria • Population number, density & relative location; Erosion potential; Aridity index; Biodiversity hotspots Governance Criteria • Policies; Institutions; Stakeholder participation; Information & communication; Finances
    25. 25. ILBM & ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) AHP Preparatory Flowchart Data Preparation Process Assessment Criteria Basic Data Configurational Features Lake Basin Descriptor Basin Descriptor Basin Descriptor Lake/Riv er Combine d AHP Analysis Process Primary (Stress) Prim. Crite. Secondary (Impairment ) Criteria Combined Ecosystem Services River Group Final Indicators Threats Category Curre nt Major Resou Sec. Crite. Three Multicriteria Assessment River Group Indicator Output GEF Decision Support Process AHP Secenario Scenario Driver PrimarySecondary Driven Threat Catego ry Driven ScenarioDriver By Subcontinents By Climatic Zones By Lake Size By Thematic Features By Lake Clusters By TLB-NTLB collab. By Linkages etc. GEF Program Affiliations Management Scope and Challenges Scenio Coupling Budetary Scenarios Others DecisionSupport Process Tertiary (Improvemen t) Criteria Illustrative display of assessment matrix for
    26. 26. Expert Group Meetings • Inception Meeting (Japan; May 2013) • Southeast Asia (Malaysia; July 2013) • Europe/Mediterranean (Italy; September 2013) • Mexico/Central America (Mexico; December 2013) • South America (Brazil; December 2013) • Southcentral Asia (India; January 2014) • Africa (Kenya/West Africa; January 2014) Objectives Refine assessment process; quality of lake data/info; data gaps; other data sources; indicators/criteria (regional context); ‘ground truth’ initial conclusions; questionnaire
    27. 27. Anticipated Outputs • Final Assessment report of lakes, including cluster lakes, ranked within 3-5 major groupings; • Transboundary lake atlas, identifying locations, extent & characteristics of transboundary lakes and their basins; • Use of AHP for more detailed multicriteria analysis of transboundary lake basins; • Concept of ‘prioritization’ as applied to transboundary water systems; • Compiled data bases used to develop all outputs (accessible electronic media
    28. 28. UNEP-DHI Centre for Water and Environment Peter Koefoed Bjørnsen River Basins
    29. 29. Indicators Water Quantity Water Quality Ecosystems Goverance Socioeconomics 1. Environmental Water Stress 4. Nutrient Pollution 6. Biodiversity and Habitat Loss 9. Governance Architecture 12. Economic Dependence 2. Human Water Stress 5. Urban Water Pollution 7. Ecosystem Degradation 10. Institutional Resilience 13. Societal Wellbeing 8. Fish Threat 11. Enabling Environment 14. Vulnerability 3. Agricultural Water Stress Projected transboundary stress 2030 / 2050 Water Systems Interlinkages Environmental Water Stress Delta Vulnerability Index Human Water Stress Lake Influence Index Nutrient Pollution Population Density Institutional Resilience River Basins
    30. 30. Partners River Basins
    31. 31. Agricultural water stress Human water stress Preliminary indicator maps River Basins
    32. 32. Basin Country Units River Basins
    33. 33. Agricultural Water Stress River Basins
    34. 34. Water Governance River Basins
    35. 35. Products Assessment Report Global Maps Factsheets Data Portal River Basins
    36. 36. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO J. Barbiere Large Marine Ecosystems
    37. 37. Large Marine Ecosystems Large Marine Ecosystems
    38. 38. LMES ASSESSMENT – MAIN FEATURES  Conceptual framework (next slide) showing link between human and natural systems; focus on vulnerability of human populations to changes in ecosystem services  Themes (productivity, fisheries, pollution, ecosystem health, socio-economics, governance)  Comparative assessment across all 66 LMEs and Pacific Warm Pool – clustering of LMEs according to their environmental state  Level 2 assessment in Bay of Bengal LME through BoB LME project  Global datasets (and where available, regional) are being used. Gridded data (30’ x 30’) - can be aggregated at any scale. Large Marine Ecosystems
    40. 40. LME INDICATORS Productivity Fisheries Pollution & Ecosystem health Socio-economics Governance •Chlorophyl a •Annual landings •Nutrients (N, P, Si) •% GDP fisheries •Primary productivity •Catch value •Coastal Eutrophication Potential •% GDP international tourism •Governance architecture in transboundary LMEs •Marine trophic index/FIB index •POPs in plastic pellets •Stock status •Plastic debris density •Population within 10 m coastal elevation •Catch from bottom impacting gear •Change in MPA coverage •Human Development Index •Reefs at Risk Index •Deaths caused by climate related natural disasters •Sea surface temperature •Fishing effort •Mangrove extent • Catch potential projections under global warming •Cumulative human impacts
    41. 41. LMEs PARTNERSHIP Potential users/data providers THEMATIC Univ. Rhode Is Univ. Dal CERMES/UWI CORE IOC/ UNESCO Executing Agency Coordination NOAA CMAP UNEP GESAMP UNEPWCMC IGBP UBC TUAT Large Marine Ecosystems Ind. Experts
    42. 42. FRAMING QUESTIONS Key questions that the LMEs assessment will examine include:  What are the current trends in LME status in each thematic area?  Which LMEs are most heavily degraded and which ecosystem services are at most risk?  What is the projected status to years 2030/2050 (selected indicators)?  Where is human dependency greatest on LME ecosystem services?  Where are humans most vulnerable to changes in LME condition?  What is the status of the governance architecture in LMEs and implications for management? What are the main emerging issues? Large Marine Ecosystems
    43. 43. ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS Large Marine Ecosystems
    44. 44. Examples: Fish stock status Sea Around Us Project Large Marine Ecosystems
    45. 45. Cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystems Halpern et al 2008 Large Marine Ecosystems
    46. 46. Night light development index (L. McManus) Large Marine Ecosystems
    47. 47. See TWAP LMEs brochure for further details Large Marine Ecosystems
    48. 48. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO S. Heileman © ESA Open Ocean
    49. 49. The Open Ocean: a transboundary space  Earth is the ocean planet: 70 % surface covered by oceans, and about 50 % covered by ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction.  International waters – 73% of open ocean is ‘high seas’ beyond the EEZs – 52% of total surface of the Earth Open Ocean
    50. 50. Assessment approach Global ocean – local vulnerability  Focus on themes where a global commons / global environmental issues related to the oceans exist  Through indicators/mapping, identify local impact to ecosystem vulnerability or human vulnerability, with future projections where possible  Assess the relevant thematic governance arrangements: pointing to where action is needed  Scientific assessment of peer-reviewed literature Necessary for long-timescale, high-uncertainty, potentially high-impact environmental problems Open Ocean
    51. 51. Assessment themes/indicators  Climate change, variability and impacts (e.g. impact of sea level rise on local coastal populations)  Ecosystems, habitats and biodiversity (e.g. impact of ocean acidification on polar and tropical marine ecosystems)  Fisheries, impact and sustainability (e.g. fish stock status)  Pollution and contaminants (e.g. plastic density)  Socio-economics: Human dependency and vulnerability  Governance: architecture linking global with other scales, sciencepolicy interface Open Ocean
    52. 52. An Example: Climate and ocean ecosystems corals • • Corals at risk from both local stressors (over-/destructive fishing, coastal development, watershed and marine-based pollution) and climate change and variability (temperature stress, ocean acidification, fast sea level rise) Local stressors: blue-low, yellow-medium, reds-high
    53. 53. Bleaching Threat to Corals in Future (2030, 2040, 2050) Open Ocean Heat stress: frequency of level-2 stress for coral  Degree Heating Month projections (CMIP5)
    54. 54. Partnership Open Ocean
    55. 55. ASSESSMENT PRODUCTS Large Marine Ecosystems
    56. 56. Thank you