Baltics are safe, a Ruskij Korabl - nx
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The document discusses the economic and security situation in the Baltic states following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It notes that while the actual security situation has improved due to increased NATO presence and unity, the perceived security situation has worsened. Economically, some deals and assets have become available at bargain prices due to panic, though lending banks remain steady overall. The key takeaways are that the focus is on Ukrainian victory, the validity of Baltic warnings about Russia have been proven, and governments need to align perceived security with the reality of improved actual security through strategic communication.
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Baltics are safe, a Ruskij Korabl - nx
- 1. Русский военный корабль иди нахуй
- 2. Warsaw pact “1st strategic echelon” forces, mid-late 1980s
- 3. 1. Warsaw pact troops were 100 km from the Frankfurt stock exchange building 2. Was BRD a failed economy with no M&A deals and deep valuation discounts to US peers? No – it was one of the richest and most dynamic economies in the world
- 4. -4.31% 3.81% -0.92% -7.78% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 2/23/2022 2/24/2022 2/25/2022 2/28/2022 3/1/2022 3/2/2022 DAX S&P500 FTSE100 OMXBBGI Nothing to see here, move along (Baltic stocks green +2-5% at pixel time)
- 5. Anecdotal observations from this week in Baltic deals market • Some scattered kneejerk panic in deals, but opportunism is the prevailing mood – bargain time? • Assets never ever to be sold suddenly tentatively available? • Lending banks steady, some concerns about consumer discretionary sector, but (I suspect) due to macro, not security concerns. Overall, business as usual, focus on cybersecurity and supporting Ukraine • Some weird situations in property markets (suddenly quotes of up to 9% yield, but no transactions)
- 6. Key takeaways • All focus on Ukrainian victory. Разом до перемоги! • Dear collective West, we f***ing told you so. Yours truly, Baltic states • IMHO Baltic actual security situation now better than last Wednesday night: • Russia turns out EXACTLY like we always said it actually is. Doh. • Germany suddenly a nation of grownups (vielen dank, Olaf) • Total (ex-Hungary) NATO unity, extra boots on the ground • Each day personnel of the (supposed) cream of Russian forces and modern weaponry is turned into mincemeat and scrap metal in Ukraine • HOWEVER - Baltic perceived security situation is worse – this may create opportunities as perceptions converge with reality… • …but this gap must disappear faster – government should focus here with economic StratCom, for all our sakes