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Balance SheetPolly's Pet ProductsBalance Sheet as of December
31, 2018ASSETSCURRENT ASSETSCashAccounts
receivable50,000Other assets25,000Total current assetsLONG
TERM ASSETSFixed Assets75,000TOTAL
ASSETSLIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS'
EQUITYCURRENT LIABILITIESAccounts
payable75,000Accrued expensesIncome tax
payable5,000Current portion of notes payable12,000Deferred
income taxes1,500Total current liabilities123,500LONG TERM
LIABILITIESNotes payable (long term)TOTAL
LIABILITIES161,500STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITYCommon
stock5,000Additional paid-in capital15,000Retained
EarningsTotal stockholders' equityTOTAL LIABILITIES AND
STOCKHOLDERS EQUITY
Diamond Gem Cleaning and Maintenance Service
Balance Sheet
Year Ended December 31, 20XX
Income StatementPolly's Pet ProductsIncome Statement as of
December 31, 2018Revenues650,000Operating CostsGross
Profit205,000General and Administrative
Expenses75,000Operating IncomeOther Expense60,000Income
Before Provision for Income TaxesProvision for Income
Taxes5,000Net IncomeRetained Earnings, Beginning
Balance103,500Net IncomeRetained Earnings, Ending Balance
Diamond Gem Cleaning and Maintenance Service
&"-,Bold"Statement of Income and Retained Earnings
Year Ended December 31, 20XX
Stmt of Cash FlowsPolly's Pet ProductsStatement of Cash Flows
as of December 31, 2018Cash Flows from Operating
ActivitiesCash received from customers600,000Cash paid out to
suppliers and employeesInterest paid(5,000)Taxes
paid(10,000)Net cash provided by operating
activities185,000Cash Flows from Investing ActivitiesPurchase
of fixed assets(25,000)Net cash used in investing
activities(25,000)Cash Flows from Financing ActivitiesNew
loans50,000Repayments on loans(45,000)Issuance of common
shares of stock5,000Net cash provided by financing
activitiesNet change in CashCash balance, beginning of
year30,000Cash balance, end of year
Master Schedule Creation
Purpose:
The purpose of this assignment is to illustrate your
understanding of how the master schedule is created and how it
is used to create an MRP schedule.
Using the scenario below
Create a 12-month master schedule.
Create a MRP schedule that supports the master schedule.
Jones Company now needs to develop a master schedule and an
MRP schedule based on the customer demand forecast you
developed for the X52 power supply back in Assignment 1.
They’ve asked for your assistance. Use this forecast: JAN
THROUGH APRIL 2,700 per month; MAY THROUGH
AUGUST 3,000 per month; SEPTEMBER THROUGH
DECEMBER 3,300 per month. Lot sizes for X52 are 3,000 and
to produce one X52, you need two units of 23A, one unit of
46B, and three units of 29C. You currently have 6,000 units of
23A in stock, 4,000 of 46B and 9,000 of 29C. Lead time to buy
each of these three components is one month.
Required Elements of the 12- Month Master Schedule:
Use a spreadsheet or a template you develop to create a 12
month master schedule. Make sure to include all requirements
for each month.
Explain in detail, using the data created by you and the course
material, how you arrived at the schedule entries. Be sure to
explain the logic applied to arrive at the conclusions drawn and
support your logic with assigned course readings and videos.
Required Formatting of MRP Schedule:
Use the template format to create a MRP schedule. Make sure to
complete all requirements for each month.
Explain in detail, using the data created by you and the course
material, how you arrived at the schedule entries. Be sure to
explain the logic applied to arrive at the conclusions drawn and
support your logic with assigned course readings and videos.
Additional Requirements:
The explanation of each part of the assignment must be doubled
spaced and should be at least two pages in length.
Third person writing is required. Third person means that there
are no words such as “I, me, my, we, or us” (first person
writing), nor is there use of “you or your” (second person
writing). If uncertain how to write in the third person, view this
link:
http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/first-
second-and-third-person ;
Contractions are not used in business writing, so you are
expected NOT to use contractions in writing this assignment;
Use APA formatting for in-text citations and reference page.
You are expected to paraphrase and not use quotes. Deductions
will be taken when quotes are used and found to be
unnecessary;
The expectation is that you provide a robust use of the course
resources. No books or outside references can be used. When
using a source document, the expectation is that the information
is cited and referenced with a page or paragraph number;
Rubric Name: Master Schedule
Criteria
Excellent
Good
Developing
Needs Improvement
Failure
Creation of 12 month master schedule
5 points
Comments reflect a highly accomplished level of analysis,
synthesis, evaluation and logical reasoning of the case material
and case study facts resulting in an accurate, thorough, and
soundly reasoned schedule.
(4.5-5.0
4.25 points
Comments reflect a thorough level of analysis, synthesis,
evaluation and reasoning of the case material and case study
facts resulting in accurately reasoned conclusions but may 1-2
areas which were underdeveloped.
( 4.0 - 4.49)
3.75 points
Comments reflect a satisfactory level of analysis, synthesis,
evaluation and reasoning of the case material and case study
facts resulting in mostly correct conclusions and thereby
showing 3-4 areas of inaccuracy or underdeveloped schedule
entries.
(3.5-3.99)
3.25 points
An attempt was made but the comments reflect an unsatisfactory
level of analysis, synthesis, evaluation and reasoning of the
case material and case study facts, resulting in conclusions that
are thereby showing 5 or areas of inaccuracy or underdeveloped
schedule entries.
(3.0-3.49)
0 points
No attempt was made at the schedule or the inaccuracies or
schedule entries reflect an unsatisfactory level of analysis,
synthesis, evaluation and reasoning of the case material and
case study facts, resulting in failure to draw little to no
conclusions.
(0-2.99)
Detailed explanation as to how the schedule entries were
concluded
5 points
Presents exceptionally well-supported conclusions with
evidence from the readings/case facts; application of the ideas
was insightful and accurate
(4.5-5.0)
4.25 points
Presents thorough well-supported conclusions with evidence
from the readings/case facts; application of the ideas was good
but needed more detail in 1-2 entry conclusions.
(4.0-4.49)
3.75 points
Presents satisfactory arguments mostly supported conclusions
with evidence from the readings/case facts; application of the
ideas was good but needed more detail in 3-4 entry conclusions.
(3.5-3.99)
.25 points
Arguments are frequently illogical and unsubstantiated; Limited
use of facts in case study and essential information presented in
course readings. More than 5 entries were without detail.
(3.0-3.49)
0 points
No or minimal attempt was made to explain the schedule
attempted or arguments lack meaningful explanation or support
of ideas. Does not provide facts presented in case study.
(0-2.99)
Attention to Instructions
2 points
Demonstrates exceptional understanding of requirements
responding completely to each aspect of assignment including
minor aspects of the assignment such as using third person
writing, required use of course readings, and assignment format.
(1.8-2.0)
1.7 points
Demonstrates excellent understanding of requirements; missed
one minor aspect of assignment.
(1.6-1.79)
1.5 points
Demonstrates satisfactory understanding of requirements;
missed a key element or two minor aspects of assignment.
(1.4-1.59)
1.3 points
Fails to show a firm understanding of requirements; missed two
key elements or several minor aspects of assignment.
(1.2-1.39)
0 points
Fails to demonstrate understanding of assignment requirements.
(0-1.19)
Writing Mechanics
2 points
Strictly adheres to standard usage rules of written English,
including but not limited to capitalization, punctuation, run-on
sentences, missing or extra words, stylistic errors, spelling and
grammatical errors. No errors found. No contractions or jargon
used.
(1.8- 2.0)
1.7 points
Excellently adheres to standard usage of mechanics:
conventions of written English, including capitalization,
punctuation, and spelling. One to three errors found.
(1.6- 1.79)
1.5 points
Satisfactorily adheres to standard usage rules of mechanics:
conventions of English, including capitalization, punctuation,
and spelling. Four to 10 errors found.
(1.4- 1.59)
1.3 points
Minimally adheres to standard usage rules of mechanics:
conventions of written English, including capitalization,
punctuation, and spelling. More than 10 errors found.
(1.2-1.39)
0 points
Does not adhere to standard usage rules of mechanics:
conventions of written English largely incomprehensible; or
errors are too plentiful to count.
(0-1.19)
Adherence to APA style (6th ed.)
1 point
No APA style or usage errors; Proper citation of source material
is used throughout paper; Reference titles follow APA with only
the first word, the first word after a colon and proper nouns
capitalized.
(0.90-1.0)
0.85 points
Attempts in-text citations and reference list but one or two APA
style errors noted or fails to use APA citations when appropriate
1-2 times.
(0.80-0.89)
0.75 points
Attempts in-text citations and reference lists; APA style errors
are noted throughout document; Fails to use APA citations when
appropriate 3 times in document.
(0.70-0.79)
0.65 points
Attempts in-text citations and reference lists; Fails to use APA
citation when appropriate 4-5 times; or presents only 1-2 in-text
citations and reference list in a paper that requires APA
citations throughout the document.
(0.60-0.69)
0 points
No attempt at APA style; or attempts either in-text citations or
reference list but omits the other.
(0-0.59)
Resource Links: You must site only these resources.
http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/mrp.html
https://www.smartsheet.com/guide-to-material-requirements-
planning
http://www.columbia.edu/~gmg2/4000/pdf/lect_06.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEvHwvrkwbU
https://www.slideshare.net/RajuPegada/capacity-requirement-
planning-rough-cut-capacity-planning
http://www.apicsforum.com/wiki/rough-cut_capacity_planning
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFaA6mv1rvc
http://www.statsoft.com/Textbook/Demand-Forecasting
https://hbr.org/1988/07/four-steps-to-forecast-total-market-
demand
https://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/economic-forecasting/
http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/linreg.htm
https://learn.umuc.edu/content/enforced/274494-001038-01-
2185-OL2-
6980/BMGT%20372%20UKY%20Forecast%20Example%202.pp
t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw3pmfsBjpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaxpCw6lCe4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWvSnJ6rbsc
http://www.lancer.com.tw/attachments/367_ErpBook(6).pdf
http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/masprod.html
https://www.wiley.com/legacy/college/reid/0470325046/supp_c
h/suppd.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6sI1gp1X24
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ0NDUutXSc&t=33s
Memo for Customer Qualitative Forecast
MEMO
To: Amanda Jones, Chief Executive Officer
From:
Date: 31 October 2019
Subject: Customer Qualitative Forecast.
Ms. Amanda Jones,
This memo is written to summarize the results of the forecasting
activities done on the basis of the given data for the Jones
Company. The explanation and the summary of the forecast is
supported by an excel worksheet that is attached with the report
which includes all the calculations of the forecasting activities.
In this memo, the calculation and the logics are explained in a
short summary.
As five years demand data was available the next two years
forecast was calculated on the basis of that data using a
qualitative approach. The calculations were done using some
assumptions. These assumptions are the following:
It is assumed that the average of the opinions of the
experts is equal to the results that are achieved from the
quantitative forecasting and hence the outcome is considered as
the overall forecasting results. In actual Executive Opinions
Qualitative-Forecasting, the opinions of the experts are taken
and then average is calculated but in this case the experts
opinion is not available hence the average opinion is assumed as
it matches the results and modification of the results from the
quantitative results of the forecasting.
The Linear regression forecast for the next 24 month is given in
the second sheet in the attached excel file. The calculations
were done on the basis of the following formula.
.
Forecasted demand = a + bx.
Forecasting error was calculated using the following formula:
Forecasting error = Actual demand – Forecasted demand
RSFE = Initial forecast error + precedence forecast error
MAD was calculated using the following formula:
MAD =
Tracking signals was calculated on the basis of the following
formula:
The calculations of the signal tracking show that the value of
the signal tracking is between ± 3.75 and it the control limit.
The result shows that the forecasting was done properly and is
accurate. There is no indication that the forecasting is done on
some biased assumptions. As the given accepted forecasting is
1.5, which is in the control limit of the results of signal tracking
so there is no need to recalculate or update the demand forecast
for the X52.
1
24-Month qualitative
forecastYearDemand11292521726332251242876553164663730
5.4742199.8
Regression modelSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression
StatisticsMultiple R0.70421R Square0.49592Adjusted R
Square0.36990Standard
Error216.90463Observations6ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance
FRegression1185142.85714185142.857143.935220.11829Residu
al4188190.4761947047.61905Total5373333.33333CoefficientsS
tandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower
95.0%Upper
95.0%Intercept2473.33333201.9272212.248640.000261912.693
483033.973181912.693483033.97318months102.8571451.85012
1.983740.11829-41.10188246.81617-
41.10188246.81617RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted
actual demandResiduals12576.19048-
76.1904822679.0476220.9523832781.90476218.0952442884.76
190-284.7619052987.61905212.3809563090.47619-90.47619
months Line Fit Plot
actual demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 2500 2700 3000
2600 3200 3000 Predicted actual demand 1 2 3 4
5 6 2576.1904761904761 2679.0476190476193
2781.9047619047619 2884.761904761905
2987.6190476190477 3090.4761904761908
months
actual demand
Regression forecastMonthsActual demandForecast
demandActual forecastForecast
errorRSFECumulativeMADSignal
tracking1250020002576.19010500500500500.0001.0002270028
002679.04720-100400600300.0001.3333300032002781.90430-
200200800266.6670.7504260028002884.76140-
20001000250.0000.0005320035002987.61850-300-
3001300260.000-1.1546300033003090.47560-300-
6001600266.667-
2.25073193.3327083296.1898093399.04690103501.9040011360
4.76110123707.61820133810.47530143913.33240154016.18950
164119.04660174221.90370184324.76080194427.61790204530.
47500214633.33210224736.18920234839.04630244941.90340

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Balance SheetPollys Pet ProductsBalance Sheet as of December 31, .docx

  • 1. Balance SheetPolly's Pet ProductsBalance Sheet as of December 31, 2018ASSETSCURRENT ASSETSCashAccounts receivable50,000Other assets25,000Total current assetsLONG TERM ASSETSFixed Assets75,000TOTAL ASSETSLIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITYCURRENT LIABILITIESAccounts payable75,000Accrued expensesIncome tax payable5,000Current portion of notes payable12,000Deferred income taxes1,500Total current liabilities123,500LONG TERM LIABILITIESNotes payable (long term)TOTAL LIABILITIES161,500STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITYCommon stock5,000Additional paid-in capital15,000Retained EarningsTotal stockholders' equityTOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS EQUITY Diamond Gem Cleaning and Maintenance Service Balance Sheet Year Ended December 31, 20XX Income StatementPolly's Pet ProductsIncome Statement as of December 31, 2018Revenues650,000Operating CostsGross Profit205,000General and Administrative Expenses75,000Operating IncomeOther Expense60,000Income Before Provision for Income TaxesProvision for Income Taxes5,000Net IncomeRetained Earnings, Beginning Balance103,500Net IncomeRetained Earnings, Ending Balance Diamond Gem Cleaning and Maintenance Service &"-,Bold"Statement of Income and Retained Earnings Year Ended December 31, 20XX Stmt of Cash FlowsPolly's Pet ProductsStatement of Cash Flows as of December 31, 2018Cash Flows from Operating ActivitiesCash received from customers600,000Cash paid out to suppliers and employeesInterest paid(5,000)Taxes paid(10,000)Net cash provided by operating
  • 2. activities185,000Cash Flows from Investing ActivitiesPurchase of fixed assets(25,000)Net cash used in investing activities(25,000)Cash Flows from Financing ActivitiesNew loans50,000Repayments on loans(45,000)Issuance of common shares of stock5,000Net cash provided by financing activitiesNet change in CashCash balance, beginning of year30,000Cash balance, end of year Master Schedule Creation Purpose: The purpose of this assignment is to illustrate your understanding of how the master schedule is created and how it is used to create an MRP schedule. Using the scenario below Create a 12-month master schedule. Create a MRP schedule that supports the master schedule. Jones Company now needs to develop a master schedule and an MRP schedule based on the customer demand forecast you developed for the X52 power supply back in Assignment 1. They’ve asked for your assistance. Use this forecast: JAN THROUGH APRIL 2,700 per month; MAY THROUGH AUGUST 3,000 per month; SEPTEMBER THROUGH DECEMBER 3,300 per month. Lot sizes for X52 are 3,000 and to produce one X52, you need two units of 23A, one unit of 46B, and three units of 29C. You currently have 6,000 units of 23A in stock, 4,000 of 46B and 9,000 of 29C. Lead time to buy each of these three components is one month. Required Elements of the 12- Month Master Schedule: Use a spreadsheet or a template you develop to create a 12
  • 3. month master schedule. Make sure to include all requirements for each month. Explain in detail, using the data created by you and the course material, how you arrived at the schedule entries. Be sure to explain the logic applied to arrive at the conclusions drawn and support your logic with assigned course readings and videos. Required Formatting of MRP Schedule: Use the template format to create a MRP schedule. Make sure to complete all requirements for each month. Explain in detail, using the data created by you and the course material, how you arrived at the schedule entries. Be sure to explain the logic applied to arrive at the conclusions drawn and support your logic with assigned course readings and videos. Additional Requirements: The explanation of each part of the assignment must be doubled spaced and should be at least two pages in length. Third person writing is required. Third person means that there are no words such as “I, me, my, we, or us” (first person writing), nor is there use of “you or your” (second person writing). If uncertain how to write in the third person, view this link: http://www.quickanddirtytips.com/education/grammar/first- second-and-third-person ; Contractions are not used in business writing, so you are expected NOT to use contractions in writing this assignment; Use APA formatting for in-text citations and reference page. You are expected to paraphrase and not use quotes. Deductions will be taken when quotes are used and found to be unnecessary; The expectation is that you provide a robust use of the course resources. No books or outside references can be used. When using a source document, the expectation is that the information is cited and referenced with a page or paragraph number;
  • 4. Rubric Name: Master Schedule Criteria Excellent Good Developing Needs Improvement Failure Creation of 12 month master schedule 5 points Comments reflect a highly accomplished level of analysis, synthesis, evaluation and logical reasoning of the case material and case study facts resulting in an accurate, thorough, and soundly reasoned schedule. (4.5-5.0 4.25 points Comments reflect a thorough level of analysis, synthesis, evaluation and reasoning of the case material and case study facts resulting in accurately reasoned conclusions but may 1-2 areas which were underdeveloped. ( 4.0 - 4.49) 3.75 points Comments reflect a satisfactory level of analysis, synthesis, evaluation and reasoning of the case material and case study facts resulting in mostly correct conclusions and thereby showing 3-4 areas of inaccuracy or underdeveloped schedule entries. (3.5-3.99) 3.25 points An attempt was made but the comments reflect an unsatisfactory level of analysis, synthesis, evaluation and reasoning of the case material and case study facts, resulting in conclusions that are thereby showing 5 or areas of inaccuracy or underdeveloped schedule entries.
  • 5. (3.0-3.49) 0 points No attempt was made at the schedule or the inaccuracies or schedule entries reflect an unsatisfactory level of analysis, synthesis, evaluation and reasoning of the case material and case study facts, resulting in failure to draw little to no conclusions. (0-2.99) Detailed explanation as to how the schedule entries were concluded 5 points Presents exceptionally well-supported conclusions with evidence from the readings/case facts; application of the ideas was insightful and accurate (4.5-5.0) 4.25 points Presents thorough well-supported conclusions with evidence from the readings/case facts; application of the ideas was good but needed more detail in 1-2 entry conclusions. (4.0-4.49) 3.75 points Presents satisfactory arguments mostly supported conclusions with evidence from the readings/case facts; application of the ideas was good but needed more detail in 3-4 entry conclusions. (3.5-3.99) .25 points Arguments are frequently illogical and unsubstantiated; Limited use of facts in case study and essential information presented in course readings. More than 5 entries were without detail. (3.0-3.49)
  • 6. 0 points No or minimal attempt was made to explain the schedule attempted or arguments lack meaningful explanation or support of ideas. Does not provide facts presented in case study. (0-2.99) Attention to Instructions 2 points Demonstrates exceptional understanding of requirements responding completely to each aspect of assignment including minor aspects of the assignment such as using third person writing, required use of course readings, and assignment format. (1.8-2.0) 1.7 points Demonstrates excellent understanding of requirements; missed one minor aspect of assignment. (1.6-1.79) 1.5 points Demonstrates satisfactory understanding of requirements; missed a key element or two minor aspects of assignment. (1.4-1.59) 1.3 points Fails to show a firm understanding of requirements; missed two key elements or several minor aspects of assignment. (1.2-1.39) 0 points Fails to demonstrate understanding of assignment requirements. (0-1.19) Writing Mechanics 2 points Strictly adheres to standard usage rules of written English,
  • 7. including but not limited to capitalization, punctuation, run-on sentences, missing or extra words, stylistic errors, spelling and grammatical errors. No errors found. No contractions or jargon used. (1.8- 2.0) 1.7 points Excellently adheres to standard usage of mechanics: conventions of written English, including capitalization, punctuation, and spelling. One to three errors found. (1.6- 1.79) 1.5 points Satisfactorily adheres to standard usage rules of mechanics: conventions of English, including capitalization, punctuation, and spelling. Four to 10 errors found. (1.4- 1.59) 1.3 points Minimally adheres to standard usage rules of mechanics: conventions of written English, including capitalization, punctuation, and spelling. More than 10 errors found. (1.2-1.39) 0 points Does not adhere to standard usage rules of mechanics: conventions of written English largely incomprehensible; or errors are too plentiful to count. (0-1.19) Adherence to APA style (6th ed.) 1 point No APA style or usage errors; Proper citation of source material is used throughout paper; Reference titles follow APA with only the first word, the first word after a colon and proper nouns capitalized.
  • 8. (0.90-1.0) 0.85 points Attempts in-text citations and reference list but one or two APA style errors noted or fails to use APA citations when appropriate 1-2 times. (0.80-0.89) 0.75 points Attempts in-text citations and reference lists; APA style errors are noted throughout document; Fails to use APA citations when appropriate 3 times in document. (0.70-0.79) 0.65 points Attempts in-text citations and reference lists; Fails to use APA citation when appropriate 4-5 times; or presents only 1-2 in-text citations and reference list in a paper that requires APA citations throughout the document. (0.60-0.69) 0 points No attempt at APA style; or attempts either in-text citations or reference list but omits the other. (0-0.59) Resource Links: You must site only these resources. http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/mrp.html https://www.smartsheet.com/guide-to-material-requirements- planning http://www.columbia.edu/~gmg2/4000/pdf/lect_06.pdf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KEvHwvrkwbU https://www.slideshare.net/RajuPegada/capacity-requirement-
  • 9. planning-rough-cut-capacity-planning http://www.apicsforum.com/wiki/rough-cut_capacity_planning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFaA6mv1rvc http://www.statsoft.com/Textbook/Demand-Forecasting https://hbr.org/1988/07/four-steps-to-forecast-total-market- demand https://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/economic-forecasting/ http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/linreg.htm https://learn.umuc.edu/content/enforced/274494-001038-01- 2185-OL2- 6980/BMGT%20372%20UKY%20Forecast%20Example%202.pp t https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw3pmfsBjpg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaxpCw6lCe4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWvSnJ6rbsc http://www.lancer.com.tw/attachments/367_ErpBook(6).pdf http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/masprod.html https://www.wiley.com/legacy/college/reid/0470325046/supp_c h/suppd.pdf https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6sI1gp1X24 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iJ0NDUutXSc&t=33s Memo for Customer Qualitative Forecast MEMO To: Amanda Jones, Chief Executive Officer From: Date: 31 October 2019 Subject: Customer Qualitative Forecast. Ms. Amanda Jones, This memo is written to summarize the results of the forecasting activities done on the basis of the given data for the Jones Company. The explanation and the summary of the forecast is supported by an excel worksheet that is attached with the report
  • 10. which includes all the calculations of the forecasting activities. In this memo, the calculation and the logics are explained in a short summary. As five years demand data was available the next two years forecast was calculated on the basis of that data using a qualitative approach. The calculations were done using some assumptions. These assumptions are the following: It is assumed that the average of the opinions of the experts is equal to the results that are achieved from the quantitative forecasting and hence the outcome is considered as the overall forecasting results. In actual Executive Opinions Qualitative-Forecasting, the opinions of the experts are taken and then average is calculated but in this case the experts opinion is not available hence the average opinion is assumed as it matches the results and modification of the results from the quantitative results of the forecasting. The Linear regression forecast for the next 24 month is given in the second sheet in the attached excel file. The calculations were done on the basis of the following formula. . Forecasted demand = a + bx. Forecasting error was calculated using the following formula: Forecasting error = Actual demand – Forecasted demand RSFE = Initial forecast error + precedence forecast error MAD was calculated using the following formula: MAD = Tracking signals was calculated on the basis of the following formula: The calculations of the signal tracking show that the value of the signal tracking is between ± 3.75 and it the control limit. The result shows that the forecasting was done properly and is accurate. There is no indication that the forecasting is done on some biased assumptions. As the given accepted forecasting is
  • 11. 1.5, which is in the control limit of the results of signal tracking so there is no need to recalculate or update the demand forecast for the X52. 1 24-Month qualitative forecastYearDemand11292521726332251242876553164663730 5.4742199.8 Regression modelSUMMARY OUTPUTRegression StatisticsMultiple R0.70421R Square0.49592Adjusted R Square0.36990Standard Error216.90463Observations6ANOVAdfSSMSFSignificance FRegression1185142.85714185142.857143.935220.11829Residu al4188190.4761947047.61905Total5373333.33333CoefficientsS tandard Errort StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept2473.33333201.9272212.248640.000261912.693 483033.973181912.693483033.97318months102.8571451.85012 1.983740.11829-41.10188246.81617- 41.10188246.81617RESIDUAL OUTPUTObservationPredicted actual demandResiduals12576.19048- 76.1904822679.0476220.9523832781.90476218.0952442884.76 190-284.7619052987.61905212.3809563090.47619-90.47619 months Line Fit Plot actual demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 2500 2700 3000 2600 3200 3000 Predicted actual demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 2576.1904761904761 2679.0476190476193 2781.9047619047619 2884.761904761905 2987.6190476190477 3090.4761904761908 months actual demand Regression forecastMonthsActual demandForecast