The document appears to be a technical report summarizing population projections, water demand projections, and proposed groundwater regulatory scenarios for the Houston-Galveston region through 2080. It includes: 1) Population projections at the census tract and block levels through 2080 for Harris, Galveston, Fort Bend, Montgomery, and Brazoria counties developed with Metrostudy and UH Center for Public Policy. 2) Four proposed groundwater regulatory scenarios for Harris-Galveston and Fort Bend counties, including maintaining current plans or modifying required groundwater conversions in some areas. 3) Analysis of proposed scenarios using groundwater and subsidence models to evaluate impacts on subsidence.

2. 2
3 5
1 2 3
4
9
6 8
7
5
4
3
2 5
Subsidence: 1906-1978 1
Contour Interval: 1 ft

3. HGCSD 1992 Regulatory Plan Map
7 4 5
6
3 2
Area 1: 10% groundwater
Area 2: 20% groundwater
Area 3: 80% GW reduction by 1995 1
Area 4: 80% GW reduction by 2002
Area 5: 80% GW reduction by 2005
Area 6: 80% GW reduction by 2010
Area 7: 80% GW reduction by 2020

4. HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan Map
3
2
1

5. Key Elements - 1999 Regulatory Plan
Regulatory Areas & Conversion Requirements
Areas 1 & 2 - Converted
Area 1 GW reduced to 10% or less of TWD 3
Area 2 GW reduced to 20% or less of TWD
2
Area 3 1
Reduce GW pumpage by 30% by 2010
Reduce GW pumpage by 70% by 2020
Reduce GW pumpage by 80% by 2030
Exemptions: Agricultural Irrigation & Economic Hardships
GRPs were due in 2003: 4 main Area 3 GRPS
(Houston, NHCRWA, WHCRWA & CHCRWA)
Disincentive Fee currently set at $5.00 / 1,000 gallons

6. Major Area 3 Groundwater Reduction Plans (GRPs)
Regional Water Authorities and City of Houston
Central
North
West
Houston

8. Regional Groundwater Update
• Updates population and water demand
projections
• Recalibrates the parameters of the
groundwater and subsidence models
• HGSD/FBSD: Updated data and models to
evaluate the 1999 & 2003 Regulatory Plans
and make any necessary changes to the
regulations for the upcoming decades

9. Regional Groundwater Update
• Study Area: Harris, Galveston, Fort
Bend, Montgomery, and Brazoria Counties
• 5.8 million people in 2010 – nearly 25% of the
State’s population
• Science and data to evaluate and potentially
revise Regulatory Plans
• Regulations in study area drive the region’s
water supply strategies

10. Diverse Technical Team

11. Key Stakeholders
North Channel Water Authority
Central Harris County
Regional Water Authority

12. Reg Plan Update Project Components
STAKEHOLDER
INVOLVEMENT
Population and Subsidence Regulatory
Groundwater Scenarios and
Water Demand Model
Model Update Update Plan Update
Projections
TWDB & REGION H
COORDINATION

13. Regional Groundwater Update
• TWDB Coordination
– Project Participants and Team have met on
multiple occasions with TWDB Planning Division
and Groundwater Division Staff
– Team provides updates and presents technical
data
– TWDB has provided valuable data and feedback

14. Regional Groundwater Update
• TWDB Coordination: Region H / GMA 14
– Project’s County Population Projections to be
used in Region H
– Region H Water User Group (WUG) populations
will be based on Project’s data
– Project’s new Houston Area Groundwater Model
(HAGM) to become regional model for Region H
and Groundwater Management Area 14 (GMA 14)

15. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• Metrostudy
– Short term: 2010 – 2020 annual increments
– Quarterly housing surveys
– Knowledge of future housing development
– Considers regional economic outlook, quality of
schools, current and future transportation
planning, etc.
15

16. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• University of Houston Center for Public
Policy
– Long term: 2030 – 2070 decadal
– Models historical patterns in job creation and
employment sub-centers statistically
– Projects population based on long term
forecast of economic growth and number and
location of future jobs
16

17. POPULATION & DEMAND
PROJECTIONS
• Tract Level
Projections
– 1,039 tracts in 5
primary counties
17

18. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• Distributed to
Census Blocks
– H-GAC land use
data
– 114,200 blocks
in 5 primary
counties
18

19. POPULATION PROJECTIONS
• Other Boundary
Conditions used in
developing projections
– MUDs
– Cities
– Regional Water
Authorities
– Regulatory Boundaries
– Groundwater Model
Grids
19

20. 1 square mile grid

21. Regional Projection
Principal Counties: Brazoria, Ft Bend, Galveston, Harris, Montgomery
12,000,000
10,939,614
11,000,000
11,087,333
10,000,000 9,744,351
10,188,115
Population
9,000,000 8,577,632 9,357,916
7,804,376 8,627,807
8,000,000
6,934,871 7,635,834
7,000,000
5,738,055 6,674,886
6,000,000
5,738,055
5,000,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Year
RWP2011 TWDB ADJUSTED REGIONAL GW UPDATE
21

22. Harris County
7,000,000
6,272,346
6,000,000
5,974,068
5,000,000 4,707,870 5,376,099
4,092,459 5,058,144
4,000,000
3,400,578
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

23. Galveston County
500,000 465,193
447,126
450,000
403,820
400,000
343,570
350,000 377,373
291,309
300,000
250,158
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

24. Fort Bend County
2,000,000
1,755,164
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,259,307 1,583,782
1,400,000
1,200,000 1,095,123
1,000,000 881,966
800,000
585,375
600,000
354,452
400,000
200,000
0
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2035 2040 2050 2060 2070
1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

25. Montgomery County
2,500,000
1,946,063
2,000,000
1,576,135
1,500,000
1,267,916
1,019,278
1,000,000
811,252
627,917
455,746
500,000
293,768
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

26. Brazoria County
700,000
648,568
581,368
600,000
519,696
500,000 463,886
400,000 359,935 437,637
411,387
313,166
300,000
241,767
200,000
100,000
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
1995 HGSD RWP Adjusted 04-11 H-GAC Regional Groundwater Update

27. POPULATION BY HGSD REGULATORY AREA
4,000,000
3,528,168
3,500,000 3,382,481
3,233,836
3,076,529
2,905,158
3,000,000
2,710,303
2,401,086
2,500,000 2,250,944 2,259,472
2,122,327
1,986,120
2,000,000 1,848,040
1,702,190
1,566,279
1,500,000
1,000,000 749,774 779,391 808,575
639,326 682,429 717,406
566,921
500,000
-
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
HGSD_AREA_1 HGSD_AREA_2 HGSD_AREA_3

28. HGSD Area 3 Conversion
Scenarios
Scenario 1 30%
(No Conversion After 2010) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
30% 70% 80%
Scenario 2
(Current Regulatory Plans) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
30% 60% 80%
Scenario 3 2000 2010 2025
2020 20302035
2040 2050 2060 2070
30% 55% 80%
Scenario 4 2000 2010 2020 2030
2025 2040 2050 2060 2070

29. FBSD Area A Conversion
Comparisons
No Conversion assumed
Scenario 1
(No Conversion After 2010) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
30% 60%
Scenario 2
(Current Regulatory Plans) 2000 2010 2020 2030
2014 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070
Area A
30% 50% 65%
Scenario 3 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2014 2025 2035 2050 2060 2070
30% 50%
Scenario 4 2000 2010 2020 2030
2014 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070

30. FBSD Richmond/Rosenberg Sub-Area
Conversion Comparisons
30% 60%
Rich/Ros Sub-Area
Scenario 2
(Current Regulatory Plans) 2000 2010 2020 2030
2016 2025 2040 2050 2060 2070
30% 50% 65%
Scenario 3 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
2016 2025 2035 2050 2060 2070
30%
Scenario 4 2000 2010 2020 2030
2025 2040 2050 2060 2070

31. Scenario 1 - Growth Beyond 2010 on Groundwater
(No Additional Surface Water)
• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD)
– No increase in surface water supply beyond 2010 conversions.
– No assumed reductions in surface water supply and all future increases in water
demand are met with groundwater (Areas 1, 2, and 3).
– Does not include Area 3 2020 70% groundwater reductions or 2030 80%
groundwater reductions.
– Future growth beyond 2010 supplied by groundwater in Areas 1 and 2.
• Fort Bend County (FBSD)
– Assumes no conversions in 2014, 2016, or 2025. All future growth supplied with
groundwater.
• Montgomery County (LSGCD)
– No groundwater reductions in Montgomery County.
• Brazoria County (BCGCD)
– No groundwater reductions in Brazoria County.

32. (CI 1.0 ft)
SUBSIDENCE

33. Scenario 2 – Current Adopted Regulations
• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan)
– Area 1 = 90% conversion
– Area 2 = 80% conversion
– Area 3 = 30% conversion current to 2019
– Area 3 = 70% conversion 2020 to 2029
– Area 3 = 80% conversion 2030 and beyond
• Fort Bend County (FBSD 2003 Regulatory Plan)
– Area A = 30% conversion 2014 to 2024
– R/R Sub-Area = 30% conversion 2016 to 2024
– Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 60% conversion 2025 and beyond
– Area B remains on 100% groundwater.
• Montgomery County (LSGCD 2009 Regulatory Plan)
– 30% conversion in 2016 based on 2009 demands. Groundwater capped at 64,000 acre-feet per
year for 2017 and beyond.
• Brazoria County (BCGCD)
– No groundwater reduction regulations adopted in Brazoria County.

34. SUBSIDENCE

35. Revised Scenario 3 – Modifications to Current
Adopted Regulations
• Harris and Galveston Counties (HGSD 1999 Regulatory Plan)
– Area 1 = 90% conversion (same as Scenario 2)
– Area 2 = 80% conversion (same as Scenario 2)
– Area 3 = 30% conversion current to 2024
– Area 3 = 60% conversion 2025 to 2034
– Area 3 = 80% conversion 2035 and beyond
• Fort Bend County (FBSD 2003 Regulatory Plan)
– Area A = 30% conversion 2014 to 2024 (same as Scenario 2)
– R/R Sub-Area = 30% conversion 2016 to 2024 (same as Scenario 2)
– Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 50% conversion 2025 to 2034
– Area A and R/R Sub-Area = 65% conversion 2035 and beyond
– Area B remains on 100% groundwater (same as Scenario 2).
• Montgomery County (LSGCD 2009 Regulatory Plan)
– 30% conversion in 2016 based on 2009 demands. Groundwater capped at 64,000 acre-feet per year
for 2017 and beyond (same as Scenario 2).
• Brazoria County (BCGCD)
– Assume City of Pearland (including ETJ) converts to 50% surface water by 2016 and beyond.

36. SUBSIDENCE

37. CI: 25 feet

38. CI: 25 feet

39. CI: 25 feet

40. CI: 25 feet

41. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites

42. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in FBSD
Area A Area B R/R
Sub Area

43. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD
Area 1

44. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD
Area 2

45. Subsidence Model PRESS Sites in HGSD
Area 3

50. Key Stakeholder Testimony for 2013 Plan
• Change to the 2025 Conversion date
makes infrastructure construction
achievable
• Plans for completion of the Luces
Bayou Water Transfer will remain on
schedule with already existing
timetables

51. Key Stakeholder Testimony for 2013 Plan
• Change to the 2025 Conversion date
makes future conversion costs more
acceptable
• Results of changes outlined in Scenario
3 do not create significant impact on
future subsidence rates

52. Regulatory Plan
2013
Harris-Galveston
Subsidence District
1660 W. Bay Area Blvd.
Friendswood TX 77546
(281) 486-1105
www.subsidence.org

53. Key Elements – HGSD 2013 Regulatory Plan
• No change to Regulatory Area boundaries
• No change to Areas 1 & 2 Regulations
• Area 1 = 90% conversion
• Area 2 = 80% conversion
3
2
1

54. Key Elements – HGSD 2013 Regulatory Plan
• Area 3 Regulations Updated
• 30% conversion current to 2024
• 60% conversion 2025 to 2034
• 80% conversion 2035 and beyond
3
2
1

55. Disincentive Fee
Disincentive Fee changed from
$5.00 to $7.00 per 1,000 gallons

57. Land-surface subsidence (1915 through 1917) – 2001 determined by GIS techniques in Harris County, Texas
by Mark C. Kasmarek; 1906-2000 land-surface contours determined by Robert K. Gabrysch